links....betting talk....week 1

BTW.......regarding TRENDS......and how to use them

  * here talking IN-GAME....probably the best opp to make money

Lower limits means what ?.........they DO NOT WANT YOU.....focusing on these plays.....main reason they would have to spend a TON of time and money.....on staff / software development etc............BUT.......getting tighter every year I've noticed

Above stuff on Troy's O&D from last year......so of limited use right now.....only to SUGGEST what MIGHT occur

  * seems like Bill C puts up that stuff after week 6 or so?

 * CFBstats.com has rushing stats by quarter....Team Rankings has quarter scoring  

HERE'S one .........they often miss / don't understand

Coaches call games differently.......from quarter to quarter.....half to half.........home vs road..................FUKIN FACT...............

  * coaches and/  or coaches sons.....like myself and my boi TD....know this .....most do not

$$$$  Here's the COOL part......even tho (many) coaches are aware of how they might be predictable (and easier for their opponent to figure out).....and most all I reckon... 'scout themselves'......MOST are hard headed as hell......and are gonna stick with their ..........PHILOSOPHY ....................

  * WHY?.....the last thing they want is to be laughed at by other coaches......SO......they get a lead?.....gonna run it / eat clock......

**  much better to lose that way.....than to NOT do it > look like an idiot.......but got a bad D like Atlanta / esp vs Brady?.......BETTER eat clock ha  

eg.      Mike Leach has always began a game cautiously.....trying to find flaws in ALIGNMENT.....or ADJUSTMENTS to motions/ shifts etc....what coverage can I expect by situation....etc....

  * 1H is kinda a warm-up......the 2H he is MUCH more aggressive

Chris Peterson (at Boise anyway)......when on the ROAD....likes to take the crowd outta the game....eliminating / reducing the home edge....by being SUPER aggressive early.....on offense and defense......THEN CRUISE the 2H......get ready for next week / rest guys ........GENIUS

  $  anybody here.....lost money.... just kinda figuring Broncos would continue pedal to the floor 2H?...................

Any betting angles suggested in the above 'trends'.........

SO......look at a HC / OC / DC's tendencies.......when trying to predict 1H / 2H stuff.....or quarter to quarter.............

 

I am hoping that the sharps will hammer GTech week 1, because there may be an opportunity to middle the Tenn/GT game if they can get the number down to 2.5... When the "sharps" auto bet any game where they can middle the 3, that says quite a bit, but when you consider that they actually put big money on one side, in order to manipulate the market and change the line from -3.5 to -2.5 says even more...

This is also something to consider when trying to predict future line movement, for example, if you were hoping you could get GT at +5.5 closer to game time, that is probably unlikely, because "sharps" will be trying to move the line the other way in order to get the middle 3

1. Use Covers to check matchups- I focus on splits like Home/Away Dog/Favorite I will also look at the line movement.  I make sure that I look at the expected weather conditions during the game.

Then i use Covers "Trends" sections, they will provide interesting tidbits like team A is 6-0 ATS the Pac 12.

 I look at each team ATS home/away ATS as homedog/roadfav and vicea versa.  I like to see what a teams ATS record is on different field surfaces, in certain weather, and coming off a SU win/loss.

Next click the Matchups section; this gives you a very easy to read statistical breakdown of every game they've played so far.  It's a good way to see if a team has been winning, even though they have been getting "outstated"

Next I look at the previous 5 matchups between the two teams... Then I look at each teams "previous 5 games" and finally "QB last 10, and QB last 3"

foxsheets is an absolute must for statistical breakdown

Killersports.com is an unbelievable resource, but takes some time to perfect bc you need to learn SDQL to look up anything. Great for angles/trends

Then go to espn scouts inc to try to get a breakdown of the biggest mismatches in the game, these guys do this for a living, and are able to watch the x's and o's of every team, so sometimes they're honest that a QB should shred the opposing teams vanilla defense, and other times you may find out that a QB has never beat a certain defensive scheme.  Some Qb's really struggle against the 3-3-5 defense...

Next i go to jimfeist to check out a teams lead/lag indicators, like Turnover margin, Yards per play, pass per play, run per play, and how those numbers relate to what the defenses theyve played typically allow per pass, rush, and play... Have they been overachieving or undersachieving...

I then look at how lucky a team has been.. have they been winning 1 score games?  How many fumbles do they have a game offensively (how many do they lose)/ how many fumbles do they force (what % do they recover) each team should recover about 50% so if a team is fumbling a ton (Tenn Vols) and they only recover 37% of loose balls, sometimes that's luck going against them... Then I look at the teams ATS record, their MOV )margin of victory, and check their +/- of their MOV ATS.  Basically is a team getting lucky and covering by 1-2 pts, or are the oddsmakers underestimating them and they're covering by 35 a game

I stay on teamrankings, and check how each team ranks in 1st/2nd/3rd and 4th quarter scoring, and then compare it to their opponent.  I then look at the team ratings and see who the best 1st half teams are and which are the worst... Then I do the same thing with the 2nd half... This can get a little complicated but, there's a ton of opportunity to win 2H spreads, this is especially true in CFB where players can be ejected for targeting.  

I actually have a bunch more, and im exhausted, but I have several resources that help explain hedging, arbitrage opportunites, and a lot of the hardcore analytics/data mining/ algorithimas that are pretty much the same techniques used on wall St.... 

