Posted:
#51
Raising a little girl is like hitting a 50 team parlay ... EVERYDAY IS PRICELESS
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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NCAA WEEK 13 **** How the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse can save your gambling life****
Posted:
#52
TS DOESNT F*CKING MATTER 
Heres a list of things most people think are important, but arent:
1) Who the "public" is on
2) Trends
3) Stats
4) "Expert" opinions
5) Rankings
6) Injuries
7) Weather
8) Traps or fishy lines (including reverse line movement RLM)
Let me save you some time...the guys that make these lines do this for a living. They know more than you and me. So, dont worry about trends, stats, weather, injuries and rankings....that is ALL incorporated into the line they put out. Assume the line good. If you think a line is fishy or is a trap, its because you havent done your homework or dont know what you're talking about. Trust me, there are no traps...just gamblers playing mind games with themselves....Let me save you some more time, if you are concerned with who "the public" is on you wont get very far.....The reason? Everyone is the public, and everyone can be a sharp. Thats why its so hard to hit above 50%....people miss easy winners trying to "fade" the public and then miss easy winners trying to be "sharp". Each game is its own puzzle....
What do you need to know?
1) Where & when is the game?
2) Who a team just played and who are they going to play next?
3) "Matchups"
4) Trusting your instincts
Ya gotta know in college football location is everything. Road games are tough. Night road games are tougher, especially at certain locations. These are 18-22 year old kids and its hard to get your mind right. Next, teams coming off a big win or loss and/or teams with a huge game on deck have a tendancy to not play their best...this falls into 3 categories 1) letdown 2) lookahead 3) sandwich (combo of 1 & 2) . Matchup involves multiple things, but that includes the coaching and things like the o line vs d line. Instincts are something you should be developing over time. Ya gotta trust what your eyes see and what your gut tells you. Avoid "listening" to the announcers and monday morning chatter....
BINGO! well said TRAIN & GL This week
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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Posted:
#55
Great post Train, I have 3 girls, one 8 and twins, 6. I tapped out after the twins. Friggin Dora the explorer. I've seen em all. The only caveat is that the Pixar movies are adult friendly, most are very funny. Loved Gru and minions, laughed often during the Lego movie and all shrek's.
GL this weekend, and take that mask off, you'll scare your kid. 
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by ad1260:
Great post Train…I like it.
Great post Train…I like it.
Unlike you I read/watch too much SHITT. I need to cut about 80 percent of it out and I think I'd be more successful.
On to tonight sir! What's your play on this Toledo/Bowling Green game?
Tonight, gimme BG +7.5 & U59.5 for some action 
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
Who knew?
a degenerate & a preacher
gamblers are almost trained to believe in conspiracies & traps, it's amazing how many people look at public percentage stuff, etc
those guys almost always end up paying their bookie (or at least owing, haha)
Nah, not a degenerate....just a man with a hobby. Who knew?
a degenerate & a preacher
gamblers are almost trained to believe in conspiracies & traps, it's amazing how many people look at public percentage stuff, etc
those guys almost always end up paying their bookie (or at least owing, haha)
I'm no preacher, just a humble covers servant. 
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Posted:
#65
Train,
Really like your opening thread; completely agree on some of the nonsense on sports channels that's not the actual games. Our house is similar - two boys, age four and two and a baby girl two months. So, between that, 2 hours a day round trip looking at the windshield and my obsession with college football, sleep is very overrated this time of year.
While I'm thinking about it, my apologies to all for very rarely doing a writeup and just posting plays. More wins than losses especially the larger plays will have to speak for itself. I always tell my wife just think if I had the time to completely do this "the right way." A goal for retirement I suppose. It would be great to have 40+ hours a week dedicated to football capping, wouldn't it?
Back to the topic at hand:
4 year old: Blaze & the Monster Machines
2 year old: Team Umizoomi
BOL this week Train. On a few of the same plays.
TD
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Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by Gruhn:
Michigan is a trainwreck with a lame duck coach. I wouldnt take them at a pk. Should be a "good" game, but I gotta take the points. Hell, I dont think Michigan can score 20 points vs any decent squad....so I gotta take the points here....
Hey Train You don't like Michigan -5 in the big house off a bye last shot for bowl eligibility before Ohio St...
16-13 somebody
gruhn
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Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21:
Very, very good and informative post.
Very, very good and informative post.
Love Kansas State also...They've struggled vs running QBs.Trevor Boykin ran for 133 yards & 3 TDs on them last year. They played Auburn tough but their only two losses are to teams with running QBs..WVU doesn't have that. Kansas State will control block & force turnovers to win. 58 is way too high for that total. Especially a frigid 25+ degree night in Morgantown. Holgorsen has also been very conservative w/ his play calls lately. Kansas State & ML UNDER parlay. Add in Raiders in good spot for Chiefs for potential big pay day...parlay king.
I think it's great spot for East Carolina to bounce back vs bad Tulane team. ECU coming off back to back losses on road are gonna wanna come home & blast this pathetic defense. 3 TD win shouldn't be too much to ask. Was on Cincy last week.
Nebraska just got embarrassed badly to Wisconsin, coming home to redeem themselves vs a Minnesota team that just gave it their all in the snow to knock off Ohio State. Going on road this isn't a good spot for them. Especially considering it's a revenge spot where Minn beat them 34-23 at home last year.
Notre Dame & UNC overs are also pretty likely plays with how abysmal those teams have been defensively lately. UNC is giving up 41 a game, while only playing ONE ranked team (Notre Dame). The ACC is trash.
It's tough playing back to back road games in the SEC. Was on Mizzou last week but this is a tough task for them. Tennessee has played excellent at home & I still think Matty Mauk is a little too turnover prone. Mizzou took Tennesee to woodshed 31-3 last year at home. Good spot for Tenn.
Must win game for Ole Miss. Don't think Arkansas is completely there yet. Tough to expect another effort like that put forth vs LSU, shutting them out. This game might go under 20 points. 
Just some thoughts to share.
Love all your thoughts bro....already eyeballing Oakland....
A K St & U58/Oakland ML & U42.5 parlay pays 30-1
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Posted:
#72
I do agree on all of that, except for weather…
I have seen weather effect MANY football games.
Do people read too much into SLIGHT weather shifts? Yes. However, high winds and heavy precipitation do alter game plans, etc…
And I 100% do agree with "it doesn't matter what other people think". If I had my money back from every time I let an "expert" or even some random dope talk me into or out of a bet that I lost… I'd be a lot better off.
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Posted:
#74
why do you like K state?
ok if you compare the common opponents yes you might like K st since they trounced texas who trounced WV but you can't tell me that was the same texas team. First year coach growing pains, I think i'd take Texas if they played again.
The eye test tells me Lockett and Waters can be contained, they'll play a drop back zone and hit people. Love the under tho probably laying off the side but lean WV. HFA is big.
ok if you compare the common opponents yes you might like K st since they trounced texas who trounced WV but you can't tell me that was the same texas team. First year coach growing pains, I think i'd take Texas if they played again.
The eye test tells me Lockett and Waters can be contained, they'll play a drop back zone and hit people. Love the under tho probably laying off the side but lean WV. HFA is big.
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Posted:
#75
WV defensive tackles are really good and will force K state outside which is bad for Waters running and they have corners that can double on Lockett and at least contain him.
K st will play a blanket zone and try and limit red zone scores, really like the under and think WV has more talent overall and playing at home. JMO, good luck
K st will play a blanket zone and try and limit red zone scores, really like the under and think WV has more talent overall and playing at home. JMO, good luck
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