Too many points.

The Wednesday night MACtion matchup between Central Michigan and Kent State might not look particularly compelling on paper, but a closer examination reveals one of the more intriguing betting opportunities of the week. The Chippewas roll into Kent as favorites in the 8.5 to 9.5 point range, but the underlying numbers suggest the Golden Flashes are being seriously undervalued in this spot.

Central Michigan comes in at 6-4 overall and 4-2 in conference play, having already punched their ticket to bowl eligibility under first year head coach Matt Drinkall. The Chippewas have won three of their last four games and sit in second place in the Mid-American Conference standings. On the surface, everything points to a comfortable road victory for the visitors.

Kent State enters at 4-6 and 3-3 in the MAC, still fighting for their postseason lives. The Golden Flashes need to win their final two games to reach bowl eligibility, which would represent a stunning turnaround for a program that went 1-23 over the previous two seasons under former coach Kenni Burns. In those two disastrous campaigns, Kent State went a combined 0-16 in conference play.

The coaching change to Mark Carney has made an immediate impact. The Golden Flashes have already won three MAC games this season, and more importantly, they are finding ways to stay competitive. Kent State sits at 3-1 against the spread at home this season, consistently keeping games closer than the betting market expects at Dix Stadium.

The elephant in the room is Central Michigan's performance as a road favorite. The Chippewas have failed to cover the spread in 19 of their last 20 road games when favored by 9.5 points or more. That's a staggering 95 percent failure rate in this specific spot. Even more recently, Central Michigan hasn't covered a 9.5 point road spread in nine of their last 10 attempts.

Meanwhile, Kent State has covered a 9.5 point home spread in 13 of their last 20 games at Dix Stadium. The Golden Flashes have also covered in four consecutive home games this season. The trends could hardly be more clear.

The transformation of Kent State's offense has been remarkable. Redshirt freshman quarterback Dru DeShields has been a revelation, throwing for 16 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season. His breakout performance came last Tuesday night in the rivalry game against Akron, where he threw for a career high 317 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-35 overtime victory. Those five touchdown passes were the most by a Kent State quarterback since Josh Cribbs threw five at UCF back in 2004.

DeShields has completed a pass exceeding 35 yards in all eight of his starts this season, including three touchdown strikes of 75 yards or longer. The sophomore has developed excellent chemistry with big play threats Cade Wolford and Ardell Banks, both of whom average over 20 yards per reception. Kent State showed in the Akron game that they can score quickly and in bunches when DeShields gets rolling.

The defensive numbers for Kent State look brutal at first glance, but context matters. The Golden Flashes got absolutely demolished by their three Power Four opponents, losing to Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma by a combined score that inflated their season statistics. In MAC play, however, the defense has been far more respectable. Kent State has held three of their last four MAC opponents to 21 points or fewer, showing they can compete when facing conference level talent.

Central Michigan does present significant challenges. The Chippewas rank 36th in the nation in offensive EPA per dropback, while Kent State ranks 126th defensively in that same metric. Quarterback Joe Labas has been efficient all season, completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,313 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Chippewas also use a unique two quarterback system, rotating in Angel Flores as a rushing threat. Flores leads the team with 519 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the season.

The transformation of Kent State's offense has been remarkable. Redshirt freshman quarterback Dru DeShields has been a revelation, throwing for 16 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season. His breakout performance came last Tuesday night in the rivalry game against Akron, where he threw for a career high 317 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-35 overtime victory. Those five touchdown passes were the most by a Kent State quarterback since Josh Cribbs threw five at UCF back in 2004.

DeShields has completed a pass exceeding 35 yards in all eight of his starts this season, including three touchdown strikes of 75 yards or longer. The sophomore has developed excellent chemistry with big play threats Cade Wolford and Ardell Banks, both of whom average over 20 yards per reception. Kent State showed in the Akron game that they can score quickly and in bunches when DeShields gets rolling.

The defensive numbers for Kent State look brutal at first glance, but context matters. The Golden Flashes got absolutely demolished by their three Power Four opponents, losing to Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma by a combined score that inflated their season statistics. In MAC play, however, the defense has been far more respectable. Kent State has held three of their last four MAC opponents to 21 points or fewer, showing they can compete when facing conference level talent.

