NCAA Week 4 Ponderings

I had a frustrating Week Three. Two blown fourth quarter leads, one in college football (North Carolina) and one in the NFL (Jets) turned a winning week into a losing week. It's enough to piss off the pope! Here's a list of games I'm looking at with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS.

Friday, Sept. 25

INDIANA -20' (down from -23') Northwestern - This is the first real test for the champs who are 0-3 ATS. They had their hands full with North Texas in the season opener, despite what the 52-16 final might indicate. The Mean Green only trailed by 15 points going into the fourth quarter of that game and the total yardage was virtually even. The Wildcats opened up an Indiana type can of whup ass on Colorado last week, winning 41-7, as QB Aidan Chiles went 17 of 22 for 241 yards and three TDs and also ran for a pair of scores. Northwestern could hang around in this game, but I liked the line better at +21.

Clemson -2' (up from -1') CALIFORNIA - The Tigers were being outplayed for over three and a half quarters last week before a long weather delay. When play resumed the wheels came off my 4 unit play on the Tar Heels, as Clemson got 99 of their 185 rushing yards in the final five plus minutes. The most aggravating part of that game was the last TD. All they needed was the first down and then victory formation. Cal beat me two weeks ago with their 21-18 upset at Syracuse, despite being outgained in that game by 187 total yards. As for this game, Clemson is the better team but this is a long road trip they've got Miami on deck. 

Saturday, Sept. 26 - early games

Virginia Tech -14 BOSTON COLLEGE - The Hokies also beat me last week with a convincing 35-26 win at Maryland, but now they're on the road again, and a team that's laying double digits and playing a second consecutive game away always gets my Spidey sense a tingling. I just can't get myself to back BC though.

LOUISVILLE -13' Wake Forest - The Cardinals got the game they wanted last week, a 41-31 win over nemesis SMU, following back to back losses to the Mustangs the previous two years. The Demon Deacons are good enough to take advantage if Louisville comes into this game a little flat, and QB Gio Lopez is capable of leading his team to a back door cover as they did against Miami last Friday night.

OHIO ST. -26' (down from -27') Illinois - This line seems a mite steep but the Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS and stepping in front of them seems like risky business.

Texas -4' (down from -7) TENNESSEE - First road game of the year for the Longhorns and I'm not sold on Arch Manning and his 139.1 passer rating. The Vols are averaging 298.7 rushing yards a game (6.7 YPR), taking the pressure off of frosh QB Faizon Brandon who has thrown six TD passes with nary an interception. Rocky Top looks like the play here.

TOLEDO -3 (flipped from +1') San Diego St. - Since the beginning of the 2024 season teams from the MAC are just 2-11 ATS as chalk vs. any other conference. That includes the Rockets' come from behind 49-48 OT win over Temple as a four and a half point favorite. I'd be on the Aztecs here but they haven't shown me much thus far and this is one of those body clock games with a 9 AM PDT start time.

Ucla -1' MARYLAND - The Terps let me, and their fans down last week, and HC Mike Locksley's seat is pretty warm right now. Injuries to the RB room have left them with just TWO scholarship players, but QB Malik Washington should be able to rack up some yards against a Bruins secondary that tends to give up a few. It's a long road trip for UCLA and a somewhat early start time, but Bob Chesney's crew is 3-0 SU and ATS and I'm a bit skittish about fading them here.

Saturday afternoon games

FLORIDA -3' (up from -1') Ole Miss - The Rebels are off a huge win in the Lane Kiffin Bowl, beating LSU 32-24 last week. Could they come up a little flat in this one? I'm not sold on their defense, which is allowing 159 rushing yards a game (4.1 YPR), going up against a Gator juggernaut that's averaging 246 rushing yards a game (6 YPR) and 544.3 total! Florida broke open a 17-17 tie at Auburn with 17 unanswered points and held on for a 44-39 win. Jon Sumrall's team looks scary good, but it's dangerous to count out Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss.

