you can't trust UCONN defense in general or you can't trust UCONN defence at home?
They are allowing less than 15 points per game at home and more than 28 points per game on the road.
and speaking of defense, UCONN forced 4 turnovers in the last game against West Virginia.
on offense, they were shut out by louisville at home....but the Huskies are averaging about 41 points per game at home and less than 13 points per game on the road.
so I think you may have to put more weight on the home field advantage when capping....
GL on your play
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you can't trust UCONN defense in general or you can't trust UCONN defence at home?
They are allowing less than 15 points per game at home and more than 28 points per game on the road.
and speaking of defense, UCONN forced 4 turnovers in the last game against West Virginia.
on offense, they were shut out by louisville at home....but the Huskies are averaging about 41 points per game at home and less than 13 points per game on the road.
so I think you may have to put more weight on the home field advantage when capping....
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6
1-2 ATS (-34.00 Unit)
Another bad call on the Panthers. I've been burned by them 2-3 times this season and should have known the way Connecticut is playing at home and the way Randy Edsall can round up his troops. The Group took Friday Night off to recoup and now it's time to put away another Saturday with big winners! We have 6 HUGE PLAYS and looking to go 6-0 or 5-1 at very least. GOOD LUCK!
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Week 11
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6
1-2 ATS (-34.00 Unit)
Another bad call on the Panthers. I've been burned by them 2-3 times this season and should have known the way Connecticut is playing at home and the way Randy Edsall can round up his troops. The Group took Friday Night off to recoup and now it's time to put away another Saturday with big winners! We have 6 HUGE PLAYS and looking to go 6-0 or 5-1 at very least. GOOD LUCK!
The first thought on this one was...TRAP! But upon further review, the public is split 50-50 on the outcome (spread) of this game and that makes it a lot more comfortable to back the Buckeyes at home where they have dominated pretty much every opponent that has come through this place. Ohio State has missed 2 spread covers all season long and both of them have been away from home where they failed to cover the -16 points at Illinois and they also failed to cover the -3.5 at Wisconsin a few weeks ago, their only loss of the 2010 season and the only reason they are going to miss out on the BCS Championship Game. I don't doubt the Iowa and Michigan games are on their mind, both big games in their own, but coming off the BYE WEEK Jim Tressel is going to want perfection and perfection he should get. Penn State is coming off a 35-21 home win over Northwestern and they are 3-0 ATS since their BYE WEEK in October but they beat Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern and none of those teams come close to Ohio State. The Buckeyes average 47.3 points per home game in 2010 while Penn State has allowed 23.0 points per away game in 2010 and have allowed 397.3 total yards of offense per road game. Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor has a 9.5 yards per pass attempt average at home and believe me he'll go to town on this young Penn State secondary that has allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt away from home and been torched all season long on the road. The Nittany Lions are averaging only 13.0 points per road game and any hope they have of winning this game or covering the spread runs through their ground attack but Ohio State has allowed 2.3 yards per carry at home this season. VERY IMPORTANT STAT...It has been more than 8 years since Penn State has scored more than 20 points against Ohio State (they average 12.0 points per game in this series) and I don't see that changing in this game. Penn State was favored and won here in 2008 but oh my how things have changed. PENN STATE COMES INTO THIS GAME 1-6 ATS IN THEIR LAST SEVEN AS A ROAD UNDERDOG and that's not going to cut it in Columbus as they are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Betting on Penn State as an underdog in general has never generated profit and it has actually been a mega-profit going the other way. Now take into consideration that Ohio State are an incredible 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and you have one heck of a spread bet in this one. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more and they are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. I don't like the whole College GameDay attention thing because the Buckeyes and other teams don't seem to handle it all that well but this is a spot you can't avoid Ohio State and like I said before, Penn State has been a traditionally good fade as a road underdog the last four or five seasons, specially a double digit dog. Ohio State makes a statement with a huge win tonight. Despite their win and cover here in 2008, Penn State is still 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Columbus to play the Buckeyes and I am going against them big in this one.
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Ohio State 35, Penn State 12
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Ohio State Buckeyes -18
The first thought on this one was...TRAP! But upon further review, the public is split 50-50 on the outcome (spread) of this game and that makes it a lot more comfortable to back the Buckeyes at home where they have dominated pretty much every opponent that has come through this place. Ohio State has missed 2 spread covers all season long and both of them have been away from home where they failed to cover the -16 points at Illinois and they also failed to cover the -3.5 at Wisconsin a few weeks ago, their only loss of the 2010 season and the only reason they are going to miss out on the BCS Championship Game. I don't doubt the Iowa and Michigan games are on their mind, both big games in their own, but coming off the BYE WEEK Jim Tressel is going to want perfection and perfection he should get. Penn State is coming off a 35-21 home win over Northwestern and they are 3-0 ATS since their BYE WEEK in October but they beat Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern and none of those teams come close to Ohio State. The Buckeyes average 47.3 points per home game in 2010 while Penn State has allowed 23.0 points per away game in 2010 and have allowed 397.3 total yards of offense per road game. Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor has a 9.5 yards per pass attempt average at home and believe me he'll go to town on this young Penn State secondary that has allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt away from home and been torched all season long on the road. The Nittany Lions are averaging only 13.0 points per road game and any hope they have of winning this game or covering the spread runs through their ground attack but Ohio State has allowed 2.3 yards per carry at home this season. VERY IMPORTANT STAT...It has been more than 8 years since Penn State has scored more than 20 points against Ohio State (they average 12.0 points per game in this series) and I don't see that changing in this game. Penn State was favored and won here in 2008 but oh my how things have changed. PENN STATE COMES INTO THIS GAME 1-6 ATS IN THEIR LAST SEVEN AS A ROAD UNDERDOG and that's not going to cut it in Columbus as they are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Betting on Penn State as an underdog in general has never generated profit and it has actually been a mega-profit going the other way. Now take into consideration that Ohio State are an incredible 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and you have one heck of a spread bet in this one. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more and they are now 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. I don't like the whole College GameDay attention thing because the Buckeyes and other teams don't seem to handle it all that well but this is a spot you can't avoid Ohio State and like I said before, Penn State has been a traditionally good fade as a road underdog the last four or five seasons, specially a double digit dog. Ohio State makes a statement with a huge win tonight. Despite their win and cover here in 2008, Penn State is still 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Columbus to play the Buckeyes and I am going against them big in this one.
The guys in here that post stuff about records being wrong or being a tout or being this or that......WHO CARES!!!!!! You are getting good information and a write up in a game that is being played.....
The write-ups in covers are for you to read and then ASSIST your handicapping....no one is SELLING anything.....if you want to buy information you can on the COVERS home page....
Most of the haters are gambling LOSERS that couldn't write anything this good so they HATE on the post and sound stupid....
Even if this guy/girl is a tout....who cares....IT IS FREE INFORMATION!!!!!!
Its funny how all the HATERS always post on guys/girls that have winning records..what are you jealous that this guy is winning and you are losing????...they always post when you lose that ONE game out of TEN that you played that week.
SINV nice write up and continued success this years!!!!
G
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Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:
The guys in here that post stuff about records being wrong or being a tout or being this or that......WHO CARES!!!!!! You are getting good information and a write up in a game that is being played.....
