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Week 1 Lines are Up

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Thanks TD.   I am a Heritage guy................


eg.

SO.....you're OFFERED BC at 2'......you turn it down > watch it cross 3.....bet it game week at Heritage at 4-5.......because Heritage is your buddy?
  *seems to me 5Dimes / BetOnline wants to be your buddy......a bit more

IF.....a serious INVESTOR......eggsplain this logic please ????

SWEAR TO GOD......1st time I catch you doing this I'm gonna start a thread ..."Is LHH.....actually Vegas Jason?"................... 
  *pause....while I explain why a slot receiver (that runs shorter routes)...might have a lesser yds/catch...than a WR that runs deeper routes........  


Dude, I can take the ribbing, but I am merely asking your opinion about BC v. NI...if you don't have an opinion, then that's fine.    And, yes, I know that I came across as "my book is Heritage, and your's is not", that was not my intention...And you guys know better, I am not VJ...
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Portland State was a surprise playoff team in 2015.  Ran the ball well on offense (10th in the nation or so).  Graduation hit hard, especially on defense.  A regression was expected in 2016.  Then..... Portland State had two players die unexpectedly in the offseason (1 apparent overdose and 1 due to complications from a surgery).  Also, another player's toddler son was killed (struck by a car).  This was a team that was emotionally on empty!  The defense played alot of new guys including true freshmen and jumped from allowing 22 ppg in 2015 to allowing 39 ppg in 2016.  For 2017 they should be improved to 6-5 or so (they do open with two FBS teams -- both will be losses).  2017 team returns 7 starts on both O & D.  The deepest position groups are the O-line (69 career starts return) and the Secondary.  WR could be a solid position too with last year's leading returnee Adams back from injury that cost him most of 2016.  The QB that was beat out two years ago by FBS transfer Alex Kuresa has played WR since then. If he does not start at QB (moved back this spring) he'll play WR again.  The front 7 on D needs to improve.  But one of their better DTs was only a FR last year and they did sign a JUCO LB to help.  I think they have enough back and a better mindset this year to stay within the #.

Another big reason I like Portland State has to do with BYU.  HC Sitake is a defensive guy who doesn't mind an ugly low scoring game (3-10 O/U in his 1st year).  I think Sitake is the type that would prefer to win 24-3 and physically manhandle the other team rather than win say 56-28.  Against a Big Sky opponent last year (Southern Utah), the score in the 2nd half was 6-0.  He did not run up the score.  And this year, is BYU really going to show their hand against Portland State with their ridiculous schedule the next 3 weeks (LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin).... I personally do not think so.  And BYU is breaking in new WRs which matches up somewhat favorably (relatively speaking) for the Portland State secondary which has plenty of returning experience.  I think the way this bet potentially goes south is if BYU gets a shutout, say, 35-0.  But I think it's going to be more like 31-10 ish.  BYU will get a solid win and move on to LSU.  Portland State will keep it within the number then move on to  .... Oregon State.  I actually think Oregon State beats them worse than BYU.  Tough for an FCS school to play two physical FBS teams back to back.




Lots of info ...Thank u very much
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:



Dude, I can take the ribbing, but I am merely asking your opinion about BC v. NI...if you don't have an opinion, then that's fine.    And, yes, I know that I came across as "my book is Heritage, and your's is not", that was not my intention...And you guys know better, I am not VJ...

VJ reference s not because you don't know what you're doing (necessarily)....but that you obviously.....don't 'get' most of what I'm telling you
  ie.     SHOPPING for lines is CRITICAL....meaning 2 things : multiple places to wager.....knowing WHEN to get the number you want.....you are STILL blind to this somehow > IT'S FUNNY......
  *has nuthin to do with Heritage wtf

  YOU.....thought / still thinking ol' VJ was legit.....should make you extremely nervous.....I pegged him DAY 1....and I'm an idiot (southern public school education / fine inbreeding).......
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #79
Vern,   Glad to hear your around.  Looks like things are heating up.

  For the uninitiated,  BigVern  and TD21 are easily the best FCS handicappers I know of on Covers.  I never fear the -120 lines when those guys are on a team.  

Stay Hard,   Doc
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


VJ reference s not because you don't know what you're doing (necessarily)....but that you obviously.....don't 'get' most of what I'm telling you
  ie.     SHOPPING for lines is CRITICAL....meaning 2 things : multiple places to wager.....knowing WHEN to get the number you want.....you are STILL blind to this somehow > IT'S FUNNY......
  *has nuthin to do with Heritage wtf

  YOU.....thought / still thinking ol' VJ was legit.....should make you extremely nervous.....I pegged him DAY 1....and I'm an idiot (southern public school education / fine inbreeding).......