MIAMI OH -3' ( up from -3) UConn - Huskies new HC Jason Candle knows a little bit about Chuck Martin's Redhawks from his time in Toledo, where he went 3-1 SU and ATS against them over the past three years. It's also worth noting that over that same three year period the Rockets under Candle were 7-0 ATS as a road dog. Miami may have trouble getting up off the mat after blowing a 28-7 halftime lead against arch rival Cincinnati in a 35-31 loss. And did I mention that the MAC is 2-11 ATS as chalk vs. non conference opponents? It's Homecoming week in Oxford, but it looks like the wrong team is favored here.

Boise St. -7' WESTERN MICHIGAN - The talking point for Boise this week has been big plays. They're not getting enough of them on offense and giving up too many on defense. I doubt we'll see too many big passing plays from the blue and orange Broncos, because it's not in QB Maddux Madson's DNA. But behind RBs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines they're averaging 258.3 yards a game on the ground (5.9 YPR) and dominating time of possession. WMU SHOULD be 3-0, and as far as I'm concerned they ARE 3-0. This team is pissed off that they got robbed by the Big Ten, and they're also tired of being referred to as the "other Broncos". That emotion could carry them for a while, but I do think Boise will wear them down over the course of the entire game.

New Mexico -11' (down from -12') NEW MEXICO ST. - The Lobos won for me last week with a gritty effort at Oklahoma. But now they're on the road again, facing their arch rival who is off a bye and seeking revenge for back to back losses the last two years. The Aggies gave Florida St. fits in a 34-17 Week Zero loss in Tallahassee and shouldn't be taken lightly here.

Houston -17' (down from -19') GEORGIA SOUTHERN - The Cougars did their damndest to upend Texas Tech last week, and outgained the Red Raiders 458 yards to 425, but failed on a two point conversion following an 88 yard TD drive in their 28-26 loss in Lubbock. They'll have to put that loss behind them in a hurry because the Eagles under Clay Helton aren't an easy out in Statesboro, going 17-7 SU and 12-6-2 ATS on their home turf, including 3-1 ATS as a double digit dog. Georgia Southern is off two tough road losses at Clemson and Jax St. but are a live dog here.

AUBURN -9' (up from -8') Vanderbilt - I might have been crying in my beer over my losses last week, but at least I wasn't on the losing end of that NC State-Vanderbilt shit show. Unbelievable finish in that one. I'm not really all that impressed with either Vandy OR Auburn, but the Commodores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten as a road dog.

More later.

I am about to look at the Indiana line and if I see under -21, I am on it

CIGNETTI I believe is so detailed in the film room and with practice, that he would have learned everything from Chiles throwing about 250 yds on his secondary last year and Cignetti knows that he has to give his team a 'challenge' and my guess is, he is demanding his defense to hold him to under 175 yds .....could be a tough task vs one of the most creative OCs in the history of the game in Chip Kelly BUT....that is what turns Cignetti's and his player's crank .....stacking the odds in their favor

Last year, they slaughtered the #9 team and held them to 10 pts....my guess is, Cignetti wants as locker room targets >  NW to get under 14 and Under 175 yds from Chiles. For the first time in a while, NW defense is below avg unless they prove they are not ...stats are not good

Indiana will score 38 or more > NW 14 or less.... I am going to look at the Friday line now 

GL bro...appreciate your input/writeups 

GL  on your plays mah man @Boisestateand8

I got Northwestern +21.5, -125, HRB. Friday night this game smells a little funny, hmm...

@Last2thirst - Indy breezed through the non-con part of their schedule, but I wanna see how they look now that conference play has started. I was leaning Northwestern tonight, but you can go broke betting against Cignetti. 

@Macwestie1  BOL this week brother! 

@mrusso I THINK you're on the right side. Time will tell. BOL! 