The write-ups in covers are for you to read and then ASSIST your handicapping....no one is SELLING anything.....if you want to buy information you can on the COVERS home page....
Most of the haters are gambling LOSERS that couldn't write anything this good so they HATE on the post and sound stupid....
Even if this guy/girl is a tout....who cares....IT IS FREE INFORMATION!!!!!!
Its funny how all the HATERS always post on guys/girls that have winning records..what are you jealous that this guy is winning and you are losing????...they always post when you lose that ONE game out of TEN that you played that week.
SINV nice write up and continued success this years!!!!
I don't think so. Obviously the expectations are for a high scoring game between two teams who can put 40+ points on the board on any given day of the week(end) but this is not Oklahoma State, it's the Oklahoma Sooners and the last few times Texas Tech was in this place, the Sooners managed to hold them to only 13 points in 2000, only 15 points in 2002, only 13 points in 2004, only 24 points in 2006 and only 21 points in 2008 which means over the course of the last 10 years now (5 visits from the Red Raiders), Oklahoma has managed to hold Texas Tech to only 17.2 points per game and that's an accomplishment for any team in the Country to be honest with you. I mean this is the same Texas Tech offense that has ranked in the TOP 10 offenses of college football each of those last five seasons they came to Norman yet the Sooners always find a way to shut them down. You see the obvious play is to take the OVER with Texas Tech averaging 36.0 points per road game on 463.0 total yards of offense in those games this season going up against Oklahoma who average 40.0 points per game at home this season on 514.6 total yards of offense per game in those games but again the dynamics are different when the Red Raiders come to town and this Oklahoma defense is stout at home allowing only 15.0 points per home game in 2010. No opponent has scored more than 24 points in this place all year and even then since allowing at least 17 points in each of their first three home games, the Sooners have really got their act together on defense and they have allowed only 10 points in two games since. In order to bet on an OVER you have to have two offenses that are dynamic both in the air and on the ground and while nobody is going to argue that these are two tremendous passing offenses, because they are, Oklahoma for one averages only 2.8 yards per carry on the ground (tick tock tick tock) in their last three games and Texas Tech has not been all that much better at 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Alright so what this comes down to is Texas Tech and how many points they put on the board. We know they are going to come into this place throwing the ball with the #8 ranked passing offense in the Nation right now but...in terms of talent, Oklahoma has the 4th best and most talented secondary in the Nation and they have shown it at home allowing only 196.2 passing yards per game and allowing visiting QB's to complete a pathetic 45.6% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. They bring the pressure with 14 sacks in five home games and also have 5 interceptions in those games. What's even more interesting for those still doubting the UNDER is that in five home games in 2010, Oklahoma has run the ball 44.0 times per game compared to 41.4 pass attempts per game which means they love to control clock, they love to hold onto the ball and they love playing the power run game which is a classic UNDER lover. THIS IS SENIORS DAY FOR OKLAHOMA and they have a few members of that defense that want to go out on a high. Oklahoma's offense is not as good as it once was but their defense is really dominating at home and they really got their shit together fast after struggling in the opening three games working with only 5 returning starters on that side of the ball. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five games played in November by Texas Tech and I don't really know why but when the oddsmakers doubt them it's probably because they are going up against a tough defense (which is the case today) and the UNDER is now 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog. The UNDER is also 8-3 in their last 11 Big 12 Conference games and 9-2 when the Red Raiders are coming off a game where they allowed 200+ rushing yards and believe me Oklahoma is not rushing for 200+ yards in this one. The last four times Oklahoma has been favored by 10.5 points or more at home, the UNDER has gone 4-0 in those games and coming off that road loss to Texas A&M you have to expect Stoops to be all over his guys and his defense as the UNDER is now 5-1 when the Sooners are coming off a straight up loss the game before. The guys in Vegas always make this mistake with Oklahoma (setting totals too high) and the UNDER has been good in 16 of their last 23 games overall. I want you to keep in mind that Oklahoma runs the ball more than they pass it at home and Texas Tech averages only 17.2 points per game in their last five trips to Oklahoma. That's good enough for me. Expecting a ton of points would be a mistake my fellow handicappers.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: ***30 Units***
Oklahoma 30, Texas Tech 19
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Texas Tech-Oklahoma 'UNDER' 64.5
I don't think so. Obviously the expectations are for a high scoring game between two teams who can put 40+ points on the board on any given day of the week(end) but this is not Oklahoma State, it's the Oklahoma Sooners and the last few times Texas Tech was in this place, the Sooners managed to hold them to only 13 points in 2000, only 15 points in 2002, only 13 points in 2004, only 24 points in 2006 and only 21 points in 2008 which means over the course of the last 10 years now (5 visits from the Red Raiders), Oklahoma has managed to hold Texas Tech to only 17.2 points per game and that's an accomplishment for any team in the Country to be honest with you. I mean this is the same Texas Tech offense that has ranked in the TOP 10 offenses of college football each of those last five seasons they came to Norman yet the Sooners always find a way to shut them down. You see the obvious play is to take the OVER with Texas Tech averaging 36.0 points per road game on 463.0 total yards of offense in those games this season going up against Oklahoma who average 40.0 points per game at home this season on 514.6 total yards of offense per game in those games but again the dynamics are different when the Red Raiders come to town and this Oklahoma defense is stout at home allowing only 15.0 points per home game in 2010. No opponent has scored more than 24 points in this place all year and even then since allowing at least 17 points in each of their first three home games, the Sooners have really got their act together on defense and they have allowed only 10 points in two games since. In order to bet on an OVER you have to have two offenses that are dynamic both in the air and on the ground and while nobody is going to argue that these are two tremendous passing offenses, because they are, Oklahoma for one averages only 2.8 yards per carry on the ground (tick tock tick tock) in their last three games and Texas Tech has not been all that much better at 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Alright so what this comes down to is Texas Tech and how many points they put on the board. We know they are going to come into this place throwing the ball with the #8 ranked passing offense in the Nation right now but...in terms of talent, Oklahoma has the 4th best and most talented secondary in the Nation and they have shown it at home allowing only 196.2 passing yards per game and allowing visiting QB's to complete a pathetic 45.6% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt. They bring the pressure with 14 sacks in five home games and also have 5 interceptions in those games. What's even more interesting for those still doubting the UNDER is that in five home games in 2010, Oklahoma has run the ball 44.0 times per game compared to 41.4 pass attempts per game which means they love to control clock, they love to hold onto the ball and they love playing the power run game which is a classic UNDER lover. THIS IS SENIORS DAY FOR OKLAHOMA and they have a few members of that defense that want to go out on a high. Oklahoma's offense is not as good as it once was but their defense is really dominating at home and they really got their shit together fast after struggling in the opening three games working with only 5 returning starters on that side of the ball. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five games played in November by Texas Tech and I don't really know why but when the oddsmakers doubt them it's probably because they are going up against a tough defense (which is the case today) and the UNDER is now 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog. The UNDER is also 8-3 in their last 11 Big 12 Conference games and 9-2 when the Red Raiders are coming off a game where they allowed 200+ rushing yards and believe me Oklahoma is not rushing for 200+ yards in this one. The last four times Oklahoma has been favored by 10.5 points or more at home, the UNDER has gone 4-0 in those games and coming off that road loss to Texas A&M you have to expect Stoops to be all over his guys and his defense as the UNDER is now 5-1 when the Sooners are coming off a straight up loss the game before. The guys in Vegas always make this mistake with Oklahoma (setting totals too high) and the UNDER has been good in 16 of their last 23 games overall. I want you to keep in mind that Oklahoma runs the ball more than they pass it at home and Texas Tech averages only 17.2 points per game in their last five trips to Oklahoma. That's good enough for me. Expecting a ton of points would be a mistake my fellow handicappers.
