Midseason Picks: Weeks 4-7

Moving the line their way.... last 16-24 hrs

UCONN -4.5 to -5.5

Kentucky-Ole Miss Total 51.5 to 53

Minnesota -10 to -9 

Navy -2.5 to -3.5

Okie St  -6 to -5

JMadison -19 to -20

Arkansas -4.5 to -3.5

 Georgia St +1 to -3

Notre Dame -5 to -6

Miami Ohio -17 to -18

 CMU Even to -3 

W. Michigan +5.5 to +4.5

ECU -3 to  -4

Georgia-Bama Total 49.5 to 48.5 << shit, I had a busy day and could not look! ....will use in TEASER

Air Force -3 to  -4

Boise  -7 to  -8

Week 5 Plays summary:

Play #1 - Navy -2.5 x 1U   >> Navy @ UAB who has trouble defending the run!

Play #2 - Liberty -3  x 2U

- Salter at QB is just starting to breakout and his RB sidekick Cooley as well.....this does not bode well for an App St. team that has a terrible defense and they lost 48-14 to S. Alabama who can defend the run like Liberty can but not as good vs the pass....Liberty is really strong vs the pass as well so I see an uphill climb for App St. trying to match Liberty scoring regularly

Play #3 - Fresno - UNLV UNDER 52.5 x 1U

-traditionally a high scoring matchup but not this year with both defenses being good and QB play is down from last year.....UNLV can grind and run the ball and play stout defense that bends but does not break...

-UNLV has had 2 weeks to prep for Fresno and they want to break their goose egg of wins in the past 5 yr+

Play #4 - Louisville +5 x 1U and leaning to the UNDER ....may play later

-should be a tight game within one score 

- revenge game for ND but Louisville's balance and speed on their team should travel well

Play #5 - UNDER Ole Miss 51.5 x HALF U and now just bought x HALF U at 53 > last year ended at 41 pts with a 55 Total but Wildcats could move the ball better vs stiff competition. Not this as much and we know their defense is stout 

-Ole Miss with a stout offense and great defense...and Kentucky proving to be stout on defense against teams that can move the ball so I see a low total for Kentucky (Under 15 pts likely) and a score total of likely not more than 35-38 .....this number is close to where it should be but KY might be much lower if Vandagrif can't convert 3rd downs on the road

38-13 score at worst ?

Might drop in a couple more....some lines/totals I see moving too high or low perhaps:

VTECH @ Miami

BYU @ Baylor

Ball St @ JMad ...also, is 57.5 too low? If they can put up 70 on UNC, they should put up 45-50 on Ball St. minimum

Col @ UCF .... you have to think that Shadeur and co believe they can move the ball up and down the field and not be buried by 3 scores or more and back door this

Miss St @ Texas.... are State that bad?? Like a mid level or lower MAC team?

Illinois @ Penn St << their defense is not a stopper like past years ....Bowling Green got over 20 on them!!

Colorado will win I am betting on it lol. 

I have made my move on Georgia-Alabama.....there will be run run run run ...plays so I am taking the UNDER on every parlay.....and if I lose, not too concerned. I have thought it through correctly and feel that a side cannot be comfortably and logically selected in this one, although I believe ALABAMA teased to +9 is absolute gold and just may do some teasers with that in mind. Yes, Georgia wants revenge but their inability to stop the run the past season will likely rear its head late in the game if Alabama stays with their run game using Milroe selectively to assist their plan but NOT exclusively

Will do a couple parlays with Buffaloes + pts and ML based on your angle

@Last2thirst

 Have a great week 

Thanks Spottie 

TEASER TIME: - +7 PTS  $20 each payback $40 profit >> went 14-4 last week on these

KEYS > Georgia +6 with Georgia Under 56.5 with BYU-Baylor Under 54 with:

(revenge/better QB)      (Both defenses have strength vs.)  (No Rourke this year + good defense for Ohio)

1. VTECH +24.5

2. Rutgers +5.5  $40 play

3. Oklahoma +8

4. Colorado +21

5. Fresno +9.5  $40 play

6. BYU +10

7. Ole Miss Under 60

8. Nebraska -3

9. JMAD Over 50

10. Sam H +16.5

11. Louisville +14

12. Miss St +45.5

13. Ohio Under 54

14. Wyoming +11

$320 in TEASERS 

Who Beat Who Tracker in Top 65 (SP+ Ranks): 

                 Ten Highest Ranked Wins:

N. Illinois beat Notre Dame (10 SP+)

Texas beat Michigan (12 SP+)

BYU beat Kansas St. (14 SP+) beat SMU (38 SP+)

Tennessee beat Oklahoma (15 SP+)  NC State (51 SP+)

