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#1
I have been blindly tailing some people on the bowl games this year and I have been losing my ass. I shouldn't have won money for doing nothing so I guess in a way its a reminder to wakeup and not rely on others. Now come the bowl games with teams from major power conferences starting tommorow. The teams from the power conferences are my bread and butter IMO because these are the teams I follow the most and watch the most. Anyways here's my pick and writeup for tommorrow. I am very confident in this pick because of a lot of angles that I see in this game that I simply can't ignore. Anyways here goes:
UNC ML over West Virginia
UNC has a few huge advantages in this game. First and foremost coaching. I will take Butch Davis who is 5-0 in bowl games any day over that idiot Bill Stewart. Stewart had a clock management issue vs Colorado earlier this yr that was one of the biggest coaching blunders of the season and cost WV the game. WV has also seriously underachieved this season because of poor play calling in the red zone. This team simply can't score tds inside the redzone and they generate most of their tds on long runs. There is a very good reason why WV went from a potent offense last yr to the 2008 version which is 65th in yards per game and 75th in scoring at a measly 24 ppg. The main reason WV struggles in the red zone is because they suck in short yardage situations. They struggle running between the tackles because they don't have a power back and because they have an undersized line. This team was stuffed multiple times in short yardage situations all yr especially in the redzone which resulted in Fgs. Owen Schmidt has also proved to be a huge loss.
Another advantage UNC has is motivation. UNC hasn't played in a bowl game since 2004 and will want to use this game as a springboard for next season with a very young team this yr. WV has a veteran squad who is most likely disappointed that they aren't playing in another BCS game.
Another huge advantage is location. This game is being played in UNC's backyard and they should have a clear advanatge in the stands. The players should also be jacked considering its a home game basically.
Another huge advantage is UNC's defensive personnel vs the WV offense. I love this matchup for UNC. UNC is a very fast and aggressive defense. This defense plays similarly to So Florida who held WV to 13 pts and Pitt who held WV to 15 pts. UNC is anchored inside by a great tandem at DT in Marvin Austin 6-4 300 and Cam Thomas 6-4 330. These two should occupy blockers which will allow their fast LBs to move sideline to sideline. These guys have the speed necessary to stop this type of offense. They were excellent earlier this yr vs GA Tech (7 pts allowed) who everyone had problems with all season long and who runs a similar spread option offense that WV does. WV is 109th in the country in passing and UNC has some athletic Cbs as well as an elite playmaking safety in Goodard. Goodard has 7 ints this yr, 5 pass breakups, and 2 forced fumbles.
On offense UNC has been inconsistent but they have some playmakers and they also have an advanatage with the layoff so QB T.J. Yates can get healthy. UNC has 2 great Wrs in Hicks and Foster. These two can create mismatches on the outside. Yates looked very good vs Duke and he has 9 tds and 3 ints on the yr. I think he will be prepared and have a solid day tommorrow. UNC should be able to run the ball as well as WV has an overrated run D. I have seen this team 5 or 6 times this season consisntely get beaten at the Point of Attack. UNC has a big strong OL and should be able to generate a push vs WV's DL as well as get to the 2nd level Lbs. WV was gashed on the ground by Colorado 187, Auburn 145, Louisville 198, Pitt 190, and So Fla 167. Those last 3 games were the last 3 games WV played and they lost 2 of them. WV is also very poor in short yardage situations on defense as their Lbs hit Rbs and let them fall forward. UNC's physicla backs Houston and Droughn matchup well with this team. If UNC protects the ball on offense and Yates has an efficient day like he did vs Duke (78% comp 3 td) then UNC should win this one.
Do not be fooled in this game because WV has the athletic playmakers in White and Devine. What else do they have? Not much. Do not be fooled by their success the past 2 seasons. This is a much different team as there are 7 different starters on defense this yr and they only have good defensive numbers because nobody has any offense in the Big Least. UNC played in the tougher conference and played the tougher schedule. UNC is built to beat this type of team and they will.
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