Week 1 Lines are Up

FAU  +17.....not a great spot for Navy usually.......

Rutgers  +31

Col St  +8    (GUB theory)

UTSA  +14'

????

Nevada +25

Georgia -14
Irish -13

Flashes +39'

Oreg St  +3 ??

Looks like a few guys at least considering dogs week 1.......

  *same knuckleheads looking for that EASY chalk $....LY fav were 18-22 ATS week 1.......< 20 12-16......20+  4-5......30+  2-1  

REMINDER:           'favorites' are NOT the play......but rather an offense so strong the defense will be helpless to stop 'em.....esp if combined with a strong D vs weaker O

  eg.  point-spread might be correct Georgia vs App St...but .I don't see how App St slows them down much.....don't see App St moving it much vs Georgia......Irish on deck maybe confuses the issue?

wassup TD.......................

18-22 ATS by faves seems relatively balanced...with two games going for the dog instead of the favorite implying equilibrium...I infer what you advocate...public with cash to lose betting their bankroll in week 1 on sexy faves...I see a few potential dogs in week 1 ie Rice, UTEP and Rutgers, that I like, but you know I won't play...;)    I think its about value...and perception v. reality...I also like Notre Dame in week 1 ATS...they are opening the renovated stadium against a Temple team that has had some recent success, but I perceive to be in rebuilding mode.   I also like Memphis -24 and Ok St -16.   I am staying away from my Longhorns at the current -20.  I wish it were closer to -14.       You will see a few select dogs from me this season.   GL.

I am off of Akron / Penn............Akrons "D" has the potential to be disastrous, worse than I originally thought while Penn ST will be very strong on "O".......Penn ST could score 50 here.....

 

good decision, akron sucks really bad. not saying they can't cover but there's so many better games to choose from. 

Rickey, what are we going to do with you?  …. No, I am not kidding.  Believe it or not, this is a game that has been on my radar since I started my offseason reviews / PR# adjustments, etc.  My Dad coached with guys on both the NIU and BC staff.  I follow both teams closely, probably more so NIU.   I understand it is not a sexy pick.  But to take 6 seconds and say “BC sucks, man” and that is your full analysis is lazy capping in my opinion.  Ironic that you’re the one telling me to “Do better”.  My record the last few seasons posting on here is outstanding and speaks for itself.  You can take it or leave with any information or plays I post.

 Yes, BC did not have the athletes to stay with Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State; average score a whopping 6 - 50.5.  BC sucks, move on, right?  ….. No.  Somewhat similar to the Rutgers discussion in another thread, the fact that BC was destroyed by these high end programs, only adds value for BC when they play teams of similar quality where they can matchup athletically.  My last iteration of 2016 PR#s shows BC game results with an ATS margin of +5.0 ppg vs. their other 9 opponents.  Right around -20 ppg ATS margin for those other 4 games.  Clearly a power rating # is not one size fits all.  Another topic there for another day if I ever find the time to expand on PR#s, ATS margins, and vs. whom (I typically do a breakdown by vs. top 50, vs. #51-100, vs. >#100).  Back to the play.  Let’s look at NIU.  The HC, OC, and DC are all the same guys that my Dad coached with in 2012.  Both coordinators left and came back last year.  NIU’s 2016 wins were against Ball State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan and Kent State.  When your best win is EMU, your program is heading in the wrong direction.

