Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:
toledo all day
toledo all day
Rockets all night long baby
0
N.Illinois 10-0 only -2 to Toledo.....LOL
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:
Sometimes you can just look at a line and scratch your head and say this line is off.
Just curious why you like Toledo? I saw this line,and loved N.ill -2 They have beaten everyone by 20 or more,and just beat a good Ball ST game.
Sometimes you can just look at a line and scratch your head and say this line is off.
Like Miami only -3.5 to Duke
Or Stanford only -3.5 to USC.
No way should N.Illinois be laying less then a FG in this game...What a joke....What a $ucker Bet....Public on N.I. 77%
Give me Toledo +2 for pretty big money.
Another head scratcher is Duke only -4.5 to this bad Wake team.
Huge letdown for Duke and Vegas must know it by making this line only 4.5.....Give me Wake +4.5
Kansas St giving Oklahoma 3.5 pts. strange line.....I`ll lay the points with Kansas St.
0
Posted:
#53
Ive noticed these bookmakers are setting lines for each individual half as opposed to setting them for the entire game which is what the oddsmakers want you to think
The reasoning its N Illinios -2 IMO is because toledo will win one of the halves being played....its on you to figure the rest out but i truly do think im onto something
0
Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by star22:
Just curious why you like Toledo? I saw this line,and loved N.ill -2 They have beaten everyone by 20 or more,and just beat a good Ball ST game.
Just curious why you like Toledo? I saw this line,and loved N.ill -2 They have beaten everyone by 20 or more,and just beat a good Ball ST game.
Play who you like star.....I posted my reason in the write up....95% of this forum were on Miami and Stanford Saturday...Both lines were fishy....And this line is fishy as can be.....Only asking this 10-0 team who is ranked 15th in the country to win by a FG for the money.
Not for me.....I believe in traps....Miami and Stanford were traps.....And so is NI at only -2 or -2.5.
You guys do what you got to do.
0
Posted:
#56
Plz let this line get to 3 or 3.5.. I'm taking Toledo and the ML
Northern ILL Beat IOWA week 1 and then nobodies on the road.. Toledo is undefeated at home and their losses come to mizzou, Florida and ball st on the road.. I'd say at least 70% of the people who think northern ill is easy money are the same that thought Brady n co was tonight as well
Northern ILL Beat IOWA week 1 and then nobodies on the road.. Toledo is undefeated at home and their losses come to mizzou, Florida and ball st on the road.. I'd say at least 70% of the people who think northern ill is easy money are the same that thought Brady n co was tonight as well
0
71% an line holding steady lets do this Slick
Posted:
#68
There is nothing suspicious about this one Slick. I don't know how much you have watched these two teams, but I watch a lot of MAC football. I enjoy the mid majors and do better with them then the big hype games. Just on it's face: Toledo can score, NIU defense can be scored upon. Toledo's 3 losses were to Florida and Missouri, with them not being embarrassed, and a TD loss to a very good Ball State team. Ball State hung in their NIU game on the road last week until the last 1:30 made the score look like a beat down. An angle to not discount here though in my opinion is NIU is only a Fresno State slip up away from returning to the BCS. BCS dollars are huge for a conference like the MAC. We have all seen and joked about the suspicious and crazy stuff that happens in this conference. I wouldn't discount the dollar angle and a little favoritism in this game going NIU's way. Still haven't made a final decision, but I think there is a little more to consider here than your fade the public approach. Keep up the good work and best of luck.
0
Posted:
#69
Whether the play hits or not, the point is, there are several games like this each and every week. Long term, they split 50/50 just like all the rest.
Use a little logic when considering the theory of "trap" games...
Everyone has a slightly different perception. What stands out as fishy to you (i.e. NIU/Toledo as discussed), may seem spot on to many others (as have voiced their opinion right here in this very thread.) As I've stated before, if something doesn't seem right, someone, somewhere, knows a hell of a lot more than you do about a particular game.
