That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing.
You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
Quote Originally Posted by Ace of Spades:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing.
You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
An onside recover would result in great field position with about 2 mins left. You sound just as smart as that coach looks right now.
And what? You recover the ball at your own 40, then the D is waiting for you to pass on every play. You aren't going to make any 20+ passes, but maybe some under throws.
Why even practice a 2 minute drill then? That's what they would've had, with great positioning. You can come up with whatever scenarios you want in your head but if you're a smart coach and you just watched your QB overthrow everything on the previous 3 downs, you should be able to see that you need to take the points when you can and reset for if you get another chance to win.
I understand your point. However, how likely are you to get inside the 7 yard line again? Even with two mins, you had a much better chance getting to the goal line while the D was playing prevent. Now, even IF you recover an onside kick, they will not be giving up 5-10 yards per play anymore.
Quote Originally Posted by JayDubsJr:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
An onside recover would result in great field position with about 2 mins left. You sound just as smart as that coach looks right now.
And what? You recover the ball at your own 40, then the D is waiting for you to pass on every play. You aren't going to make any 20+ passes, but maybe some under throws.
Why even practice a 2 minute drill then? That's what they would've had, with great positioning. You can come up with whatever scenarios you want in your head but if you're a smart coach and you just watched your QB overthrow everything on the previous 3 downs, you should be able to see that you need to take the points when you can and reset for if you get another chance to win.
I understand your point. However, how likely are you to get inside the 7 yard line again? Even with two mins, you had a much better chance getting to the goal line while the D was playing prevent. Now, even IF you recover an onside kick, they will not be giving up 5-10 yards per play anymore.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing. You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
Your wrong. They always say kick the extra point to keep it a one possession game.
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by Ace of Spades:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing. You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
Your wrong. They always say kick the extra point to keep it a one possession game.
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over.
If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over.
If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing. You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
Your wrong. They always say kick the extra point to keep it a one possession game.
They DID, when coaches who learned from John Madden went with old school thinking. That's why they pay 500k to data scientists to figure out the real statistics.
The reason why keeping it a 1 possession game was common back in the day was
1) There was no kneel-downs
2) Onside kicks were much more commonly recovered
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by Ace of Spades:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
The Difference is that you are down ONE possession or TWO possessions. It gives your team momentum just to know you are one touchdown away. And NO data scientist agrees with you in this situation.
I will bet you $1000 right now that all the analytics support this. You can look at NFL games and see this season nearly all of the teams have gone for the 2pt conversion on the first TD when down 15. Why? Because exactly what other people are arguing. You know where you stand, then you have the chance to kick a FG and go for the onside kick with 2mins left. If not, you go for a 2pt conversion with under a minute left. If you don't get it, then the game is over.
Your wrong. They always say kick the extra point to keep it a one possession game.
They DID, when coaches who learned from John Madden went with old school thinking. That's why they pay 500k to data scientists to figure out the real statistics.
The reason why keeping it a 1 possession game was common back in the day was
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
If you think your going to get two more possessions with 4 minutes left in a football game I give up with you. I still know you and your 500K data dude are wrong.
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
If you think your going to get two more possessions with 4 minutes left in a football game I give up with you. I still know you and your 500K data dude are wrong.
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
If you think your going to get two more possessions with 4 minutes left in a football game I give up with you. I still know you and your 500K data dude are wrong.
Here's a link to the study. You can clearly see that when after one TD you are down 9, you go for two because it gives you nearly double the percentage to draw even.
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
Quote Originally Posted by thehuntman:
Quote Originally Posted by Popo21:
2 Things: 1) The analytics show its better to go for two when you're down 15 on the first TD, so you know where you stand in the rest of the game. If they went for the XP and then missed the 2pt later, it's the same. 2) Why go for the FG when you're inside the 10? If you even recover the onside kick, you still need to move the ball without any TOs. You are 500% more likely to get a TD on a 4th down inside the 10 than you are on a hail mary outside the 40.
I don't agree at all with number one. Kick the extra point then it is a one possession game still.
That's why you are posting on Covers and a data scientist is getting paid 500k to work for NFL teams to figure these things out. I understand your thinking. But, you need to understand that there are 2 possessions. There is no difference if you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD or the 2nd TD. Explain the difference and I'll listen...
Hmmmm you have a better chance to win a game in the 4th quarter only down one possession rather than two possessions. There was 8 minutes left in the game. If it was in the 1st half I would agree or maybe even the 3rd quarter but not half way through the 4th. That miss pretty much ended any chance Nevada had to win the game.
When you leave the 2pt to the last TD, you don't know where you stand. So, if you miss on that conversion, the game is essentially over. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD with 4mins left, you can now strategically plan for the next two possessions. Either way, you need to convert a 2pt conversion. You always have the same % to make it, but the later you leave it, the less chance you have to adapt if you miss it.
If you think your going to get two more possessions with 4 minutes left in a football game I give up with you. I still know you and your 500K data dude are wrong.
Here's a link to the study. You can clearly see that when after one TD you are down 9, you go for two because it gives you nearly double the percentage to draw even.
*When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments.
*When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments.
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