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UGA = Sucker Bet Of the Year So Far

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Posts: 46

axel360

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 128

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 11:33 AM ET #26

The line has shifted 8.5 points in two weeks.

That is a pretty massive shift. Probably a tad too much.

I'd probably take the 6 points. And if the line ever gets to 7, jump all over SC.

bk1374

Captain

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 7891

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 11:45 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Preseason line was South Carolina -3

Now it's UGA -6

All because USC got beat on national TV first game of the year while UGA beat a depleted Clemson at home. Perception. And why was the USC loss seen as so bad? Because the perception of TAM was off.

One of the top public bets of the week

You peasants living week-to-week with no foresight

You people on UGA are such fukin clowns you realize you are giving away 9 points because of flawed perception, in an SEC rivalry game on the road

This spread is guaranteed to close well below +6. Value city.

I love you all though. Wouldn't be able to pull off robberies like this without you

Because they couldn't rush the passer, cover receivers or tackle.

I get that value is gone now since UGA was +3, but those taking them now had to sell that value for the luxury of watching the first two weeks of games.

If South Carolina has figured things out, or if Georgia was not as good as looked vs. Clemson, then I'll lose my wager. For me, it's nothing close to a sure thing, but it's a game I like.

BOL either way............

lordzud

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 2349

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 1:19 PM ET #28

I don't know why I'm a sucker for emphasizing the two games South Carolina has played and the one game Georgia has played this year rather than what was predicted before the season starts. Each season in college football there are very big surprises due to some highly rated teams flopping and other teams doing far better than predicted. You aren't a sucker to predict this but a realist because it happens every year. South Carolina has a load of 4 and 5 star talent, they are playing at home, and they certainly could cover the spread. But I'll take Georgia, they have had two weeks to prepare for this game and I was completely unimpressed with how South Carolina played their first two games. Nobody is a sucker and nobody is a gambling genius. I like Georgia in this spot and you like South Carolina. We can disagree and respect each others opinion.

saltliferooster

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 13

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 1:29 PM ET #29

My line has dropped to 5.5 in the last two hours. Looks like money is headed toward USC.

Pipe-Light

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 2587

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 1:36 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by gmanusc2001:

Gamecocks defense, while horrible, actually matches up better against UGA than A&M or ECU.
I knew I was gonna be on SC here in the first half of the A&M game.
-
The SC o-line played much, much better last week and Thompson found a connection with we Shaw Roland who was a ghost in the first game......
We have a top 10 talent team with a living legend coach at home, with their season on the line.......I'll take the points here along with a ML bet.
Value here is off the charts.

Then again, they may get blown out! Ha!

I love football!

_6 is a large number and I have t get on the Sc bandwagon... Geprgia was playing a weak Clemson team. Not weak in comparison to all teams, but to their past. Dont want to offend any Carolina folk....

Expect it to be close and Georgia will come in ready... 26 -24 "sombody...

Zander47

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Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 2859

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 5:58 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

Sabanade... your post doesn't offer up any information that wasn't already known. The point is, 1 game from each team has now shifted that line by 10 points, and based on past history, that kind of swing is based far more on over-reaction than it is on reality...

3 Weeks ago people were putting So Carolina in the Final 4... now suddenly they are dog garbage because they lost 1 game? Come on!

There is no way that shift is justified, and the more people I see on Georgia, the more I am convinced they will be throwing garbage at their TV on Saturday...

Good luck! But this looks like the prototypical covers bloodbath game of the week!

Hasnt SC lost some talent ( more than just Clowney ?) I agree on +6 or nothing in this spot. Anybody who said SC to the final 4 isn't paying attention though. They disappoint every damn year when we think they could win the SEC East and possibly be national championship contenders.

Chuck51

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 502

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 7:37 PM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

No such thing as sucker bets, just people that dont know what they are talking about and assume the linemakers are "trapping them". Nothing wrong with grabbing the home dog here at +6, but if you are basing it off the assuption you are getting value becauae the line is 9 points off the preseason line, then your logic is flawed.

Oh so true. It took me several years to learn that. Lines are set and then move depending on the money and/or other factors such as mid-week injury reports.

TrebIecyde

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 409

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 7:45 PM ET #33

UGA = 2-0 ATS

Shark_Attack

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2014

Posts: 1587

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 8:47 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Zander47:

Hasnt SC lost some talent ( more than just Clowney ?) I agree on +6 or nothing in this spot. Anybody who said SC to the final 4 isn't paying attention though. They disappoint every damn year when we think they could win the SEC East and possibly be national championship contenders.

