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    All Forums | College Football

    NCAA WEEK 13 **** How the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse can save your gambling life****

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    TRAIN69
    ThaGreek
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    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 5:16 PM ET #76

    Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

    why do you like K state?

    ok if you compare the common opponents yes you might like K st since they trounced texas who trounced WV but you can't tell me that was the same texas team. First year coach growing pains, I think i'd take Texas if they played again.

    The eye test tells me Lockett and Waters can be contained, they'll play a drop back zone and hit people. Love the under tho probably laying off the side but lean WV. HFA is big.


    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir

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    Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

    why do you like K state?

    ok if you compare the common opponents yes you might like K st since they trounced texas who trounced WV but you can't tell me that was the same texas team. First year coach growing pains, I think i'd take Texas if they played again.

    The eye test tells me Lockett and Waters can be contained, they'll play a drop back zone and hit people. Love the under tho probably laying off the side but lean WV. HFA is big.


    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir

     
    ThaGreek
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 5:32 PM ET #77

    I'm with you on this one man. Been enjoying your post's for some time now and agree with a lot you say. Best of luck.


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    I'm with you on this one man. Been enjoying your post's for some time now and agree with a lot you say. Best of luck.


     
    ksuwins
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 6:01 PM ET #78

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir


    I hope so.  But that hasn't happened much this season.  Now that Waters is banged up, I don't expect the run game to get better.  

    I like the Under as well...didn't do anything with it yet, though.  Cats D should be good tonight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir


    I hope so.  But that hasn't happened much this season.  Now that Waters is banged up, I don't expect the run game to get better.  

    I like the Under as well...didn't do anything with it yet, though.  Cats D should be good tonight.
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 6:31 PM ET #79

    Add:

     

    K St/WV U58.5

    Oklahoma -25

    UAB +20

    S Bama +24.5

    Az St -15

    Colorado +32.5

    UNLV/Hawaii U55.5

     

    Noise St and La Tech are both sitting at -12...I'll wait and decide later as neither is gonna gain or lose "value".....

     

    Kst ML & U58.5, UNC ML, Oakland ML & U42.5 parlay 90-1

    Add Texas (cbb) -20.5 900-1

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    Add:

     

    K St/WV U58.5

    Oklahoma -25

    UAB +20

    S Bama +24.5

    Az St -15

    Colorado +32.5

    UNLV/Hawaii U55.5

     

    Noise St and La Tech are both sitting at -12...I'll wait and decide later as neither is gonna gain or lose "value".....

     

    Kst ML & U58.5, UNC ML, Oakland ML & U42.5 parlay 90-1

    Add Texas (cbb) -20.5 900-1

     
    ksuwins
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 6:52 PM ET #80

    CU 32.5....hadn't noticed.  That's a big-azz number. 
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    CU 32.5....hadn't noticed.  That's a big-azz number. 
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 7:14 PM ET #81

    Quote Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

    a good behind the scenes train69 read....i will add that in my personal experience this year in NFL and judging from your work in NCAA so far betting sides is in the long run a .500 crapshoot....have syarted weighting plays on 2 and sometimes 3 game teasers...if necessary taking some juice with 2 teamers over 6 points....anyways i dont know if they are on that voluminous list but i like Yale to beat Harvard saturday....they never score less than 40.....have a good one

    I'll take a gander at the Ivy Bowl

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    Quote Originally Posted by ROVIN56:

    a good behind the scenes train69 read....i will add that in my personal experience this year in NFL and judging from your work in NCAA so far betting sides is in the long run a .500 crapshoot....have syarted weighting plays on 2 and sometimes 3 game teasers...if necessary taking some juice with 2 teamers over 6 points....anyways i dont know if they are on that voluminous list but i like Yale to beat Harvard saturday....they never score less than 40.....have a good one

    I'll take a gander at the Ivy Bowl

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 8:25 PM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:

    Nice,short & sweet to the point.I like to wake up to Mike&Mike,but agree1st take other stuff is just a bunch of bs.I don't see how folks win not watching the games.Its the single most important factor to me.Has to be treated like a fun part time job.There are plenty of other things u can do during games...I got 3 girls 3 & under at home...grrreat.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:

    Nice,short & sweet to the point.I like to wake up to Mike&Mike,but agree1st take other stuff is just a bunch of bs.I don't see how folks win not watching the games.Its the single most important factor to me.Has to be treated like a fun part time job.There are plenty of other things u can do during games...I got 3 girls 3 & under at home...grrreat.

