NCAA Week 7 Ponderings

Still kicking myself for a couple of bets I made last week (Florida St, Penn St.) and a couple I talked myself out of (Iowa, Purdue). Changing the format a little bit. I'll list the games I'm looking at with the current lines as usual, but I'll use bold type for which way I'm leaning to avoid confusion.

Friday, Oct. 16

Memphis -7 TULANE - The Tigers have played just two and a half quarters of bad football all season, against Boise St. in Week Two. Other than that game they've dominated, including last week's 38-13 blowout of a decent UAB team. The road team in this series has won the last three meetings and the Green Wave don't look near as formidable this year as they did under Jon Sumrall. Memphis is 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, is still in the hunt for the G6 CFP bid, and SHOULD roll here.

Washington +3' PURDUE - The Huskies have been a disappointment this season and looked to have hit rock bottom last week when starting QB Demond Williams left late in the first half with a rib injury and Washington trailing 27-0. Backup QB Elijah Brown started the second half and went 28 of 39 for 251 yards and three TDs. MAYBE he's the spark that can turn things around for this team. The Boilermakers are improved under Barry Odom and are off back to back upset wins over Illinois and Minnesota, but this is the first time they've been favored all season. Maybe they'll avenge last season's blowout loss in Seattle, and they're certainly a team on the rise, but I have a feeling the Huskies could rise up here behind their backup QB.

that inept scheme Jedd runs is better suited for his backup, I just don’t want to back him in his first start on the road but the line value is there 

Jedd did a press conference & spoke about spending & resources, meanwhile Iowa who has less money & resources boat raced him in his home stadium with their backup Qb haha

what a clown show he’s making of a classic program 

good luck my friend 

Saturday, Oct. 17 - early games 

Florida Atlantic +2' ARMY - The Owls are off a bye, and two weeks ago they blew out a FCS school, so they've had ample time to prepare Army's option attack. Plus, they've already encountered the option in Week Two when they upset Navy, 38-30. Since the opening week blowout loss at Florida, FAU has gone 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. The Black Knights are 3-2 SU but 0-3-1 ATS. I think the wrong team may be favored here, but I liked it better when it opened at +3.

BOWLING GREEN -6' Ball St. - The Bee Gees opened the season with four straight losses including a 20-13 setback to FCS Tarleton St. in the opener, but they appear to have turned things around in the past three weeks. They played USF tough as a 17' point dog, then upset Miami-OH on the road and smoked Sac St. last week. They're on a 3-0 ATS run and will look to keep it going against a Cardinals team that's still looking for their first win against FBS competition. In losses to fellow G6 teams Liberty, Kent St. and Toledo they were outgained by an average of 175.3 yards a game, and lost each by at least two TDs. Looks like more of the same here.

INDIANA +3 Ohio St. - In four years of coaching FBS ball Curt Cignetti has NEVER been a home underdog, until now. The Hoosiers aren't quite as strong as last year's juggernaut, and they're just 1-4 ATS, but these lines have been insanely high. You can point out how they had to struggle to get past Northwestern and Nebraska, but those two teams combined are 9-2 SU and 8-1 ATS! Not taking anything away from the Buckeyes here, but this game will come down to the pass rush, and Indiana has a clear advantage there. If they can consistently pressure Julian Sayin they've got a puncher's shot at an outright win. Despite 71% of the bets on Ohio St. the line has dropped from +3'. I still like it but wish I still had the hook.

Georgia St. +10' JAMES MADISON - The bottom has dropped out of this line after it opened at +12' but I'm still leaning towards the Panthers here. They're off a bye and are vastly improved, already winning as many games as the past three years combined and they're 4-0 ATS! The Dukes survived a tussle at Georgia Southern last week, winning 27-24, and now return to Harrisonburg for their Homecoming game. I'm not so sure it will be a happy one.

Northwestern -7 MICHIGAN ST. - The Wildcats go up against their old coach, Pat Fitzgerald, in this one. David Braun has this team rolling right now. They basically breezed past Ball St. last week in a look ahead spot, failing to cover the 35 point spread, but in their three prior games they covered easily. The Spartans are off a 38-37 OT homecoming loss to Illinois and are 0-4 SU and ITS vs. FBS competition, and except for last week really haven't been competitive. It's Northwestern or nobody in this one.

TEMPLE -21 Charlotte - Not saying the Owls are good, but they ARE 3-1-1 ATS, with that one loss coming last week in their Homecoming game against UConn. They'll be looking to rebound against the worst team in the FBS. The 49ers are 0-6 already, including a loss to The Citadel in the season opener. They've lost their last three games by scores of 34-7, 59-8 and 50-10, and have the look of a team that's ready for the season to be over.

