A clean sweep last week that included Purdue plus the points & UCLA ml. Looking to build off it this week.
Louisville @ Syracuse (+15)
This one stuck out almost immediately. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals are getting too much respect Saturday night. No, that doesn't mean I think Syracuse is a "good team" or "bad matchup". It means I think laying 2 TDs+ on the road with a team lacking a signature win is too much. It took 30 2H points to pull away from a depleted FSU team, they crushed FCS Villanova, and they needed 27 2H points vs SMU just to sneak away with a closer than box score 10 point win. Nothing about this Louisville team screams blowout vs capable opponents. Don't get me wrong, they've played A LOT of close games vs quality teams, and kudos to them, but they don't have the knockout punch type team on both sides IMO. They're 23rd in adjusted EPA on offense, however they've played 100, 116, and 119 in adjusted defense opponents (Syracuse is 89th). That tells me that even vs the worst of it, Louisville keeps games tight. Two of those three 100+ ranked defenses, they lost to. Meanwhile, Syracuse's 3 losses are by a combined 20 points (two 3-point losses) and they come back home after THREE straight road games. I know, I know, can we trust Malachi Nelson or Angeli (no matter who starts)? Yes...you can. While neither are going to blow your socks off, Nelson's sample size is small but he's still an unknown. On tape, I can appreciate that. Angeli is an experienced Sr. that I think can step up in this spot and manage the game. Meanwhile, his counter part Kienholz has shown that if you pressure him, he's going to force throws. While he only has 1 INT, he has multiple turnover worthy throws and Syracuse is top 1/3 in Havoc % on defense. I'm not big on the home field advantage, rather the comfort of home, consistency of the day to day and lack of travel for Syracuse in this spot. I think Louisville comes into this match-up sleepy, knowing they have a bye week next week. Syracuse students are back from fall break and I expect somewhat of a positive showing. This is a play on Louisville's inability to stop opposing offenses and keep games closer than they should. This is the Jeff Brohm experience.
3*** Syracuse +15 (-113)
Best of luck! More to come.
NC424
NightCap424
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
A clean sweep last week that included Purdue plus the points & UCLA ml. Looking to build off it this week.
Louisville @ Syracuse (+15)
This one stuck out almost immediately. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals are getting too much respect Saturday night. No, that doesn't mean I think Syracuse is a "good team" or "bad matchup". It means I think laying 2 TDs+ on the road with a team lacking a signature win is too much. It took 30 2H points to pull away from a depleted FSU team, they crushed FCS Villanova, and they needed 27 2H points vs SMU just to sneak away with a closer than box score 10 point win. Nothing about this Louisville team screams blowout vs capable opponents. Don't get me wrong, they've played A LOT of close games vs quality teams, and kudos to them, but they don't have the knockout punch type team on both sides IMO. They're 23rd in adjusted EPA on offense, however they've played 100, 116, and 119 in adjusted defense opponents (Syracuse is 89th). That tells me that even vs the worst of it, Louisville keeps games tight. Two of those three 100+ ranked defenses, they lost to. Meanwhile, Syracuse's 3 losses are by a combined 20 points (two 3-point losses) and they come back home after THREE straight road games. I know, I know, can we trust Malachi Nelson or Angeli (no matter who starts)? Yes...you can. While neither are going to blow your socks off, Nelson's sample size is small but he's still an unknown. On tape, I can appreciate that. Angeli is an experienced Sr. that I think can step up in this spot and manage the game. Meanwhile, his counter part Kienholz has shown that if you pressure him, he's going to force throws. While he only has 1 INT, he has multiple turnover worthy throws and Syracuse is top 1/3 in Havoc % on defense. I'm not big on the home field advantage, rather the comfort of home, consistency of the day to day and lack of travel for Syracuse in this spot. I think Louisville comes into this match-up sleepy, knowing they have a bye week next week. Syracuse students are back from fall break and I expect somewhat of a positive showing. This is a play on Louisville's inability to stop opposing offenses and keep games closer than they should. This is the Jeff Brohm experience.
Thank you! 
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