Midseason Picks: Weeks 4-7

I think many are going to be tempted to take Oklahoma and  the points, personally I disagree   so I am waiting to see if this drops to 6  

I have watched Vols play 2x and my mouth dropped ....I am prepared to call them #1 if they prove it vs Bama and Georgia

But first biggie game, you have to think both sides are screwed down and ready to keep things tight. That said, I have them winning on the TEASER and going to bet ingame, likely 2nd half too

GL Rum 

Ole Miss has a D this year....

Dart has come a long way as well..

@Last2thirst

 I like your Rutgers play for the same reasons, even if the line's dropped to +3'.

@spottie2935

 Tennessee-NC State was a actually a neutral site game played in Charlotte.  The Vols look scary good, but Boomer will be their toughest test to date, and 2-14 ATS is pretty tough to argue against.

Rebs are one of my favorite schools so I am dying to watch them.... if they do have a defense....honestly, this year's SEC is going to be wild because I think there are 4 very strong teams and 6 that would be strong in most years but are 5th-10th best

-TEXAS, TENN, BAMA, OLE MISS

Next level until proven otherwise:

MIZZOU, LSU, TEXAM, SOONERS, SOUTH CAROLINA

Third tier (some good teams too)

Boise , if we get some guys putting some heads together early, I bet many of us can find the right highway to take navigating some of these lines each week.... I stick to ESPN+ ...plus my eyetest ....plus rankings of individual units such as D-line, Run game etc> watch a lot of games 

I know Spottie likes points/his past numbers and tendencies in situations....I lean to Totals and undervalued 2 score plays usually.....but not always.... a play has to HIT ME BETWEEN THE EYES when I scope the data and compare

WEEK 4 - 10 is go time to press.... but not for me just yet as I want this week also to observe some things and trying TEASERS only because they always seem to get me! And so, for one week, I want to focus on them by finding 2-3 plays that I know I like if I were taking them for sides and then adding the +7 extra in a 4 way TEASED PARLAY which is appealing and challenging for me

BOL this week 

What day is it, Friday?????  

Lets goooo!!!

I am now convinced.....Oklahoma will have trouble hanging with Vols. Look at the OFFENSIVE STATS for Sooners:

Offense
Season Stats              Rank
Total Yards 325.3        107
Passing Yards 166.3    113
Rushing Yards 159.0    66
Points Scored 33.7      48
Turnovers 2                33

VOLS Defense: - they are big and fast/swarm to the ball

Defense
Season Stats             Rank
Total Yards 160.7         1
Passing Yards 105.0     4
Rushing Yards 55.7      3
Points Scored 4.3        2
Takeaway 1               98

Oh, Vols beat NC State 52 - 10 with McCall at QB who could not move the ball worth shit....

And Arnold, QB for Sooners has produced these stats within their offense and I expect, he will have to crank it up in this game to match scores that come from the VOLS

J. Arnold       62.8%    484yds << over 3 games (7 TD/2 INT)

But let's say, they DO crank that offense up with crafty play calls and running game/QB play mix that gets the audience on their feet......do you think it can happen ALL GAME? Versus this offense of the Vols who I argue, have had only a marginally less tougher competition:

Offense
Season Stats             Rank
Total Yards 639.3         2
Passing Yards 303.0    22
Rushing Yards 336.3    3
Points Scored 63.7       1
Turnovers 3               58

Really like my TEASER lineup this week. Its been hard for me to fall in love with any line this week but if I would put some cash down on a side and still might, is when I see Tennessee getting -6.5 in my BET365 

The other TOTAL that is intriguing is Iowa-Minnesota at 35.5. Both teams are stacked with defense but Iowa giving up more pts this year because their offense is more efficient and they know they can trade scores it seems. That said, Fleck is a terrible decision maker and I suspect he is going to lean on his defense to keep it close and suspect they will. This might be the FG trading type of game with only 2-3 TDs = 14-21 pts via the TD and then 5-6 FGs at most >>> a max of both would put the total at 39

A min of TDs = 14 and a max of FGs(6) = 32 = UNDER

A max of TDs = 21 and a min of FGs(4-5) = 12-15 = right around the number

A min of TDs and FGs would put this number at = 26-29 final score...and I doubt the middle of the field is where this game will end up.... Johnson runs the ball extremely well for Iowa and Minny's FCS QB is proven a good short passer and medium passer using the middle of the field....