Central Michigan does present significant challenges. The Chippewas rank 36th in the nation in offensive EPA per dropback, while Kent State ranks 126th defensively in that same metric. Quarterback Joe Labas has been efficient all season, completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,313 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Chippewas also use a unique two quarterback system, rotating in Angel Flores as a rushing threat. Flores leads the team with 519 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the season.

The Central Michigan defense has been opportunistic, recording 18 takeaways on the season and posting a plus eight turnover margin. Kent State sits at minus two in turnover differential, which could loom large if the Golden Flashes get careless with the football.

But turnovers are inherently unpredictable, and DeShields has shown excellent ball security with his 8 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. The redshirt freshman is taking care of the football at a high level.

The situational dynamics also favor Kent State keeping this game competitive. The Golden Flashes are playing for their postseason lives, needing victories over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in their final two games to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. For a program that won just one game total over the previous two years, making a bowl game would be a program defining achievement. The energy and desperation will be palpable at Dix Stadium on Wednesday night.

Central Michigan, meanwhile, has already secured bowl eligibility and is focused on positioning for a potential MAC championship game appearance. While the Chippewas are certainly motivated to keep winning, they have already accomplished their primary season goal. The psychological edge in terms of urgency belongs squarely to the home team.

The recent history between these programs is limited, as they haven't met since 2021. Central Michigan holds a 25-11 advantage in the all time series and won that most recent meeting 54-30 at home. However, that game was played over three years ago with completely different rosters and coaching staffs, making it largely irrelevant to Wednesday's contest.

Central Michigan has also struggled mightily on the road against MAC opponents, losing their last nine road conference games outright. The Chippewas are 7-3 against the spread overall this season, but those numbers are heavily skewed by home performance. On the road, it's been a completely different story.

The total sits around 48.5 to 50.5 depending on the book, with most projections calling for a combined score in that neighborhood. Central Michigan games have gone over the total in seven of their 10 contests this season. Kent State has split their totals evenly at 5-5. Both offenses are capable of putting up points, particularly if DeShields continues his recent hot streak through the air.

The weather forecast for Wednesday evening in Kent calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 40s and minimal wind. Weather will not be a factor in this contest.

When you step back and examine all the relevant data, Kent State at plus double digits represents strong value. The Golden Flashes have proven they can cover at home this season. Central Michigan has proven they struggle to blow out road opponents. DeShields is playing the best football of his young career at exactly the right time. And Kent State is fighting for something tangible and meaningful, while Central Michigan is simply trying to build momentum heading into the postseason.

The Chippewas will likely win this game, but asking them to win by double digits on the road against a motivated opponent with home field advantage seems like a tall order given their track record. Kent State plus the points looks like the right side.

Gimme Kent State +10  

The line is 7.5, NOT 10..nor is it 9.5 or even 9...also your write was good, but including the stat of 9.5 favorites doesn't matter at all. The line is 7.5, it opened at 8.5. You may be ultimately right even at 7.5, but to finish your rant off with gimme Kent St +10..... At +10 I love it, but that ain't the line! Good luck though...

holy BOL !! you usually dont write this much?? 

I bought one point at +9 to make it 10.

You can probably find 8.5 easily bu saying 10 and not saying the juice which is probably -140 or higher is trash posting.

I mean I like the Bills +30 on Thursday lol

I can identify some trash posting here for sure, and I'll give you a clue.

Its not me.

Ignore the hater Jimmy.  Always respect your input.

Hardrock got it at +9.5 .. I've been looking at C mich being fav on the road and they haven't covered in any away game giving up pts!! 

Kent state +9.5 is solid

@BrynnyBaby

 It most certainly was 9.5. It's down to 7. 5 now though. 

It was 9.5 almost everywhere just a little while ago.

U know ur chit......

Its amazing how much info you can find online in no time if you know how to look.  

Thank you for the pick ! Bol !

So  plus 8.5 would be a no play I guess  ??

You're all missing the humor.  Thread title is too many points and he bought more points.

I do like Kent state +7.5 ! Let’s make that money, Jimmy !

A fairpoint honestly. It's kind of a habit for me to buy points regardless of the situation on key numbers when it's really close like 9 and a half six and a half 2 1/2.

@BrynnyBaby

 You can always buy a point or two. Go Kent St.

 Posted by JimmyGape         Kent State +10    

Kent State is Garbage 

defense sucks 

Offense don’t exist