     

     
    Jose_Reyes
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 8:34 PM ET #83

    Good stuff, train.  BOL this week.       
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    Good stuff, train.  BOL this week.       
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 8:42 PM ET #84

    Feelin froggy tonite....

     

    Small add

    Ark St -6 & U58

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    Feelin froggy tonite....

     

    Small add

    Ark St -6 & U58

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 10:35 PM ET #85

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Add:

     

    K St/WV U58.5

    Oklahoma -25

    UAB +20

    S Bama +24.5

    Az St -15

    Colorado +32.5

    UNLV/Hawaii U55.5

     

    Noise St and La Tech are both sitting at -12...I'll wait and decide later as neither is gonna gain or lose "value".....

     

    Kst ML & U58.5, UNC ML, Oakland ML & U42.5 parlay 90-1

    Add Texas (cbb) -20.5 900-1

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Add:

     

    K St/WV U58.5

    Oklahoma -25

    UAB +20

    S Bama +24.5

    Az St -15

    Colorado +32.5

    UNLV/Hawaii U55.5

     

    Noise St and La Tech are both sitting at -12...I'll wait and decide later as neither is gonna gain or lose "value".....

     

    Kst ML & U58.5, UNC ML, Oakland ML & U42.5 parlay 90-1

    Add Texas (cbb) -20.5 900-1

     

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 10:57 PM ET #86

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir

    I was off a little.....
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    For starters, Bill Snyder is at least 10x the coach Holgerson is. Next, the only 2 teams K St lost to, Auburn and TCU, had qbs who could run and run well. Trickett is not that guy. Third, the 4 losses WV has had have come from teams that can pound the rock (Oklahoma, Bama, TCU and Texas)...K St is gonna keep coming at them all night....WV on a 2 game slide now after giving the TCU game away....

    Sure, if Trickett gets time he might have a nice night and of course WV can win this game. Like I said though, its about matchups....in this case, I beleive its more important than location. Snyder and crew will not beat themselves and you can almost guarantee they will be in this til the end.

    Like the under as well as I expect a lot of moving between the 20s and a few bogged down drives....I like K st to win 27-23

     

    bol sir

    I was off a little.....
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2014 - 11:42 PM ET #87

    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg
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    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg
     
    hradekbr
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 12:50 AM ET #88

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg
    OH MAN DUDE SO CLOSE. Saw this around 6 and threw 20 on it for fun. That close to 1800. BOL this weekend buddy. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg
    OH MAN DUDE SO CLOSE. Saw this around 6 and threw 20 on it for fun. That close to 1800. BOL this weekend buddy. 
     
    Urbanwildlife
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:00 AM ET #89

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg


    What a fuking heartbreaker! :(
    SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Miss the 90-1 parlay by a kc fg


    What a fuking heartbreaker! :(
     
    DegenCurtis21
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 3:20 AM ET #90



    Good garbage man a little unlucky on that Raiders under. So sick. I liked the under too. Nailed the Kansas State game up & down.


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    Good garbage man a little unlucky on that Raiders under. So sick. I liked the under too. Nailed the Kansas State game up & down.


     
    Winteriscoming
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 5:56 AM ET #91

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck51:

    Great points. 

    Trappy lines, the public, trends, etc   Just Hogwash. 

    Could not agree, these factors are nonsense and crutches for the clueless.

    As soon as read someone going on about square and sharps and who the public is on and trap lines I know they're lost.

    They're just betting on their own paranoia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck51:

    Great points. 

