NCAA wk 4

Leaning UVA on the ML...haven't pulled the trigger yet, but this could be a good spot for the apparent outbound Mike London regime to get a one year extension with a signature win over a somewhat debilitated Boise State squad.

BSU is a good block and tackle football team; no doubt about that. The difference between the last few Boise State squads and the elite Boise State squads of a few years back is the QB....the lack of a big time player at QB shows up in Boise's performance nearly every week.  It is tough to follow a great college qb like Kellen Moore, but it often takes a program a decade to find another special one.

Trips to the east coast are tough, and without a gamer at QB for BSU, I would look to UVA to have a real shot at the money here.

Glad to hear that Mr. Cocktoastin is doing well. Dropped a grand to him a few years back over at the lodge. Give him a shout out for me, would ya...enough of this pot limit shittt.

nice work - Looks like a few subscribers took our suggested route and made a bit of paper.

UP NEXT  ALL REQUEST LINE : OREGON / UTAH

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CRACK PIPE SPECIAL ALERT

Ball St +20

The Wildcats have been playing great defense - but their offense has not found a rhythm yet....#97th in offense and #126 in passing efficiency....To be fair they did play a couple good defenses (although not sure about Stanford anymore....or really Duke?) Bottom  line -  one offensive TD vs Stanford....One vs Duke....Now they get a scrappy and veteran Ball St team who took Iowa to the wall last yr on the road and lost by 4....and this team looks better to us....New QB Riley Neal looks fantastic and is a running and passing threat similar to Duke QB and that means driving defenders nuts and at least moving the chains at times to keep the clock moving....Ace in the hole is Ball St receiving core which is very very good and probably the best OL in the MAC....A RB that has 334 and 4 TD....They are going to get some first downs....Just do not see NW pulling away in this one. Added bonus - NW has Big 10 play up next....Ball St a comical 32-14 ATS (0-1 this yr at Tex AM) as a road dog.

We also like the NW TT under 35 - maybe even prefer that play - BUT - we know a lot of you guys cannot get these lines yet SO - think Ball St +20 also a nice play gonna go with that.....RE: team total analysis - ball st gave up over 35 ONE time last year and ONE time the yr before they are well coached.

GL mega

Metallica  GL buddy

ALL REQUEST HOTLINE

Oregon 12 Utah (64.5)

The one thing we noticed - and just us maybe - but each team just seems a bit off but it is early....Oregon has only 3 TD passing after 3 games including 2 vs E Wash and Ga St - and do not get us going about the Sparty D (Covers rank #1) ....and their D just cannot "tackle" like we are used to seeing - It could be just the non stop highlights of guys whiffing in the open field but I think anyone would admit that a D ranked #105 even tho it is early and stats can be very deceiving - is not going to cut it....We are not medical experts - but it appears QB Adams will start and be fine to the extent that his injury is a detrement? we don't know....As far as Utah - also only one TD pass - both QBs completing over 70% off their throws but just not enough deep stuff - stud RB Booker can be very good - but only 4.1/pop and is also tied for the team lead in receptions....Utah looks just a bit down from last yr but it is early - special team still solid - the ONE thing we noticed - yes it is early - BUT Utah led the NCAA in sacks last yr was very disruptive this yr they are #102 in sacks and #108 in TFL so that just is not going to cut it and they are playing Oregon on the road....last two yrs lost 51-27 44-21.

Summay lean Oregon at any number 13 or better. Seems that it is more likely Oregon wins big than a close game. Strength of Utah matches up well with what Oregon can do on D and not sure Utah can MATRICULATE enough to stay with Oregon.

MEGALOCKS - "because we care"

Summary of picks

Tex AM -3 -120

Penn St -11

Florida / Tennessee under 53.5

Ball St +20

Table of contents to help with your navigation and overall pleasure

Tex AM / Arkansas

Penn St / SD St

SEC games

Big 10 games

Thursday / Friday games

Oregon / Utah

page 6..........

thanks Mega, sincerely...Dixon B. Tweenerlegs

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Hey Mega.  Few things about Ball State.  Are you not worried that their starting senior DT, junior CB, and that they're starting a true freshman at QB?  He looked okay last week, but Eastern Michigan is not NW.  Wonder your thoughts on those injuries.  

Papa

I am worried about every pick I make. There are more than a few things that make me worry about this game We would be worried if we had Ball St ML. Or Ball St +10. There is risk in taking Ball St and a realistic chance they don't cover - but we feel it is a good play based on the line of +20. The QB is a true freshman. There are many true and redshirt freshmen nowadays that come in and do a good job. NW QB is a redshirt FR with one TD pass on the season.Yes Ball is missing a couple of starters on D but even late Sept most teams are banged up. From reading Ball St news/notes/coaches stuff they are going to be more than able to put capable guys on the field. The totality of our analysis is what makes us play the game - injuries are typically overrated unless a top QB / crappy backup or a cluster of injuries. And again - we are catching 20 points so it is all about context. Final note - they may also be without one of their top OL for the game . You make very good points as usual but my suggestion is always - if you don't like it - don't play it - or fade it. MTSU vs Bama and UConn last wk vs Mizz had all sorts of doubt in our minds but we just go with our process and its only one game. GL this wk ! keep up the good work. mega

 UNLV has not looked terrible at all and the QB appears healthy. like it - GL