I appreciate all your inputs; this is what I was looking for. Currently, both my books have it at 10.5. IF you were me, would you buy the half point, or (since some of you feel they will win comfortably) not bother?
Also, do you think the line will go down or up?
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I appreciate all your inputs; this is what I was looking for. Currently, both my books have it at 10.5. IF you were me, would you buy the half point, or (since some of you feel they will win comfortably) not bother?
I bought the hook and took it down to -10. I never bet a game unless I think they will win by much more than the spread, but sometimes that can bite you. I bet Bama vs a&m earlier in the year and it was my biggest bet of the year. I got it at -8, when earlier in the week I could have got it at -7 (bad move by me). Of course it lost, even though it had no business being that close of a final score as it was.
So I bought it to -10 just in case this week, and most likely later in the week I will put more down on it. BOL to what you decide.
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I bought the hook and took it down to -10. I never bet a game unless I think they will win by much more than the spread, but sometimes that can bite you. I bet Bama vs a&m earlier in the year and it was my biggest bet of the year. I got it at -8, when earlier in the week I could have got it at -7 (bad move by me). Of course it lost, even though it had no business being that close of a final score as it was.
So I bought it to -10 just in case this week, and most likely later in the week I will put more down on it. BOL to what you decide.
My personal advice is to not bet it at all, it's a great type of game to watch without action, that's what I'm doing unless it dips way down (at that point I'd possibly consider Bama)
Jimmy knows Bama better than I do though & he says take Bama big (in other words)
I think we provided two choices for you, no bet at all (me) or Bama big (jimmy)
Let me know what you decide so I know what to cheer for
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Incog--
My personal advice is to not bet it at all, it's a great type of game to watch without action, that's what I'm doing unless it dips way down (at that point I'd possibly consider Bama)
Jimmy knows Bama better than I do though & he says take Bama big (in other words)
I think we provided two choices for you, no bet at all (me) or Bama big (jimmy)
Let me know what you decide so I know what to cheer for
Ya agree Wahoo. I never bet a game based on what others say. Do your own work and if you have a feel then go for it. Never wise to bet other peoples thoughts I believe. These are just opinions and sides that we are on.....just like there will be people that can make the case for taking Auburn in this game as well
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Ya agree Wahoo. I never bet a game based on what others say. Do your own work and if you have a feel then go for it. Never wise to bet other peoples thoughts I believe. These are just opinions and sides that we are on.....just like there will be people that can make the case for taking Auburn in this game as well
I go with only my thoughts 99% of the time, however, if a guy like jimmy says Bama big then I'm willing to look at it more because he typically knows his team & their tendencies
That's one of the good things about being on a forum, sometimes getting input from others can be beneficial
There are a handful of guys I'm willing to listen to & at least weigh their opinions (jimmy is one of them when it pertains to Alabama football)
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Hammer--
I go with only my thoughts 99% of the time, however, if a guy like jimmy says Bama big then I'm willing to look at it more because he typically knows his team & their tendencies
That's one of the good things about being on a forum, sometimes getting input from others can be beneficial
There are a handful of guys I'm willing to listen to & at least weigh their opinions (jimmy is one of them when it pertains to Alabama football)
Wahoos and Hammers, I do appreciate your feedback. As for the Bama-A&M game, I had 500 on bama at -8, and when it dipped to -7, I put another 1500 on it. At half, I jumped the gun and went downstairs to a bar in my building and took some celebratory shots...oh well.
At any rate, I do appreciate your input, and at this point, I am more inclined to go with Jimmy since I have made good money following his Bama picks over the last couple of years; he does seem to have a grasp of his teams capabilities (he was even spot on with the A&M game for the most part. Sometimes, you just are on the right side with the wrong result).
Wahoo's you will be missed next year, youre always a class act. Thanks for your input, and best of luck this week!
Wahoo's and Hammers, Happy Turkey day for you and your family!
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Wahoos and Hammers, I do appreciate your feedback. As for the Bama-A&M game, I had 500 on bama at -8, and when it dipped to -7, I put another 1500 on it. At half, I jumped the gun and went downstairs to a bar in my building and took some celebratory shots...oh well.