Michigan beat USC (17 SP+) and beat Fresno

USC  beat  LSU (18 SP+)

Utah beat Okie St (19 SP+) beat Baylor (44 SP+)

Notre Dame beat Texas AM (20 SP+)

Georgia beat Clemson (21 SP+) and Kentucky (31 SP+)

Arkansas beat Auburn (22 SP+)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

California beat Auburn (22 SP+)

Iowa St beat Iowa   (23 SP+)

UNLV beat Nebraska (24 SP+)  beat Kansas  (30 SP+)

Washington St beat Washington (25 SP+)  and Texas Tech (55 SP+)

Illinois beat Kansas (25 SP+)

SMU beat TCU (27 SP+)

UCF beat TCU (27 SP+)

Oklahoma St beat Arkansas (28 SP+)

James Mad. beat N.Carolina (29 SP+)

WVU beat Kansas (30 SP+)

-------------------------------------------------------

WHO BEAT WHO?

South Carolina beat Kentucky (31 SP+)

Iowa beat Minnesota (32 SP+)

North Carolina beat Minnesota (32 SP+)

Georgia Tech beat FSU (34 SP+)

Memphis beat FSU (34 SP+)

Rutgers beat Virginia Tech (35 SP+)

Vanderbilt beat Virginia Tech (35 SP+)

Miami beat Florida (36 SP+)

Texas AM beat Florida (36 SP+)

Navy beat Memphis  (37 SP+)

LSU beat South Carolina (39 SP+) and beat UCLA

Florida St beat California (42 SP+)

Colorado beat Baylor (44 SP+)

Kansas St beat Arizona (45 SP+) and Tulane

Oregon beat Boise (47 SP+) and Oregon St 

Syracuse beat GTech  (49 SP+)

Alabama beat Wisconsin (50 SP+)

Clemson beat NC State (51 SP+) and  beat App St.

Penn St beat WVU (54 SP+)

Pittsburgh beat WVU (54 SP+) and Cincy (63 SP+)

Missouri beat Boston Col (57 SP+) and beat Vanderbilt

Texas Tech beat Arizona St (59 SP+)

Tulane beat Louisiana (60 SP+)

W. Kentucky beat Toledo (62 SP+)

Stanford beat Syracuse (64 SP+)

Parlay: 1 Unit >> UNDER BYU 68.5 in game with UNDER BAMA 49.5 with Over Boise 65 > pays almost 3 to 1

My TEASERs are in trouble and I cannot see this continuing in the 2ND HALF

No idea where this came from ....Baylor not wishing to play Dee and a BYU team exploding on offense

I have Baylor as well and I made a mistake playing a favorite after a tough loss.  Take Baylor when they are a dog and no one loves then.  

Also fade BYU as a favorite and they are trusted.  I don’t trust them at all. 

im going to go look at BYUs schedule now. 

Looks like BYU will be dogs or small favorites in the next 4 games. 

next 2 are home against :

AZ and Ok St

then 2 away games :

@C. Fla

@ Utah 

I was on the total and saw this as a pride game which usually means a grinding game ....both are middle tier teams fighting for a bowl. 

At least I have a shot with my parlay

I was going to go with OHIO-AKRON because the MAC tends to have a lot of running and should have because, both had a total of 47. Call it a brain fart

@Last2thirst

Some observations:

- preseason prognostications are bunk when teams are losing a lot of players to DRAFT and transfers are upsetting the balance of power

- Kirby Smart has issues with entitlement >>> see Carson Beck .....and there is going to be a shitstorm over the lack of focus with this team. They look small and lack preparation. Alabama looks like a pro team and Georgia is NOT HUNGRY because of the entitlement that is seeping into that team 

- I really like Kirby but Carson Beck type players who was a backup to Stetson should not be getting $4 million NIL >> he looks clueless and un-athletic (good arm but no compete in him)

- Ole Miss /Georgia over rated and Kentucky is under rated.......the VOLS and BAMA are the biggest players who also very fast 

- would love to see a Georgia - Clemson rematch next week and probably Clemson wins this time 

- nice to see the comeback by the Sooners today.... again, another team that looked at their 'young prodigy' QB who bought his hype too much like Beck and did the right thing and put in a talented second string who earned his new starting role

-Penn St might be over rated and holding back this kid Allar who early in the season, I liked what they were doing with him

- Michigan just balls!

-just watched Beck run and looked scared.....straddled the first down line but would not stick his nose out (can you tell he bugs me? I wonder if he is stoned?)

-CYCLONES quietly playing perfect football but want to see them play a top 15 team to know how good they are

- check out BYU's resume of wins....they are legit ....and doing it on the road

- Colorado beating two good teams in a row and 4-1 .....glad to see the racist talk die down in threads (or maybe not, going to look)

WE LEARNED A LOT THIS WEEK......