    Trappy lines, the public, trends, etc   Just Hogwash. 

    Could not agree, these factors are nonsense and crutches for the clueless.

    As soon as read someone going on about square and sharps and who the public is on and trap lines I know they're lost.

    They're just betting on their own paranoia.

     
    warcameagle56
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 10:25 AM ET #92

    I think there are some trends u have to look at like Strasburg pitching vs Braves....
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    I think there are some trends u have to look at like Strasburg pitching vs Braves....
     
    Oktoberfestlax4
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 10:39 AM ET #93

    Train,

    What is your true feel for the Miz vs Vols game tomorrow night? Would love nothing more than to see the Dawgs in the SEC title game so I can make a quick trek over and watch it in person, but  do you think Pinkel will have your boys ready play against an improving Knoxville squad...

    As always 
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    Train,

    What is your true feel for the Miz vs Vols game tomorrow night? Would love nothing more than to see the Dawgs in the SEC title game so I can make a quick trek over and watch it in person, but  do you think Pinkel will have your boys ready play against an improving Knoxville squad...

    As always 
     
    warcameagle56
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 10:44 AM ET #94

    Bro,your money line dog pars motivated me to take a small to play NC ML& Raiders+300...played almost 10-1....saved my Sharks -190 moron play..Had my mind set Tarheels and totally forgot to play them straight...That sux u were that close.....As much as Mizzou brought me the money against Ole Miss&A&M last year I think Tenn has their game of year Sat..Usually Auburn-Ga fans get along,but they have been so darn obnoxious this week it wouldn't hurt my feelings.. .I just think its fate Bama-Ga part 2 in Atl & Tenn has got a great Lil Qb that really didn't come to live until 2nd h Bama.We have 3 more full bird CFB weekends....Im ready to pound them or take a hiatus...
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    Bro,your money line dog pars motivated me to take a small to play NC ML& Raiders+300...played almost 10-1....saved my Sharks -190 moron play..Had my mind set Tarheels and totally forgot to play them straight...That sux u were that close.....As much as Mizzou brought me the money against Ole Miss&A&M last year I think Tenn has their game of year Sat..Usually Auburn-Ga fans get along,but they have been so darn obnoxious this week it wouldn't hurt my feelings.. .I just think its fate Bama-Ga part 2 in Atl & Tenn has got a great Lil Qb that really didn't come to live until 2nd h Bama.We have 3 more full bird CFB weekends....Im ready to pound them or take a hiatus...
     
    URZ262
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 10:54 AM ET #95

    thanks so much Train, I ended up with K St and the under, the under for huge and K st for small on the money line, without your input I would have taken WV ML and broke even

    sick how you all but nailed the score

    once again, thanks for your threads, only 2 losing weeks in college football this season thanks in part to your threads

    keep up the good work
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    thanks so much Train, I ended up with K St and the under, the under for huge and K st for small on the money line, without your input I would have taken WV ML and broke even

    sick how you all but nailed the score

    once again, thanks for your threads, only 2 losing weeks in college football this season thanks in part to your threads

    keep up the good work
     
    ByrdMane612
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 11:13 AM ET #96

    Western Michigan ? Is there any reason why? I see that central michigan has the better team n qb.. This looks like a toss up to me. But I love to hear your take on this game, it will help me make my decision easier sir! Thank you and appreciate the work you put in each week buddy! 
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    Western Michigan ? Is there any reason why? I see that central michigan has the better team n qb.. This looks like a toss up to me. But I love to hear your take on this game, it will help me make my decision easier sir! Thank you and appreciate the work you put in each week buddy! 
     
    cfl_coach
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 11:33 AM ET #97

    He Train, I love your picks and I usually follow you and boom boom to make some money every week.

    Im just wondering thou.. You are usually fading Marshal every week and I wanted to know why??? they cover every week. Thats the one automatic college play I've made this year.. Marshal to cover.

    Anyways Lets go!!!
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    He Train, I love your picks and I usually follow you and boom boom to make some money every week.