Too many points? Obviously not if this is the recommended investment today but I know the Hokies will have their doubters and for that I don't mind this pick. What's on the line in this one exactly some of you might ask? The answer is simple. If Virginia Tech can win like they have been going ever since they lost to Boise State and James Madison to open the season (7-0 SU since those losses), they move to 6-0 SU in ACC Conference play which means that the only team that can catch them in the ACC Coastal Division would be Miami and they play each other next weekend but believe me this is the big game because a loss in this one and a Miami win would mean the Hurricanes are only one game back of the Hokies and they get to host Virginia Tech next weekend. Keep those eyes on the prize boys and by prize I mean a win tonight which pretty much locks things up. No matter how good North Carolina looked last week in Tallahassee I find it tough to back them at home where they are only 2-2 ATS in four home games and where they almost lost to William & Mary two weeks ago as a -20 point favorite. Virginia Tech was lackluster in their Thursday Night Football win over Georgia Tech last week (the same Yellow Jackets team that beat North Carolina 30-24 in this place earlier this season) but they won and that's all that matters for a team that is now 2-0 ATS in both their away games as a favorite in 2010. The Hokies went to Boston College as a -3.5 and won 19-0. The following week they went to NC State as a -3.5 point favorite and won 41-30. GAME CHANGING NEWS: UNC RB JOHNNY WHITE IS OUT FOR THE YEAR and that's huge because he led the Heels with 720 rushing yards, 24 catches and 7 total touchdowns on the season and losing him is a huge blow to a Tar Heels team that was very effective running the ball at home this season and who will now struggle more than ever against a Bud Foster defense that has been much better against the run on the road than at home allowing 3.5 yards per carry on only 107.5 rushing yards per road game this season. Impressive stuff for sure. Alright so key in on this factor please. Virginia Tech loves to control the clock, they love to run the ball and they run the ball very well averaging 211.5 rushing yards per ROAD GAME this season on a very impressive 5.5 yards per carry in those games. North Carolina with all the injuries and suspensions have allowed 4.4 yards per carry at home and have also allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt. You can do that against QB Tyrod Taylor because not only will he kill you on his feet but he is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt on the road this season and he won't hesitate to make this defense pay. In their last three games the Tar Heels have aired the ball out with success averaging 272.3 passing yards per game on a crazy 9.2 yards per pass attempt but Virginia Tech has allowed only 4.6 yards per pass attempt their last three games and this secondary is getting pretty damn good after a slow start to the season. What you need to know about this series is that the visiting team is 4-2 SU in the last six meetings and Virginia Tech no doubt has revenge on their minds for the 20-17 home loss to these Tar Heels last year which somewhat derailed their seasons for the time being. Having said that Virginia Tech found a way to win here in 2008 and they'll find a way to get it done again in 2010. My issue with Virginia Tech in last week's PRIMETIME game is that they did not effectively move the ball in the air but I like their chances in this one as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they pass for less than 170 passing yards in the previous game. I was on the Hokies at North Carolina State and Boston College and I will be on them again as they are 6-1 ATS now in their last seven games as a favorite. BEAMER BALL HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN NOVEMBER where Virginia Tech is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played in November and believe it or not Virginia Tech has covered the spread in 24 of their last 33 road games and they have covered the spread in 36 of their last 51 ACC Conference Games. That's just good coaching. The problem with North Carolina is that they threw all their eggs in the same basket for that win at Florida State last weekend and this is a team that has covered the spread only 6 times in the last 27 games coming off a game where they pass for 280 or more passing yards in that game. What a letdown spot for the Tar Heels. The Road Team is now 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and again the Hokies have a really good chance to put this Division away and relax a little bit their last two regular season games. No way Beamer fails to cover the spread in two straight November Conference games. Not happening.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: *10 Units*
Virginia Tech 28, North Carolina 18
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Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5
Too many points? Obviously not if this is the recommended investment today but I know the Hokies will have their doubters and for that I don't mind this pick. What's on the line in this one exactly some of you might ask? The answer is simple. If Virginia Tech can win like they have been going ever since they lost to Boise State and James Madison to open the season (7-0 SU since those losses), they move to 6-0 SU in ACC Conference play which means that the only team that can catch them in the ACC Coastal Division would be Miami and they play each other next weekend but believe me this is the big game because a loss in this one and a Miami win would mean the Hurricanes are only one game back of the Hokies and they get to host Virginia Tech next weekend. Keep those eyes on the prize boys and by prize I mean a win tonight which pretty much locks things up. No matter how good North Carolina looked last week in Tallahassee I find it tough to back them at home where they are only 2-2 ATS in four home games and where they almost lost to William & Mary two weeks ago as a -20 point favorite. Virginia Tech was lackluster in their Thursday Night Football win over Georgia Tech last week (the same Yellow Jackets team that beat North Carolina 30-24 in this place earlier this season) but they won and that's all that matters for a team that is now 2-0 ATS in both their away games as a favorite in 2010. The Hokies went to Boston College as a -3.5 and won 19-0. The following week they went to NC State as a -3.5 point favorite and won 41-30. GAME CHANGING NEWS: UNC RB JOHNNY WHITE IS OUT FOR THE YEAR and that's huge because he led the Heels with 720 rushing yards, 24 catches and 7 total touchdowns on the season and losing him is a huge blow to a Tar Heels team that was very effective running the ball at home this season and who will now struggle more than ever against a Bud Foster defense that has been much better against the run on the road than at home allowing 3.5 yards per carry on only 107.5 rushing yards per road game this season. Impressive stuff for sure. Alright so key in on this factor please. Virginia Tech loves to control the clock, they love to run the ball and they run the ball very well averaging 211.5 rushing yards per ROAD GAME this season on a very impressive 5.5 yards per carry in those games. North Carolina with all the injuries and suspensions have allowed 4.4 yards per carry at home and have also allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt. You can do that against QB Tyrod Taylor because not only will he kill you on his feet but he is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt on the road this season and he won't hesitate to make this defense pay. In their last three games the Tar Heels have aired the ball out with success averaging 272.3 passing yards per game on a crazy 9.2 yards per pass attempt but Virginia Tech has allowed only 4.6 yards per pass attempt their last three games and this secondary is getting pretty damn good after a slow start to the season. What you need to know about this series is that the visiting team is 4-2 SU in the last six meetings and Virginia Tech no doubt has revenge on their minds for the 20-17 home loss to these Tar Heels last year which somewhat derailed their seasons for the time being. Having said that Virginia Tech found a way to win here in 2008 and they'll find a way to get it done again in 2010. My issue with Virginia Tech in last week's PRIMETIME game is that they did not effectively move the ball in the air but I like their chances in this one as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a game where they pass for less than 170 passing yards in the previous game. I was on the Hokies at North Carolina State and Boston College and I will be on them again as they are 6-1 ATS now in their last seven games as a favorite. BEAMER BALL HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN NOVEMBER where Virginia Tech is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played in November and believe it or not Virginia Tech has covered the spread in 24 of their last 33 road games and they have covered the spread in 36 of their last 51 ACC Conference Games. That's just good coaching. The problem with North Carolina is that they threw all their eggs in the same basket for that win at Florida State last weekend and this is a team that has covered the spread only 6 times in the last 27 games coming off a game where they pass for 280 or more passing yards in that game. What a letdown spot for the Tar Heels. The Road Team is now 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and again the Hokies have a really good chance to put this Division away and relax a little bit their last two regular season games. No way Beamer fails to cover the spread in two straight November Conference games. Not happening.
