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    All Forums | College Football

    The 'Capping really isn't all that hard' Thursday Night Special! East Carolina vs. Temple! WRITE-UP!

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    scalabrine
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    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 6:46 PM ET #1

    9-1 in my last ten write-ups.

    2015 CFB season: 4-1

    Temple +3 @ East Carolina -3 

    Temple is GETTING points? Undefeated Temple? Nationally ranked Temple? Vs. a team like ECU?

    Yes, and we are going to lay the points.

    The reasons:

    1. Terrible situational spot for Temple

    Capping is not hard when you views things situation to situation. Remember the Capping 101 rules that got us an easy Nebraska win over Minnesota? 

    Here's another:

    Capping 101 Theorem 3 - When a team hasn't played anyone of particular strength for an extended period of time, the shock to that team when it does play suitable competition, even if only moderately good, is greater than it would be had they been conditioned to absorb it.

    So let's look at Temple's schedule and see if they are ready to play ECU on the road:

    Impressive Week 1 win over Penn State. (Really this is the game that thrust them into the limelight.)
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    9-1 in my last ten write-ups.

    2015 CFB season: 4-1

    Temple +3 @ East Carolina -3 

    Temple is GETTING points? Undefeated Temple? Nationally ranked Temple? Vs. a team like ECU?

    Yes, and we are going to lay the points.

    The reasons:

    1. Terrible situational spot for Temple

    Capping is not hard when you views things situation to situation. Remember the Capping 101 rules that got us an easy Nebraska win over Minnesota? 

    Here's another:

    Capping 101 Theorem 3 - When a team hasn't played anyone of particular strength for an extended period of time, the shock to that team when it does play suitable competition, even if only moderately good, is greater than it would be had they been conditioned to absorb it.

    So let's look at Temple's schedule and see if they are ready to play ECU on the road:

    Impressive Week 1 win over Penn State. (Really this is the game that thrust them into the limelight.)
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 6:47 PM ET #2

    Week 2? They go on the road to Cincy.

    What do they do? Another impressive win.

    Temple having already played suitable competition was up to speed for the Cincy game and prevailed. 

    (And let me not, Cincy and Penn State are not all that great.)

    But then there was a drop off in competition.

    Week 3 they played Umass +13.5. I posted that play favoring the Minutemen. Well let me tell you, Umass lost that game after a blocked extra point was returned for a 2 pt conversion the other way, a 3 point swing that lead to Temple kicking the game winner at the gun. Umass did everything possible in the final minute of the game living up to their Minutemen moniker in the worst possible way. A total screw job of a loss and Umass did the screwing...to themselves.

    So really, the undefeated season could have easily ended there. And this Umass team just lost to Kent state (a terrible low scoring snoozer of a team) AT HOME 15-10 last week so it shows you who they really are. And that is...not much.

    Next up? Week 4 - Charlotte. 

    They played down to their competition in the first half leading only 10-3 as 20.5 pt favorites, eventually covering. This game was an absolute joke in terms of competition with Charlotte never having a chance. Larry Johnson and Rex Chapman could have suited up and done better.

    Week 5 - Tulane

    Folks, I may be the only person in the country who dvr's and watches Tulane games. The team is a disaster. Worse, Temple even knocked out Tulane's starting QB (their only hope) and thrashed them 49-10.

    So really the previous 2 weeks amounted to ZERO 'real' competition and Umass, seeing how they've played of late, at 1-5 makes it a possible 3 bad teams.

    Are we done? Nope.

    It gets worse...to the very bottom of the barrel...

    Week 6 - University of Central Florida

    Forget the UCF teams of past. This is the lowest scoring FBS team in the nation. And their defense? Well their D, if you want to praise it in any way, ANY way at all, gave up 41 to UCONN! and 45 to the aforementioned Tulane! team 2 weeks prior. I watch UCF on the regular too and the 0-7 record doesn't do them justice, for the worse.

    So what did Temple do? They trailed....AT HOME 16-14 going into the 4th. They did not cover the 21.5 closing line (even a holding call that called back a late TD wouldn't have gotten them there), and won 30-16.

    Folks, to be trailing 16-14 at home to a team like this (and I use the word 'team' loosely), SCREAMS that the undefeated season and the pressure that comes with expectations, that Temple hasn't had in over three decades as perennial losers, tells me Temple is ready to fold at a moments notice.
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    Week 2? They go on the road to Cincy.

    What do they do? Another impressive win.

    Temple having already played suitable competition was up to speed for the Cincy game and prevailed. 

    (And let me not, Cincy and Penn State are not all that great.)

    But then there was a drop off in competition.