I cannot stress enough how important it is that QB Anthony Maddie did not get a 6^th year.  In case anyone missed it in their offseason updates, NIU expected to get a 6^th year medical redshirt for Maddie, but he was denied by the NCAA.  That announcement came this spring.  The remaining candidates to start at QB do not have the playmaking ability that QBs Hare or Maddie provided.  On top of that NIU loses its best WR (Kenny Golladay) and do not have a replacement on the roster with a similar skill set.  I think the NIU passing game will struggle in 2017.  The offense is going to try (even more so than usual) to be a run first team.  That relative strength for this offense does not match up well with BC as they were the #7 run D in the nation in 2016 at 108.5 ypg (*allowed 210.8 rushing ypg in the 4 big losses).  BC returns enough on each level of the defense to be solid again in 2017 vs. an opponent such as NIU.  BC DC Jimmy Reid has been a family friend since the mid-1980s.  He is an outstanding defensive coach that is not afraid to bring pressure (47 sacks in 2017—13 more than Don Brown’s 2016 BC defense).  Sidenote, Brown’s UM defense did have 46 sacks in 2016.  Anyway, similar style with bringing pressure on passing downs.   NIU lost LT Levon Myers to graduation.  Myers was a solid multi-year starter.   When he came in as a FR, Wisconsin did come on late in recruiting to try and convince him to stay home.  Whether or not a similar talent will replace him is an unknown for me, but I would not count on it.  Bottom line—I think the NIU offense will have trouble scoring on BC. 

I have yet to talk about when BC has the ball vs. NIU.  The NIU defense gave up 200 rushing ypg in 2016.  That figure was worse vs. non-conference opponents that could really run the ball.  NIU allowed 243, 293, and 278 rushing yards vs. Wyoming, USF, and San Diego State.  The 2016 front 7 was average at best is the point.  Combine that with NIU losing a high percentage of their front 7 depth, and I do not think they’ll slow down the BC running game enough to offset the BC defense vs. NIU offense matchup that favors BC.  Yes, the BC offense is less than impressive statistically, but they should have some success running the ball which is their M.O.  They will not need to score of ton of points to cover in this game.  I think it’s a relatively low scoring game.  BC low to mid 20s.  NIU, maybe 10-13 points, but even less certainly would not surprise me.

That’s it for now.  …. Try to be a positive asset to the forum.  And good luck this year.

TD

BA, LIFE in general is wassup.... Been pretty busy between work, coaching kids soccer and baseball teams.  Got off to a late start on the offseason football routine.... February through April free time was almost all dedicated to studying for the PE exam.  Found out last week I passed, so "I've got that going for me, which is nice".... in case this college football capping thing doesn't work out, something to fall back on.  

Thanks for dropping in so early in 2017!  My thoughts later, but a handful of the games you listed caught my attention as well. 

Looking forward to chatting with you in 2017.  As always, many thanks in advance for your weekly thread and lines.  Best thread on this forum IMO.

Hope you're doing well and take care.

Portland State +31 & again at +32 (at BYU)

Rutgers +31.5 (vs. Washington)

Took this a couple times in fact.  Massey Rating score predictions are out now.  (Some of) You know what to do!

TD,         Great to see you and BA posting early.  Of course it's never to early.

Like Jacksonville also.  I was going to post that might be the best play on the board and then you had to come out and say it 1st which moved the line up to -4.  You are the line mover.  Vegas probably has 1 guy that sits around 24-7 waiting for you to post.

What do you think about @Boise -11.5 / Troy?

Pecador,  Great to hear from you as well.  Hope everything is going well for you.  Thanks for always keeping me company in my threads from the beginning.

.....Not quite how it works, but I like you're theory.    Seeing -5 now.  Usually when I bet the College Extra, I hit refresh after 1 bet and it's moved and I go again.  Didn't happen this time.  Bet it a couple times.  Coulda/shoulda bet it even more because it was still available at the same number.  Then I posted and it looks like my brother Mr. DoubleUp and some others jumped on it as well.  Like he said, give credit to 5D for taking action this early.

I'm WAY behind.....same as LY.......wrote down in BLOOD.....that I was gonna stay up with BILL C (one team/day)......that lasted about 5 days............

  *don't have to take a freakin exam for PE man.......try any anti-depressant combined with Viagra / Cialis.....or order Priligy (dapoxetine) offshore........................

good man TD and all the best ............

good man LH................................

 *sorry to be so hard on you LY.....but you had it coming with that LONGHORN  ENTITLEMENT  RANT wtf............

Your path to wagering success is fairly easy........