Must Beat a higher level to Move Up:

#21 Kansas St.  #22 Iowa #23 BYU #24 South Carolina #25 Illinois

How Good Are They Really?

#26 Indiana #27 Nebraska #28 Kentucky #29 Boise #30 Arkansas

Next Tier 

Pittsburgh, Arizona, Louisville, SMU, James Madison, Oklahoma St.

Top 50 Material:

VTECH, TCU, Washington St. Washington,Texas Tech, Memphis, Colorado, Tulane, Navy, UCF, Duke + some others

TOP 12 and 20 Best After WEEK #5: 

Will start to align my TOP 4 with Conferences in mind soon

1. Alabama 

2. Texas   (got tough road win)

3. Tennessee (got tough road win)

4. Ohio St

-------------------would be in playoff if now------------------

5. Oregon (have a good road win)

6. Georgia  

7. Penn St. (good road win )  

8. Miami  (good road win vs SEC team)

9. Michigan 

10. USC  (got a tough win on the road/almost a second)

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

To gain Playoff, they will have to win a tough match on the road

11 Iowa State (have a tough road win)  

12 Notre Dame (have a tough road win) 

---------------------On the Edge-------------

13 LSU

14 Missouri

15 Texas AM

--------------need to beat better above and go on run-------

16. Oklahoma  (have a tough road win)

17. Clemson

18. Ole Miss  (Who have they beat?? Over rated? Kiffin is a poor motivator)   

19. Utah   (have a tough road win)

20. Rutgers

Week 5 Results =  2 - 2 Sides /Totals (EVEN) << its really too bad Liberty was cancelled because I had $250 on it with a nice line

- lost on TEASERS and one parlay (-$440) 

Thoughts on early lines for Thursday-Friday Games: (just waiting for BET365 to open Week 6 lines!)

- Oregon -25.5 > don't think Sparty will travel well and Oregon with 2nd game in a row on the left coast with Buckeyes on deck so I will be taking them to win efficiently at home and likely a blowout with a focused game and week of practice prepping for both Buckeyes and Sparty << only need to watch film of one game last week over and over !

- UNLV -4 /57.5 Total << will be on this game likely on the total but will let the line ferment for a couple days perhaps

- TCU -16.5/49.5 Total >> homie after two roadies and Houston doesn't score much on the road and got skunked by Cincy 35-0 so I see TCU with a similar type of offense - defense....Houston with some offense personnel wonky on the injury list and their QB is not very good 

- Don't see this game being a blowout with Houston good vs pass >> TCU can deploy a run game if they choose so I don't see this being a high scoring game > maybe 41 - 6 or 41 - 7 type of score and if Houston scores more then 34 - 13 at most 

Saturday Oct 5: REALLY LIKE:

Pitt -1.5 and up to -2.5/3 vs UNC on the road 

Missouri @ Tex AM Total 48.5 << strong lean to the UNDER because AM with a tougher schedule and running the ball with success but Tigers play well vs the run.....I see a grinder - strategic game plan for both teams and Tigers like to run more as well.... lean Tex AM -2 due to the fact this is the first roadie for Tigers and AM home crowd noise is extreme

Lines....just opened for me on BET365: - SELECTIVE GAMES only

PLAY #1a/b TCU UNDER 49.5 x1 U and  TCU -17x HALF U

PLAY #2 - Pitt -2.5 x 1.5U

PLAY #3 - DUCKS -24 x HALF U

Play #4 - South Carolina +9 x 2U and UNDER 51.5 X1U

- Sellers likely to play as they sat him out vs Akron when he could have started....now 2 additional weeks and he should be raring to go ....Ashford was ok while in his absence. This team can run, pass and in my opinion >> a bigger/faster and nastier defense than KENTUCKY and their home crowd is insanely loud..... LSU tried to run tempo on SC but their defense was up to the task in the first half

SC beat Kentucky on the road 31-6  .... this line does not make sense so take advantage

- something looks off with Kiffins team OR .....he is gambling himself or big donors and they might come out firing....doesn't matter because this SC team can play and have size/speed and balance

Interesting Total on IOWA - Buckeyes @ 44.5 

- will be playing OVER this when it opens on BET365 >> Iowa excellent vs run but will have 2 prong attack to deal with this week and some excellent receivers which they are surprisingly having some issues vs passing teams

-their games over the past 7-10 yrs have been 20-30 pt totals over this number and I see Ohio St scoring 31-38 pts and Iowa having some success too

