links....betting talk....week 1

Well BA has vouched for him and I'd like to know if he pays for his services, or if the links he uses are all free.

There he is.....bringing fine BIG PICTURE handicapping.... to the forum.............

Naw....I (should) pay for analytics...maybe step up my TOTALS game.....looks like his power rankings / info in emails..is all that's free

Shoulda clarified my statement about him probably....

  * his numbers are just better than what else I've seen CURRENTLY...more solid than Massey's....ESPN's...probably close to Vegas's numbers than Bill C's (from previews)....etc

  

For PACE ........I use Bill C's stuff....

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles

OR....do it myself until his stuff pops up.....maybe week 6?

  *using Team Rankings usually

This spot not bad....https://www.cfbanalytics.com/

BOL this year man......stay outta that GD forum ha.....

 

.  

don't be such a pusssy FS...say what's on your mind man....

These ANALYTICS guys just stick to their numbers......so a lot may look strange....

    * IDEA?......the basics I preach here.....we are way too emotional.....too biased....so REMOVING all that stuff creates an EDGE.....

I (used to).....think that about Sagarin too

  * now I often check HIS vs mine

Here's Big Ed Feng's top few PR.....

  * Stanford research based PHD

Alabama        22.7
Clemson         18.4
Florida State  18.2
Ohio State     17
Oklahoma     16
Auburn          14.3
Stanford        13.6
Wisconsin     13.6
LSU               13
Washington  12.4
Penn State    12.0
Miami (FL)
Louisville
Georgia Tech
USC
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Florida
Texas A&M
Tennessee
Washington State
TCU
Notre Dame
North Carolina State
North Carolina
Mississippi
Houston
Iowa
Baylor
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Northwestern
Kansas State
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Pittsburgh
Texas
Mississippi State

Got few problems here....

  *  that GT sitting right above USC does look outta place....so REJECT the entire list?......maybe he's right / Trojans lose a lot....and have done NOTHING really....coach has proven?.....NOTHING yet.......careful before you lay 8 to Tree or 12 to Texas (HERMAN)

 

NOTE:   numbers / analytics are my weakness....so I EMBRACE that kinda stuff (not enough) ....rather than REJECT it like most would......

   $$   ..the smartest thing I've done?......besides now looking at the BIG PICTURE of course......is switching from basic CFBstats.com stuff......to Bill C's analytical style................ 

sorry man thought I hit that 1st time around ?????

Those are just TENTATIVE plays.....and (many) are based on spots that MIGHT occur.....more of a suggestion than a play really.....

  *  eg.     he says play UMass vs Hawaii week 0 ....ha

If you go the UMass page.... he says no Pointspread Power Play

SOO....we go to Hawaii's page....which says fade at UMass...

   *which must be....looking at the info....'bad / ugly / stats you will like >>  

1-7 SU in E time zones......since 1959......maybe 1-8 ATS vs a weak opponent (< .333)......so something to maybe check out ( I agree).....rather than to play

Since many are tentative....(play IF dog....play IF off loss...etc)....tough to keep records .................

  * he might tell you if ask him ?......here on Covers or Twitter maybe 

Thanks for that. I took a look. That's what I wanted.

Don't worry. I'll never be stepping foot in GD again.

as I mentioned above....

that cfbanalytics is (looks like) maybe the best site for tempo stats.....can't believe I just now found it

overall.....

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/2016tempo.php

head to head......other stuff too 

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/index.php

Yeah, no sh!t, had to cram alot into July knowing that August was going to be a fluster fck.  Literally marked up a Calendar of what I intended to review when / make sure I wasn't biting off more than I can chew / "communicate" to my wife that this level of time commitment was about to happen.

And actually talking some football does sound fun. We'll have to do that as much as possible this season.  

Time management!? .... Fck me... just don't sleep I guess.  1 hour commute each way seems kinda normal any more.

Last weekend - big family reunion (wife's family that is).  Some of the family dynamics a little stressful.  

This weekend - HS reunion

Next weekend - company picnic Saturday.  Then--taking the 7 year old to his first MLB game on Sunday, Dodgers at Tigers.  Should be a great time.

My Saturdays this fall will involve not only watching as much college football as I can, but also coaching TWO boys soccer teams (U8 & U6).  Schedule will coincide with CFB weeks 3-8.  What did we ever do before DVR!?  May have to compare notes on how some of these teams look as I play catch up.

Hope you're couple days away / CFB cram session was productive.  

And that Asian Persuasion always was a good time...    Right on!

TD

Wow. UCF had the highest number of possessions per game in all of CFB last year. That is mind-blowing. 

Of course, as is the point of studying tempo, they gave up the highest number as well.

Even more amazing?......each week I tell you.....what the line 'should be'......and 90% or so I'm guessing....pay little attention .....failing to recognize the line (almost always)......moves in the direction I suggest.......... 

  * nope......didn't do it in freakin' early March ha....week 2 (should) be up Friday 9/1......ain't gonna promise anything tho.....< helluva lotta work

......man for SOME reason......I bust a gut every time I read that crap........I just might take out some life insurance for that Ralphie......I prefer the USF -20 thread.......

  * that's Mike Meds thread.....LSU UNDER 9 ????? 

