September is in the rearview, along with my 7-8 ATS record for the month. Down 6.5 units. Had a nice run last October, so hopefully history repeats itself, starting this weekend. Here's some games I'm looking at with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS
Friday, Oct. 2nd
Liberty -6' (down from -7) DELAWARE - After an opening day loss at JMU the Flames are starting to look like the team I thought they'd be at the beginning of the season. They grade out as the better team in this matchup, and destroyed Delaware last season, 59-30. But this is their second straight road game, and the Fightin' Blue Hens fight especially hard at home. They're 23-4 SU in the chicken coop under HC Ryan Carry, and were 2-0 ATS as a home dog last season.
Penn St. -3 NORTHWESTERN - The Nittany Lions' first big test of the season was last week at home vs. Wisconsin, and they failed miserably, falling to the Badgers, 24-20, and only mustering up 233 yards of total offense. Now they have to face a hot Northwestern team on a short week. The Wildcats gave Indiana fits last Friday, losing 29-23 in Bloomington as a three TD dog. That was on the heels of a 41-7 rout of Colorado the week before. This is a team on the rise, and they finally get to open their brand new stadium before a nationally televised audience. I'm liking me a home doggie in this one.
That's it for now. Got family stuff going on, but it's GOOD family stuff and that always takes priority over football.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
September is in the rearview, along with my 7-8 ATS record for the month. Down 6.5 units. Had a nice run last October, so hopefully history repeats itself, starting this weekend. Here's some games I'm looking at with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS
Friday, Oct. 2nd
Liberty -6' (down from -7) DELAWARE - After an opening day loss at JMU the Flames are starting to look like the team I thought they'd be at the beginning of the season. They grade out as the better team in this matchup, and destroyed Delaware last season, 59-30. But this is their second straight road game, and the Fightin' Blue Hens fight especially hard at home. They're 23-4 SU in the chicken coop under HC Ryan Carry, and were 2-0 ATS as a home dog last season.
Penn St. -3 NORTHWESTERN - The Nittany Lions' first big test of the season was last week at home vs. Wisconsin, and they failed miserably, falling to the Badgers, 24-20, and only mustering up 233 yards of total offense. Now they have to face a hot Northwestern team on a short week. The Wildcats gave Indiana fits last Friday, losing 29-23 in Bloomington as a three TD dog. That was on the heels of a 41-7 rout of Colorado the week before. This is a team on the rise, and they finally get to open their brand new stadium before a nationally televised audience. I'm liking me a home doggie in this one.
That's it for now. Got family stuff going on, but it's GOOD family stuff and that always takes priority over football.
Notre Dame -22' (down from -24') NORTH CAROLINA - The Fighting Irish continue their "leave no doubt" tour and should carry an unblemished record into Provo in two weeks. But four blowout wins has sucked the value right out of this line and has me looking at the dog here. The Irish are making a second straight road trip and facing a rested Tar Heel team that had Clemson on the ropes two weeks ago in Death Valley. That loss STILL stings.
WAKE FOREST -14 ( up from -12') Stanford - Since joining the ACC the Cardinal has lost 11 straight on the road and has gone 2-10 ATS. Wake is coming off a big upset win at Louisville and hung tough with Miami two weeks ago. I love the job HC Jake Dickert is doing with this team but I don't know if I wanna lay two full TDS here.
Michigan -5' (down from -8') MINNESOTA - The Wolverines hit the road for the first time this season and are looking to erase the stink from last week's 20-19 upset loss to Iowa. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 144 total yards and dominated time of possession, but allowed a 99 yard kickoff return for a score that proved to be the difference. Ironically, QB Bryce Underwood had one of his best games, going 17 of 28 for 276 yards and a pair of scores. He's hit on 68% of his passes the last two games so maybe he's figured things out. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 27-24 upset win at Washington as a 12 point dog (and kudos to Train for making it one of his top three plays), but I don't think the Huskies are that good. With Michigan coming in off an upset loss and Minny off an upset win I see some value on the road favorite in this one.
