I know that many will tell me that Houston can name the score against NTX, that Houston is very good and North Texas is very bad, that Houston can score 50+, 60+ against North Texas, that Houston will beat the total by themselves, and so on and so on.
But thats just square thinking. If you think that Houston will easily cover against North Texas, then you are definately not alone. At least 90% of people think the same way.
I will not try to predict how many points Houston will score, or what is the score Houston players have on their minds going into this game. I will give you a few very solid reasons to explain why I think that North Texas is the best best so far this season.
1) There is something about Houston as road chalk in first 4 weeks of season as long as not off of their bye week. They are 0-10 ATS in this situation, losing against the spread by about 20 ppg in those 10 games. And they are not only losing against the spread, but they are also losing those games outright. Last season they lost at UCLA in this very same spot, the year before that they lost by 17 at UTEP as 15 pts chalk, and in 2008 they lost as road chalk at Colorado State. One year later they were a 2 TD fave in this same situation at Rice and they won by only 1 pt.
2)To be able to cover as favorite on the road, a team needs to have a defense. Houston is a bad defensive team in last 4 years and so far this season it looks like nothing is going to change. They allowed 34 pts against UCLA who moved the ball at will both passing and rushing. UCLA rushed for 232 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and passed for 322 yards on 20/29, passing for over 11 yards per passing play. Keep in mind that Houston scored a TD off of a UCLA fumble. UCLA also had 10 penalties, many of those very costly. UCLA stil managed to acumulate 554 yards on offense keeping the ball for 34 minutes in that game.
3) North Texas is a bad football team, but when they lose at home, they usually lose in a close game. 9 of their last 12 losses at home were by single digits. In the meantime, 12 of their last 15 road losses were by double digits, mostly by 3 touchdowns or more. So, in conclusion, North Texas is taugher to beat at home, by a large margin. With this being their first game ever in their new ballpark, I expect them to be more agressive, to be more pumped up then ever, and to play hard regardless by how many they trail in that game.
4) North Texas had no offense what so ever against FIU but stil scored 16 pts @ FIU last week. They were opportunistic on defense bringing two fumbles for TDs and forcing a safety. Houston defense is not a good one and North Texas will be able to put up points on the scoreboard offensively. North Texas has a good RB and solid special unit guys and that is exactly what is needed against a team like Houston. Houston will score its share of points but they will not cover this huge line.
NORTH TEXAS +22
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