Listen you greedy gamblers (and you are greedy) you are going to lose.
Math says so.
But now and then a really good capper who isn't such a greedy liar as the rest comes along and gives you information which gives you an edge above break even.
You could be disciplined, you could profit.
But will you????
The edifices in gambling centers are always built by the books and never by the gamblers.
all hail bookie assassin .
he makes enough
he shares
pay attention
AMEN
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Listen you greedy gamblers (and you are greedy) you are going to lose.
Math says so.
But now and then a really good capper who isn't such a greedy liar as the rest comes along and gives you information which gives you an edge above break even.
You could be disciplined, you could profit.
But will you????
The edifices in gambling centers are always built by the books and never by the gamblers.
BA...always been a fan of your insight and analysis. Wanted to know how feel about Nevada +25?
Definitely LEAN that way............
* a very (uncomfortable) ROLE.....for NW....laying 25 at home.....about a 30-35% ATS as a home favorite
Nevada?......looks like a team to play at (some) point....
BUT.....big system changes....
.
O - crazy Hal Mumme's son Matt....installing that Air Raid
* Mumme ...with Leach .....father of Air Raid.......REALLY unlikely they look sharp WEEK 1......possible?....sure
D - top notch DC Jeff Casteel (WVirg / Zona)....installing that 3-3-5 stack .....which if Nevada has the personnel.....could cause problems.....(tough to prepare for)
those who read Steele ONLY.....note:
* leading rusher James Butler (1350 yds) left for Iowa.....to be the back-up wtf.....and Bama transfer QB Cornwell got beat out by last years starter ...
SO.....looks like a deal on the surface.....but too risky week 1.....just WAIT.....see how they play.........OR check 'em out once game has started....maybe play in-game / halftime...........
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by HeHateMe33:
BA...always been a fan of your insight and analysis. Wanted to know how feel about Nevada +25?
Definitely LEAN that way............
* a very (uncomfortable) ROLE.....for NW....laying 25 at home.....about a 30-35% ATS as a home favorite
Nevada?......looks like a team to play at (some) point....
BUT.....big system changes....
.
O - crazy Hal Mumme's son Matt....installing that Air Raid
* Mumme ...with Leach .....father of Air Raid.......REALLY unlikely they look sharp WEEK 1......possible?....sure
D - top notch DC Jeff Casteel (WVirg / Zona)....installing that 3-3-5 stack .....which if Nevada has the personnel.....could cause problems.....(tough to prepare for)
those who read Steele ONLY.....note:
* leading rusher James Butler (1350 yds) left for Iowa.....to be the back-up wtf.....and Bama transfer QB Cornwell got beat out by last years starter ...
SO.....looks like a deal on the surface.....but too risky week 1.....just WAIT.....see how they play.........OR check 'em out once game has started....maybe play in-game / halftime...........
That one made me nervous as well. .... should have put the game away in the 3rd qtr. Nonetheless, will take that outcome. Avoided OT and Under plays hit too.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
NEVER a doubt.....................
That one made me nervous as well. .... should have put the game away in the 3rd qtr. Nonetheless, will take that outcome. Avoided OT and Under plays hit too.
That one made me nervous as well. .... should have put the game away in the 3rd qtr. Nonetheless, will take that outcome. Avoided OT and Under plays hit too.
FIRST thing that comes to mind.......after watching that game?
* was gonna make you GUESS..........but you would somehow get it anyway............
THE EASTERN ILLINOIS PANTHERS........
*7/7 + QB back from a team that beat Miami, O.....and Illinois State LY....before injuries screwed things up
* also beat SDSU few years back.....big losses to NW...Minny also tho
* off nice road win / cover kinda sorta.....at Indiana St
Stats don't show it......but N Illinois took a pretty good beating (physically)....
* with NEBRASKA the following week....be tough to get up for this one....played their azz off vs BC....I was impressed
UNFORTUNATELY......Massey line is on the LOW side at 15 or so....Sagarin says 21 seems like
I'm also thinking take Wake and the points...IF we can get it....> counting on our pals at BetOnline....to come thru for us....... ..