How juicy can a line look anyways? The most obvious play to anyone already down on the afternoon games is going to be a wager on South Carolina and the OLE BALL COACH to keep this game close on Steve Spurrier's old stomping grounds but the general assumption that the Gamecocks can keep this close and win the SEC East Division is bogus in my eyes. For crying out loud, QB Stephen Garcia was benched in South Carolina's home loss to Arkansas last weekend and there is a bit of turmoil in the locker room right now with no definitive Senior leader on this ball club. So basically what that tells us even if Garcia gets the nod in this game is that the onus is on RB Marcus Lattimore and WR Alshon Jeffery and of course the Gamecocks defense to make big plays. Don't forget the last time South Carolina was here they were the #24 ranked team in the Nation in 2008 and they got their asses handed to them in that game in a 56-6 loss to Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer. So how does this work anyways for Florida. The big question surrounding such a high spread for a game with so much on the line is how are the Gators going to stop the prolific passing attack of South Carolina who managed to score 27 points at Auburn earlier this season? The funny thing about that game is that ever since then, the production away from home has been on a decline and the lower the level of competition, the worse the Gamecocks looked as they put up only 28 points at Kentucky and then went to Vanderbilt the following weekend and managed only 21 points in a 21-7 road win. On the road however, the Gamecocks have passed for 347.3 passing yards per game on a ridiculous 10.4 yards per pass attempt but the Florida Gators have the #12 ranked passing defense in the Nation in 2010 and at home they have allowed only 160.8 passing yards per game, their opponents have completed only 51.7% of their passes this season and the Gators have held those opponents to 5.6 yards per pass attempt while picking off a ton of passes. THAT'S RIGHT, FLORIDA HAS 11 INTERCEPTIONS IN ONLY 5 HOME GAMES THIS SEASON and that's obviously a huge problem for South Carolina because Stephen Garcia has thrown 9 interceptions this season the South Carolina QB's have combined to throw 12 picks on the year. Where this season could have gone for Florida had they not lost to LSU and Mississippi State at home earlier this season in consecutive weeks and when all looked like it was taking a turn for the worst, the Gators got their act together once and for all and have not looked back since beating Georgia and Vanderbilt in convincing fashion coming out of their BYE WEEK and they are 2-0 ATS since Urban Meyer has taken the time to work with the team and prepare them for the SEC Championship Game. South Carolina's defense has not been that great away from home as they have allowed 24.3 points per road game and have allowed 381.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. The big concern? SOUTH CAROLINA HAS 0 INTERCEPTIONS ON THE ROAD THIS SEASON and in the SEC if you cannot force turnovers and get your team the ball back, you are not going to cover or win games. Plain and simple. That would probably be why the Gamecocks are 1-2 ATS on the road this season. In their last three games South Carolina have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt and their secondary has been awful. The Gators don't have much of a deep game but they no doubt know how to take care of business and sniff out blood when they need to. Don't forget guys, the last time Steve Spurrier was here, he suffered the worst loss of his career (that 56-6 game I was talking about) and South Carolina has managed to win only 4 of the 30 lifetime games they have played in this series with Florida. OUCH! With the SEC East Division on the line and with Appalachian State on the menu next week for the Gators, this is obviously the game they want. I have to hand it to Spurrier, he has been very good throughout the course of his career coming off a straight up loss but South Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record and although I like them as underdogs, betting on South Carolina on the road has never been a profitable option. Florida is too good at home, they are too well prepared and the Gators are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a road team with a winning record away from home on the season. The Gators are also CASH MONEY at this time of the year every single season going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in November and they are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Since that stretch of football in October where all looked lost for the Gators and where they lost three straight games, this team has really turned things around and they looked great against Georgia two weeks ago. The Home Team has dominated this series for eight straight years now and Steve Spurrier seems to have some kind of jinx when he comes back to Gainesville as South Carolina is now 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to the SWAMP and I expect the Gators to put away the SEC East Division with two games to spare. This team can make you some money! Get on it.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: *10 Units*
Florida 31, South Carolina 18
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Florida Gators -6.5
How juicy can a line look anyways? The most obvious play to anyone already down on the afternoon games is going to be a wager on South Carolina and the OLE BALL COACH to keep this game close on Steve Spurrier's old stomping grounds but the general assumption that the Gamecocks can keep this close and win the SEC East Division is bogus in my eyes. For crying out loud, QB Stephen Garcia was benched in South Carolina's home loss to Arkansas last weekend and there is a bit of turmoil in the locker room right now with no definitive Senior leader on this ball club. So basically what that tells us even if Garcia gets the nod in this game is that the onus is on RB Marcus Lattimore and WR Alshon Jeffery and of course the Gamecocks defense to make big plays. Don't forget the last time South Carolina was here they were the #24 ranked team in the Nation in 2008 and they got their asses handed to them in that game in a 56-6 loss to Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer. So how does this work anyways for Florida. The big question surrounding such a high spread for a game with so much on the line is how are the Gators going to stop the prolific passing attack of South Carolina who managed to score 27 points at Auburn earlier this season? The funny thing about that game is that ever since then, the production away from home has been on a decline and the lower the level of competition, the worse the Gamecocks looked as they put up only 28 points at Kentucky and then went to Vanderbilt the following weekend and managed only 21 points in a 21-7 road win. On the road however, the Gamecocks have passed for 347.3 passing yards per game on a ridiculous 10.4 yards per pass attempt but the Florida Gators have the #12 ranked passing defense in the Nation in 2010 and at home they have allowed only 160.8 passing yards per game, their opponents have completed only 51.7% of their passes this season and the Gators have held those opponents to 5.6 yards per pass attempt while picking off a ton of passes. THAT'S RIGHT, FLORIDA HAS 11 INTERCEPTIONS IN ONLY 5 HOME GAMES THIS SEASON and that's obviously a huge problem for South Carolina because Stephen Garcia has thrown 9 interceptions this season the South Carolina QB's have combined to throw 12 picks on the year. Where this season could have gone for Florida had they not lost to LSU and Mississippi State at home earlier this season in consecutive weeks and when all looked like it was taking a turn for the worst, the Gators got their act together once and for all and have not looked back since beating Georgia and Vanderbilt in convincing fashion coming out of their BYE WEEK and they are 2-0 ATS since Urban Meyer has taken the time to work with the team and prepare them for the SEC Championship Game. South Carolina's defense has not been that great away from home as they have allowed 24.3 points per road game and have allowed 381.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games. The big concern? SOUTH CAROLINA HAS 0 INTERCEPTIONS ON THE ROAD THIS SEASON and in the SEC if you cannot force turnovers and get your team the ball back, you are not going to cover or win games. Plain and simple. That would probably be why the Gamecocks are 1-2 ATS on the road this season. In their last three games South Carolina have allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt and their secondary has been awful. The Gators don't have much of a deep game but they no doubt know how to take care of business and sniff out blood when they need to. Don't forget guys, the last time Steve Spurrier was here, he suffered the worst loss of his career (that 56-6 game I was talking about) and South Carolina has managed to win only 4 of the 30 lifetime games they have played in this series with Florida. OUCH! With the SEC East Division on the line and with Appalachian State on the menu next week for the Gators, this is obviously the game they want. I have to hand it to Spurrier, he has been very good throughout the course of his career coming off a straight up loss but South Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning home record and although I like them as underdogs, betting on South Carolina on the road has never been a profitable option. Florida is too good at home, they are too well prepared and the Gators are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a road team with a winning record away from home on the season. The Gators are also CASH MONEY at this time of the year every single season going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in November and they are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Since that stretch of football in October where all looked lost for the Gators and where they lost three straight games, this team has really turned things around and they looked great against Georgia two weeks ago. The Home Team has dominated this series for eight straight years now and Steve Spurrier seems to have some kind of jinx when he comes back to Gainesville as South Carolina is now 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to the SWAMP and I expect the Gators to put away the SEC East Division with two games to spare. This team can make you some money! Get on it.