    Week 3 they played Umass +13.5. I posted that play favoring the Minutemen. Well let me tell you, Umass lost that game after a blocked extra point was returned for a 2 pt conversion the other way, a 3 point swing that lead to Temple kicking the game winner at the gun. Umass did everything possible in the final minute of the game living up to their Minutemen moniker in the worst possible way. A total screw job of a loss and Umass did the screwing...to themselves.

    So really, the undefeated season could have easily ended there. And this Umass team just lost to Kent state (a terrible low scoring snoozer of a team) AT HOME 15-10 last week so it shows you who they really are. And that is...not much.

    Next up? Week 4 - Charlotte. 

    They played down to their competition in the first half leading only 10-3 as 20.5 pt favorites, eventually covering. This game was an absolute joke in terms of competition with Charlotte never having a chance. Larry Johnson and Rex Chapman could have suited up and done better.

    Week 5 - Tulane

    Folks, I may be the only person in the country who dvr's and watches Tulane games. The team is a disaster. Worse, Temple even knocked out Tulane's starting QB (their only hope) and thrashed them 49-10.

    So really the previous 2 weeks amounted to ZERO 'real' competition and Umass, seeing how they've played of late, at 1-5 makes it a possible 3 bad teams.

    Are we done? Nope.

    It gets worse...to the very bottom of the barrel...

    Week 6 - University of Central Florida

    Forget the UCF teams of past. This is the lowest scoring FBS team in the nation. And their defense? Well their D, if you want to praise it in any way, ANY way at all, gave up 41 to UCONN! and 45 to the aforementioned Tulane! team 2 weeks prior. I watch UCF on the regular too and the 0-7 record doesn't do them justice, for the worse.

    So what did Temple do? They trailed....AT HOME 16-14 going into the 4th. They did not cover the 21.5 closing line (even a holding call that called back a late TD wouldn't have gotten them there), and won 30-16.

    Folks, to be trailing 16-14 at home to a team like this (and I use the word 'team' loosely), SCREAMS that the undefeated season and the pressure that comes with expectations, that Temple hasn't had in over three decades as perennial losers, tells me Temple is ready to fold at a moments notice.
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 6:48 PM ET #3

    And this game against ECU is nice because it sits under the radar to the week 8 game @ Notre Dame.

    THAT's the real game for Temple's undefeated streak to be snapped right? Wrong. This is the one in the week prior so get on the money train or wave your white hanky at it.

    You want pressure on these kids in a season that had few to no expectations? Temple just was put in the rankings at 22nd after beating UCF, for the first time in 36 years. Good for us, bad for their psyche.

    If the voters watched the UCF game they would have made it a point to keep Temple OUT of the top 25. That is how underwhelming and turnover laden this team is. Beat ECU? You deserve every bit of a top 25 ranking. But you do not deserve one when 2/3rds of your schedule is comprised of bad to a dumpster fire worth of teams.

    Now we know what Temple really is when you pull back the shroud, so what is ECU?

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    And this game against ECU is nice because it sits under the radar to the week 8 game @ Notre Dame.

    THAT's the real game for Temple's undefeated streak to be snapped right? Wrong. This is the one in the week prior so get on the money train or wave your white hanky at it.

    You want pressure on these kids in a season that had few to no expectations? Temple just was put in the rankings at 22nd after beating UCF, for the first time in 36 years. Good for us, bad for their psyche.

    If the voters watched the UCF game they would have made it a point to keep Temple OUT of the top 25. That is how underwhelming and turnover laden this team is. Beat ECU? You deserve every bit of a top 25 ranking. But you do not deserve one when 2/3rds of your schedule is comprised of bad to a dumpster fire worth of teams.

    Now we know what Temple really is when you pull back the shroud, so what is ECU?

     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 6:49 PM ET #4

    2. ECU

    This is a moderately good to somewhat solid team that has, and this is key? been battle tested (just what we want in comparison to Temple's near "month off" with that schedule).

    ECU will be a shock to their system. They average 32 ppg and it's not against borderline FCS teams.

    They came within a TD of winning in the swamp at Florida and their ferocious front 7 losing 31-24. That competitive LOSS alone is better than Temple's last 3 wins against that borderline FCS competition!

    They beat Virgina Tech 35-28, put up 38 @ BYU in a very competitive game and manhandled Tulsa last game to get some momentum and fine-tuning coming into this one. Great teams? No. Teams that will condition you to beat a team like Temple? Yes. And that's all we care about.

    And remember this ECU team and some of their remaining seniors rocked UNC last year and put up 70 on them in one of the most embarrassing losses in program history. This team can score. Don't look past the Pirates to rankings and perfect records folks. You'll be making a mistake.

