NCAAF Week 2

Question

Week 1: 3-3, -0.2 unitsHere&#x27;s my leans for now with some general thoughts, always interested in feedback from others...  All posted lines are current on Bookmaker as of 3:40 pm PST on Monday, Sept 5, 2011:1. Oklahoma State -142. Utah &#x2B;103. Missouri &#x2B;74. Hawaii &#x2B;55. San Jose State &#x2B;21.56. Toledo &#x2B;197. Oregon State &#x2B;218. Iowa State &#x2B;79. Auburn &#x2B;710. Air Force &#x2B;211. Oregon -2712. Virginia Tech -2013. UNLV &#x2B;1414. BYU &#x2B;715. North Texas &#x2B;22.5Really wouldn&#x27;t be surprised at all to see Utah or Hawaii win SU -- USC is totally overrated (what has Lane Kiffin done well EVER) and I can almost guarantee they will be out-coached in their game this week.Could you buy any lower on Oregon State than their game against Wisconsin this week? I think there&#x27;s a legit chance that Oregon State completely overlooked Sac State while preparing for Wisconsin. Not saying they will win or keep it in the single digits, but if there is a team that is gonna have less public love from it this week than Oregon State I don&#x27;t know who it is gonna be. I  think a lot about what applied to Oregon State also applies to AuburnI think waiting could get you a much better number on the San Jose State and Oregon State games.

kaponofor3 · Answer

Week 1: 3-3, -0.2 unitsHere&#x27;s my leans for now with some general thoughts, always interested in feedback from others...  All posted lines are current on Bookmaker as of 3:40 pm PST on Monday, Sept 5, 2011:1. Oklahoma State -142. Utah &#x2B;103. Missouri &#x2B;74. Hawaii &#x2B;55. San Jose State &#x2B;21.56. Toledo &#x2B;197. Oregon State &#x2B;218. Iowa State &#x2B;79. Auburn &#x2B;710. Air Force &#x2B;211. Oregon -2712. Virginia Tech -2013. UNLV &#x2B;1414. BYU &#x2B;715. North Texas &#x2B;22.5Really wouldn&#x27;t be surprised at all to see Utah or Hawaii win SU -- USC is totally overrated (what has Lane Kiffin done well EVER) and I can almost guarantee they will be out-coached in their game this week.Could you buy any lower on Oregon State than their game against Wisconsin this week? I think there&#x27;s a legit chance that Oregon State completely overlooked Sac State while preparing for Wisconsin. Not saying they will win or keep it in the single digits, but if there is a team that is gonna have less public love from it this week than Oregon State I don&#x27;t know who it is gonna be. I  think a lot about what applied to Oregon State also applies to AuburnI think waiting could get you a much better number on the San Jose State and Oregon State games.

kaponofor3 · Answer

16. Fresno State &#x2B;28I&#x27;ll take a Pat Hill team on the road catching 28 points any day of the week.

shakey12381 · Answer

i do like oregon st this week but hoping to get 21 also love utah i dont like iowa st whatso ever but best of luck if you play and im ready for ncaabb

MagicBoy · Answer

hawaii &#x2B;5 not so fast dogs by 10-14

kaponofor3 · Answer

The line for the SJSU/UCLA game tells us that UCLA is apparently only a touchdown or so worse than Stanford.... I find that highly suspect and believe that most people will think that UCLA will bounce back with a huge victory over a traditionally crappy football school (at least in the last 20 years or so) while SJSU, who got blown out at Stanford, will have the same thing happen against UCLA. Completely disagree. Stanford has the best QB in the country and UCLA is playing their backup (who played better than Prince in the opener without a doubt) out of the Pistol offense. Don't forget also that the Stanford/SJSU game is somewhat of a rivalry game in the Bay Area given the teams' close proximity to one another. That definitely could have played a role in the beatdown by Stanford (that and the fact that as a new coach, what better way to start your career than with a big victory in terms of point margin?)

kaponofor3 · Answer

Virginia Tech should be able to put up at least 50 points against East Carolina, shouldn't they? I think that ECU should be able to get up a couple TDs in that game even though that VaTech defense is stout... East Carolina still has the athletes and schemes on offense to pick up yards, just wonder if they can convert in the red zone.

kaponofor3 · Answer

Someone tell me why USC should be favored over Utah.... no, seriously, why? Why doesn't Utah win this game SU a significant period of the time?

Who do you think focused more on their first opponent in terms of preparation -- Utah or USC? I gotta think USC cared far more about their game with Minnesota than Utah did against Montana State. I would have to imagine that Utah's coaching staff (still one of the best in the country with Whittingham on the sidelines) has been focusing on this game for a long, long time this offseason.

Put a gun to your head -- they show a split-screen during the Utah/USC game of the coaches on the sidelines. Who do you feel more comfortable backing with your own money -- Lane Kiffin or Kyle Whittingham?