Alabama -5' ( up from -3) MISSISSIPPI ST. - The Crimson Tide are hitting on all cylinders and could "ROLL" in this one (see what I did there? ), but they've got a massive game with Georgia on deck. This is the second straight year the Bulldogs have opened the season 4-0, and led by QB Kamario Taylor they could prove problematic if 'Bama doesn't give them their full attention.
GEORGIA -25 ( up from -23') Vanderbilt - The Commodores won't win this game, but they're a sizzling 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 tries as a road dog, and this is a HUGE number for the Bulldogs to cover considering they have that huge game at Alabama upcoming. Last week Georgia laid a 41-13 beatdown on Oklahoma, but they got 24 points off four Sooner turnovers and only had ten more total yards. I doubt the scrappy 'Dores will be as generous with the football.
Saturday early games
Notre Dame -22' (down from -24') NORTH CAROLINA - The Fighting Irish continue their "leave no doubt" tour and should carry an unblemished record into Provo in two weeks. But four blowout wins has sucked the value right out of this line and has me looking at the dog here. The Irish are making a second straight road trip and facing a rested Tar Heel team that had Clemson on the ropes two weeks ago in Death Valley. That loss STILL stings.
WAKE FOREST -14 ( up from -12') Stanford - Since joining the ACC the Cardinal has lost 11 straight on the road and has gone 2-10 ATS. Wake is coming off a big upset win at Louisville and hung tough with Miami two weeks ago. I love the job HC Jake Dickert is doing with this team but I don't know if I wanna lay two full TDS here.
Michigan -5' (down from -8') MINNESOTA - The Wolverines hit the road for the first time this season and are looking to erase the stink from last week's 20-19 upset loss to Iowa. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 144 total yards and dominated time of possession, but allowed a 99 yard kickoff return for a score that proved to be the difference. Ironically, QB Bryce Underwood had one of his best games, going 17 of 28 for 276 yards and a pair of scores. He's hit on 68% of his passes the last two games so maybe he's figured things out. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 27-24 upset win at Washington as a 12 point dog (and kudos to Train for making it one of his top three plays), but I don't think the Huskies are that good. With Michigan coming in off an upset loss and Minny off an upset win I see some value on the road favorite in this one.
Alabama -5' ( up from -3) MISSISSIPPI ST. - The Crimson Tide are hitting on all cylinders and could "ROLL" in this one (see what I did there? ), but they've got a massive game with Georgia on deck. This is the second straight year the Bulldogs have opened the season 4-0, and led by QB Kamario Taylor they could prove problematic if 'Bama doesn't give them their full attention.
GEORGIA -25 ( up from -23') Vanderbilt - The Commodores won't win this game, but they're a sizzling 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 tries as a road dog, and this is a HUGE number for the Bulldogs to cover considering they have that huge game at Alabama upcoming. Last week Georgia laid a 41-13 beatdown on Oklahoma, but they got 24 points off four Sooner turnovers and only had ten more total yards. I doubt the scrappy 'Dores will be as generous with the football.
NC QB Edwards has completed 50% of his passes vs FBS teams. He's not in any way, a dual threat, having a total 7 yards rushing for the year. ND won't be giving him much time in the pocket, he will need to get rid of the ball quickly or suffer the same fate Purdue's QB did last week, 6 sacks. NC has scored 3 TDs vs FBS opponents, all in the 1st quarter. ND defense allows 8 points and just under 200 yards/game, 54 on the ground and 145 over the top. It's hard for me to see this being close.
@Boisestateand8
About ND vs NC...
NC QB Edwards has completed 50% of his passes vs FBS teams. He's not in any way, a dual threat, having a total 7 yards rushing for the year. ND won't be giving him much time in the pocket, he will need to get rid of the ball quickly or suffer the same fate Purdue's QB did last week, 6 sacks. NC has scored 3 TDs vs FBS opponents, all in the 1st quarter. ND defense allows 8 points and just under 200 yards/game, 54 on the ground and 145 over the top. It's hard for me to see this being close.
