Midseason Picks: Weeks 4-7

SUMMARY OF PLAYS: 

PLAY #1a/b TCU UNDER 49.5 x1 U and  TCU -17x HALF U

PLAY #2 - Pitt -2.5 x 1.5U

PLAY #3 - DUCKS -24 x HALF U

Play #4 - South Carolina +9 x 2U and UNDER 51.5 X1U

PLAY #5 - Hawkeyes/Buckeyes OVER 44.5 x1U

PLAY #6 - TEASER (7pt) x HALF each/payout 1U> NAVY -2 with OVER 29.5 with Boise OVER 58.5 with:

a. MICHIGAN +9

b. USC-Minny UNDER 59

c. UCONN -7

d. UCONN OV 43

e. Iowa St. -6

f. Arkansas +20.5

HALF UNIT PLAYs

> Air Force +16 with USC/MINNY UNDER 59 with UCONN OV 43 with BOISE OVER 58.5 

> UNDER AF-NAVY 43.5 with USC/MINNY 59 with UCONN OV43 with Boise OVER 58.5

I wish I could talk you down on Navy.  They are just another team vs nobody yet.   AIR F is a nobody too but Air F is laying points in games. 

Navy 3 times a favorite this season this is the 4th. 

Bucknell FBS 

UAB were favorites 2 times vs Alcorn and La. Monroe

Temple.  

Air Force played :

Baylor.

San Jose St.  they played WAZU to a 2 point game.  This team has a long list of recent covers. 

Wyoming.  ok ok not a great team historically but they are hard as nails at home. 

I like points as you know and I love fading (gambling against perception)  this line is based upon perception. 

I am rooting for you 

Air Force is getting beat by rebuilding teams and hammered by strong teams. Navy is a strong team because they are balanced now to pass and run

The new blocking below the waist rule (chop block) can no longer be used and that was the military teams best chance to stop speed before they get going at the line and that can no longer happen so Air Force is having issues adjusting

I totally agree -9 is too high which is why it did not get picked as a SIDE this week....I won 1x Unit last week at -2.5 with them easily

Great cappers like Wahoo jumped on the -9 line and even Army with a similar line

These games tend to be close between them....but lets see what happens here. 

You can see in my ADDITIONAL teasers that I tease UP Air Force as a middie play that I expect 

Thanks for the post and concern Spottie 

Your points and focus are always valid and respected. 

I just don’t like being late to a party and I take risks based upon history and data. 

I see what has been happening just the same as everyone else, but in many cases the lines increase and a flop occurs. 

I don’t get too involved with blocking and football details as much as I should.  I spend most of my time trying to out think or think like a linesmaker. 

I’ve looked silly many a time this season and this is another one of those games. 

I’ve also won a few moneylinez in games that nobody suspected to be true.  Dogs and regression win me more money than favorite betting but I can look so stupid too 

this is a game where I look smart or just plain silly.  It’s a rival does it matter ? We’ll see. 

nothing but best wishes on all your plays.

You and me should do some horse racing betting ....you have the right temperament for it. I don't look for all favorites with those but KNOW how to find a favorite KEY in what situation when you play a horse race parlay called a PICK4 or PICK5.....we could do very well like DoubleUP4Life and I did for quite some time collaborating.

Now that is TOUGH capping/betting but can be lucrative if you are good (way more than football) and no way can you win 50% or better like NCAAF

Horses?  That would take me too much time to learn.  Too many horses involved in one race.  I did hit a trifecta one because I boxed a lot of horses to finish 2nd and 3rd. My top horse I found to be handicapped by one of the program gurus and the early line/program line  was 3/2. I think he closed at 7/2 and that’s why I bet him. Harness racing though in Chicago.  Thing of the past now.  

Dogs: The lessons in life we learn from others.  I met someone who sent out picks.  Learned from him little by little and now I see effective clues.  Then I learn the data language from myself and someone else here and now I have my keys.  

it’s never simple but it works. I will post plays later and will switch up a few things.
 
use data and what is left of my brain 

Casino games are what you see is what you get.  Sports is a few smart guys making up the lines.  Well if sports betting was as random and straight forward as say roulette everyone would win.  The lines maker keeps adding more red numbers to the wheel to make it more difficult to hit black.  I bet red for a better ROI and better opportunity.  I just have to do a better job of avoiding horse dung

Harness horses provide clues along with the driver I find and of course, race flow and tactics influence the result ..... I have been betting harness horses now for 43 years and love the challenge and don't play every card, just 1-2x per week and back off when the capping and race tactics are completely out of whack....and this happens about 2 periods a year. Just like sports capping,  you can read form and getting better vs other horses /post positions etc

Just like in NCAAF, visualization of what could happen is important I find and you base it the same sort of principles. Sifting is the key and favorites only win 3 out of 10 races while the horse with the highest drop in odds % wise tends to offer the best value if the form sifting aligns

@Last2thirst

SUMMARY OF PLAYS /RESULTS:

Straight Sides/Totals

PLAY #1a/b TCU UNDER 49.5 x1 U   and  TCU -17x HALF U  

PLAY #2 - Pitt -2.5 x 1.5U   

PLAY #3 - DUCKS -24 x HALF U

Play #4 - South Carolina +9 x 2U   and UNDER 51.5 X1U  

PLAY #5 - Hawkeyes/Buckeyes OVER 44.5 x1U  

PLAY #6 - TEASER (7pt) x HALF each/payout 1U> NAVY -2   with OVER 29.5  with Boise OVER 58.5  with:

a. MICHIGAN +9   NO

b. USC-Minny UNDER 59  

c. UCONN -7    

d. UCONN OV 43  

e. Iowa St. -6   

f. Arkansas +20.5  

HALF UNIT PLAYs

> Air Force +16  with USC/MINNY UNDER 59 with UCONN OV 43 with BOISE OVER 58.5  

> UNDER AF-NAVY 43.5   with USC/MINNY 59  with UCONN OV43  with Boise OVER 58.5 

This week:

Sides/Totals = 3 - 4 (-0.5 Units)

Exotics (Teasers) = +$600 (makes up for -$440 last week)

HALFWAY THROUGH THE SEASON......

Must Beat a higher level to Move Up:

#21 Nebraska  #22  SMU  #23 Kentucky #24 Illinois #25 Arkansas #26 Pittsburgh  #27 Washington #28 USC  #29 Michigan #30 Rutgers

Next Tier 

Boise, Iowa, VTECH, Texas Tech, Washington St., Louisville, , Vanderbilt, California, James Madison, Memphis,  

Top 50 Material

 Arizona, Navy, UNLV, Arizona St., WVU,  Colorado, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, B.C, Duke 

TOP 4 and 20 Best After WEEK #5: (Note: The Top 4 can only be conference winners for Playoff Seeding)

 1. Texas   (got tough road win)

2. Ohio St

3. Oregon (have a good road win)

4. Alabama

-------------------------------------

5. Georgia

6. Penn St. (good road win )

7. Ole Miss  

8. Tennessee (got tough road win)

9. Iowa State (have a tough road win)

10. Texas AM 

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

11 Notre Dame (have a tough road win)  

12 Clemson 

---------------------On the Edge-------------

13 LSU

14 Oklahoma

15 Utah  

---------------------------------------------

16. Kansas St.

17. Miami  << expecting Miami to Lose  

18. BYU   

19. Indiana

20. Missouri