Posted:
#1
64-43-2 YTD +322.8 Units
Hit with NC State last night. Just another great spot for a team to pick up a win and they did. Wont be around this weekend, heading to DC, a little Mandarin Oriental - if you guys are from the area and have some spots to hit tomorrow night, let me know. Its my first time to the area.
Dropping the whole card now....
10 Units Iowa -6.5
After fading Iowa last week, I think this is a great time to jump on them. They have the intangibles in their factor and this is what I play. MSU is not used to playing meaningful games this late into the year. Iowa has the team thats been there and done this before. They are home - we have seen MSU on the road agaist less talented teams and its not too impressive. They got blown off the ball by Northwestern all game and Iowa has the skill position players to capitalize on that a bit more than NW did. Think MSU used a lot of energy in that win last week and I dont see them being able to compete for all 60 here.
10 Units Texas -7
More of a fade of Baylor. They just made themselves bowl eligible for the first time in forever and celebrated like it. Played an epic long game against Kst and now have to hit to the road to play the best defense they have seen all year. I dont have Griffin running wild like he has lately. I think Texas gets this done comfortably. They should be able to move the ball a bit if they take the reins off Gilbert a bit more - this kid was a huge prospect for UT, its just that he is being handled with kid gloves, I think that stops sooner than later.
10 Units UCF -7.5 ev
Just playing against ECU and their lack of a defense. UCF is the class of the conference and the big line here should be a clear indicator.
10 Units UCLA +9.5
Just playing the home team here. Zona is good, but not good enough, imo, to lay this kind of chalk on the road. Its also a weak opening line for a favorite. Think the Pistol can take advantage of the agressive Zona D Ends. Fresh of a 30 point whipping, I dont blame anyone for wanting to bet Zona, but you are buying this team sort of high. See after the Iowa game for buying Zona high.
20 Units Air Force +7
This is the biggest joke line of the week. I mean, are you serious? Why on earth is Utah this big of a favorite here? Oh, you mean perception? And name recognition? Well, those are my two favorite things to play against.
Lets call a spade a spade - Utah has played nobody. I mean, nobody. The worst SOS out of any team in the top 50. Why would you schedule your first contest 8 weeks into the year? On the road, no less? This is a scheduling nightmare and one Utah is going to regret. This is a scheduling reprieve for Air Force. They welcome Utah. This is not last years Utah team. Wynn is a hell of an underachiever - he should be putting up Heisman #s against this type of competition.
Lookout....look who Utah has next week....uh-oh.
20 Units Ole Miss +7
I think that Ole Miss can stop the run a bit here. They have been able to hold some good teams under their season averages and have actually, like Auburn, won the rushing battle in most of their contests this year. Also, this isnt the same Ole Miss team you saw in September. They are much improved, but lets not even talk about things like that....
Throw the players out the window here. I could care less. I am betting on a team that has the #1 team in the country coming into town. They have a showcased Saturday game on National TV. Sold-out crowd, loud as hell, this is what teams live for. After a rough start, this is Ole Miss's superbowl.
Auburn comes in with a huge target on their back and everything to lose. Ole Miss is in the exact opposite situation. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. They are the team with no pressure. This is a fantastic spot to be in.
Ole Miss, unlike LSU, has plenty of playmakers that can put up points on Auburn. I gotta go with the team getting a great line at home in a fantastic situation.
10 Units USC +7
See the above.....
Oregon just put up 60 freaking points in their most recent game - a nationally televised Thursday night contest. Can you say buying high?
Still not sold on the Oregon defense. Think USC should not only be able to run, but be able to throw as well. Oregon is a machine, but this is the toughest environment their young QB will have been in all year. I am not sold on young QBs on the road.
Again, a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain against a team in the opposite situation.
10 Units Duke +14
I do this often, hit an underdog and then fade them the next week when they are favored. The theory is off a big win that you see inherent line value and an overreaction by the average bettor.
Duke has the offense to stay within 14 of Navy. Duke has played a monster schedule as well. This is one of the worst teams they are going to see all year.
Navy in the favorite role is nothing to write home about.
10 Units Wake Forest +5.5
Never bet on a team off a SU win as underdogs when they are favored the following week. See above....
Think Wake can move the ball on Mary all day. Wake has trouble with the pass, but Mary has trouble passing. Think they can contain Scott enough to squeak out a W here.
10 Units Nebraska -7.5
Again, fading a team I won on last week. Mizzou off the biggest win in school history. Now they have to go on the road to face a buzzsaw defense. Not the best spot for them here.
They havent seen a rushing attack like what Nebraska will throw at them on Saturday. This is just a terrible spot for Mizzou. I dont see any single way they can keep the intensity of last week. Nebraska also has corners that can stuff the WRs at the line and disrupt timing - something OU refused to do.
5 Units Indiana +3 ev
5 Units Indiana +3.5
Just fading Northwestern here. Forget the players. NW just lost homecoming in the last minutes on some craziness. They started to shit the bed royally and then had the loss rubbed in a bit more when their defense was carried by an MSU RB across the goalline. I have this team being demoralized. Going on the road? Yikes. I dont see this as a good recipe. NW played their best game of the year last year, I dont see the intensity being the same.
Chappell should be able to throw ALL DAY.
10 Units Kansas +20
I wasnt going to play this, but it just hit 20 at my book and I think thats a travesty. Fading Iowa State off huge win on the road. Coming home and DD favorites? Thats overvalued if you ask me. Sandwich game etc.
Good Luck with your wagers....
Some that just got left off...
