NCAA wk 4

More Big 10

W Virginia 17 Maryland (60)

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Going on faith with WV - we have them rated pretty high in our PR best we can say on results tho is that they did what they had to - beat GS with their backup QB 44-cack then beat Liberty...off a bye...Probably ready to drill somebody well rested...big game with Sooners on deck cant wait for that one...Maryland still has no identity other than "making bettors angry" have looked their typical up and down / ok so far and looking to avenge LY 3 pt loss to WV on their home turf - however they have conf play on deck too so not sure revenge gonna play a role in this one...QBs 8 TD 7 INT and they face the best D of their sched so far....Terp D also can be severely gashed a lot of the time....One upside - mostly meaningless trend Mary 9-4L13 ATS as road dog.

Summary - no leanage. Line and total look about right although Maryland could lay down and give up half-a-hundred lol

Rutgers 12.5 Kansas (65)

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If SCAL has a good read on this game for us in the forum - AND nails it - we should anoint him to GOD status....We have made enough Rutgers wisecracks for a while - just no idea what to expect from them especially against a crappy opponent before a bye and Big 10 games....Kansas a bit better than we thought especially on offense but cannot trust a team with a D that bad Rutgers could score 45 by accident.

Summary - no leanage.

Michigan 5.5 BYU (45)

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A really interesting game....Michigan gave up 7 pts each of the last 2 games - and only 17 on defense to Utah before the pick 6....BYU brings the best offense they have seen this yr QB Tanner Mangum has looked very good outgained UCLA last wk and made their young stud QB look "not so good" almost won that game from start to finish....Yes the BYU games have all been fantastic finishes and you could argue "luck" but they have played good teams very tough - and now face another big test....So on the one hand - they are "unfadable" catching almost 6 points vs a team that cannot MATRICULATE in the passing game consistently - JR has 3 TD and 5 INT....but you also have to look at the effect of 3 straight meat grinders for BYU - can they get up and play another good game against a tough opponent? Well history says yes - they are used to playing pretty difficult schedules....and we think their passing game is going to be a real test....D has a bit of a soft underbelly but should be in this game from start to finish.

Summary. Lean to BYU which we know will be popular. Lean to the over. Think there may be more TDs than we think. NO official add yet but will be looking at this one in more detail.

MEGA

 everyone

pickmywhat - I really like T Tech - sadly I missed the good numbers and wont chase but will throw them in my degenerate ML underdog parlay I think ! GL

dynasty - thx for the intel  Michigan total creeping down there just might be a play on this one later in the week. Go Blue - GL buddy

BNH847 - nice going with the Jets If it were me - I might try and find another NFL game to fill our the teaser card since the variability in NCAA games is much greater than NFL and teasers are tougher to hit....I do not get the sense that there is another gem out there - so if I had to pick a game for you and had to get it right or leave covers forever I would go T AM pick and not touch the other 2 on a teaser. GL !

Indiana OFF Wake

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Looks like this puppy is going to open in the 3-4 range....We will be more interested in the total....Reason for the delay is the status of Wake starting QB...Backup who is more of a runner came in last wk early on and lead them to a last minute win over Army....threw for 159 ran for over 100 and 2 scores....Our take is that either QB will do fine against that Indiana D - one will MATRICULATE the other will slice and dice running and throwing...Of course the real question is can WF stop Indiana ? They are rolling on offense which is good given their D - but must respect the 3-0 start and if they get to 4-0 it just might be bowl eligibility with an upset or two later on....Wake also in same boat as crazy as that sounds - can go 3-1 with a win and lots of tough games but not impossible to get to 6 wins.