It's a little overwhelming.  I appreciate an edge, but the main reason I bet is because I love college football

Don't know the line but love the call.  Tigers (Auburn) are going to be real good ... best game of week 2 ....

     

Miss that man.  .....and now I talk college football with...... this forum!  

.....BA, you and a few others are certainly a breath of fresh air around here this time of year!  Thanks for all the info, big picture philosophy, humor, etc.

Speaking of hard headed coaches, looked like a pretty honest quote from Bob Shoop in yesterday's Tennessee preview:

............good stuff AL.......don't let STATS bog you down tho.....

     * I used to over-stat games a few (not too many) years back

IDEA........is to get to THIS point.....as quickly as possible

Looking at a team's O......

  * What can they do well.......what is their IDENTITY?.......going into a game..........what is it they try to do.....?

The opposing D.....do they have the ability.......TO TAKE AWAY....what their opponent's like to do?....

     * to take away their  identity .........................? 

ONLY thing that matters........

How does team A's O.....match-up vs team B's D?

Will Boston College be able to move the ball in the ACC....vs Fla St.....Clemson.....VT?.......probably not

  *how 'bout in the MAC?.........yep.........(hopefully)..........

forgot....one of the most overlooked factors is....... PACE

  * even from guys that like to play totals wtf

Got a team playing fast that can't move the ball.....like SJSU or UConn?........MAYBE

  * esp vs a quick strike team....like oh say USF (plays both)....or freaking Tulsa? ........ 

 A depth thin team.....not used to playing fast...can REALLY get exposed in a hurry..........UNLESS they can speed the game up / eat clock....keep their D off the field....if they can't get their D any rest.....watchout

Last year I was looking at SJSU at Tulsa.....GRINDING out the stats......when I got to PACE....>>  .WILL SJSU BE ABLE TO 'KEEP UP' HERE? .............hell no

  

Something that I think could be useful is the results of teams "testing days", basically what do players weigh, how many reps of 225 did they do, what's their 40 time... Do you know where I could find that information?  

I would love to see these "experts" fired for always being wrong.  I dont understand how these people are getting paid when theyre always wrong.  People need to start being called out, especially the "experts" who claimed that the 2017 draft class was one of the worst QB classes in decades... Several said McCaffery would never be a starting RB, worthy of a 3rd rd pick.  They said the Trubisky move was the worst of all time.  They also all agreed Jabrill Peppers isint an NFL starter... 

BA,   Ouch,  I forgot to set my clock back today.  Usually don't sleep in that much on Saturdays anyway.

I have a desk full of yellow legal pad papers with scribbles that are getting trashed today. To much old info. The first week is coming into play and not seeing much better than what I have for now. I need a clean desk and a clear mind.  Well,  I need a clean desk,  the clear mind thing is a work in progress.

What's the deal with Totals?

You can play totals and have to worry about two teams up or down. Backwards and forwards.     If I play TT's I have to figure it one way.  Does this team get the pts. or not.  Same pay off.

Don't stop musing,   Doc

yep those Vol coaches .....have probably HURT more than helped their team the past couple of years....like that Bob Shoop tho....

Goes back to what I've been saying for awhile....the BOTTOM LINE.....as to why studying trends is important

  * we humans are weak / stupid / incredibly predictable

  *  we ALL .....DENY this.....therefore...making these effects

     EVEN more pronounced

Coaches........... and handicappers too

  *  that are able to admit / understand > USE this to make them better............>>  win more games......win MORE MONEY

Too bad both of us are too busy with work....trying to figure this stuff out / stay ahead....to ACTUALLY talk some football each week >  HAVE SOME FUN wtf....

    * hell my dumbazz should be retired.......living my dream   >>> buying a kick azz ' man cave on WHEELS' (John Madden style).... traveling to a different spot each week to watch a game......with buddies ....or even better...... a few extremely subservient young / hot Asian chicks.....that don't speak English.....and / or.....the OLDER I get.....being blind also might be nice..........  

as long as Doc Pecador is around......at least there will be someone older and crazier than me.........

* clocks 'fall back'.....in the FALL.....if that joke goes deeper....sorry can't figure it out ha

* right there with ya' on BOTH.....learning how to use a computer WOULD save us a ton of time....AND yellow pads......I seem to LEARN / REMEMBER stuff better when I write it down....so there is NO HOPE for me

* TOTALS?......are for computer guys only I think.....or unless you can 'steal' somebody's total predictions......TT's I agree seem easier...but my 'luck'  with those ain't too great..... 

Love his magazine......quick (10 yr)  reference for all CFB / NFL teams....very easy to see which coaches / teams / QB's..... etc.......follow a pattern.....great EARLY / FADE LATE?......trending UP / DOWN......I use the ATS head to head  match-up stuff for each team a lot.....>>  WHY he lazily doesn't do it for EACH team?.....got me (some don't have a history / but many do > but are blank)

Seems like Northcoast publishes results each week....look on their website or it should be up here...

 https://www.thesportsmonitor.com/pages/home.php

his stats are garbage. Has Georgia tech ranked higher than USC

Listened to him explain his stats, and it's just a cumulative regression model over the past few seasons. Zero predictability.