Way too many points and I don't really know how anyone can bet on Arizona with full confidence. Southern California have been underdogs one time in four away games this season and that one time was as a +10 point underdog at Stanford, a game they almost won and lost 37-35 in the end. Of course there is absolutely nothing on the line tonight for the Trojans but Arizona has everything on the line as they sit at 5-4 SU on the season with three games remaining and those three games are tonight, and then Oregon and then Arizona State so there is a strong possibility that they completely miss out on the Bowl Season and USC knows very well that their only role in 2010 is the spoiler role and this is a big part of it. This is some shocking stuff but the last three times Southern California came to Tucson, Arizona has been shutout once, they've lost all three games and the Wildcats have averaged only 4.3 points per game in those three games scoring 13 points total combined. Having said that, things have changed significantly for USC since two years ago when Pete Carroll and his side show were running this town but now the Trojans defense has allowed 27.5 points per away game in 2010 and they have allowed 424.0 total yards of offense per game away from home. Arizona on the other hand have allowed only 17.5 points per home game in 2010 but they've played against some horrible road teams like Oregon State, Washington (14 points), California (9 points) and The Citadel (6 points). Having said that, if we've learned anything from this USC team so far in 2010 is that regardless of their post-season suspension, these kids are here to win, they don't like losing and their offense is one of the best in the Nation with all that So-Cal talent and they have shown it both at home and on the road. The Trojans average 41.5 points per AWAY GAME this season and they have done that on 510.8 total yards of offense per game so don't you worry about this offense keeping them around in this game and bailing out the defense. Arizona's secondary is in big trouble this afternoon. The Wildcats have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and QB Matt Barkley has been so good away from home averaging 297.0 passing yards per away game on a ridiculous 9.2 yards per pass attempt and obviously the Trojans are not going to back down from moving the ball in the air. On top of that the Trojans average 6.1 yards per carry when running the ball away from home and despite being one of the best run defenses in the PAC 10 Conference all season long, the Arizona Wildcats have started to crack a little bit and they have allowed 3.6 yards per carry in their last three games. USC is going to come at these guys from all angles and sides. Arizona was 0-7 SU heading into their road game at USC in 2009 but they finally beat the Trojans which should have been enough for a berth in the Rose Bowl (it wasn't). I talked about how good USC is defensively when they come to Tucson and the last three trips here (4.3 points per game allowed) are a good example but in 2010 USC ranks #97 in the Nation defensively against total yards, #101 in the Nation against the pass and #77 in the Nation in points allowed so there is little or no chance of them stopping Arizona and holding them to anything less than 20 points in this game. That's just a fact in my mind. I watched the entire Arizona State-USC game last weekend and I was on Arizona State but I wouldn't hesitate to back the Trojans as an underdog, let alone an underdog of this many points. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and USC HAS COVERED THE SPREAD IN 9 OF THEIR LAST 11 ROAD GAMES OVERALL AS AN UNDERDOG. The Trojans have always been a November team (22-8 ATS in their last 30 games played in November) and again they have been one of the most profitable road/away teams in college football when the underdog over the course of the last five seasons or so. Like I mentioned before, Arizona's secondary has all sorts of problems right now and they've been getting torched in recent games. That's bad news because Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they allow 280+ passing yards in the previous game and the Wildcats have always been a streaky team win or lose. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a loss of 20+ points the game before and there is no way a serious handicapper can trust a team like Arizona that has covered the spread only 3 of their last 13 times when a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. This is the first time in six years now that Southern California is the UNDERDOG and the Underdog (Arizona) is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. I think the double digit loss to Stanford really dejected Arizona and I don't think they can handle another high powered passing offense like USC's only a week removed from their torching at the hand of the Cardinal. I think this is one of the best lines we have seen all season and I will call for USC to win this game straight up in the end.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: ****40 Units****
Southern California 32, Arizona 29
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Southern California Trojans +4.5
Way too many points and I don't really know how anyone can bet on Arizona with full confidence. Southern California have been underdogs one time in four away games this season and that one time was as a +10 point underdog at Stanford, a game they almost won and lost 37-35 in the end. Of course there is absolutely nothing on the line tonight for the Trojans but Arizona has everything on the line as they sit at 5-4 SU on the season with three games remaining and those three games are tonight, and then Oregon and then Arizona State so there is a strong possibility that they completely miss out on the Bowl Season and USC knows very well that their only role in 2010 is the spoiler role and this is a big part of it. This is some shocking stuff but the last three times Southern California came to Tucson, Arizona has been shutout once, they've lost all three games and the Wildcats have averaged only 4.3 points per game in those three games scoring 13 points total combined. Having said that, things have changed significantly for USC since two years ago when Pete Carroll and his side show were running this town but now the Trojans defense has allowed 27.5 points per away game in 2010 and they have allowed 424.0 total yards of offense per game away from home. Arizona on the other hand have allowed only 17.5 points per home game in 2010 but they've played against some horrible road teams like Oregon State, Washington (14 points), California (9 points) and The Citadel (6 points). Having said that, if we've learned anything from this USC team so far in 2010 is that regardless of their post-season suspension, these kids are here to win, they don't like losing and their offense is one of the best in the Nation with all that So-Cal talent and they have shown it both at home and on the road. The Trojans average 41.5 points per AWAY GAME this season and they have done that on 510.8 total yards of offense per game so don't you worry about this offense keeping them around in this game and bailing out the defense. Arizona's secondary is in big trouble this afternoon. The Wildcats have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt in their last three games and QB Matt Barkley has been so good away from home averaging 297.0 passing yards per away game on a ridiculous 9.2 yards per pass attempt and obviously the Trojans are not going to back down from moving the ball in the air. On top of that the Trojans average 6.1 yards per carry when running the ball away from home and despite being one of the best run defenses in the PAC 10 Conference all season long, the Arizona Wildcats have started to crack a little bit and they have allowed 3.6 yards per carry in their last three games. USC is going to come at these guys from all angles and sides. Arizona was 0-7 SU heading into their road game at USC in 2009 but they finally beat the Trojans which should have been enough for a berth in the Rose Bowl (it wasn't). I talked about how good USC is defensively when they come to Tucson and the last three trips here (4.3 points per game allowed) are a good example but in 2010 USC ranks #97 in the Nation defensively against total yards, #101 in the Nation against the pass and #77 in the Nation in points allowed so there is little or no chance of them stopping Arizona and holding them to anything less than 20 points in this game. That's just a fact in my mind. I watched the entire Arizona State-USC game last weekend and I was on Arizona State but I wouldn't hesitate to back the Trojans as an underdog, let alone an underdog of this many points. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and USC HAS COVERED THE SPREAD IN 9 OF THEIR LAST 11 ROAD GAMES OVERALL AS AN UNDERDOG. The Trojans have always been a November team (22-8 ATS in their last 30 games played in November) and again they have been one of the most profitable road/away teams in college football when the underdog over the course of the last five seasons or so. Like I mentioned before, Arizona's secondary has all sorts of problems right now and they've been getting torched in recent games. That's bad news because Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they allow 280+ passing yards in the previous game and the Wildcats have always been a streaky team win or lose. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a loss of 20+ points the game before and there is no way a serious handicapper can trust a team like Arizona that has covered the spread only 3 of their last 13 times when a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. This is the first time in six years now that Southern California is the UNDERDOG and the Underdog (Arizona) is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. I think the double digit loss to Stanford really dejected Arizona and I don't think they can handle another high powered passing offense like USC's only a week removed from their torching at the hand of the Cardinal. I think this is one of the best lines we have seen all season and I will call for USC to win this game straight up in the end.
It's funny how no matter what their result the previous week, the betting public continues to back Florida State at home. This is a massive game for both teams with the ACC Atlantic Division still wide open and available for the taking to Clemson, Florida State, Maryland and NC State who all have a chance to represent this Division in the ACC Conference Championship Game. That brings me to the fact that Florida State is coming off an embarrassing home loss to North Carolina on HomeComing last weekend (37-35 as a -10.5 point favorite) yet the boys down The Strip continue to give the Noles the benefit of the doubt. That's probably because Florida State beat BYU by 24 points here, they beat Wake Forest by 31 points here (shutout win) and then they handled their business over Boston College, a team that had always come to Tallahassee and given them all sorts of problems. Florida State knows the importance of this game today not only because Clemson is only one game behind them in the Division race with three games to go for both teams and a loss here would put them in a dreaded tie with no tiebreaker advantages, but the Noles know they have Florida in their home finale in a few weeks and they cannot count on that for a win. This is it, beat Clemson and you pretty go to the ACC Conference Championship Game. Clemson is on the other side of the coin and they know they have to win or they are done. The Tigers are coming off a 14-13 home win over NC State but just barely and they trailed for the most part of that game anyways. Here is my big problem with Clemson...THEY ARE 0-3 SU (2-1 ATS) IN THEIR THREE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON losing by 3 at Auburn and then losing by 5 at Miami and then losing by 6 points at Boson College and the margin of defeat seems to be increasing by the road game. Also keep in mind that Clemson lost by 14 points here in 2008 and despite winning here in 2006, they are 1-4 SU in their last five trips to Tallahassee and the four losses have all been by 10+ points so in the end if you like Florida State to win you might as well back them on the spread as well because they usually beat the Tigers by double digits. IMPORTANT INJURY UPDATE: Clemson RB ANDRE ELLINGTON IS OUT TONIGHT and he was worth 684 rushing yards on the season with 12 catches in the air and was responsible for 12 touchdowns (air and ground) so this is a huge loss for Clemson and they are going to struggle to replace him at the tailback position. Florida State has the #11 ranked run defense in the Nation this season and they allow only 92.2 rushing yards per home game this season and allow only 2.5 yards per carry in those games so the fact that Ellington is out means the Tigers are really one dimensional in this game today and we know what we have coming. The problem with betting on Clemson is that they have a pedestrian offense at 16.7 points per away game in 2010 and their passing attack has also been pedestrian in those games as QB Kyle Parker has completed only 55.4% of his passes away from home this season and averages only 5.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. The Seminoles are going to bring the HOUSE IN THIS GAME AS THEY HAVE 27 SACKS IN FIVE HOME GAMES THIS SEASON and with all that pressure I really have no idea how Clemson is going to get anything going on offense. Florida State doesn't have a problem scoring points at home averaging 36.6 points per home game on 415.6 total yards of offense per game. The Noles have a prolific passing attack at home with a Senior QB Christian Ponder who is averaging 232.6 passing yards per home game and who is also averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt when playing in Campbell stadium. Talk about a bad matchup for Clemson. Despite having the #28 ranked pass defense in College Football in 2010, Clemson has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road and the Seminoles are going to take advantage of that and take some deep shots with their deep threat receivers knowing that on the road the deep ball has been a huge problem for Clemson this season. I have to say I am not impressed at all with Florida State's defense and the 28.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games played but this is a STATEMENT GAME FOR FLORIDA STATE with the Division on the line and playing against a team missing their star RB and playing with a very shaky QB. Believe me some of the players on this Seminoles team have not forgotten the 40-24 drubbing in Clemson last year at the hands of these same Tigers a game that saw CJ Spiller go for some 300+ yards by himself but Spiller is gone, Ellington is out and the Tigers offense has been trash away from home. The Home Team in this series has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and like I mentioned before, the margin of victory for the Home Team has been double digits so pick a side and bet the spread with confidence. Clemson was great defensively against NC State at home last week and there is no disputing they have one of the best defense in the ACC Conference but they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points the game before and this is typically a letdown spot for this defense. Clemson is also another one of those teams that has been ultra profitable as a road underdog the last three or four seasons and I appreciate that most of the time but they are only 1-2 ATS on the road so far this season and they are now only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus ACC Conference opponents and that's not going to work against a home team desperate for a big win. Florida State has been pretty good after losing games and they do have nice bounce backs as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss and right now their run defense is playing like one of the best run defenses in the Nation. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, they don't have to worry about Clemson's running game today because RB Andre Ellington is out and that should allow the Noles to tee off against a Clemson passing attack that has been shaky away from home. Don't forget, 27 sacks in five home games for Florida State. THE HOME TEAM IS 11-1 ATS IN THE LAST 12 MEETINGS and Clemson has always been awful in Tallahassee where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to this place. The ACC Atlantic Division is on the line today and coming off that home loss to North Carolina last weekend, you better believe Jimbo Fisher is going to have his guys ready for this one. NOLES ROLL BIG TIME!