  *and MANY others....so not directed just at you of course

1)   Stop listening to Covers advice

          * immediately after this ha

2)   TOUGHEST bet to win (maybe in all of sports???)

     *taking a CFB / NFL favorite LATE in the betting cycle......after the line has settled.....or (esp) closed

     $   notice this is how most everybody does it

   

         SO.......AX yourself.....do I wanna have fun / BS on Covers...pick up some cash here and there?.......OR take the next step and treat this as a side BUSINESS / steady income ?

  *I say this because you seem to take this VERY serious.....but yet make this stuff a lot tougher than it has to be > THEN get upset if you lose.................................   

     IF Walters was forced to bet ONLY favorites LATE in the week......he would struggle to CONSISTENTLY win 

3)   IF.....you choose the latter.......then:

           * be ready to bet when the lines come out

BUT......what this means......is that you

  *prepare a few weeks ahead.....you should already have Texas circled vs USC (off Tree) 9/16.....trust me Herman has it circled .....they are working on USC RIGHT NOW.....as this is a STATEMENT game for the program.....USC simply has to win (plus a loss here this early.... would not kill their shot at the play-off)    

  *take game notes all day Saturday.........OUCH

  *work most of Sunday as well.........slight ouch

      $  you can't enjoy games all weekend......check out the lines late Sunday / Monday......THEN start work

Best of luck this year buddy......GO HORNS.......

  *love that TH > wife ain't bad either for a white girl .....

since I highjacked TD's thread......guess I better add.......

  *this is how TD does it.....and he will NEVER lose $$....unless he gets careless and bets too much maybe

  $  maybe better said... he will rarely if ever drop below 55% or so

TD21 / BA,     Covers advice is toxic in most ways but I always get a consensus from you, TD, and maybe 3 others.  That way I have to reconsider my 1st thoughts and see things from several "smart guys"  point of view. Ya'll  have got me off some bad plays.  Hopefully can find 1 or 2 new guys this year who are serious, smart and sober players.  They're hard to find.

I like the TT's .  Instead of formulating a plan in 1 day (1 1/2 if you work all night) you have all week to figure things out. As I'm daily looking at the line moves I always ask myself what TT's on each game should be.  Lines seem much looser to me.  Eventually I have a plan going into Sat.

Hope you don't mind if I pick your brain every once in awhile.

Stay Hard,   Doc

Thanks for the advice.  Keep posting those value added links to good info!  Cheers and Hook em' LHH

I don't know about you gents, but I need some more BA!  Always entertaining and informative.  

F'cking hysterical, you're showing your age (and wisdom ) there big guy.  ......... tried that Cialis once.....if distant memory serves me correctly, the crazy b!tch stole some pills from where she worked.  Just what every testosterone filled 25 year male needs.  It got ugly from there for the young lady... Does this count as digressing yet!?

College football -- I'm caught up on reading Connelly.  Doesn't everyone here already know about Connelly.... I'd hope so .  Not caught update on my own work that I do after reading.  Off-season PR# adjustments, etc.  Trying to be more aware of Offense & Defense #s by quarter.  Also set up a lookup of new OCs with their former team's adjusted pace #s compared to new teams 2016 pace.  Same thing for DCs with havoc #s.  Helps with early season Totals.

And lately I've gotten pretty carried away with breaking down my final 2016 PR #s by strength of the opponent and ATS margin.  Examples later.  Some non Power 5 teams can't keep up with their best non-league opponents, but then are superior to most of their own conference.  The PR#s can't fit both cases without some adjustment.  The opposite is true also for other teams and their HC's style of play.  Keep it close vs. best non-conf opponents but then don't try to blowout bad teams.  Strong D, run based O that plays ball control.  Anyway, lots of interesting stuff there.  Just going through the process of looking at this has been very insightful.

gonna lay five dimes + on it...

too bad, so sad...

NOW GO GET UR SHOESHINE BOX>>>>>>

Sounds like a good plan.  Best of luck with your lock Rickey.