TEASER could use this one and I think I will..... and the OVER is probably good or UNDER 42.5 so you can tease down to 28.5 so a 17-14 or 17-13 score....even 16- 13 is possible but not too concerned that one could hit

Extra teasers: - Quarter U each ($30) >> they pay just over HALF U profit

Iowa OVER 28.5 with KANSAS OVER 48.5 with Coastal C +10.5 with Florida UNDER 65

Iowa UNDER 42.5 with KANSAS OVER 48.5 with Coastal C +10.5 with Florida UNDER 65

Iowa OVER 28.5 with WVU +6 with Indiana Over 43 with Clemson -10.5

Iowa UNDER 42.5 with WVU +6 with  Indiana Over 43 with Clemson -10.5

Will play some more as spreads make it comfortable....also playing in game. I have other TEASERS deeper in this thread

Play #1 - UL Monroe +43.5 x 1U

-run run run and clock gets chewed up

- good offense expect very little passing

- I don't expect the coach for ULM to lean on the QBs to pass, who both have shown the ability to run 

- Ewers may not play and if he does, Sark has said Arch should get more than before which means at least 2 Qs and maybe 2.5-3 Qs

- I can see ULM score 7-14 pts 

- I can see Texas scoring on long controlled drives as this defense for ULM is decent and they may want to work in some different offensive sets that involve balance and then switch it up later in SEC when Ewers is needed 

- I expect Texas to score 49-52 at most so I like my chances  

NOTE: UTSA has a piss poor secondary and could not run the ball....that gave Texas more drives so I don't expect the clock to be stopped as much in this game as Texas works on some things

Got -44 ULM when I went to play..... looking at Tennessee now -6.5 or -6 and perhaps later B.C. -5 .... They have fun playing football and move the chains efficiently and Sparty is not good on the road I find >> too many weapons for B.C. offense  

Will confirm later....teasers are looking pretty good too, with my biggest concern was WVU-KANSAS and they have scored only 21 pts at half and I have a cushion of 43 pts in the 2nd half 

Plays that became Inclinations instead to do TEASERS .... 2 - 1 today assuming Rutgers doesn't collapse their lead....would have only got UNDER Kentucky wrong

Play #2 - Tennessee -6  x 2U <<< there it is!! I waited for it. I will also be playing the TOTAL in-game and will post my position when I see a good spot and will call it an exotic bet in my year totals

-understand something.....Heupel circled this game for his team in preparation...I guarantee it since he coached there successfully 2x and he would be in competition with Venables in team history + recruiting the same player pool in their region. I guarantee the Vols players will be jacked ....but I expect Sooners players to be ready and keep it close. Come 2nd half, I expect the game to end by a converted TD - 2 score win

Just bet UNDER 49.5 in Tennessee GAME x2 UNITS in-game  > goes into exotics category

Just took Wyoming +600 ML and +300 @+2 to back up my plays..... $30 + $60 and will record these in exotics category

I am not concerned about TENN VOLS losing their game

TEASER RESULTS: Week #4 

TEASER Keys: - 7 pt  > N.Texas -2   with WVU/Kansas Under 64.5  with Tennessee win 