    3. Miscellaneous points

    - ECU runs a dual QB system with Blake Kemp (71% completion percentage and 10 TD's) and James Summers (4 TD's and 354 yards rushing), something Temple definitely hasn't come close to seeing, no less prepare for.

    - This game is on a short week on Thursday and requires travel for Temple. It will be nationally televised obviously and to your surprise, you will see that ECU home crowd can get quite rabid.

    - This is a mini-revenge spot for ECU dropping last year's matchup 20-10 to Temple in a season they won 8 games and almost took out Florida in the Birmingham bowl (a season they were better than Temple in and were competing for a conference championship before Temple took them out).

    - Despite Temple being undefeated, this is a very important game for ECU and will give them the lead, due to tiebreakers, in the conference if they win it.

    - Temple has played two straight home games against total crap and now go on the road to face the superior instead of the inferior. ECU STAYS home to prepare for Temple after last week, always crucial on a short week.

    - Temple's defensive stats are inflated given their competition so, although very solid, don't overrate them, especially in this spot on the road.

    - Temple is turning the ball over alarming regularity:

    TO's By week:
    Week 1 - 1
    Week 2 - 1
    Week 3 - 3
    Week 4 - 1
    Week 5 - 2
    Week 6 - 4 (against an 0-6 team!)
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    2. ECU

    This is a moderately good to somewhat solid team that has, and this is key? been battle tested (just what we want in comparison to Temple's near "month off" with that schedule).

    ECU will be a shock to their system. They average 32 ppg and it's not against borderline FCS teams.

    They came within a TD of winning in the swamp at Florida and their ferocious front 7 losing 31-24. That competitive LOSS alone is better than Temple's last 3 wins against that borderline FCS competition!

    They beat Virgina Tech 35-28, put up 38 @ BYU in a very competitive game and manhandled Tulsa last game to get some momentum and fine-tuning coming into this one. Great teams? No. Teams that will condition you to beat a team like Temple? Yes. And that's all we care about.

    And remember this ECU team and some of their remaining seniors rocked UNC last year and put up 70 on them in one of the most embarrassing losses in program history. This team can score. Don't look past the Pirates to rankings and perfect records folks. You'll be making a mistake.

    3. Miscellaneous points

    - ECU runs a dual QB system with Blake Kemp (71% completion percentage and 10 TD's) and James Summers (4 TD's and 354 yards rushing), something Temple definitely hasn't come close to seeing, no less prepare for.

    - This game is on a short week on Thursday and requires travel for Temple. It will be nationally televised obviously and to your surprise, you will see that ECU home crowd can get quite rabid.

    - This is a mini-revenge spot for ECU dropping last year's matchup 20-10 to Temple in a season they won 8 games and almost took out Florida in the Birmingham bowl (a season they were better than Temple in and were competing for a conference championship before Temple took them out).

    - Despite Temple being undefeated, this is a very important game for ECU and will give them the lead, due to tiebreakers, in the conference if they win it.

    - Temple has played two straight home games against total crap and now go on the road to face the superior instead of the inferior. ECU STAYS home to prepare for Temple after last week, always crucial on a short week.

    - Temple's defensive stats are inflated given their competition so, although very solid, don't overrate them, especially in this spot on the road.

    - Temple is turning the ball over alarming regularity:

    TO's By week:
    Week 1 - 1
    Week 2 - 1
    Week 3 - 3
    Week 4 - 1
    Week 5 - 2
    Week 6 - 4 (against an 0-6 team!)
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 6:50 PM ET #5

    Hard to back a team that doesn't protect the ball.

     Line opened at 2 and is up to 3 -115. The above justifies the 3 (yeah I'd like 2 but if that is the number right now so be it). We lay the points and eat the juice.

    The pick:

    PIRATES -3 over OWLS 
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    Hard to back a team that doesn't protect the ball.

     Line opened at 2 and is up to 3 -115. The above justifies the 3 (yeah I'd like 2 but if that is the number right now so be it). We lay the points and eat the juice.

    The pick:

    PIRATES -3 over OWLS 
     
    venezolanisimo
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:13 PM ET #6

    nice SCAL ...one more time BOL   I AGREE
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    nice SCAL ...one more time BOL   I AGREE
     
    puffkit
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:20 PM ET #7

    great write up!....locked in at -2.5 on sunday pm! 

    good luck
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    great write up!....locked in at -2.5 on sunday pm! 

    good luck
     
    capskip
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:22 PM ET #8

    Best of luck buddy  
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    Best of luck buddy  
     
    808-Warrior
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:29 PM ET #9

    Love the play!  GL
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    Love the play!  GL
     
    PLAYAAAA1969
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:30 PM ET #10

    SWEET 
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    SWEET 
     
    BYUdline56
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:30 PM ET #11

    I got it -2 and believe it is the best play on the board. We shall see
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    I got it -2 and believe it is the best play on the board. We shall see
     
    bandit1010
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:33 PM ET #12

       Agreed.  Astute write-up.
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       Agreed.  Astute write-up.
     