    Im just wondering thou.. You are usually fading Marshal every week and I wanted to know why??? they cover every week. Thats the one automatic college play I've made this year.. Marshal to cover.

    Anyways Lets go!!!
     
    LOUSER32
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:45 PM ET #98

    Train
    Any input on tonight's games?
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    Train
    Any input on tonight's games?
     
    URZ262
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 2:52 PM ET #99

    Quote Originally Posted by cfl_coach:

    He Train, I love your picks and I usually follow you and boom boom to make some money every week.

    Im just wondering thou.. You are usually fading Marshal every week and I wanted to know why??? they cover every week. Thats the one automatic college play I've made this year.. Marshal to cover.

    Anyways Lets go!!!


    Haha, I accidentally bet on Marshall early in the season as a 21.5 favorite and the line went down to 20 by game time. They were only up by 7 at half and ended up winning by 30+. They're the best kept secret in college football, rakeem cato will absolutely positively be drafted and possibly in the top 3 rounds, easily among the best 2-3 QBs in the nation and he's got at least one great WR.

    I'm looking forward to betting UDML in their bowl game vs Georgia ;)
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    Quote Originally Posted by cfl_coach:

    He Train, I love your picks and I usually follow you and boom boom to make some money every week.

    Im just wondering thou.. You are usually fading Marshal every week and I wanted to know why??? they cover every week. Thats the one automatic college play I've made this year.. Marshal to cover.

    Anyways Lets go!!!


    Haha, I accidentally bet on Marshall early in the season as a 21.5 favorite and the line went down to 20 by game time. They were only up by 7 at half and ended up winning by 30+. They're the best kept secret in college football, rakeem cato will absolutely positively be drafted and possibly in the top 3 rounds, easily among the best 2-3 QBs in the nation and he's got at least one great WR.

    I'm looking forward to betting UDML in their bowl game vs Georgia ;)
     
     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 4:30 PM ET #100

    Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

    Disagree money line dog players encompass about 75% of those that actually make money gambling. There is no question the books shade the games they expect big action on leaving a sharp side for those smart enough or lucky enough to catch it. Not saying just taking the dog makes one a sharp or that fading a public play just because it's a public play is a good idea but paying attention to possibilities that come from shading popular games has proved for years to give a better advantage overall
    If you havent noticed, i LOVE underdog mls. Books do shade lines, almost always towards the favorite. Why? That team is supposed to win, so its only natural that there will be more bets on that team. In particular, I look for home dogs (college bball is even better), where the line is a little higher than I think it should be, but I am more focused on the ml and parlaying it with other dogs for a huge payout.

    Now, I dont think there is a "sharp" side to picking underdogs. I dont have the numbers, but dogs winning su (in the +100 to +300 range), is probably 20%, give or take. Dogs covering the line is probably withing 2 or 3 % of the .500 range....which takes me back to beleiving "vegas" did its homework and the line is good. Picking your spots on dogs that have bite is a tough task indeed.

     

    bol sir

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

    Disagree money line dog players encompass about 75% of those that actually make money gambling. There is no question the books shade the games they expect big action on leaving a sharp side for those smart enough or lucky enough to catch it. Not saying just taking the dog makes one a sharp or that fading a public play just because it's a public play is a good idea but paying attention to possibilities that come from shading popular games has proved for years to give a better advantage overall
    If you havent noticed, i LOVE underdog mls. Books do shade lines, almost always towards the favorite. Why? That team is supposed to win, so its only natural that there will be more bets on that team. In particular, I look for home dogs (college bball is even better), where the line is a little higher than I think it should be, but I am more focused on the ml and parlaying it with other dogs for a huge payout.

    Now, I dont think there is a "sharp" side to picking underdogs. I dont have the numbers, but dogs winning su (in the +100 to +300 range), is probably 20%, give or take. Dogs covering the line is probably withing 2 or 3 % of the .500 range....which takes me back to beleiving "vegas" did its homework and the line is good. Picking your spots on dogs that have bite is a tough task indeed.

     

    bol sir

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