Summary - no lean on side. Waiting to see total

mega

temple

Wisconsin 24.5 Hawaii (50)

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Tough to back the fav here - get their 3rd straight cupcake before Big 10 season starts won last 2 games by combined score of 86-3 cannot believe they will be super pumped for this one and the line looks pretty fair....Offense still only ranked 93rd after playing Troy and Miami Oh after Bama; On the other hand - Hawaii still a bit of a mystery - we nailed them wk 1 with our 2452403582304 BLOW THE DOORS OFF STEAM LOCK against Colorado....But here is the thing - and you young Sparkies need to keep this in mind as the season rolls along - Hawaii travel schedule is pretty brutal this yr I mean it is never easy but holy moly home to Col - 9 days later at ohio st - a wk later game at home - fly back to Wisconsin this wk - then to Boise - then back home.......MEGALOCKS own JOHN COCKTOASTIN is our resident measurement guru - and he estimates that Hawaii will travel the equivalent of three return trips to Mars by the end of October

Summary. No lean on side. Lean to under 50 or higher.

mega

 guys

more Big 10

Nebraska 21.5 S Miss (68)

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Nebraska fought back gamely last wk down 30-10 after 3Q only to lose in OT to the Canes....add that to the BYU debacle and they have had 2 pretty tough losses.....This should be a good team to look at for overs during the big 10 schedule - nice offense - not so nice defense - but this number is just out of our comfort zone even tho we lean that way....Husker D is #126 in passing Y allowed and S Miss can MATRICULATE in the passing game and mix it up with the run game.....S Miss coming off BtB 50 pt outbursts obviously their D needs work but they can SCORE THE FOOTBALL and when you have Picasso Nelson Jr on your side anything can happen.....Big 10 up next for Neb....S Miss D just too horrid to support even catching 21 or so.

Summary - lean over. No lean on side although would not think you were crazy to take S Miss.

Iowa 24.5 North Tex (54)

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It will probably be at least a decade before we bet on North Texas but hard to bet Iowa at this price as well - yes they are playing well but have not hit 40 pts yet and have Wisc on deck....N Tex 116 in total D and #127 in time of possession cannot support play on dog either....Iowa should stop RB Jimmerson cold and then it should be a slaughter.

Summary - lean on Iowa at -24 or less. No lean on total.

mega

keep it rolling this week buddy, BOL

Bowling Green 2.5 Purdue (75)

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BG brings the #1 rated passing attack to Purdue and a decent running game - and - a horrible defense that just makes things interesting....BG gets a similar D to Maryland and Memphis and really cannot make the case for Purdue to have a shot in this one - They start a new QB RS F David Blough (get ready for the blow jokes if he stinks this week) and the one thing our research dept has noted is that he does have some good mobility - that - combined with a decent run game and BG's pitiful D will at least give Purdue an opportunity to come up with a game plan - RUN THE BALL - and slow things down....however - with potentially the dumbest coaching staff to ever be born to this earth - they probably come out hurry up with 5 WR and try to outscore BG.....This one should be like shooting fish in a barrel but if Purdue runs for 250+ (likely / possible) and is +2 or +3 in turnovers (you never know but doubtful) then they can win the game....Just seems that over 4Q of SCORCHED EARTH offense from BG that this one should be a 10+ pt win.

Resident capping genious SCAL has a great writeup supporting BG in the one and as usual we will be at a minimum putting down a bit of degen cash because he has made us trillions (rounded down)

Summary - lean to BG. On short list to add. No lean on total seems high but BG games are wacko.

Will be posting those up in a few hours but to be honest not a big fan of them - sorry buddy- - will at least do some analysis that may or may not help

thanks man ! hope you have an awesome week

Quote Originally Posted by Woodshederation:

Mega - congrats on the hot start 

Washington +4.5 -120 looks like a play to me.  LOVE home teams with great D's getting points...especially when Cal is making their 2nd trip in a row and their D basically sucks.

Early days but Wash D allows .228 points/play and only 4.1 yds/play and both teams run a relatively low amount of plays which should favour the home dog.

Washington +4.5 -120 and I would also support Cal UNDER TT ~31.5 if you can find it

Woodshed  thanks man - great call on the Texas TT over last week that was epic and yet another reason for SUBSCRIBERS to check in this thread all kinds of great ideas from COVERS NATION......I do like Washington and the points not sure about adding it to the card but that seems like a decent play and like how their QB is developing....so saying that - maybe Wash is more equipped to get in a shootout than we think? Would be more tempted to take Wash vs the Cal TT under but I agree the Wash D is underrated. GL this wk keep the team totals coming !

Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Mega

Watched Fletch just the other day.  Its called a "cult classic" on Netflix.  Comedy.