@Boisestateand8 About ND vs NC... NC QB Edwards has completed 50% of his passes vs FBS teams. He's not in any way, a dual threat, having a total 7 yards rushing for the year. ND won't be giving him much time in the pocket, he will need to get rid of the ball quickly or suffer the same fate Purdue's QB did last week, 6 sacks. NC has scored 3 TDs vs FBS opponents, all in the 1st quarter. ND defense allows 8 points and just under 200 yards/game, 54 on the ground and 145 over the top. It's hard for me to see this being close.
No argument on the talent discrepancy, but with the Irish on the second of back to back road games, and the Tar Heels off a bye, giving Belichick two weeks to prepare, anything over three TDs seems generous.
Quote Originally Posted by lazzybum:
@Boisestateand8 About ND vs NC... NC QB Edwards has completed 50% of his passes vs FBS teams. He's not in any way, a dual threat, having a total 7 yards rushing for the year. ND won't be giving him much time in the pocket, he will need to get rid of the ball quickly or suffer the same fate Purdue's QB did last week, 6 sacks. NC has scored 3 TDs vs FBS opponents, all in the 1st quarter. ND defense allows 8 points and just under 200 yards/game, 54 on the ground and 145 over the top. It's hard for me to see this being close.
No argument on the talent discrepancy, but with the Irish on the second of back to back road games, and the Tar Heels off a bye, giving Belichick two weeks to prepare, anything over three TDs seems generous.
TENNESSEE -6' (down from -7') Auburn - Leaning with the War Eagle crew, but I liked this game a lot better with the opening line. I don't think Auburn is anything special, but I have to wonder if Volunteers QB Faizon Brandon might be seeing ghosts in this game after enduring TEN SACKS against Texas. Do the Vols have anything left in the tank after leaving it all on the field last week?
Ohio St. -14' (up from -14) IOWA - The Buckeyes gave up 462 total yards in their 42-19 win over Illinois last week, so MAYBE that bodes well for the Hawkeyes, who only managed 285 in that upset at Ann Arbor. It's not often you see a Kirk Ferentz team as a home dog. They covered twice in that role a year ago against both Indiana and Oregon. If they want the trifecta they BETTER bring some offense to the table to keep up with Ohio St., which is averaging 522 yards and 45 points a game.
Florida -5' (up from -2') MISSOURI - It's Homecoming week in Columbia and the home team could come ready to play, but it doesn't appear wise to fade a Gators team that's on a roll under first year HC Jon Sumrall. They rush for 260 yards a game (5.9 YPR) and gained 302 against Ole Miss last week. Mizzou allowed Mississippi St. RB Fluff Bothwell to rush for 122 yards at 4.9 yards per pop. That doesn't bode well for the Tigers vs. a team who has yet to be challenged.
SOUTH CAROLINA -2' (down from -7) Kentucky - The Wildcats are on an 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak in this series, but COULD be ready to turn the tables this week. Unfortunately, with the Wildcats off back to back impressive wins and the Gamecocks off back to back losses, the value has been sucked right out of this line.
Oregon St. -6' ( up from -3') COLORADO ST. - HC Jamarcus Shephard is doing a great job in his first year in Corvallis. The Beavs took both Houston and Texas Tech down to the wire and have blown out their last two opponents, but this is their second straight away from home after trouncing UTEP last week. The Rams, under first year HC Jim Mora, are coming off back to back blowout losses, but could rise up here on Homecoming. It this line hits -7 the home dog might be worth a look here.
Saturday afternoon games
TENNESSEE -6' (down from -7') Auburn - Leaning with the War Eagle crew, but I liked this game a lot better with the opening line. I don't think Auburn is anything special, but I have to wonder if Volunteers QB Faizon Brandon might be seeing ghosts in this game after enduring TEN SACKS against Texas. Do the Vols have anything left in the tank after leaving it all on the field last week?
