I had a frustrating Week Three. Two blown fourth quarter leads, one in college football (North Carolina) and one in the NFL (Jets) turned a winning week into a losing week. It's enough to piss off the pope! Here's a list of games I'm looking at with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS
Friday, Sept. 25
INDIANA -20' (down from -23') Northwestern - This is the first real test for the champs who are 0-3 ATS. They had their hands full with North Texas in the season opener, despite what the 52-16 final might indicate. The Mean Green only trailed by 15 points going into the fourth quarter of that game and the total yardage was virtually even. The Wildcats opened up an Indiana type can of whup ass on Colorado last week, winning 41-7, as QB Aidan Chiles went 17 of 22 for 241 yards and three TDs and also ran for a pair of scores. Northwestern could hang around in this game, but I liked the line better at +21.
Clemson -2' (up from -1') CALIFORNIA - The Tigers were being outplayed for over three and a half quarters last week before a long weather delay. When play resumed the wheels came off my 4 unit play on the Tar Heels, as Clemson got 99 of their 185 rushing yards in the final five plus minutes. The most aggravating part of that game was the last TD. All they needed was the first down and then victory formation. Cal beat me two weeks ago with their 21-18 upset at Syracuse, despite being outgained in that game by 187 total yards. As for this game, Clemson is the better team but this is a long road trip they've got Miami on deck.
Saturday, Sept. 26 - early games
Virginia Tech -14 BOSTON COLLEGE - The Hokies also beat me last week with a convincing 35-26 win at Maryland, but now they're on the road again, and a team that's laying double digits and playing a second consecutive game away always gets my Spidey sense a tingling. I just can't get myself to back BC though.
LOUISVILLE -13' Wake Forest - The Cardinals got the game they wanted last week, a 41-31 win over nemesis SMU, following back to back losses to the Mustangs the previous two years. The Demon Deacons are good enough to take advantage if Louisville comes into this game a little flat, and QB Gio Lopez is capable of leading his team to a back door cover as they did against Miami last Friday night.
OHIO ST. -26' (down from -27') Illinois - This line seems a mite steep but the Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS and stepping in front of them seems like risky business.
Texas -4' (down from -7) TENNESSEE - First road game of the year for the Longhorns and I'm not sold on Arch Manning and his 139.1 passer rating. The Vols are averaging 298.7 rushing yards a game (6.7 YPR), taking the pressure off of frosh QB Faizon Brandon who has thrown six TD passes with nary an interception. Rocky Top looks like the play here.
TOLEDO -3 (flipped from +1') San Diego St. - Since the beginning of the 2024 season teams from the MAC are just 2-11 ATS as chalk vs. any other conference. That includes the Rockets' come from behind 49-48 OT win over Temple as a four and a half point favorite. I'd be on the Aztecs here but they haven't shown me much thus far and this is one of those body clock games with a 9 AM PDT start time.
Ucla -1' MARYLAND - The Terps let me, and their fans down last week, and HC Mike Locksley's seat is pretty warm right now. Injuries to the RB room have left them with just TWO scholarship players, but QB Malik Washington should be able to rack up some yards against a Bruins secondary that tends to give up a few. It's a long road trip for UCLA and a somewhat early start time, but Bob Chesney's crew is 3-0 SU and ATS and I'm a bit skittish about fading them here.
Hot Forum Topics