Cal - Idaho - PSU - Mar - UF - UW
Hit with NC State last night. Just another great spot for a team to pick up a win and they did. Wont be around this weekend, heading to DC, a little Mandarin Oriental - if you guys are from the area and have some spots to hit tomorrow night, let me know. Its my first time to the area.
Dropping the whole card now....
10 Units Iowa -6.5
After fading Iowa last week, I think this is a great time to jump on them. They have the intangibles in their factor and this is what I play. MSU is not used to playing meaningful games this late into the year. Iowa has the team thats been there and done this before. They are home - we have seen MSU on the road agaist less talented teams and its not too impressive. They got blown off the ball by Northwestern all game and Iowa has the skill position players to capitalize on that a bit more than NW did. Think MSU used a lot of energy in that win last week and I dont see them being able to compete for all 60 here.
10 Units Texas -7
More of a fade of Baylor. They just made themselves bowl eligible for the first time in forever and celebrated like it. Played an epic long game against Kst and now have to hit to the road to play the best defense they have seen all year. I dont have Griffin running wild like he has lately. I think Texas gets this done comfortably. They should be able to move the ball a bit if they take the reins off Gilbert a bit more - this kid was a huge prospect for UT, its just that he is being handled with kid gloves, I think that stops sooner than later.
10 Units UCF -7.5 ev
Just playing against ECU and their lack of a defense. UCF is the class of the conference and the big line here should be a clear indicator.
10 Units UCLA +9.5
Just playing the home team here. Zona is good, but not good enough, imo, to lay this kind of chalk on the road. Its also a weak opening line for a favorite. Think the Pistol can take advantage of the agressive Zona D Ends. Fresh of a 30 point whipping, I dont blame anyone for wanting to bet Zona, but you are buying this team sort of high. See after the Iowa game for buying Zona high.
20 Units Air Force +7
This is the biggest joke line of the week. I mean, are you serious? Why on earth is Utah this big of a favorite here? Oh, you mean perception? And name recognition? Well, those are my two favorite things to play against.
Lets call a spade a spade - Utah has played nobody. I mean, nobody. The worst SOS out of any team in the top 50. Why would you schedule your first contest 8 weeks into the year? On the road, no less? This is a scheduling nightmare and one Utah is going to regret. This is a scheduling reprieve for Air Force. They welcome Utah. This is not last years Utah team. Wynn is a hell of an underachiever - he should be putting up Heisman #s against this type of competition.
Lookout....look who Utah has next week....uh-oh.
20 Units Ole Miss +7
I think that Ole Miss can stop the run a bit here. They have been able to hold some good teams under their season averages and have actually, like Auburn, won the rushing battle in most of their contests this year. Also, this isnt the same Ole Miss team you saw in September. They are much improved, but lets not even talk about things like that....
Throw the players out the window here. I could care less. I am betting on a team that has the #1 team in the country coming into town. They have a showcased Saturday game on National TV. Sold-out crowd, loud as hell, this is what teams live for. After a rough start, this is Ole Miss's superbowl.
Auburn comes in with a huge target on their back and everything to lose. Ole Miss is in the exact opposite situation. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. They are the team with no pressure. This is a fantastic spot to be in.
Ole Miss, unlike LSU, has plenty of playmakers that can put up points on Auburn. I gotta go with the team getting a great line at home in a fantastic situation.
10 Units USC +7
See the above.....
Oregon just put up 60 freaking points in their most recent game - a nationally televised Thursday night contest. Can you say buying high?
Still not sold on the Oregon defense. Think USC should not only be able to run, but be able to throw as well. Oregon is a machine, but this is the toughest environment their young QB will have been in all year. I am not sold on young QBs on the road.
Again, a team with nothing to lose and everything to gain against a team in the opposite situation.
10 Units Duke +14
I do this often, hit an underdog and then fade them the next week when they are favored. The theory is off a big win that you see inherent line value and an overreaction by the average bettor.
Duke has the offense to stay within 14 of Navy. Duke has played a monster schedule as well. This is one of the worst teams they are going to see all year.
Navy in the favorite role is nothing to write home about.
10 Units Wake Forest +5.5
Never bet on a team off a SU win as underdogs when they are favored the following week. See above....
Think Wake can move the ball on Mary all day. Wake has trouble with the pass, but Mary has trouble passing. Think they can contain Scott enough to squeak out a W here.
10 Units Nebraska -7.5
Again, fading a team I won on last week. Mizzou off the biggest win in school history. Now they have to go on the road to face a buzzsaw defense. Not the best spot for them here.
They havent seen a rushing attack like what Nebraska will throw at them on Saturday. This is just a terrible spot for Mizzou. I dont see any single way they can keep the intensity of last week. Nebraska also has corners that can stuff the WRs at the line and disrupt timing - something OU refused to do.
5 Units Indiana +3 ev
5 Units Indiana +3.5
Just fading Northwestern here. Forget the players. NW just lost homecoming in the last minutes on some craziness. They started to shit the bed royally and then had the loss rubbed in a bit more when their defense was carried by an MSU RB across the goalline. I have this team being demoralized. Going on the road? Yikes. I dont see this as a good recipe. NW played their best game of the year last year, I dont see the intensity being the same.
Chappell should be able to throw ALL DAY.
10 Units Kansas +20
I wasnt going to play this, but it just hit 20 at my book and I think thats a travesty. Fading Iowa State off huge win on the road. Coming home and DD favorites? Thats overvalued if you ask me. Sandwich game etc.
Good Luck with your wagers....
Some that just got left off...
Cal - Idaho - PSU - Mar - UF - UW
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God help you. 
Penn St. could have a back-up O-lineman play QB and still score on that defense. Good luck this weekend 
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