Talk me out of Navy.  You see something in this CT QB, but I can't seem to find a way around this senior laden team scoring consistently on Saturday.  I know strange things happen in Hartford.  I watched a lot of that Navy/ECU game.  Navy looked pretty good.  Uconn D is better - but Mizzou is an injury riddled mess right now.  Think this is a good number, with the almost upset of Mizzou in people's minds.  This should be the 10+ it opened at.  Feel that 6.5 is a bargain.

Speaking of ECU, they looked pretty soft on D - shocker I know.  I see the steam on on Vtech from 4 to 8, but with revenge, and that rushing offense, and that defense, I see a 1 sided game here.  Thoughts?

Some more laying on the highway (is that a Spinal Tap song?)  Like a moth to the flame, I am attracted to Appy St.  Only a creampuff win and loss to Clemson on their schedule, but they are a team I wanted to bet on based on the way they played at the end of last year and the # of returning starters.  ODU surprised a bit last year offensively, eeked out a win against powerhouse EMU 38-34, bested #220 ranked Norfolk state, then got destroyed by NC state.  One of these teams is going bowling, and its not ODU.
 Love laying points on the road

Thinking of playing IA 1h vs N TX, for what it is worth. 

Keep it fun and profitable.

 great to hear from you - do not see you around as much as we should - your reads on the games are excellent

Regarding Navy: Cannot talk you off of them. They are my fav ATS team of ALL TIME and I might have played against them maybe 3 times in 20 years just like cheering for them and of course their QB is one of our all-time favs...Now objectively - I need to look at the game closer - but yes - I think UConn QB is a huge upgrade he is very calm and manages the game well and can make most throws....I just think Navy is so efficient and experienced that they should end up winning by at least 7 UConn needs to show me a bit more on offense overall but boy we likey the way they play in terms of making us just prob not this wk against Navy. GL

Re: Virginia Tech - I really like that one - as much as I liked Tex AM but I missed the -4 and now it is over 7 so on principle cannot chase but they should win by DD IMO.

Re: App St - yes ! now you know us and favs - do not bet favs >7 very often - but lean that way vs ODU but truthfully have not analyzed the game yet.....We think alike sometimes it is pretty funny - we also had App St as a team to watch and even Tw'd that out during the summer during our North Carolina beach/handicapping/relaxation vacation this summer - we also noted that Kansas would be pure filth....Back to the topic - lean App St but NEED to do some work on that one.

Really like your first half Iowa idea gonna look into that one; Seems like a bloodbath but you never know with Iowa.

Glad you checked out Fletch ! I hope you enjoyed the fine acting ability of JOHN COCKTOASTIN.

GL this wk - MEGA

Minnesota 10.5 Ohio (47)

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Minnesota playing some fine D so far this yr held down TCU and continued fine play in 3 pt wins over col st and KENT ....Now as we noted last wk - Kent has a fine DL - but they have to be able to score more than 10 in that situation....Gophers still a bit of a mess on offense and Ohio well coached and scrappy - Vick is now the QB with Sprague inj so no more back and forth we think that is a positive for Ohio and Vick threw for 300 LW against SE LA....Biggest worry is Minn just shutting them down like Kent and if Ohio cannot get to 14 do not think they will cover.....Minn has NW on deck.

Summary - lean Ohio at 10.5 or better. Have not seen any Ohio games yet so gonna wait for MACtion to start before playing their games.

mega

Illinois 6 MTSU (61.5)

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Tough game to get a read on b/c not sure about Illinois yet - Exhibit A - they were a bowl team last yr and won their first 2 tuneup games 96-3 ...Exhibit B - followed by a real stinker against UNC which came as no surprise when you have a D as bad as theirs just hard to justify playing them as a road dog....So here we are .....MTSU getting some value in this one - we really like this team a lot just so hard to know (for us anyway) when the spread is below a TD - is it REALLY value or are our ratings off??? We liked MTSU as our 2490358234095823490 star CRACK PIPE SPECIAL vs Bama but that was catching 35 and not sure we have enough buffer here to confidently take MTSU.

Keep in mind that Illinois was 6-6 and made a bowl last yr while MTSU was 6-6 and got the bowl snub - Their QB is playing good football and the D is confident right now.

Summary - lean MTSU but would want 7+. Good inclusion for ML underdog parlay players.

mega