NCAA MARKETWATCH 10/15-1017

Arkansas @ Florida

NCAA Total:  58

Percentage:  59 % on the Over

Game Capped by Gekko:  61

I’m agreeing with the market here and bought the total early at 55.  The weather seems to be fine and another week under Tebow, look for the playbook to become more flexible.  Arkansas is ranked top 10 in passing offense while holding down the 11^th ranking in scoring offense at 11^th in the country.  Defensively they are 95^th in the country and 102^nd in passing efficiency allowed.  Florida on the other hand is 6^th in total offense and 1^st in scoring defense.  Arkansas has eclipsed this total 4 out of 5 times while the Gators haven’t gotten their yet.  The Razorbacks will be the best offense they’ve seen so far and a couple late touchdowns will eclipse this mark.

GEKKO PLAY:  OVER 55 (up to 60)

Wake Forest @ Clemson

NCAA Total:  48.5

Percentage:  82 % on the Over

Game Capped by Gekko:  42

I’m disagreeing with the market here and bought the total at 48.5. It’s understandable why people would think that this game should fly over the total.  Wake Forest defensively hasn’t held anyone and they are able to put points on the board.  They are 16^th in passing offense while being 64^th in total defense.  They’ve eclipsed this total 3 out of the 6 games and last 3.  However, Clemson defensively is 24^th in pass efficiency defense and 102 in total offense.  WForest hasn’t played a tough schedule so far and Clemson will be a tough opponent at home.  I look for this one to be 24-17 range.  This might be at top market price and I definitely don't see it past 49.5.  You might want to wait but 48.5 looks good to buy.

GEKKO PLAY:  Under 48.5

North Carolina St. @ Boston College

NCAA SIDE:  -2.5

Percentage:  57 % on the Wolfpack

Game Capped by Gekko:  Boston College 24-17

I’m disagreeing with the market here and bought the Eagles at 2.5 and better than the key 3 points.  The market responded immediately and purchased the Wolfpack knocking the spread down to 2 at some places.  The recent movement has seen people buy the Eagles back and push it to three.  The return of O’Brien and the demolishment of BC at Virginia Tech is leading to a bearish market on them. NC State has played the 87^th toughest schedule to date, BC is 34^th toughest.  Weather will be a factor as it will be cold and rainy 49 degrees with 12 mph winds.  Look for the fans at Chestnut Hill enjoy a TD plus victory.

GEKKO PLAY:  Boston College -2.5

Texas Tech @ Nebraska

NCAA SIDE:  -10

Percentage:  52 % on the Corn Huskers

Game Capped by Gekko:  Nebraska 37-23

The biggest line movement so far on the week.  Most scoring systems have the Big Red winning comfortably and I have to agree with them.  Texas Tech hasn’t played a tough schedule 74^th hardest, while Nebraska so far has proved themselves (16^th).  The game will be determined by Nebraska’s pass defense 3^rd in nation vs Tech’s passing offense 2^nd in nation.  Nebraska has the 13^th ranked defense while Tech is in mid 50’s.  Ten points seems to be a lot but at home and with a couple extra days to prepare, the big red get the job done.

GEKKO PLAY:  Nebraska -10