Everyone is so anxious to decipher what "Vegas" is thinking and why oddsmakers are so desparate to trick them. Bottom line is, regardless of where you set a number, the 50/50 probability still holds true. If you know your stuff, do your homework, and handicap the game rather than thinking about what an invisible entity is trying to "trap" you into doing, you'll be much more successful in the long run.
To say that a game is a "trap" is to say, 100%, with no exception, that a particular side is absolutely positively correct and that someone else knows the outcome. As I've just said, these games all split over time just like all the "standard" or "non-trap" games if you so feel the need to label them. Overthinking a spread in the worst habit to fall into when handicapping.
I know logic is very hard for many on this forum to digest because everyone is too lazy and wants the easy answer with no fails.....but unfortunately you have to think....without overthinking.
Math, statistics, probability, logic....they are all your friend if you don't let them get the best of you.
Slick, I appreciate you bringing this line to the attention of the forum and the discussion it's created. Just know that these lines are usually much more transparent than your mind allows them to be. I always jump at the opportunity to debunk the trap theory because you as a recreational/casual bettor are not the target of some sort of single-game conspiracy. Oddsmakers know there is a good chance, by charging 10% each play, that in the long run they will get into your pockets. And that is good enough for them.
Good luck either way gentlemen.
Use a little logic when considering the theory of "trap" games...
Everyone has a slightly different perception. What stands out as fishy to you (i.e. NIU/Toledo as discussed), may seem spot on to many others (as have voiced their opinion right here in this very thread.) As I've stated before, if something doesn't seem right, someone, somewhere, knows a hell of a lot more than you do about a particular game.
Everyone is so anxious to decipher what "Vegas" is thinking and why oddsmakers are so desparate to trick them. Bottom line is, regardless of where you set a number, the 50/50 probability still holds true. If you know your stuff, do your homework, and handicap the game rather than thinking about what an invisible entity is trying to "trap" you into doing, you'll be much more successful in the long run.
To say that a game is a "trap" is to say, 100%, with no exception, that a particular side is absolutely positively correct and that someone else knows the outcome. As I've just said, these games all split over time just like all the "standard" or "non-trap" games if you so feel the need to label them. Overthinking a spread in the worst habit to fall into when handicapping.
I know logic is very hard for many on this forum to digest because everyone is too lazy and wants the easy answer with no fails.....but unfortunately you have to think....without overthinking.
Math, statistics, probability, logic....they are all your friend if you don't let them get the best of you.
Slick, I appreciate you bringing this line to the attention of the forum and the discussion it's created. Just know that these lines are usually much more transparent than your mind allows them to be. I always jump at the opportunity to debunk the trap theory because you as a recreational/casual bettor are not the target of some sort of single-game conspiracy. Oddsmakers know there is a good chance, by charging 10% each play, that in the long run they will get into your pockets. And that is good enough for them.
Good luck either way gentlemen.
0
Yep agree Vegas trap
Posted:
#75
im not here to put u down about ur play but i just find it comical that u base all ur plays off just the %s u see on a website. Am I the only one who thinks slick just thinks hes better and smarter than everyone at capping and thinks hes a sharp?? The dude talks shitt and talks down to people if their on a public play. The fact that he looks on a website and bases all his picks off a percentage he sees says all u need to know about this guys capping skills. Now im not saying im this great capper or anything but this dude just thinks hes above people. And ive said this bfor and il say it again if u just look at the percentages and think u know where the money is ur even a bigger moron then i originally thought.percentages mean nothing. if 60% of people bet 100 dollars on a game and the other 40% bet 1000 on that same game then what does the % mean. Now i dont usually come at people like this but this clown is constantly talkin shitt and bashing people so i just thought id put him on front street and prove what a fraud he is. So anyone who follows this guys plays just flip a coin cuz thats essentially what hes doin. he thinks hes goin against public when actually a high percentage of time he is on the publics side but he just dont know it.
0
Hot Forum Topics
