NCAA Week 8 Ponderings

That pretty much sums up my last two weeks. I've done ok betting dogs this season, not great by any means but ok. But after this past weekend I've got an 0-fer betting favorites, in both college and pro. Not only have I gone 0-7 for the year but last week, in addition to the two I actually bet, I had leans on six more. All eight failed to cover and four lost outright! You would think just based on the law of averages I'd hit at least one of those suckers! Needless to say my bankroll has taken a hit. I've never been one to tail anyone but maybe it's time I started paying more attention to what some of the better 'cappers in this forum are doing, while also limiting the number of plays I actually bet on. I'm down but not out. "Did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?" (Animal House reference) Hell no! On to Week 8. The teams I like will be in bold. Home teams in CAPS.

Tuesday, Oct. 20

MARSHALL +2' South Alabama - I normally steer clear of these mid-week games, but I think there's some value on the home dog here. The Jaguars are off a 56-49 upset win at Arkansas St. They were outgained 516 total yards to 372, but converted three turnovers into three short TD drives and also returned a kickoff 100 yards for another score. Meanwhile, the Thundering Herd had a complete meltdown in a 27-21 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina. Despite outgaining the Chanticleers 505 yards to 308, their first nine possessions went interception, fumble, interception, interception, punt, punt, end of the half, fumble and stopped on downs. The resulting 27-0 deficit was too much to overcome. This feels like one of those bounce games, and if I was playing with house money I'd jump on it. I still might. 

That's it for now.

Marshall was a nice hit Tuesday night, and the only game I've played so far, but here are ten more I've got my eye on. 

Saturday, Oct. 24 - early games

Actually, there's only ONE I'm interested in.

MICHIGAN +7' Indiana - I have two big questions going into this one. First, how do the Hoosiers respond after a tough, emotional loss to Ohio St. that they were literally just a couple of inches away from winning? And second, have the Wolverines found their QB in Tommy Carr, former HC Lloyd Carr's grandson? We saw what happened to both Georgia and Alabama last week, after their big showdown the week before. Might Indiana suffer the same fate? Carr rallied Michigan to three second half TDs to beat Penn St. last week, and the Wolverines defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points all season, but this is the best team they've faced so far, IF Indy isn't hungover from last week's loss. With BOTH teams featuring stout defenses this feels like a 20-17, 17-14 kind of game.

Saturday afternoon

ILLINOIS +10 Oregon - I'm not sure what to expect from Illini freshman QB Michael Clayton who is making his first start with Katin Houser injured. But Illinois is off their bye week and have had two weeks to get ready for this one. I'm guessing QB Dylan Raiola will get the start for the Ducks with Dante Moore still sidelined, but Oregon has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far. Several players were rumored to be involved in some street racing shenanigans last week after the Nebraska game, and police are still investigating which if true speaks volumes about this team's lack of discipline. They're 1-4 ATS, and perhaps fortunate they're not 0-5.

SOUTH CAROLINA -2' Tennessee - I liked this a lot better when the Gamecocks opened at +2'. South Carolina has already burned me twice when I played them as small favorites against Missy St. and Kentucky. In both games they blew double digit leads. But 83% of the action is on the Volunteers in this game and yet the line has swung five points towards the Gamecocks! I really think Tennessee is the better team here, but off that huge upset win over Alabama last week in Knoxville they could come into this one a little flat, and the 'Cocks come into this one off their best effort of the season, a 38-19 rout of Florida in Gainesville.

UCF +7' Byu - The Knights are rested coming off their bye and catch the Cougars following their huge upset of Notre Dame in Provo last week. This game has letdown written all over it for BYU, which is making the long trip to the east coast after their big win and will have to cope with Florida humidity and weather conditions (wind and possible rain). And UCF isn't that bad of a team, especially playing in the Bounce House. Before their bye they had back to back road trips at Houston and Oklahoma St. and were competitive in both. At Houston they actually led 17-0 late in the third quarter before losing 27-17, and in Stillwater were tied 21 all with the Cowboys at the half, and only trailed by three in the fourth quarter! If they can put all four quarters together here I can see them coming away with an outright win!