I agree with everything you said Wahoo. I'm leaning Huskies but probably won't bet it. Gotta see how the team responds to the new guy behind center. BOL my friend! 

Saturday afternoon games 

North Carolina +3 DUKE - The Bill Belichick revenge tour continues. He was one of the best in revenge games when he was in the NFL, and so far he's carried that over into the college game. First was a 15-10 win over TCU in Ireland, and three weeks later they shoulda, woulda, coulda beat Clemson in Death Valley. That one was a bad beat for me. Now comes the Blue Devils, who won on Chapel Hill last season, 32-25. The Tar Heels are battle tested, having also played Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, losing the former 37-26 and winning the latter 21-17. This is arguably Duke's biggest test of the season, and they off of their bye week with a 28-25 upset loss at Georgia Tech. This line opened at +4' and has been bet down.......for good reason. 

Missouri +5' OLE MISS - I've actually already played this game. I bet it yesterday with my local book at +6. This is an awesome QB matchup between the Tigers' Austin Simmons and the Rebels' Trinidad Chambliss, but I think this game comes down to who has the better defense, and that's clearly Mizzou. Behind Simmons and RB Jamal Roberts, who has posted back to back 200 yard games in blowouts of Florida and A&M, the Tigers can chew up clock against a porous Ole Miss stop unit, and limit possessions for Chambliss and company. I don't do money line bets, but if I did I might start with his one. 

OREGON ST. -18' Washington St. - As a Boise St. fan, this Beaver team scares the hell out of me! They've beaten their last three opponents by an average of 33 points a game, and gave both Houston and Texas Tech a run for their money in the first two weeks of the season. Granted, you could make the argument that they haven't really played anybody since those first two games, BUT, they ain't playing anybody THIS week either! The Cougars have had a rough season under first year HC Kirby Moore, with their only win of the season coming against FCS Duquesne. Things figure to get even rougher this week and next, when Boise St. comes to Pullman.

Saturday evening games

MIAMI FL -20' Florida St. - "Won't Get Fooled Again", the classic song by the Who is my theme song for this game. The Seminoles fooled me into thinking they were turning things around two weeks ago with a 38-7 blowout win over Virginia. So I completely ignored their 11 game road losing streak (2-10 ATS), and took the 4' points at Louisville like a rainbow trout going after a fat juicy worm.  Lesson learned. FSU gave up nearly 400 yards on the ground in that 44-20 loss and now have to contend with Mark Fletcher and Javian Mallory, who have combined to rush for 596 yards, as well as the Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney led aerial attack. The Hurricanes are off a bye and probably won't let their foot off the gas against their biggest rival. And this just in; the Canes are pretty good at playing defense too. Don't see this one being close.

NORTH DAKOTA ST. -14' Nevada - The Bison lost their first game of the season last week, 13-7 at UNLV, and now return home to the Fargodome where they've compiled an 83-6 record over the last ten years! I'm certainly not fading that!

Kentucky +6' OKLAHOMA - The Wildcats have a plus nine turnover differential, good for ninth best in the country, and are off back to back upset wins in OT over South Carolina and LSU, both by identical 35-34 scores. Can they hit the trifecta? It's possible. The Sooners are off a huge 27-24 upset of arch rival Texas and played turnover free ball for the first time this season. They needed to play clean because they were outgained 382 total yards to 238. They've been offensively challenged all season, and I'm not sure they can duplicate last week's effort in what could be a potential flat spot.

Notre Dame -10' BYU - The Fighting Irish continue their "Leave no Doubt" tour, but this will be their biggest test of the year, at least until they host Miami in three weeks. It's because of THAT game that they can't afford to lose this one. A two loss Notre Dame could get shut out of the CFP again, while BYU could lose this one and still get the auto bid if they win the Big 12. Not having top back LJ Martin against one of the best defenses in the nation is a problem for the Cougars, but they don't lose many in Provo. I see this one being close for a while before Notre Dame pulls away late.

Nebraska +7 OREGON - The Cornhuskers came as close as any team has of ending Indiana's long winning streak. They held a 17-6 fourth quarter lead over the Hoosiers and lost it on two huge pass plays, but they dominated for most of the game and controlled the ball for over 39 minutes. Anthony Colandrea can beat you throwing (1406 yards, 13 TDS and just three interceptions) or running (296 yards, 5.4 YPR) and gives the 'Huskers an edge over Oregon with Dante Moore ruled out again. Not sure who will be behind center for the Ducks, but something seems to be broken with this team. Wouldn't be shocked to see Nebraska win outright.