At any rate, I do appreciate your input, and at this point, I am more inclined to go with Jimmy since I have made good money following his Bama picks over the last couple of years; he does seem to have a grasp of his teams capabilities (he was even spot on with the A&M game for the most part. Sometimes, you just are on the right side with the wrong result).
Wahoo's you will be missed next year, youre always a class act. Thanks for your input, and best of luck this week!
Wahoo's and Hammers, Happy Turkey day for you and your family!
WahooS - Jimmy also said he would place a max bet on Bama vs. aTm & that this Bama team will be one of its most prolific offensively in history. My point: he knows the team better than pretty much anyone on the site, but it is a double edged sword, he is also an unapologetic homer (which I do not condemn him for).
My opinion FWIW, and I've followed Auburn more closely than any team in CFB and have known Gus for 25 years (thus I too am not unbiased) and have seen his teams from HS until today - Auburn is competitive in this game. They could even win it .... no play for a guy like you is the right play ...
GW
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WahooS - Jimmy also said he would place a max bet on Bama vs. aTm & that this Bama team will be one of its most prolific offensively in history. My point: he knows the team better than pretty much anyone on the site, but it is a double edged sword, he is also an unapologetic homer (which I do not condemn him for).
My opinion FWIW, and I've followed Auburn more closely than any team in CFB and have known Gus for 25 years (thus I too am not unbiased) and have seen his teams from HS until today - Auburn is competitive in this game. They could even win it .... no play for a guy like you is the right play ...
Saban is 6-5 overall against Auburn as a head coach. 0-5 against an Auburn team that finishes the season with at least 9 wins. I heard the line opened at -15 & got bet down to -10.5.
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Saban is 6-5 overall against Auburn as a head coach. 0-5 against an Auburn team that finishes the season with at least 9 wins. I heard the line opened at -15 & got bet down to -10.5.
I don't disagree with any of that, like I said, Auburn appears one-dimensional to me & their defense needs alot of work, I had this number at 12 in my numbers but if it goes below 10 I'd possibly consider it but not sure, it would be much easier knowing you're going to "max" bet the Tide, haha
Happy Thanksgiving bro
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
Jimmy,
I don't disagree with any of that, like I said, Auburn appears one-dimensional to me & their defense needs alot of work, I had this number at 12 in my numbers but if it goes below 10 I'd possibly consider it but not sure, it would be much easier knowing you're going to "max" bet the Tide, haha
Give saban extra time to prepare for a one trick poney and its bama all day for me. On the other side of the ball aub defense is suspect imo. Bama should be able to do what it wants offensively.
I agree. I think it's pretty much a lock that Alabama gets into the 40s.
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Quote Originally Posted by abizzo24:
Give saban extra time to prepare for a one trick poney and its bama all day for me. On the other side of the ball aub defense is suspect imo. Bama should be able to do what it wants offensively.
I agree. I think it's pretty much a lock that Alabama gets into the 40s.
I'm excited about the game, I like creative offenses & different schemes like Auburn, Baylor, Oregon, etc. so I'm cheering for Gus, if he can beat Saban this season in that game he would become a living legend at Auburn, I don't know if they can do it without a successful passing attack (if Marsh can sling it some to open up the run then they have a shot) but I don't see them running all game & beating Bama unless they have the benefit of turnovers
It will be interesting, all I do know is I couldn't bet against Bama with only 10 points, I'd rather pick another battle
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Duly noted GW :)
I'm excited about the game, I like creative offenses & different schemes like Auburn, Baylor, Oregon, etc. so I'm cheering for Gus, if he can beat Saban this season in that game he would become a living legend at Auburn, I don't know if they can do it without a successful passing attack (if Marsh can sling it some to open up the run then they have a shot) but I don't see them running all game & beating Bama unless they have the benefit of turnovers
It will be interesting, all I do know is I couldn't bet against Bama with only 10 points, I'd rather pick another battle
First, I appreciate the mention in the thread. For my 1st year hanging out with you freaks, it's been fun.