Boise St. -14'  WASHINGTON ST. - The Broncos are coming into this one rested after their bye. The Cougars showed they actually have a pulse after last week's 48-30 loss in Corvallis. Boise's secondary has been burned for some big plays this season but offensively they're clicking, averaging 234.5 yards a game on the ground (5.4 YPR) and leading the nation in time of possession. In their win at Fresno two weeks ago they closed it out with a 14 play drive, all runs, that took 7:40 off the clock. And Maddux Madson has thrown 13 TD passes with nary a pick. I'm not betting this game but the Broncos SHOULD cover this.

More later.

 Thanks for Marshall on Tues. it wasn't even on my radar. I like your thinking on Mich. and the total in that game . I have both straight, parl, and teased a little. Thanks for all your info, and good luck with the rest.

@Leroy11

 Best of luck bud! Hope it hits for ya! 

Saturday evening 

Virginia Tech +2' CLEMSON - The Hokies opened as a slight favorite in this one, and if they can shut down the Tigers run game and force the Tigers to throw I like their chances. It doesn't seem to matter who plays QB for Clemson, as they only average 187.8 yards a game through the air. Conversely, Virginia Tech's Ethan Grunkemeyer passes for 283.4 yards a game, but will be facing the toughest defense he's faced so far. I do have a concern as to whether his pass protection can hold up against Clemson's front, but since the beginning of last season the Tiger Paw is just 2-7 ATS in Death Valley East, and would be 1-8 except for an improbable last minute win/cover against North Carolina in Week Three.

Vanderbilt +10' KENTUCKY - The Wildcats have been the biggest surprise in the SEC this season under first year HC Will Stein. But this feels like a potential letdown spot off three SU underdog wins, including two in OT. They're 4-1 SU and ATS in conference play, but they're 0-5 ITS. Last week they took advantage of four Oklahoma turnovers in a 21-13 win, but were outgained by 116 total yards. They lead the SEC in turnover margin at plus 11, while the Commodores are at minus five. Eventually those things have a tendency to even out and maybe it'll happen in this game. Vanderbilt isn't very good and frosh QB Jared Curtis will have to play clean to keep this close, but the 'Dores are a sizzling 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 tries as a road dog.

Syracuse +9' NORTH CAROLINA - I'm not sure who will be behind center for the Orange in this one. They've used five QBs so far this season with three of them making starts. Malachi Nelson got the start in last week's 34-26 loss to Louisville, throwing for 315 yards and two TDs with two ints. At 0-4 Syracuse is still looking for its' first conference win, but they're 2-2 ATS, 3-1 ITS and have only lost one game by more than eight points. I think they've got a legit shot here vs. a Tar Heel team coming off a 24-20 win over arch rival Duke that they were still celebrating on Sunday afternoon. North Carolina comes into this game favored for the first time this year, and despite being 4-1 ATS as a dog they've been outgained in four of the five games.

Ole Miss +3 TEXAS - I bet against the Rebels last week and got my ass handed to me as they played their most complete game of the season in a 31-3 blowout of Missouri, a week after blasting Vanderbilt, 52-17. They seem to have rediscovered their defense since their bye week and Trinidad Chambliss is the best QB in the country. The Longhorns are headed in the opposite direction, having dropped their last two to Oklahoma and Florida by identical 27-24 scores. Arch Manning appears to be in full regression mode and top defender Colin Simmons is out. The fact that this game opened at Texas -9' shows how far they've fallen over the past two weeks.

WISCONSIN +3 Usc - I don't necessarily like the Badgers here. This is more of me not trusting the Trojans as a road favorite outside the state of California. They're 1-14 ATS under Lincoln Riley in that role. If Rutgers can score 35 points against that defense then Wisconsin should be able to move the ball as well. The best way to stop Jordan Maiava and the USC offense is to keep them on the sidelines and the Badgers are equipped to do just that with a strong run game. They also have the better defense.

Virginia Tech-Clemson - the line is up to +3 now. Gonna have to do a deeper dive into this one. 

Ole Miss-Texas - I'm off this game. There's no value in the line with the Rebs coming off back to back blowout wins and the 'Horns off two upset losses. Besides, taking a team that I bet against the week before has always been bad juju for me. Texas COULD rise up here, but it's tough to bet on Arch Manning. 

GL on your plays mah man @Boisestateand8

Laying off Virginia Tech, at least on the current number of +3. Not sure how their patchwork offensive line will hold up against a pretty good Clemson defensive front. MIGHT bite if I can catch the hook. 

USC-Wisconsin - the line has dropped to 2'. Gotta have at least 3 before I invest in this one. Two thirds of the bets are on the Trojans, but it appears the sharps are on the Badgers.