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
That one made me nervous as well. .... should have put the game away in the 3rd qtr. Nonetheless, will take that outcome. Avoided OT and Under plays hit too.
FIRST thing that comes to mind.......after watching that game?
* was gonna make you GUESS..........but you would somehow get it anyway............
THE EASTERN ILLINOIS PANTHERS........
*7/7 + QB back from a team that beat Miami, O.....and Illinois State LY....before injuries screwed things up
* also beat SDSU few years back.....big losses to NW...Minny also tho
* off nice road win / cover kinda sorta.....at Indiana St
Stats don't show it......but N Illinois took a pretty good beating (physically)....
* with NEBRASKA the following week....be tough to get up for this one....played their azz off vs BC....I was impressed
UNFORTUNATELY......Massey line is on the LOW side at 15 or so....Sagarin says 21 seems like
I'm also thinking take Wake and the points...IF we can get it....> counting on our pals at BetOnline....to come thru for us....... ..
BC -2.5 was prime example how important it is to beat a line before it moves
Buncha niu +3.5/+4 winning tickets...and a buncha BC -3.5/-4(late to the party) losing tickets
Any thoughts on Troy/Boise BA? Troy has something like 93% of their offensive production returning, and Boise only 50% of their D production returning. Thinking about Troy TT over, snoozed on +11, I'll take +10.5 if it gets back there.
Long trip for troy....
Good Luck
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BC -2.5 was prime example how important it is to beat a line before it moves
Buncha niu +3.5/+4 winning tickets...and a buncha BC -3.5/-4(late to the party) losing tickets
Any thoughts on Troy/Boise BA? Troy has something like 93% of their offensive production returning, and Boise only 50% of their D production returning. Thinking about Troy TT over, snoozed on +11, I'll take +10.5 if it gets back there.
BC -2.5 was prime example how important it is to beat a line before it moves
Buncha niu +3.5/+4 winning tickets...and a buncha BC -3.5/-4(late to the party) losing tickets
Any thoughts on Troy/Boise BA? Troy has something like 93% of their offensive production returning, and Boise only 50% of their D production returning. Thinking about Troy TT over, snoozed on +11, I'll take +10.5 if it gets back there.
Long trip for troy....
Good Luck
Troy at 10 or more not bad.....wouldn't get overly excited....that Troy O too shaky at times LY....+ Boise coming in with a lot to prove / bit of a chip on their shoulder.......
* nice SPOT for Troy tho...............
Speaking of playing it early ha.......I played it a month or so ago at 12'............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
BC -2.5 was prime example how important it is to beat a line before it moves
Buncha niu +3.5/+4 winning tickets...and a buncha BC -3.5/-4(late to the party) losing tickets
Any thoughts on Troy/Boise BA? Troy has something like 93% of their offensive production returning, and Boise only 50% of their D production returning. Thinking about Troy TT over, snoozed on +11, I'll take +10.5 if it gets back there.
Long trip for troy....
Good Luck
Troy at 10 or more not bad.....wouldn't get overly excited....that Troy O too shaky at times LY....+ Boise coming in with a lot to prove / bit of a chip on their shoulder.......
* nice SPOT for Troy tho...............
Speaking of playing it early ha.......I played it a month or so ago at 12'............
that CSU Colorado game was such a weird game. CSU had identical first downs, yards, and better time of possession as Colorado, and even though they both had 2 ints CSU couldnt score.... CSU was clearly a little rusty, possibly from their Oregon St game, even with that being said every time they moved the ball, they would have terrible penalties, a sack, or a turnover. That was the worst ive seen their offense look in over a year.
I had a beautiful win with UCF, but lost the FAU Over, and the Indiana +21.5. Im down on the week, but nothing serious. I really like FSU, Notre Dame, USC, and over Maryland/Texas...
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that CSU Colorado game was such a weird game. CSU had identical first downs, yards, and better time of possession as Colorado, and even though they both had 2 ints CSU couldnt score.... CSU was clearly a little rusty, possibly from their Oregon St game, even with that being said every time they moved the ball, they would have terrible penalties, a sack, or a turnover. That was the worst ive seen their offense look in over a year.