As for the game....I rarely look weeks ahead to a game I'm gonna bet, but I've had a game for this week and next week ready. This week: Bama. Next week: Baylor
I basically agree with about everything that Jimmy says. The bottom line is that Auburn hasn't shown they can throw the ball, and going against Bama one-dimensional isn't good. If there is a weak spot on the Bama team, I'd say it's their secondary, and it's certainly not their front 7. So this just spells a bad match up for the Tigers. On the other side I don't think Bama will have much problem moving the ball and putting up points. I also agree that Auburn's offensive and defensive lines have been the key to their success, but I don't think they are going to be able to match up with what Bama will put on the field.
Auburn having last week off doesn't mean anything IMO. Auburn with 2 weeks to prepare, Bama with 2 or maybe possibly 3 weeks to prepare (who knows how much they put into miss st).
As for home field, I don't think it will play much of a role. The only times I think it will play are early in the game, and/or late in the game if Auburn is still close (which I don't plan on happening).
Home field can be a tricky thing.....Example: last week I had a big bet on Okla St against Baylor & the ML. A part of this bet was okla St's home field. Baylor is young in the fact they haven't had this level of success, they had never played on prime time national tv with GameDay on set in a hostile environment....and I certainly think that played a role in their performance. That loss will be a good thing for Baylor in the future, and they will learn from the experience (and ues I still plan on nailing Baylor next week), but that situation doesn't apply to Bama this week. Bama has been in much bigger situations than this, as they are still a fairly veteran team. So as I'm sure the home field may play some role, I don't expect it to play a big role.
Bottom line I really like where Auburn is going, and they have far exceeded my expectations, but this game is not a good match up for them. I expected the line to be around 13-14....I actually think this is the first time maybe all year that the oddsmakers are giving Auburn credit and respect. With that said, I'm already on the game @ -10 and would feel very comfortable all the way up to 2 TD's. I'd guess a 34-13 type score
I agree with pretty much agree with everything you said, but disagree slightly with the highlighted portion above. Alabama has the best safety tandem in the country. Both Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Landon Collins are NFL 1st round locks when they enter the draft. It would be more accurate to say that Alabama's weakest link on the defensive side of the ball are the "corners," not the "secondary" as a whole. This will be the first time in the last few years that Alabama won't have a corner drafted in the 1st round.
Insofar as the corners are concerned, it's really not an issue of talent. The problem is youth and inexperience. As per usual, Auburn will have no success running the ball against Alabama, so the only real shot they have to keep the game competitive is to consistently make plays in the passing game. Thus it is an imperative for Auburn that Sammie Coates have success exploiting the Alabama corners. I actually think Coates will have some success doing that, but without a running game I don't think it will be nearly enough to keep them in the game.
HFA will only be an advantage if Auburn can keep the game competitive. The longer they can do that, the more HFA will be an advantage for them. I anticipate the outcome of this game being decided pretty early, so I personally agree with you that HFA will largely be a non-factor.
I also don't think Auburn has much of a shot of holding Alabama under 40 points, so if you give Alabama credit for another touchdown, I think your score prediction will be very close.
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Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:
First, I appreciate the mention in the thread. For my 1st year hanging out with you freaks, it's been fun.
As for the game....I rarely look weeks ahead to a game I'm gonna bet, but I've had a game for this week and next week ready. This week: Bama. Next week: Baylor
I basically agree with about everything that Jimmy says. The bottom line is that Auburn hasn't shown they can throw the ball, and going against Bama one-dimensional isn't good. If there is a weak spot on the Bama team, I'd say it's their secondary, and it's certainly not their front 7. So this just spells a bad match up for the Tigers. On the other side I don't think Bama will have much problem moving the ball and putting up points. I also agree that Auburn's offensive and defensive lines have been the key to their success, but I don't think they are going to be able to match up with what Bama will put on the field.
Auburn having last week off doesn't mean anything IMO. Auburn with 2 weeks to prepare, Bama with 2 or maybe possibly 3 weeks to prepare (who knows how much they put into miss st).
As for home field, I don't think it will play much of a role. The only times I think it will play are early in the game, and/or late in the game if Auburn is still close (which I don't plan on happening).