Anyone watching the NW/Indiana game 5-0 wtf! It’s like watching a Hockey  game 

Update on the BSU-WMU game. It sounds like number two RB Sire Gaines may be a no go tomorrow. He limped off the field in last week's game vs. South Dakota. 

And now......Saturday evening games

WEST VIRGINIA -2 (flipped from +2') Oklahoma St. - I'm not a totals guy, but it's hard to see this game not turning into a track meet. The Cowboys lead the Big 12 averaging 528 yards a game on offense, and in their signature win over Oregon they shredded the Ducks' defense for 554 yards and 39 points. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers stunned Virginia last week for 38 points and 437 total yards, including 247 on the ground. They're leading the conference with 281.3 rushing yards a game. This should be an entertaining game to watch. Last team with the ball wins.

LSU -8' (up from -3!!!) Texas A&M - Desperation time for both of these teams, as neither wants a second loss this early in the season. Last week I pointed out how phony the Aggies' 48-20 win over Arizona St. was, so I wasn't totally shocked that they laid an egg at home vs. Kentucky last week, losing 31-21. That loss explains the big jump in the line and creates some value here. The Bayou Bengals are off that emotional loss at Ole Miss. I'm not in love with either QB in this game, but I'm leaning slightly towards A&M.

Oregon -3' (down from -5') USC - I'm not sure what the Ducks have done to deserve to be favored here on the road. I was at the Boise St. game in Eugene and I couldn't believe how undisciplined they were playing at home. They racked up ten penalties, including two for unsportsmanlike conduct and two or three false starts. The next week in Stillwater they were outgained 554 yards to 281, and if not for a 96 yard pick six the game wouldn't have been close. As for the Trojans, a lot has been said about their defense and none of it good. But against San Jose St. they were up 35-3 before calling off the dogs and wound up playing eleventeen true freshmen! The next week they played their best game of the season, a 39-0 shutout of Fresno St. Against Louisiana I got the sense they were bored as they slept walked their way to a 49-30 win. Last week they beat Rutgers 42-35, clearly looking ahead to this game, and they just don't travel well outside of Cali. QB Jordan Maiava is 11-1 on 12 career starts in the Coliseum with 32 TD passes and just six interceptions. Contrary to popular opinions, I kinda like the home dog here.

MISSISSIPPI ST. -5' (up from -1') Missouri - The Bulldogs rallied from a 23-14 halftime deficit with 24 unanswered points in an impressive 41-31 win at South Carolina to remain unbeaten. Can they keep it rolling vs. a Mizzou team that's won the last two meetings by scores of 39-20 and 49-27 the last two seasons? The Tigers are also unbeaten with a dominant 38-21 win at Kansas two weeks ago. I'm not sure just how good Missy St. is but they beat me last week so I'm staying away from this one.

ARKANSAS -7 (down from -8') Tulsa - If Golden Hurricane starting QB Baylor Hayes was playing I might be on Tulsa here, but this is the best chance for a win that the Razorbacks will see all season.

UMass -4' (down from -6) SACRAMENTO ST. - Can the Minutemen actually start out 4-0? It's possible IF they can overcome a 2900 mile road trip and a late start time. Only the morbidly curious will watch this tragedy.

That's it for this week. BOL peeps! 

Definitely a lot of hitting going on. These kids are gonna be sore tomorrow. 

Texas is now up to -5' over the Vols. Hmmm

Doesn't look like Kewan Lacy will play for Ole Miss today. 

Should've went with my lean on Northwestern last night. The Wildcats look good, and open up their brand new stadium next week vs. Penn St. on Homecoming. Last year they shocked the Nittany Lions as a three TD dog, which led to James Franklin's dismissal. Should be an electric atmosphere in Evanston!

Bol today Boisestateand8...

@fer44

 You too brother! 

Looks like I capped the Va. Tech-BC and Wake-Louisville games correctly.......so far. Maybe I oughta start playing a few of my leans. 

@mrusso

 Nice call on Northwestern...