I had a beautiful win with UCF, but lost the FAU Over, and the Indiana +21.5. Im down on the week, but nothing serious. I really like FSU, Notre Dame, USC, and over Maryland/Texas...
i like Cal +12.5 but west coast teams traveling to the east coast for a noon kickoff are terrible ATS... bc of that, I think id take UNC- they do have a good returning defense, and Fedora was able to make UNC's offense look good with Marquise Williams..
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i like Cal +12.5 but west coast teams traveling to the east coast for a noon kickoff are terrible ATS... bc of that, I think id take UNC- they do have a good returning defense, and Fedora was able to make UNC's offense look good with Marquise Williams..
Rutgers +31' W BC -2' W Col St +8' L Fla +4 Troy +12' Oregon St +4 L
smaller
SMU -24 UNLV -37 Georgia -13' Tex St -14 Iowa St -11' E Caro +4' Hawaii +3 W Portland St +34' W Ohio St / Indiana 1H under 30 W ASU / NMSU 2H over 33' W
note: to all you knuckleheads......that STILL insist WHEN you bet really doesn't matter.....looks like by doing JUST that....I got a FREE 40 pts or so my way.....and was on the right side of every one.....Gators woulda dropped if not for suspensions.....IMO
* gotta know.....what the line should be.....and which way it is likely to MOVE
POINT?.....win / lose.....you've done YOUR job....
$ doesn't work out?.....like Col State......so what / you can be confident MOST will ............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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ONE UNIT
Rutgers +31' W BC -2' W Col St +8' L Fla +4 Troy +12' Oregon St +4 L
smaller
SMU -24 UNLV -37 Georgia -13' Tex St -14 Iowa St -11' E Caro +4' Hawaii +3 W Portland St +34' W Ohio St / Indiana 1H under 30 W ASU / NMSU 2H over 33' W
note: to all you knuckleheads......that STILL insist WHEN you bet really doesn't matter.....looks like by doing JUST that....I got a FREE 40 pts or so my way.....and was on the right side of every one.....Gators woulda dropped if not for suspensions.....IMO
* gotta know.....what the line should be.....and which way it is likely to MOVE
POINT?.....win / lose.....you've done YOUR job....
$ doesn't work out?.....like Col State......so what / you can be confident MOST will ............
i like Cal +12.5 but west coast teams traveling to the east coast for a noon kickoff are terrible ATS... bc of that, I think id take UNC- they do have a good returning defense, and Fedora was able to make UNC's offense look good with Marquise Williams..
NO......too much uncertainty there AL...........Cal could WIN....or get destroyed........go to week 2 man...........
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:
i like Cal +12.5 but west coast teams traveling to the east coast for a noon kickoff are terrible ATS... bc of that, I think id take UNC- they do have a good returning defense, and Fedora was able to make UNC's offense look good with Marquise Williams..
NO......too much uncertainty there AL...........Cal could WIN....or get destroyed........go to week 2 man...........
I look for Michigan State to take out a season of frustrations out 2H.......looks close due to 2 Sparty TO's........
But BG has one play of 45 yards.......23 plays that got 'em 55 yards.....essentially...1-6 on 3rd
Sparty with 267 TO......15 FD (4 for BG).....5.1/rush....4/7 on 3rd
looks solid to me
completely agree I've been watching the entire game and that first drive TO at the 1 yd line was a big shift in the game but michigan state controlled the whole way and their defense was dominant with a lot of big stops.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
I look for Michigan State to take out a season of frustrations out 2H.......looks close due to 2 Sparty TO's........
But BG has one play of 45 yards.......23 plays that got 'em 55 yards.....essentially...1-6 on 3rd
Sparty with 267 TO......15 FD (4 for BG).....5.1/rush....4/7 on 3rd
looks solid to me
completely agree I've been watching the entire game and that first drive TO at the 1 yd line was a big shift in the game but michigan state controlled the whole way and their defense was dominant with a lot of big stops.
............yep no Sheet..........I (accidently) had WAY too much money on BC.......betting on 3 different sites + a few buddies too..........
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