Home field can be a tricky thing.....Example: last week I had a big bet on Okla St against Baylor & the ML. A part of this bet was okla St's home field. Baylor is young in the fact they haven't had this level of success, they had never played on prime time national tv with GameDay on set in a hostile environment....and I certainly think that played a role in their performance. That loss will be a good thing for Baylor in the future, and they will learn from the experience (and ues I still plan on nailing Baylor next week), but that situation doesn't apply to Bama this week. Bama has been in much bigger situations than this, as they are still a fairly veteran team. So as I'm sure the home field may play some role, I don't expect it to play a big role.
Bottom line I really like where Auburn is going, and they have far exceeded my expectations, but this game is not a good match up for them. I expected the line to be around 13-14....I actually think this is the first time maybe all year that the oddsmakers are giving Auburn credit and respect. With that said, I'm already on the game @ -10 and would feel very comfortable all the way up to 2 TD's. I'd guess a 34-13 type score
I agree with pretty much agree with everything you said, but disagree slightly with the highlighted portion above. Alabama has the best safety tandem in the country. Both Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Landon Collins are NFL 1st round locks when they enter the draft. It would be more accurate to say that Alabama's weakest link on the defensive side of the ball are the "corners," not the "secondary" as a whole. This will be the first time in the last few years that Alabama won't have a corner drafted in the 1st round.
Insofar as the corners are concerned, it's really not an issue of talent. The problem is youth and inexperience. As per usual, Auburn will have no success running the ball against Alabama, so the only real shot they have to keep the game competitive is to consistently make plays in the passing game. Thus it is an imperative for Auburn that Sammie Coates have success exploiting the Alabama corners. I actually think Coates will have some success doing that, but without a running game I don't think it will be nearly enough to keep them in the game.
HFA will only be an advantage if Auburn can keep the game competitive. The longer they can do that, the more HFA will be an advantage for them. I anticipate the outcome of this game being decided pretty early, so I personally agree with you that HFA will largely be a non-factor.
I also don't think Auburn has much of a shot of holding Alabama under 40 points, so if you give Alabama credit for another touchdown, I think your score prediction will be very close.
And one last point that I forgot to mention.....I don't think when analyzing this game that it will do anyone any good trying to compare auburns offense to a&m (since a&m is the only team that has had tremendous amount of success against Bama d). One reason being that a&m has Manziel (and Mike Evans).....auburn doesn't. There has been nothing to make anyone think Marshall can pass the ball like Manziel, or that Marshall can make the plays in the passing game when constant pressure is on. This is just going based on what my eyes have seen this year.
Also, I think Bama is a much better team then they were in week 2 of the year. I think it's difficult, and probably not smart to break down a big game and cap based on what happened in weeks 1 or 2 or 3 of the season
As you point out, the Texas A&M and Auburn games are apples and oranges. There really is not a single common thread between these two games, and placing a bet on Auburn based on what transpired in the A&M is pure foolishness.
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Quote Originally Posted by HammersSpreads:
And one last point that I forgot to mention.....I don't think when analyzing this game that it will do anyone any good trying to compare auburns offense to a&m (since a&m is the only team that has had tremendous amount of success against Bama d). One reason being that a&m has Manziel (and Mike Evans).....auburn doesn't. There has been nothing to make anyone think Marshall can pass the ball like Manziel, or that Marshall can make the plays in the passing game when constant pressure is on. This is just going based on what my eyes have seen this year.
Also, I think Bama is a much better team then they were in week 2 of the year. I think it's difficult, and probably not smart to break down a big game and cap based on what happened in weeks 1 or 2 or 3 of the season
As you point out, the Texas A&M and Auburn games are apples and oranges. There really is not a single common thread between these two games, and placing a bet on Auburn based on what transpired in the A&M is pure foolishness.
Totally agree about Bama's safety's vs their corners. I kinda just grouped them as a whole when saying that if there is something another team could exploit, but I still don't think Auburn will have much luck doing that. Even if Bama's corners are down a notch from normal, they are still corners that could start on most college teams. Regardless, teams would have better luck exploiting Bama's corners then they would running the ball if they have a chance to win IMO.
I like Ha Ha's play on the field almost as much as I like his name. I have liked Landon Collins every since his mom went wild on national TV
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Totally agree about Bama's safety's vs their corners. I kinda just grouped them as a whole when saying that if there is something another team could exploit, but I still don't think Auburn will have much luck doing that. Even if Bama's corners are down a notch from normal, they are still corners that could start on most college teams. Regardless, teams would have better luck exploiting Bama's corners then they would running the ball if they have a chance to win IMO.