I think the answer is pretty clear.

kaponofor3 · Answer

Another "buy low" team has to be Auburn, right? They sure looked overmatched against Utah State, and now they get a rapidly improving Mississippi State squad coming to their house and they are only catching 7 points? After MSU's destruction of Memphis, I have to imagine that a lot of action will come down on MSU after Week 1, especially when playing Auburn who was quite frankly very lucky to win their game.

Anyone else like Auburn after some significant first game jitters and mistakes?

SatNightFever05 · Answer

really like the Pokies this week

kaponofor3 · Answer

It&#x27;s going to be far too easy to bet on Wisconsin this weekend, isn&#x27;t it? OSU off a terrible loss, they have to travel, and play an early game... My brain says OSU is the right side but I could see them getting blown off the field as well. Tough one.

RJSizzle · Answer

Your threads are like they come from completely different people from last year to this.

beaner3445 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;OSU TB had over 200 yards running last game-i know vs Sac St, but the Badger run D looked awful and they are playing 8 guy rotation right now on the D Line...it&#x27;s going to take some time before they can consistently stop any ground attack...Plus Boreland is coming off an injury and looks awfully slow to the ball...OSU should get into the 20&#x27;s at least-question is, if they gave up 29 to Sac St, how many can they give up to the Badgers? I see the Badgers putting up around 42-45 points..and trust me if they are up 45-17 in the 4th quarter they WILL find a way to let the backdoor in, they always do. Add in the motivation for OSU to obviously play better and you never know... Plenty of better games on your card in my opinion, unless this goes up to 24-25 points.&#xD;&#xA;GL

kaponofor3 · Answer

I think that might be the best backhanded compliment I&#x27;ve received all day.

kaponofor3 · Answer

I don&#x27;t think it will be offered at many places, but I wonder what you could get the OSU moneyline at? I mean wouldn&#x27;t it be a perfect lead-off story for the late SportsCenter edition on TV -- "look at OSU, they can&#x27;t beat Sac State, but they go into Wisconsin and play them right down to the wire!" I&#x27;m probably wrong but I feel like I&#x27;ve seen this theatre production before.

RJSizzle · Answer

I didnt mean for it to be backhanded. You knew I disagreed with your style last year. We spoke about some games and were always coming from different worlds. Everything I read from you this year, so far, is like you have found a new approach. I like it. I meant that seriously, even though it might have sounded like a shot. Your threads are much better reading this year and its a fresh way of thinking that covers needs more of.

kaponofor3 · Answer

RJS -- no worries, just giving you a hard time. I'm definitely trying a much different, more disciplined approach this year. For too long I've been the guy who really only plays week to week in terms of memory -- i.e., WISKY gets a crappy OSU team, WISKY will win by 40, they can name the score, etc.. If I'm gonna do this seriously and take time out of my day to do it, then god damnit, I want to do it right, and if I haven't learned over time that my previous approach is not the right one, then I am a lost cause.

Appreciate the kind words, enjoy your analysis and your thread is always an excellent read as well.

SportsFreak69 · Answer

Best of Luck

tinfoils · Answer

Good luck kap.   Jumped on the Huskies -3 on Sunday.

TRAIN69 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I agree with, RJ....godd stuff here Kap &#xD;&#xA;I think Toledo has the personnel to give OSU all they can handle. Iowa St should be in that game til the end. The Beavs getting no love, that is true, but betting against the Badgers at Camp Randle rarely works out well. I will lay a little on the Fresno ML if I can find it. Missouri lost 2 defensive starters saturday and this will be Franklins 1st road start (at night to boot), I like ASU by dd.....I&#x27;m opposite of Aub and AF as I think Aub will be outcoached and AF will be out manned (patterson knows how to defend the tricky option offense).&#xD;&#xA;gl this weekend bro

Mikado · Answer

Really like Utah and Hawaii as well brother.

Can't disagree with Oregon St being blacklisted by the public bettors now. Could you think the reverse happens in the Duke game after they lost to Richmond? Richmond is a very good team and better than some FBS opponents. I feel stupid for saying this but I kinda like Duke.

CalBear · Answer

Whats up bud, GL this week.

Mikado · Answer

I think the VT defense has lost a step or two.  Still good by all means, but not the typical Beamer Ball coming out of Blacksburg now.  You wouldn&#x27;t be able to tell since their first game was against a garbage meaningless opponent.  However don&#x27;t put it past the VT offense to put up 50&#x2B; points on ECU.  I&#x27;d rather go with the Over in that one.  Also think UVA looks very good -6.5 vs Indiana.  I think if you wait you can find a 6 out there.

Jettson12 · Answer

KAP I think I would not take Auburn and the points. They really are not a good team this year, lost a lot. The only thing I'll say is they seem to have a rabbit under their hate the last 15 games so who knows!

BOL this week.

mws · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I thought his NBA stuff was pretty good, but I don&#x27;t remember any football from Kapono.&#xD;&#xA;Anyway, I like a lot of the dogs -- especially Oregon St, San Jose, and Auburn.  &#xD;&#xA;Good luck, Kapono.

NCAAF Week 2

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