NightCap's Week 5 card...

No bueno last week with Old Dominion (that's on me, not knowing QB was in jeopardy). Appalachian St. was the bright spot.

For this week....

4*** Purdue +10

2*** Purdue/Illinois OVER 62.5

Illinois is coming off their road Super Bowl @ Ohio St. and just went through some coaching changes. But Purdue sucks, right? Well, did you know the Illinois defense ranks 134th in EPA/play, just 4 spots ahead of Purdue? They're also 125th in EPA/Rush - this bodes well for Ijeboi and the Boilers in what could be a historic spot for their first P4 win in 2+ years. Nothing about this Illinois squad screams talent. Sure, Purdue is 1-3...but lets take out that Indiana State game. Home vs Wake? A team that went 3+ quarters with Miami, FL on the road. At UCLA? A team that is vastly underrated and steamrolling teams with a stout offense and equally intimidating defense that Purdue took to the woodshed for one week. Notre Dame? Arguably a top 3 team that is massive in size in the trenches and has solid skill players. That's the #11, 12, and 15th ranked EPA offenses in the nation. This has become more of a rivalry that IU vs Purdue, not just because IU is that much better now, but because these two fan bases can't stand each other and it stems from college hoops. If Browne can limit the turnover worthy throws and the offense can move the ball like they have (solid WR core + Ijeboi), I think Illinois struggles to get stops as well. I think the Boilers go to Champaign very motivated and 10 points is too much.

Good luck MNC.  

Great writeup! Like both picks and also an Ijeboi anytime td/over 70 rushing yards parlay 

@TRAIN69

 Thanks - I think Ijeboi gets his and so do Waseem, Magwood and XT through the air. Waseem specifically. 

Adding two smaller plays from Caesars

1***Miami, OH -10.5 (-113)

1***Miami,OH/Bowling Green OVER 43 (-109)

This line has dropped a fair amount since open and I think it's gone too far. BG is 131st in adjusted offensive EPA with a QB who lacks any consistency. Surprisingly enough for some, Miami, OH is 42nd and that's with matchups vs Pitt, UConn and Cincy. I think there will be points in this matchup today as both defenses are a little shaky, BG worse off, but allowing 56 and 55 vs fairly mediocre P5 opponents in the preseason. If you want to look at USF and say, only 14, that's fine, but have any of you watched USF's offense? I could have egg on my face, but I think Miami wins this by 13+ and the total goes over 43.