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: ***40 Units***
Florida State 32, Clemson 14
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Florida State Seminoles -6
It's funny how no matter what their result the previous week, the betting public continues to back Florida State at home. This is a massive game for both teams with the ACC Atlantic Division still wide open and available for the taking to Clemson, Florida State, Maryland and NC State who all have a chance to represent this Division in the ACC Conference Championship Game. That brings me to the fact that Florida State is coming off an embarrassing home loss to North Carolina on HomeComing last weekend (37-35 as a -10.5 point favorite) yet the boys down The Strip continue to give the Noles the benefit of the doubt. That's probably because Florida State beat BYU by 24 points here, they beat Wake Forest by 31 points here (shutout win) and then they handled their business over Boston College, a team that had always come to Tallahassee and given them all sorts of problems. Florida State knows the importance of this game today not only because Clemson is only one game behind them in the Division race with three games to go for both teams and a loss here would put them in a dreaded tie with no tiebreaker advantages, but the Noles know they have Florida in their home finale in a few weeks and they cannot count on that for a win. This is it, beat Clemson and you pretty go to the ACC Conference Championship Game. Clemson is on the other side of the coin and they know they have to win or they are done. The Tigers are coming off a 14-13 home win over NC State but just barely and they trailed for the most part of that game anyways. Here is my big problem with Clemson...THEY ARE 0-3 SU (2-1 ATS) IN THEIR THREE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON losing by 3 at Auburn and then losing by 5 at Miami and then losing by 6 points at Boson College and the margin of defeat seems to be increasing by the road game. Also keep in mind that Clemson lost by 14 points here in 2008 and despite winning here in 2006, they are 1-4 SU in their last five trips to Tallahassee and the four losses have all been by 10+ points so in the end if you like Florida State to win you might as well back them on the spread as well because they usually beat the Tigers by double digits. IMPORTANT INJURY UPDATE: Clemson RB ANDRE ELLINGTON IS OUT TONIGHT and he was worth 684 rushing yards on the season with 12 catches in the air and was responsible for 12 touchdowns (air and ground) so this is a huge loss for Clemson and they are going to struggle to replace him at the tailback position. Florida State has the #11 ranked run defense in the Nation this season and they allow only 92.2 rushing yards per home game this season and allow only 2.5 yards per carry in those games so the fact that Ellington is out means the Tigers are really one dimensional in this game today and we know what we have coming. The problem with betting on Clemson is that they have a pedestrian offense at 16.7 points per away game in 2010 and their passing attack has also been pedestrian in those games as QB Kyle Parker has completed only 55.4% of his passes away from home this season and averages only 5.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. The Seminoles are going to bring the HOUSE IN THIS GAME AS THEY HAVE 27 SACKS IN FIVE HOME GAMES THIS SEASON and with all that pressure I really have no idea how Clemson is going to get anything going on offense. Florida State doesn't have a problem scoring points at home averaging 36.6 points per home game on 415.6 total yards of offense per game. The Noles have a prolific passing attack at home with a Senior QB Christian Ponder who is averaging 232.6 passing yards per home game and who is also averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt when playing in Campbell stadium. Talk about a bad matchup for Clemson. Despite having the #28 ranked pass defense in College Football in 2010, Clemson has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt on the road and the Seminoles are going to take advantage of that and take some deep shots with their deep threat receivers knowing that on the road the deep ball has been a huge problem for Clemson this season. I have to say I am not impressed at all with Florida State's defense and the 28.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games played but this is a STATEMENT GAME FOR FLORIDA STATE with the Division on the line and playing against a team missing their star RB and playing with a very shaky QB. Believe me some of the players on this Seminoles team have not forgotten the 40-24 drubbing in Clemson last year at the hands of these same Tigers a game that saw CJ Spiller go for some 300+ yards by himself but Spiller is gone, Ellington is out and the Tigers offense has been trash away from home. The Home Team in this series has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and like I mentioned before, the margin of victory for the Home Team has been double digits so pick a side and bet the spread with confidence. Clemson was great defensively against NC State at home last week and there is no disputing they have one of the best defense in the ACC Conference but they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 20 points the game before and this is typically a letdown spot for this defense. Clemson is also another one of those teams that has been ultra profitable as a road underdog the last three or four seasons and I appreciate that most of the time but they are only 1-2 ATS on the road so far this season and they are now only 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus ACC Conference opponents and that's not going to work against a home team desperate for a big win. Florida State has been pretty good after losing games and they do have nice bounce backs as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss and right now their run defense is playing like one of the best run defenses in the Nation. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, they don't have to worry about Clemson's running game today because RB Andre Ellington is out and that should allow the Noles to tee off against a Clemson passing attack that has been shaky away from home. Don't forget, 27 sacks in five home games for Florida State. THE HOME TEAM IS 11-1 ATS IN THE LAST 12 MEETINGS and Clemson has always been awful in Tallahassee where they are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to this place. The ACC Atlantic Division is on the line today and coming off that home loss to North Carolina last weekend, you better believe Jimbo Fisher is going to have his guys ready for this one. NOLES ROLL BIG TIME!
So much juice today on this card but sometimes that's the way you have to go and November is the one month where the good are separated from the bad and so far in 2010 Texas has been bad. The Longhorns are done for 2010 at 4-5 SU on the year and only 2-4 SU in Big 12 Conference play and no matter what they do from here on in they cannot win the Big 12 South Division but the Cowboys can win it and they have to beat Texas and Oklahoma to do it. Right now both Baylor and Oklahoma sit one game behind the Cowboys in the Big 12 Conference South Division standings so again the importance of winning out is stressed every week for an Oklahoma State team that is coming off a blowout home win over Baylor and that is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games this season. This is the same Oklahoma State team that went to Texas Tech and won by 17 points and the same Oklahoma State team that went to Kansas State and destroyed the Wildcats 24-14 as a -3.5 point road favorite in that game. Texas on the other hand have lost three straight games for the first time in who knows how long as they are coming off losses to Iowa State at home (by seven points) and Baylor at home (by 8 points) and to Kansas State (by 25 points on the road) so all three of their losses have been by more than the 5 points listed today and Oklahoma State is arguably the best team in the Big 12 Conference so far this season. RB Tre Newton is out for Texas today (3 touchdowns on the season) and that's a problem. Oklahoma State has the #3 ranked offense in the Nation coming into this game and Texas has been awful at home in 2010 allowing 24.8 points per home game in what is turning out to be more of a rebuilding year than anyone really thought possible for such a big name program. Oklahoma State has one of the most prolific passing attacks in the Nation and they average 335.0 passing yards per road game this season and average 8.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. Texas has all sorts of problems in their secondary although their run defense is where they have had the most problems allowing 189.7 rushing yards per game their last three games and allowing 4.3 yards per carry in those games. Despite having one of the best passing offenses in the Nation, the Cowboys also have the #25 ranked run game so they can shake and bake as much as they want in this game and have success. If they choose to throw the ball, Texas has allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. If they want to run the ball, the Cowboys are averaging 6.4 yards per carry in their last three games so the fact that Texas is having a down year on the defensive side of things is more so a problem this week than it has been all season. How about the Longhorns offense? Well they have suffered too and average only 22.2 points per home game and only 22.3 points total on the season which is good enough for the #91 ranked points scored offense in the Country. One of the biggest problems for Oklahoma State has always been TEXAS as OKLAHOMA STATE IS 2-22 SU IN THEIR LAST 24 GAMES VERSUS THE HORNS and they have not beat them since the 1997 season. Texas got used to winning every year against the Cowboys but that's about to come to an end and although some expect another performance like the one against Nebraska a few weeks ago, I just don't see it from the Horns. When the Oklahoma State offense is rolling they are rolling as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they pass for 280+ passing yards. If you have concerns about betting on Oklahoma State away from home as a favorite, I recommend squashing those concerns because they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as a favorite and they already have a road win as a favorite against Kansas State this season. The Cowboys are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games and this is somewhat of a generous line to say the least. Texas is now 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss of 20+ points (a clear indication that oddsmakers expect too much from these guys after a huge loss) and the Longhorns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. That's just awful. The Favorite has covered the spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings in this series (all Texas by the way) and for the first time in 13 years, Oklahoma State is going to beat the Longhorns and be well on their way to the Big 12 Conference Championship Game in a rematch of their 51-41 home loss to the Huskers on HomeComing weekend about three weeks ago. The Cowboys would love that re-match and I don't see them having problems in Austin.