Now open >>> PLAY #5 - Hawkeyes/Buckeyes OVER 44.5 x1U

PLAY #6 - TEASER (7pt) x HALF each/payout 1U> NAVY -2 with OVER 29.5 with Boise OVER 58.5 with:

a. MICHIGAN +9

b. USC-Minny UNDER 59

c. UCONN -7

d. UCONN OV 43

e. Iowa St. -6

f. Arkansas +20.5

HALF UNIT PLAYs

> Air Force +16 with USC/MINNY UNDER 59 with UCONN OV 43 with BOISE OVER 58.5 

> UNDER AF-NAVY 43.5 with USC/MINNY 59 with UCONN OV43 with Boise OVER 58.5

I really like the lines this week because most of the homework for the past month or two is done and I can see what Vegas is trying to do with their numbers.......... that said, when I think the numbers are very approachable, bad weeks ensue 

Betting NCAAF can be humbling at the best of times

Who Beat Who Tracker in Top 65 (SP+ Ranks):

----------------------------------Teams only Beating above of Top 30

SMU beat TCU (32 SP+) beat Florida St (48 SP+)

UCF beat TCU (32 SP+)

Oklahoma St beat Arkansas (34 SP+)

Kansas St beat Arizona (35 SP+) beat Okie St (39 SP+) and Tulane

Oregon beat Boise (37 SP+) beat Oregon St (63 SP+) 

Colorado beat UCF  (38 SP+)

Utah beat Okie St (39 SP+) beat Baylor (56 SP+)

Florida St beat California (40 SP+)

James Mad. beat N.Carolina (41 SP+)

Duke  beat N.Carolina  (41 SP+)

Vanderbilt beat Virginia Tech (43 SP+)

Illinois beat Kansas (45 SP+)

WVU beat Kansas (45 SP+)

TCU  beat Kansas (45 SP+)

Indiana beat Maryland (46 SP+)

Iowa beat Minnesota (47 SP+)

North Carolina beat Minnesota (47 SP+)

Georgia Tech beat FSU (48 SP+)

Memphis beat FSU (48 SP+)

Stanford beat Syracuse (49 SP+)

Penn St  beat Illinois (50 SP+) beat WVU (58 SP+)

Boise  beat Washington St (51 SP+)

Syracuse beat GTech  (52 SP+)

Pittsburgh beat Cincy (53 SP+) beat WVU (58 SP+)

Texas Tech beat Cincy (53 SP+) beat Arizona St

 Pittsburgh beat Cincy (53 SP+) beat WVU (58 SP+) 

Missouri beat Boston Col (55 SP+) and beat Vanderbilt

Colorado beat Baylor (56 SP+)

Clemson beat NC State (61 SP+)

 Tulane beat Louisiana (62 SP+)

Navy beat Memphis  (64 SP+)

----------------------------Beats vs Ranked 66 - 85 only---------

W. Kentucky beat Toledo 

Ohio St. beat Michigan St.

Sam Houston beat Texas St.

Louisiana beat Wake Forest 

Who Beat Who Tracker in Top 65 (SP+ Ranks):  BEATS of Top 30 teams

                 Ten Highest Ranked Wins: - UPDATED to Week #5

Kentucky beat Ole Miss  (4 SP+)

Alabama beat Georgia (7 SP+) beat Wisconsin 

N. Illinois beat Notre Dame (10 SP+)

USC  beat  LSU    (12 SP+) beat Wisconsin

Georgia beat Clemson (13 SP+) and Kentucky (24 SP+)

Notre Dame beat Louisville (14 SP+) Texas AM (19 SP+)

Texas beat Michigan (15 SP+)

BYU beat Kansas St. (16 SP+) beat SMU (26 SP+) beat Baylor (56 SP+)

Tennessee beat Oklahoma (18 SP+)  NC State (61 SP+)

Arkansas beat Auburn (20 SP+)

California beat Auburn (20 SP+)

Oklahoma beat Auburn (20 SP+)

-------------------------------------------Beat a Top 30 team

Iowa St beat Iowa   (21 SP+)

Michigan beat USC (22 SP+) beat Minnesota (47 SP+) and beat Fresno

Rutgers beat Washington (23 SP+) beat Virginia Tech (43 SP+)

Washington St beat Washington (23 SP+)  and Texas Tech (59 SP+)

South Carolina beat Kentucky (24 SP+)

Arizona beat Utah  (25 SP+)

LSU beat South Carolina (27 SP+) and beat UCLA

UNLV beat Nebraska (28 SP+)  beat Kansas  (45 SP+) beat Fresno

Miami beat Florida (30 SP+) beat V. Tech  (43 SP+)

Texas AM beat Florida (30 SP+) beat Arkansas (34 SP+)