    Teaser78
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:39 PM ET #13

    Same situation USC vs #3 ranked Utah 
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    Same situation USC vs #3 ranked Utah 
     
    12pk
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 7:52 PM ET #14

    Great write up scal ,was leaning temple,  but u reminded me of the nc game last year. Was thinking about going to linc for n.d. game next week , this is a get out of your bet at halftime from heritage sports. So will line watch ,thanks for write up
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    Great write up scal ,was leaning temple,  but u reminded me of the nc game last year. Was thinking about going to linc for n.d. game next week , this is a get out of your bet at halftime from heritage sports. So will line watch ,thanks for write up
     
    Biscuiteater1
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:06 PM ET #15

    When they take the field to the tune of Purple Haze it is indeed quite raucous. I like their chances but make no mistake Temple will be ready but they will have to put severe pressure on qb's to win. The Pirates have been very good to me this year.Just stay away from them when they play Navy.
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    When they take the field to the tune of Purple Haze it is indeed quite raucous. I like their chances but make no mistake Temple will be ready but they will have to put severe pressure on qb's to win. The Pirates have been very good to me this year.Just stay away from them when they play Navy.
     
    MDBuckeye
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:18 PM ET #16

    Great work scalabrine .  With you on the Pirates. 
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    Great work scalabrine .  With you on the Pirates. 
     
    FunnyCide
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:20 PM ET #17

    Nice write up scal !!!! 
      Will be tagging along
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    Nice write up scal !!!! 
      Will be tagging along
     
    fts1409
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:24 PM ET #18

    good stuff.
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    good stuff.
     
    fts1409
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:27 PM ET #19

    Sagarin SOS 44vs125
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    Sagarin SOS 44vs125
     
    DegenCurtis21
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:43 PM ET #20

    I've been a big fan of taking Temple the last few years. PJ Walker is a good QB. Also, I've been fading ECU a little the last few years because I think their HC is an idiot. You're a helluva capper, line looks like it's begging for Temple money, not a good spot for Temple. Cincy racked up yards on Temple, no reason East Carolina's passing attack shouldn't do the same. I bet 2200 on Philly last night w/ bookie. Debating on letting the 4200 ride on ECU here. 27-20..
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    I've been a big fan of taking Temple the last few years. PJ Walker is a good QB. Also, I've been fading ECU a little the last few years because I think their HC is an idiot. You're a helluva capper, line looks like it's begging for Temple money, not a good spot for Temple. Cincy racked up yards on Temple, no reason East Carolina's passing attack shouldn't do the same. I bet 2200 on Philly last night w/ bookie. Debating on letting the 4200 ride on ECU here. 27-20..
     
    DKELLEY72875
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 8:57 PM ET #21

    Great stuff Brother!  Thanks for sharing. I will be on it with you and win or lose the record is impressive.

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    Great stuff Brother!  Thanks for sharing. I will be on it with you and win or lose the record is impressive.

     
    Relax_Dude
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2015 - 9:48 PM ET #22

    Looks good. I think Temple is just gonna lose on purpose. I'm putting $500 on East Carolina. Hope everyone else in the universe unloads on East Carolina too!
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    Looks good. I think Temple is just gonna lose on purpose. I'm putting $500 on East Carolina. Hope everyone else in the universe unloads on East Carolina too!
     
    melossinglet
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2015 - 3:34 AM ET #23

    i came for the rex chapman reference but i stayed for the pick....cheers,bud
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    i came for the rex chapman reference but i stayed for the pick....cheers,bud
     
    bigvern1013
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2015 - 7:38 AM ET #24

    Many good points.  ECU HC McNeil doesn't understand how the clock works, but other than that, ECU should have a good shot at winning this one.

    Just hope it isn't close down the stretch.....may be a tail here.

    GL with your pick. 
    Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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    Many good points.  ECU HC McNeil doesn't understand how the clock works, but other than that, ECU should have a good shot at winning this one.

    Just hope it isn't close down the stretch.....may be a tail here.

    GL with your pick. 
     
     
    ROVIN56
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2015 - 8:37 AM ET #25

    this game is far from being the easiest on the board this week...in fact it is a virtual coinflip...edge to Temple defense here regardless of how many qb's Pirates run at them...Temple should win this game by 7...regardless fine run and research (shake)
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    this game is far from being the easiest on the board this week...in fact it is a virtual coinflip...edge to Temple defense here regardless of how many qb's Pirates run at them...Temple should win this game by 7...regardless fine run and research (shake)
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