Ohio St. -14' (up from -14) IOWA - The Buckeyes gave up 462 total yards in their 42-19 win over Illinois last week, so MAYBE that bodes well for the Hawkeyes, who only managed 285 in that upset at Ann Arbor. It's not often you see a Kirk Ferentz team as a home dog. They covered twice in that role a year ago against both Indiana and Oregon. If they want the trifecta they BETTER bring some offense to the table to keep up with Ohio St., which is averaging 522 yards and 45 points a game.
Florida -5' (up from -2') MISSOURI - It's Homecoming week in Columbia and the home team could come ready to play, but it doesn't appear wise to fade a Gators team that's on a roll under first year HC Jon Sumrall. They rush for 260 yards a game (5.9 YPR) and gained 302 against Ole Miss last week. Mizzou allowed Mississippi St. RB Fluff Bothwell to rush for 122 yards at 4.9 yards per pop. That doesn't bode well for the Tigers vs. a team who has yet to be challenged.
SOUTH CAROLINA -2' (down from -7) Kentucky - The Wildcats are on an 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak in this series, but COULD be ready to turn the tables this week. Unfortunately, with the Wildcats off back to back impressive wins and the Gamecocks off back to back losses, the value has been sucked right out of this line.
Oregon St. -6' ( up from -3') COLORADO ST. - HC Jamarcus Shephard is doing a great job in his first year in Corvallis. The Beavs took both Houston and Texas Tech down to the wire and have blown out their last two opponents, but this is their second straight away from home after trouncing UTEP last week. The Rams, under first year HC Jim Mora, are coming off back to back blowout losses, but could rise up here on Homecoming. It this line hits -7 the home dog might be worth a look here.
Miami FL -15' (up from -7) CLEMSON - It looks like wet weather is in the forecast with the possibility of yet another lightning delay for the third straight week in Death Valley. This COULD be Miami's biggest test so far this season. As talented as they are it seems you can always count on Mario Cristobal to lose a game or two that the Hurricanes have no business losing. The Tigers have an extra day of prep time for the 'Canes explosive offense, and here's a fun fact to ponder over: Clemson has NEVER been a double digit home dog under Dabo Swinney. I still think their glory days are over, but they could hang within the number here.
BOISE ST. -18' (down from -20') Utah St. - The Broncos are off an impressive 32-7 rout of Western Michigan (the team that beat Michigan, and I don't give a rat's what the Big Ten says), and seem to be rounding into form. They won't beat you with explosive plays, but their ground game has been unstoppable, and they lead the nation in average time of possession at 37:14. And QB Maddux Madson has yet to have a single turnover in four games. I rarely make a bet where my alma mater is concerned, but I don't see the Aggies keeping this close.
ARIZONA ST. -3' Baylor - The Bears are one play away from being unbeaten, and look to avenge last season's 27-24 loss in Waco. I'm not sold on D.J. Lagway, who has completed less than 50% of his passes, but Dave Aranda 's defense is light years better than the 2025 edition, allowing just 13 points a game. The Sun Devils have been involved in a pair of phony finals in their last two games. They outgained Texas A&M by 114 yards but were blown out, 48-20, in Week Two, and the following week they knocked off Kansas in London, 24-17, but were outgained by 186 yards! They're off a bye, but it feels like the wrong team may be favored here.
ARIZONA -7 (down from -8') Cincinnati - The Desert Cats upset the Bearcats, 30-24, last season in Cincy. Revenge? Possibly. Cincinnati's powerful ground attack averages 270 yards a game (6.5 YPR) and will test a stout Arizona run defense that allows just 80.3 yards a game (3.1). 'Zona counters with an air attack that averages 299.5 yards a game. But the Wildcats are 0-3 ATS so far and this line seems a mite steep against the unbeaten Bearcats.