Heritage is the only offshore that I trust, service, payouts, etc...I understand your general sentiment...look for value, based on technical considerations, bet against the public, because they rely too much on emotion (and are easily manipulated by touts, and other idiots.)   But, shouldn't fundamental analysis be integral as well...position by position, coaching, motivation, home field...I know you do stat research on that...I know "shopping for lines" is an important aspect of reducing risk, but that's just one of the tenants of successful capping, right?   
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #81
GOY plays:  so far - although I normally do not lock in very many GOY lines, will probably play a few more than usual this year. .... 2-0 last year.

9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)

Nothing big $ wise (0.5u each), just locking in a starting position.  May add to these later.



 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :


I was just thinking if that 2006 matchup would play any motivational factor for USC....  I can't imagine it would a lot, especially if USC skates by Stanford....   But I wouldn't mind hearing more opinions on the matter 

In L.A., yes we still talk about that game to this day.
 
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Posted: #83
Sorry, I misread where the Colo. St. game is being played.  Don't know how I got it wrong but for sure had it my head that game was at Oregon St.  I am a BTC. ( Baboon Throwing Crap )
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

GOY plays:  so far - although I normally do not lock in very many GOY lines, will probably play a few more than usual this year. .... 2-0 last year.

9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)

Nothing big $ wise (0.5u each), just locking in a starting position.  May add to these later.






Nice plays 


I am very close to creating a NORTHWESTERN TO WIN B1G WEST  Thread ...( HOPING FOR 8-1 or better , but Might just play in them in plenty GOY wagers) 
Avoids both Ohio St and Michigan from the East 


BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by QBoption:


In L.A., yes we still talk about that game to this day.

what POSITION do you play?......I'll be watching for your crazy azz

FANS sure......players actually on the FIELD?......not even remotely a factor
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #86
5D FCS vs. FBS lines are up!

Much earlier than usual (*not as prepared as I'd like to be) -- but locked in a few.  Low limits and lines jumping around already.

Texas Tech -7 hook
UAB -9.5
Kansas State -25.5
East Carolina +6

Also, finally found CSU vs. Colorado game at -110 (thanks Betonline).

Addded:  CSU +8.5 -110 (0.75u)


 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

5D FCS vs. FBS lines are up!


Texas Tech -7 hook .... a little more on TT at - 9.5  

 
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Posted: #88
First play locked in

WAKE FOREST -35 (-120). 1 unit play. 

PC has scored 20 total points in 6 games vs FBS opponents over the last 3 seasons. 

2014 vs NIU. LOSS 55-3
2014 vs NCST. LOSS 42-0
2014 vs Ole MISS. LOSS 48-0
2015 vs MIAMI OH. LOSS 26-7 
2016 vs Central Michigan. LOSS 49-3
2016 vs SOUTH ALABAMA. LOSS 31-7

I like where wake is headed offensively and believe this is a monumental talent disparity. Very likely PC scores 0, 3 or 7, and I'll make this bet believing wake is in the high 40s or 50s, not just at 42. 

Would also lean under or PC team total under but we will never see that offered. 
Until the wallet is full.
 
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Posted: #89
fine work TD.............................
   *wish I had gotten started MUCH sooner........difficult to believe 5Dimes is essentially (still) copying Massey's numbers.....this time not even bothering to shade +/- a point or so
  * why more aren't taking advantage?......like ME...is even more confusing.......later in the year his stuff is fairly close but not this early......gimme....Okie St  -8.....Georgia -3'...ND -4'.......Boise -6'....Nebraska -9'.....Texas -7'............... 
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #90
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s for a few conferences:  

These #s are more of a comprehensive / baseline set of #s used to know approximately what the line should be (essentially where my baseline #s would set the line).  The key is adjusting for the "spot", the "angle" (whatever word you want to use) to find plays.  Obviously the PR #s fluctuate throughout the season based on results.  But adjusting for the situation (spot or angle) and for the matchup is the key to successful capping IMO.  "One size" PR # does NOT "fit all" situations for two teams head to head in a given week.  The ability to adjust for things not necessarily already built into the line is the name of the game.