I agree with you! I wasn't onboard with the pre-season hype, and pointed out that they lost their offensive and defensive leaders, and that Connor Shaw single-handedly won at least 2 games for them last year... so yes, anyone who thought this team was a contender to win the SEC were not paying attention.

But I feel like Georgia falls into that category to a lesser extent also... they are regularly over-hyped and underachieving, and they also lost their offensive leader in Murray...

Just think it's asking a lot to expect Georgia to waltz into SC and beat a team that is in a must-win scenario at this point, and who will undoubtedly play better than they did against A&M...

Personally, I haven't bet this game and probably won't... I originally thought about Georgia if the number was right, but all of the one-sided love and inflated line have made it a no-play for me... sometimes not betting a game is a kind of bet, as well!

mightiestmojo

Captain

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 6735

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 8:59 PM ET #35

SC has been very unimpressive in two games to me. Yes, GA only has one game under their belt but they looked really good against a pretty good, in my opinion, team. I could see GA rolling them. This is a huge game and they've had an extra week to prepare.

TrebIecyde

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 409

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 9:09 PM ET #36

I put small money on UGA -6 on the road. Never put big dough on an intense rivalry matchup. Beating UGA would make USC's season, and the way their defense plays against a high-powered spread is light and dead opposed to the boring, pro-set scheme like UGA utilizes. Would not be surprised if either team gets blown out.

The_Intimidator

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 120

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 9:16 PM ET #37

Smells like a game you pretend is not even on the board

Take My boy Bryce Petty and them Bears..then go have yourself a Friday night!

jpurdy2

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 473

Posted: Sep. 9, 2014 - 9:44 PM ET #38

I agree with multiple ppl on this thread, I used to buy into the whole "2 weeks too prepare" concept but I have faded that notion. In SC's first game nobody gave A&M a chance without Johnny Football, but they kept delivering knockout punch after knockout punch. UGA beat a depleted Clemson team that lost a boat load of offensive fire power as someone else mentioned. ECU had its way with SC until late from my understanding, didnt see the game but followed it on my score tracker app. ECU and A&M both run similar offenses that gave SC fits; SC's defense, IMO, isn't suited well against the run and run offenses, however they were built primarily to defend your typical SEC offenses, not the new age offenses.

My play here is gonna be a parlay with SC+6 and the SC ML, a small all or nothing play.

BOL Gentleman.

Zander47

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2010

Posts: 2859

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 5:15 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:

But I feel like Georgia falls into that category to a lesser extent also... they are regularly over-hyped and underachieving, and they also lost their offensive leader in Murray...

Just think it's asking a lot to expect Georgia to waltz into SC and beat a team that is in a must-win scenario at this point, and who will undoubtedly play better than they did against A&M...

Yuppers, agree with everything you said. UGA and SC mirror each other in many regards season after season ironically. I expect it to be close, like these teams typically play each other

JP13

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Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 1576

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 9:16 AM ET #40

Yes, SC has played 2 games this year....They couldn't even cover the spread @ home to a lowly ECU team. I realized they will play this game stronger.....but @ -5.5......

GIVE ME THOSE DAWGS ALL DAY LONG!!!

Chuck51

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 502

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 2:25 PM ET #41

I expect this game to be CLOSE.

Macwestie1

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 171352

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 4:01 PM ET #42

3 Weeks ago people were putting So Carolina in the Final 4... now suddenly they are dog garbage because they lost 1 game? Come on!

There is no way that shift is justified, and the more people I see on Georgia, the more I am convinced they will be throwing garbage at their TV on Saturday...

Good luck! But this looks like the prototypical covers bloodbath game of the week!

Bingo!!! well said! Shark

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!

USC1969

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 129

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 4:14 PM ET #43

Please don't call them USC.

Try S.C.

Matt2688

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Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 1089

Posted: Sep. 10, 2014 - 4:25 PM ET #44

Agree it's a red flag game, but South Carolina is absolutely terrible all over the field. I couldn't believe what I was watching, they got dismantled at HOME in week one in the primetime game. They've always been overrated and I believe this should be like a 16 point spread.

It's like -6 is too good to be true, but I'm high on Georgia this season and believe they win by 20+ so I'm not gonna think too much about this one and just go with what my eyes saw in week one. Georgia in a rout don't read too deep into the line movement on this game.... It's college and there's been ONE game, of course preseason lines were horribly predicted, and only 6 is still way too low, SC sucks.