Saturday evening games
Miami FL -15' (up from -7) CLEMSON - It looks like wet weather is in the forecast with the possibility of yet another lightning delay for the third straight week in Death Valley. This COULD be Miami's biggest test so far this season. As talented as they are it seems you can always count on Mario Cristobal to lose a game or two that the Hurricanes have no business losing. The Tigers have an extra day of prep time for the 'Canes explosive offense, and here's a fun fact to ponder over: Clemson has NEVER been a double digit home dog under Dabo Swinney. I still think their glory days are over, but they could hang within the number here.
BOISE ST. -18' (down from -20') Utah St. - The Broncos are off an impressive 32-7 rout of Western Michigan (the team that beat Michigan, and I don't give a rat's what the Big Ten says), and seem to be rounding into form. They won't beat you with explosive plays, but their ground game has been unstoppable, and they lead the nation in average time of possession at 37:14. And QB Maddux Madson has yet to have a single turnover in four games. I rarely make a bet where my alma mater is concerned, but I don't see the Aggies keeping this close.
ARIZONA ST. -3' Baylor - The Bears are one play away from being unbeaten, and look to avenge last season's 27-24 loss in Waco. I'm not sold on D.J. Lagway, who has completed less than 50% of his passes, but Dave Aranda 's defense is light years better than the 2025 edition, allowing just 13 points a game. The Sun Devils have been involved in a pair of phony finals in their last two games. They outgained Texas A&M by 114 yards but were blown out, 48-20, in Week Two, and the following week they knocked off Kansas in London, 24-17, but were outgained by 186 yards! They're off a bye, but it feels like the wrong team may be favored here.
ARIZONA -7 (down from -8') Cincinnati - The Desert Cats upset the Bearcats, 30-24, last season in Cincy. Revenge? Possibly. Cincinnati's powerful ground attack averages 270 yards a game (6.5 YPR) and will test a stout Arizona run defense that allows just 80.3 yards a game (3.1). 'Zona counters with an air attack that averages 299.5 yards a game. But the Wildcats are 0-3 ATS so far and this line seems a mite steep against the unbeaten Bearcats.
Taking a deeper look into the Kentucky-South Carolina game. Throwing out the games each team has played against the FCS and G6, we get a more accurate account of each team's strength. Both teams got rolled by Alabama, but a look inside the numbers reveals how bad the Wildcats were dominated at home, at least in the second half. They were held to just 209 total yards, and rushed for 63 (2.0 YPR). Compare that with the Gamecocks who lost by a similar score in Tuscaloosa, but they gained 419 total yards, including 216 on the ground (5.4) against that same defense! Kentucky's SEC win was at Texas A&M, a team that has fallen waaaaay short of preseason expectations. The 'Cocks other SEC loss was to a Mississippi St. team that's far better than anyone expected. South Carolina has now lost seven straight conference games. Their last win was a 35-13 rout of Kentucky, their fourth straight in the series. My initial lean was with the Wildcats but the value play is on the Gamecocks at -2'.
Taking a deeper look into the Kentucky-South Carolina game. Throwing out the games each team has played against the FCS and G6, we get a more accurate account of each team's strength. Both teams got rolled by Alabama, but a look inside the numbers reveals how bad the Wildcats were dominated at home, at least in the second half. They were held to just 209 total yards, and rushed for 63 (2.0 YPR). Compare that with the Gamecocks who lost by a similar score in Tuscaloosa, but they gained 419 total yards, including 216 on the ground (5.4) against that same defense! Kentucky's SEC win was at Texas A&M, a team that has fallen waaaaay short of preseason expectations. The 'Cocks other SEC loss was to a Mississippi St. team that's far better than anyone expected. South Carolina has now lost seven straight conference games. Their last win was a 35-13 rout of Kentucky, their fourth straight in the series. My initial lean was with the Wildcats but the value play is on the Gamecocks at -2'.
), but they've got a massive game with Georgia on deck. This is the second straight year the Bulldogs have opened the season 4-0, and led by QB Kamario Taylor they could prove problematic if 'Bama doesn't give them their full attention. 
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