Pac 12:
USC  92.2
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
WSU  80.2
Utah  79.0
UCLA  79.0
Oregon  77.7
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

CUSA:
Western Kentucky  71.1
Louisiana Tech  69.6
Middle Tennessee  68.7
Texas San Antonio  63.6
Old Dominion  60.5
Southern Miss  59.3
Marshall  57.3
Florida International  56.5
North Texas  55.9
Florida Atlantic  52.1
Rice  50.2
UTEP  46.2
Charlotte  42.5

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State  71.1
Troy  69.4
Arkansas State  63.2
Georgia Southern  59.0
Louisiana Lafayette  *55.2
Idaho  55.2
Georgia State  54.6
Louisiana Monroe  54.2
Coastal Carolina  52.2
South Alabama  50.2
New Mexico State  48.1
Texas State  41.9

*assumes potentially suspended players remain on the team.
 
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Posted: #91
How could I forget UAB? ..... I don't think they'll be quite as bad as many people think.... IF they have any offense at all.  May be a good Under team.

Also, corrected a typo on the FAU #.

2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s for a few conferences:  

Pac 12:
USC  92.2
Washington  91.3
Stanford  84.8
WSU  80.2
Utah  79.0
UCLA  79.0
Oregon  77.7
Colorado  75.5
Oregon State  75.2
Arizona State  70.8
California  66.5
Arizona  66.0

CUSA:
Western Kentucky  71.1
Louisiana Tech  69.6
Middle Tennessee  68.7
Texas San Antonio  63.6
Old Dominion  60.5
Southern Miss  59.3
Marshall  57.3
Florida International  56.5
North Texas  55.9
Florida Atlantic  54.1
Rice  50.2
UAB  48.0
UTEP  46.2
Charlotte  42.5

Sun Belt:
Appalachian State  71.1
Troy  69.4
Arkansas State  63.2
Georgia Southern  59.0
Louisiana Lafayette  *55.2
Idaho  55.2
Georgia State  54.6
Louisiana Monroe  54.2
Coastal Carolina  52.2
South Alabama  50.2
New Mexico State  48.1
Texas State  41.9

*assumes potentially suspended players remain on the team.
 
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Posted: #92
THANK U VERY MUCH FOR PUTTING UP YOUR POWER RATINGS 
I
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

THANK U VERY MUCH FOR PUTTING UP YOUR POWER RATINGS 
I


I am behind where I want to be this time of year.  Slowly but surely catching up.  Trying to do a team per night as Connelly reviews come up and then as much as I can on weekends.  I'll try to put up the Big Ten and the MAC conferences in another couple weeks.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:



I am behind where I want to be this time of year.  Slowly but surely catching up.  Trying to do a team per night as Connelly reviews come up and then as much as I can on weekends.  I'll try to put up the Big Ten and the MAC conferences in another couple weeks.


Being behind or taking your time is really the way to go IMNHO .....

Years ago I used to Rush my Point Spread Ratings this time of year , often that led to a Horrible ( wagering)first month of the season ....

So much information to digest right now .....

Thanks again Brother , Really appreciate it 
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #95
thx for the list td. would be interesting to see how these are made, i dont see coastal carolkna being better than new mexico state especially not by 4 points.
 
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Posted: #96
Added to one of my original plays tonight.... didn't think we'd see +31.5 again in the Rutgers vs. UW game.

Week 1 card:

Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u)   (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -120 (0.5u) & Added +31.5 -110 (0.5u) -- 1u total
Colorado State +8.5  (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5  (0.5u)
UAB -9.5  (0.5u)
East Carolina  +6  (0.25u)

College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u)   8/26 vs. Chattanooga
**waiting to play WIU -- line is wrong, can't believe nobody has commented on this from day 1.


GOY plays:
9/9:  Auburn +6  (at Clemson)  (0.5u)
9/9:  Ohio State -7  (vs. Oklahoma)  (0.5u)
11/18:  Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota)  (0.5u)

 
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Posted: #97
5D finally has Regular Season Win Totals up for all teams.

Added:  Minnesota RSW Under 7.5 -140 (risking 2.8u to win 2u)

7-5 wins.... Like that!  Looks like a 6-6 team to me.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


what POSITION do you play?......I'll be watching for your crazy azz

FANS sure......players actually on the FIELD?......not even remotely a factor

What about the coaches who calls the plays?
what about the alumni who talk to the coaches and admin.
Being a Trojan is not just about the players, its more like a community
And who are u to challenge me? 
U dont know how it is over here!
U dont know the people i have talk to over the years.
U need to stay in  your lane on this topic bro.
 
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Posted: #99
And who are u to challenge me? ........
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by QBoption:


What about the coaches who calls the plays?
what about the alumni who talk to the coaches and admin.
Being a Trojan is not just about the players, its more like a community
And who are u to challenge me? 
U dont know how it is over here!
U dont know the people i have talk to over the years.
U need to stay in  your lane on this topic bro.

Unless you're suiting up, those "community" feelings don't matter at all.  
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