Glad to return for a fifth year on the forum! Given that hope springs eternal, my resume is unchanged. I’m low on flamboyance, with a capping style that is decidedly technical. I am a Pascal programmer. A number-cruncher. And a slave to data/history. I use a self-created algorithm comprised of historic trends culled from a 2013-25 database (8541 games).
During this past off-season I did my dutiful research, but also an autopsy on my 2025 performance. In general, I found not-enough trends populated the algorithm. Which meant, paradoxically, that I relied too much on quality -- at the expense of quantity. Trends can have historical quality (high success rate), but…….they need to also exhibit reasonable quantity/reliability.
Many years ago, I used a purely generic algorithm (no Power Ratings). It evolved to be less successful, but came from a powerful amount of data (1976-2012 / 19,588 games). This season will foundationally bring a retro mix of generic and PRs, with more-trends posited in the algorithm. Big picture -- if history repeats, there is hope for my system. OTOH, if the future diverges from its noble-past; then success becomes more elusive for me.
Full disclosure on 2025 performance – the system lacked rank-value. Very disappointing. The rank-value attribute is a large measure of system predictive worth, especially for technical cappers (like me) who generate large volume. So, I failed to bring that last year. The algorithm’s weekly top-pick did bring value (9-5, .643), but that’s where it ended. In the overall, the 2025 system was not impressive (97-86-1, .530).
However, that was then. This week we have 8 games on the board; next week 48 games. So, in technical terms, we shall soon be awash in opportunity. For the record, my selections for this first Saturday are: Memphis(+5.5)/UNLV Hawaii(+3.5)/Stanford
As a tech guy, I tend to bring volume each week. And volume is a positive -- when linked with reasonable success. Albeit, my overall geek-approach will have limited interest for many. However, in the end, I hope to make a positive contribution to the forum. And, I wish all of you well in the challenging new season ahead.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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