HALF U each > pay +1U per winner

1. Kentucky Under 49.5   +1U

2. Rutgers +12   +1U

3. Vandy +28    +1U

4. Illinois +16    +1U

5. USC +1.5     -0.5U

6. Toledo +6     +1U

7. Ole Miss Over 59     +1U

8. Baylor/Colorado Under 61    << WOW last play bomb throw by Shadeur and I lose ...holy shit

Made + 5 U on Teasers in this lot = +$660  ... got it back after last week 

Extra teasers: - Quarter U each ($30) >> they pay just over HALF U profit

Iowa OVER 28.5 with KANSAS OVER 48.5 with Coastal C +10.5 with Florida UNDER 65   

Iowa UNDER 42.5 with KANSAS OVER 48.5 with Coastal C +10.5 with Florida UNDER 65  

Iowa OVER 28.5 with WVU +6 with Indiana Over 43 with Clemson -10.5    

Iowa UNDER 42.5 with WVU +6 with  Indiana Over 43 with Clemson -10.5  

LOST $30 on this lot of TEASERS

+$570 for TEASERS on the day ....will report sides and overall after

TOP 12 and 30 Best After WEEK #4: - TOP 4 = No Change

 1. Texas   (got tough road win)

2. Tennessee (got tough road win)

3. Georgia

4. Alabama 

----------------------------------------------

5. Ole Miss 

6. Oregon (have a good road win)  

7. Ohio St  

8. Miami  (good road win vs SEC team)

9. Penn St. (good road win )

10. Utah (got tough road win)

 --------------------In the Hunt-------------

To gain Playoff, they will have to win a tough match on the road

11  Michigan (don't have the great QB yet /tough win)

12  USC  (got a tough win on the road/almost a second)

13  Iowa State (have a tough road win)

14  Missouri 

15  LSU << if Kansas St. comes back and wins, place here

---------------better clean up to move up --------

16. Notre Dame (have a tough road win)

17. Texas AM 

18. Oklahoma  

19. Clemson

20. Illinois

Must Beat a higher level to Move Up:

 Kansas State (if they lose), South Carolina, Louisville, Nebraska, Iowa, Oklahoma St.

 How Good Are They Really?

  Pittsburgh, Arkansas, Rutgers, Indiana, B.College, BYU

nice week

Congrats 

Week 4 SIDES/TOTALS/EXOTIC BETS:

Play #1 - UL Monroe +44 x 1U  

Play #2 - Tennessee -6  x 2U  

-------------------------------------------

Teasers = +$570

In game = +$220 >>  UNDER 49.5 in Tennessee GAME x2 UNITS in-game

Backup Bets = -$90 >>  Wyoming +600 ML and +300 @+2 to back up my plays..... $30 + $60

--------------------------------------------

Total Gain Week 4 exotics = +$700

---------------------- SEASON TOTALS---------------------------

OVERALL after Week 4: Record = 6 - 7  (E) 

Exotics:

Parlay 0 - 1 (- $240)

Teaser =  +$70

In-game = +$220 

Total Gain =  +$50 ... dug myself out this week

LOOKING FORWARD TO WEEK #5 !!

Based on how Kansas State is playing tonight late, I have revamped my Bottom Team Rankings posted 30 min ago:

Thanks Spottie 

I focused on getting out of a hole and splashing a lot of plays was not the answer this week but focusing on any advantage I could get from research, previous observations and the TEASER option. Back to straight bets and occasional TEASERs or other exotics

REVAMP:

Must Beat a higher level to Move Up:

#21 Iowa  #22 South Carolina #23 Louisville #24 Pittsburgh #25 Nebraska, 

How Good Are They Really?

#26 Arkansas #27 Rutgers #28 Indiana #29 B.College #30 BYU

Next Tier 

Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Boise, Washington St., Kentucky

Top 50 Material:

Maryland, Washington, VTECH, SMU, UCF, Arizona, James Madison, Memphis, Tulane, Fresno, UNLV + some others

Focusing on Georgia - Bama as my first play.....lines should be out soon for all others 

- upon glancing and thinking about the matchup, I like the OVER 49.5 but no decision yet and I may want to consider TAKING THE UNDER instead

- revenge game for Georgia and Carson Beck who came back for this and a shot at a title ... revenge tends not to work well so early in the season I find because both are undefeated and their edges have not been dulled, which tends to sharpen you for the big games....and that is maybe where Georgia may come out firing given what happened last week in Kentucky >> practice focus and motivation would be very high and Kirby has very hard practices ..... DeBoer, not sure what his rep is

- Etienne helps their balance 

- both teams have excellent kickers

- questions about Georgia's defense still persist but so far, they have played well as a unit but step up now vs Alabama who have a higher rated offense so far, BUT they are weak vs the run

TO GO OVER: > need 5 Tds converted / 5 FGs << Saturday night game where I expect both teams to try to establish the run and play conservative in the first half

LEAN UNDER 49.5  

Navy @ UAB who has trouble defending the run!