I like Ha Ha's play on the field almost as much as I like his name. I have liked Landon Collins every since his mom went wild on national TV
WahooS - Jimmy also said he would place a max bet on Bama vs. aTm & that this Bama team will be one of its most prolific offensively in history. My point: he knows the team better than pretty much anyone on the site, but it is a double edged sword, he is also an unapologetic homer (which I do not condemn him for).
My opinion FWIW, and I've followed Auburn more closely than any team in CFB and have known Gus for 25 years (thus I too am not unbiased) and have seen his teams from HS until today - Auburn is competitive in this game. They could even win it .... no play for a guy like you is the right play ...
GW
I bought the hook on the Texas A&M game, so I was actually quite fortunate to cash my bet. I debated for quite sometime whether I was going to tie up extra money buying the line down to 6.5 because it was a significant sum of cash, but I ended up making the right choice by playing it safe. I would have been absolutely sick over a push had I not done so.
I understand you being excited about your team and the upcoming game. Regardless of the outcome of the game, congratulations on a fantastic season. I will add two things however. #1 the Texas A&M will have zero bearing on the outcome of this game. #2 you do want you want, but I highly recommend you sit this one out and watch the game as a fan only.
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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:
WahooS - Jimmy also said he would place a max bet on Bama vs. aTm & that this Bama team will be one of its most prolific offensively in history. My point: he knows the team better than pretty much anyone on the site, but it is a double edged sword, he is also an unapologetic homer (which I do not condemn him for).
My opinion FWIW, and I've followed Auburn more closely than any team in CFB and have known Gus for 25 years (thus I too am not unbiased) and have seen his teams from HS until today - Auburn is competitive in this game. They could even win it .... no play for a guy like you is the right play ...
GW
I bought the hook on the Texas A&M game, so I was actually quite fortunate to cash my bet. I debated for quite sometime whether I was going to tie up extra money buying the line down to 6.5 because it was a significant sum of cash, but I ended up making the right choice by playing it safe. I would have been absolutely sick over a push had I not done so.
I understand you being excited about your team and the upcoming game. Regardless of the outcome of the game, congratulations on a fantastic season. I will add two things however. #1 the Texas A&M will have zero bearing on the outcome of this game. #2 you do want you want, but I highly recommend you sit this one out and watch the game as a fan only.
I appreciate all your inputs; this is what I was looking for. Currently, both my books have it at 10.5. IF you were me, would you buy the half point, or (since some of you feel they will win comfortably) not bother?
Also, do you think the line will go down or up?
I honestly wouldn't be too concerned about buying points.
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Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:
I appreciate all your inputs; this is what I was looking for. Currently, both my books have it at 10.5. IF you were me, would you buy the half point, or (since some of you feel they will win comfortably) not bother?
Also, do you think the line will go down or up?
I honestly wouldn't be too concerned about buying points.
some of you keep mentioning the last second win vs miss st:
that was early in the year when auburn was still finding their way with a new coach and new qb, and yet they found a way to beat a serviceable sec team
some of you keep mentioning the lucky tipped pass vs georgia:
fair enough, it was very fortunate, but even if they lost that's a very, very good georgia team even with the injuries, georgia has moved the ball on everyone they've played, everyone, so i give credit to aub for even being in the game,
some of you look at those games as fortunate, but there is another way to look at them which is the positive side that auburn took care of business.
you don't stay in this gm for 32 yrs and have profit to show for it unless you look at things from all angles
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some of you keep mentioning the last second win vs miss st:
that was early in the year when auburn was still finding their way with a new coach and new qb, and yet they found a way to beat a serviceable sec team
some of you keep mentioning the lucky tipped pass vs georgia:
fair enough, it was very fortunate, but even if they lost that's a very, very good georgia team even with the injuries, georgia has moved the ball on everyone they've played, everyone, so i give credit to aub for even being in the game,
some of you look at those games as fortunate, but there is another way to look at them which is the positive side that auburn took care of business.
you don't stay in this gm for 32 yrs and have profit to show for it unless you look at things from all angles
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