RECOMMENDED INVESTMENT: **20 Units**
Oklahoma State 34, Texas 18
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will add one more...
Oklahoma State Cowboys -5
So much juice today on this card but sometimes that's the way you have to go and November is the one month where the good are separated from the bad and so far in 2010 Texas has been bad. The Longhorns are done for 2010 at 4-5 SU on the year and only 2-4 SU in Big 12 Conference play and no matter what they do from here on in they cannot win the Big 12 South Division but the Cowboys can win it and they have to beat Texas and Oklahoma to do it. Right now both Baylor and Oklahoma sit one game behind the Cowboys in the Big 12 Conference South Division standings so again the importance of winning out is stressed every week for an Oklahoma State team that is coming off a blowout home win over Baylor and that is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games this season. This is the same Oklahoma State team that went to Texas Tech and won by 17 points and the same Oklahoma State team that went to Kansas State and destroyed the Wildcats 24-14 as a -3.5 point road favorite in that game. Texas on the other hand have lost three straight games for the first time in who knows how long as they are coming off losses to Iowa State at home (by seven points) and Baylor at home (by 8 points) and to Kansas State (by 25 points on the road) so all three of their losses have been by more than the 5 points listed today and Oklahoma State is arguably the best team in the Big 12 Conference so far this season. RB Tre Newton is out for Texas today (3 touchdowns on the season) and that's a problem. Oklahoma State has the #3 ranked offense in the Nation coming into this game and Texas has been awful at home in 2010 allowing 24.8 points per home game in what is turning out to be more of a rebuilding year than anyone really thought possible for such a big name program. Oklahoma State has one of the most prolific passing attacks in the Nation and they average 335.0 passing yards per road game this season and average 8.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. Texas has all sorts of problems in their secondary although their run defense is where they have had the most problems allowing 189.7 rushing yards per game their last three games and allowing 4.3 yards per carry in those games. Despite having one of the best passing offenses in the Nation, the Cowboys also have the #25 ranked run game so they can shake and bake as much as they want in this game and have success. If they choose to throw the ball, Texas has allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. If they want to run the ball, the Cowboys are averaging 6.4 yards per carry in their last three games so the fact that Texas is having a down year on the defensive side of things is more so a problem this week than it has been all season. How about the Longhorns offense? Well they have suffered too and average only 22.2 points per home game and only 22.3 points total on the season which is good enough for the #91 ranked points scored offense in the Country. One of the biggest problems for Oklahoma State has always been TEXAS as OKLAHOMA STATE IS 2-22 SU IN THEIR LAST 24 GAMES VERSUS THE HORNS and they have not beat them since the 1997 season. Texas got used to winning every year against the Cowboys but that's about to come to an end and although some expect another performance like the one against Nebraska a few weeks ago, I just don't see it from the Horns. When the Oklahoma State offense is rolling they are rolling as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they pass for 280+ passing yards. If you have concerns about betting on Oklahoma State away from home as a favorite, I recommend squashing those concerns because they are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as a favorite and they already have a road win as a favorite against Kansas State this season. The Cowboys are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games and this is somewhat of a generous line to say the least. Texas is now 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss of 20+ points (a clear indication that oddsmakers expect too much from these guys after a huge loss) and the Longhorns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record on the season. That's just awful. The Favorite has covered the spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings in this series (all Texas by the way) and for the first time in 13 years, Oklahoma State is going to beat the Longhorns and be well on their way to the Big 12 Conference Championship Game in a rematch of their 51-41 home loss to the Huskers on HomeComing weekend about three weeks ago. The Cowboys would love that re-match and I don't see them having problems in Austin.
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6 Ohio State -18 Texas Tech-Oklahoma 'UNDER' 64 Virginia Tech -3.5 Florida -6.5 Southern California +4.5 Florida State -6 Oklahoma State -5
1-2 ATS (-34.00 Units)
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK! Should be a great Saturday. For some reason have tons of juice but nonetheless love the picks and looking to kill the books. Enjoy!
0
WEEK 11
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6 Ohio State -18 Texas Tech-Oklahoma 'UNDER' 64 Virginia Tech -3.5 Florida -6.5 Southern California +4.5 Florida State -6 Oklahoma State -5
1-2 ATS (-34.00 Units)
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE THIS WEEK! Should be a great Saturday. For some reason have tons of juice but nonetheless love the picks and looking to kill the books. Enjoy!
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6 Ohio State -18 Texas Tech-Oklahoma 'UNDER' 64 Virginia Tech -3.5 Florida -6.5 Southern California +4.5 Florida State -6 Oklahoma State -5
4-2 ATS (+56.00 Units) this week!
Perfect 3-0 ATS to start this Saturday after a rough week and looking
for more winners tonight. Crazy action so far today, tons of money still
on the table, I don't think I will be adding more plays.
0
Some nice winners to start the day
WEEK 11
Northern Illinois -11.5 Bowling Green +2.5 Pittsburgh -6 Ohio State -18 Texas Tech-Oklahoma 'UNDER' 64 Virginia Tech -3.5 Florida -6.5 Southern California +4.5 Florida State -6 Oklahoma State -5
4-2 ATS (+56.00 Units) this week!
Perfect 3-0 ATS to start this Saturday after a rough week and looking
for more winners tonight. Crazy action so far today, tons of money still
on the table, I don't think I will be adding more plays.
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you can't trust UCONN defense in general or you can't trust UCONN defence at home? 
that couldn't write anything this good so they HATE
on the post and sound stupid....
Its funny how all the HATERS always post on guys/girls that have winning records..what are you jealous that this guy is winning and you are losing????
...they always post when you lose that ONE game out of TEN that you played that week.
best fade around
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