Play #1 - Navy -2.5 x 1U

Strong Leans and further plays:

Ball St @ JMad Over ...fully expect Ball St to put up pts over 20 and JMAD to score over 30 (NO Play yet)

GSouth @ G-State +1 << excellent TEASER Key at home and more balanced team vs G.South

-traditionally, this game has gone OVER 70 pts the last 2 seasons and with these defenses, I see something similarly (going OVER 60) ....will likely become a play but going to watch lines for a bit

Play #2 - Liberty -3  x 2U

- Salter at QB is just starting to breakout and his RB sidekick Cooley as well.....this does not bode well for an App St. team that has a terrible defense and they lost 48-14 to S. Alabama who can defend the run like Liberty can but not as good vs the pass....Liberty is really strong vs the pass as well so I see an uphill climb for App St. trying to match Liberty scoring regularly

-Strong lean to Arkansas +5.5 - but 2nd roadie for them....mulling this one due to their balance and ability to stop the run and force Reed to throw the ball.... Arkansas' offense will put up points so no concern although TexAm homefield is extremely loud and the defense tends dig in with the crowd

-my heart says TexAm, but my head says take points > excellent teaser candidate to add +7 pts

Play #3 - Fresno - UNLV UNDER 52.5 x 1U

-traditionally a high scoring matchup but not this year with both defenses being good and QB play is down from last year.....UNLV can grind and run the ball and play stout defense that bends but does not break...

-UNLV has had 2 weeks to prep for Fresno and they want to break their goose egg of wins in the past 5 yr+

Strong Lean - Marshall -5.5 > thought they played Buckeyes real well for a half and their balance overall is much better than WMU 

- Lean Sooners -3 @ Auburn but will look into injury report more. I think Wright deserves to be QB for Sooners but you can bet that Jackson Arnold will find himself when Wright falters ....more concerned about defensive injuries to Sooners 

Play #4 - Louisville +5 x 1U and leaning to the UNDER ....may play later

-should be a tight game within one score 

- revenge game for ND but Louisville's balance and speed on their team should travel well

Looks like I am going to play a lot of games this week........

---------------------------games I like capped to 3:30pm----------------

Other lines I want to move/watching:

Kentucky @ Ole Miss  -17.5 .... do I trust Vandagrif or the best Ole Miss defense they have had in a couple decades maybe?

Do I trust each defense more? Yes

Play #5 - UNDER Ole Miss 51.5 x HALF U > last year was 41 pts with a 55 Total but Wildcats could move the ball better vs stiff competition. Not this as much and we know their defense is stout 

Talked myself into this one 

Okie @ Kansas St. +6  .... nice line to tease ! *whichever side you like.... I think KST will be happy to be home but jetlagged ...too many pts for two teams pretty close in ability?

Indiana might be a side I take -6.5 ....if it goes to -7 (teaser side) but still may take it straight....Maryland has dominated with Tua's brother but he is gone.... Terps not good vs pass and Rourke been laser good in decision making and passing proficiency...shit, its up to -7

Texas St @ Sam H +8.5 << with their defense, and home field, teasing to +15.5 would be gold but admittedly, SamH offense does not align well with Texas St defense strengths/ also Texas St with 2 weeks to prepare

Musings only above.....will look at more tomorrow and Tuesday. Have 5 picks in, have to remember its not an all you can eat buffet haha ...

Illinois with back to back tough games..... line seems high +17.5 ??

Old Dom +9 @ Bowling Green < some nice results vs higher level competition but they may be one of those teams that does not play well when a fave....looking into this one closely

You have to think Alabama is pissed off looking at this line +2 when they beat Georgia last year and they have a killer team as good and maybe better..... which leads me to believe again, this distaste will play out on the lines and with a tight ball game leading to an UNDER 

SAB +21 @ LSU << cannot trust them with a big point spread with Kelly at the helm....they have proven this over 2 seasons ....looking at this one 

FSU +5.5 @ SMU? ... you can bet Seminoles will be itching to throw the very same dirt that went into their eyes after 3 games, into the SMU program that has not been held in as high regard as theirs.....looking into this one too. FSU players are breathing better this week which means a focused practice week and desire to win again

OSU -25 @ Sparty? ....they have hammered this club for the past 5 years badly but an inspired Sparty defense and much better offense could make some noise....Chiles has to cut down throwing errors to have a chance

-Buckeyes looked dopey at times last week vs Marshall until they got their run game going ....Sparty is run stop type of team so I am curious of this one

Cougars at Broncos - Total 65 ....get some popcorn, this one will be fun.... might make it a key in a TEASER combo group of plays 

Zona @ Utah -12.5 > REVENGE GAME !! Want to read the room on this one and determine if Rising was kept back for this one on purpose