"I guess you will never know, but no matter how bad I may have been, it is not even close to how big of an fool you are. Too bad I do not have a chance to meet you up close and personal. Your face would resemble that burger than I had for lunch, BEFORE it was cooked. P**** ".

that's a 6 pt teaser DB.....small just for grins.....looking for an excuse to play N Dame.....since I missed the early numbers on both......semi-cheesy but at +100 not a bad risk IMO..... ...........

HOW DARE YOU QUESTION....................................

you mean the pick?....or possible typo (not 2')....probably was at 2 when I posted it....can't recall to tell ya the truth.............

pick explained for whomever...........been awhile

If a number cruncher.......good for you BTW......these teams may appear to be close.......suggesting this one (should) be closer to pick-em......meaning at 2' the value is with NI

  * I see that side.....but the BABPHT (BA big picture handicapping theory)......says THIS game is HUGE.......for a BC team desperately needing W's.....HC has shown that NC games are key.....AND he prepares his teams to play tough on the road

 $  while 2' is no doubt a 'fair' line......I have this one at BC -5

*  meaning essentially the (intangibles) I mentioned.....are worth about 3 points or so

NI ?.....FOCUS is on MAC games......tough as hell as a ROAD DOG......not so much in THIS SPOT......this game is important sure....but their goal is a MAC title.....they're gonna make a bowl anyway....>> the EDGE is with BC 

  * their D......esp run D..... is weak

I think BC......with an improved O.....(how much who TF knows sure)......will move it at least some.....on NI....I don't think NI moves it much at all tho.....on BC

$$   BC should win the game.....and IMO there is a strong chance they win by 3 or more...............

ONE NOTE.............

This game is a great eggzample..... of what's wrong with COVERS.....betting mentality........misconceptions......etc

MANY guys like the play......leading others to think that this some great LOCK.....or something

  * are there  2 threads or so?......WARNING guys... to not play BC !!

SO......win / lose.....discussion will carry over LONG into the following week......with " I told  you so's"......either way

  * esp if the bet loses.......oh it's a Covers blood bath < I told you !!

IDEA?......stop living / dying with each F'in play......whydontcha

  * maybe view each as a simple  'PROBABILITY'...>>  it's esp great if you can express the probability as a number %.....like that Double-Up does..............

WHY in TF......EMOTIONALLY tie yourself to each play?

  * WIN?.....brag on yourself for days

 * LOSE.....blame it on ANYTHING......whine about how you were screwed somehow.........BOTH incredibly CHILDISH right?

OK......why do SO MANY grown-azz men......do it?

  * check the threads......most EVERYBODY does it

PROBLEM?.......adding EMOTION to this......leads us to making STUPID decisions..................................

BC loses?......I'll check the boxscore.....play / drive charts......etc 

  * see if anybody got hurt.....anything weird happen....pick 6 / ST TD......etc 

*  BC rushes for 5 yds/carry......out gains NI 350 to 250....basically controls the game......late KO return for TD / pick 6 costs me the win / cover.....I'm HAPPY > move on.......I DID MY JOB......did not play OR coach in this game

BC wins/ covers ?.....I might grin (briefly)......but still  go to boxscore....

NI out gains BC.....350-250.......BC is not able to run or move the chains consistently.....or shut down the NI running game.....

  * maybe a late NI turnover wins it for BC............I AM PISSED.....for 5-10 minutes........

Before moving on I see if I can 'play off' this one......either way

  * how does either prepare his team AFTER  a win / loss

page 98-99 in PLAYBOOK

NI ?....Carey is 21-10 ATS off a W.....only  4-9 off a L........

BC....Addazio is 10-11 off W.....12-9 off a L

NI got beat by W Illinois LY.....so (with @ Nebraska on deck)...they might be a bit more focused vs E Illinois next week......

BC.....BAD spot next week.....at home (weaker at home).....vs WF .....a team they beat LY......with NOTRE DAME on deck

   * Clawson tough as dog / good in revenge spot

WORK  >>  MAKE THE PLAY  >> MOVE ON

   * don't sweat GAME to GAME......even WEEK to WEEK......treat it as a continuous thing.....like a round of golf.....week 1 = 1st hole etc.........hole #2 starts?.....better forget hole #1................ 

just now figured out what you guys were talking about...........

  *holy crap do I need a vacation.......already

Of course mean BOSTON COLLEGE.....for some reason had BYU in my  head.....continued to c/p same mistake .....sorry 'bout that

Should have invited you on my vacation. Sitting now in my rented log house on 80 private acres overlooking my (rented) private lake in the Upper Peninsula of Meeeeeeeechigan. GOD's COUNTRY!!!

Catching Northern Pike from the dock, watching all the wildlife, and even the solar eclipse, ooooooooh,    PRICELESS.

 

But will be back in Nevada by weeks end all recharged.

BOL this season brother 

  * my favorite play.....on a so-so card admittedly

STOP......... (you that think Rutgers is a bad play here).....and consider the BIG PICTURE.......and in this case is the number correct?.....OR is it INFLATED based on the public perceptions of these 2 teams......?

.........I like the play......but one of the reasons I wrote this one up?...reading that Scalabrine's breakdown.... really nice job BTW....... ............you could just FEEL......the (confirmation) BIAS.....seeping thru.............

"stop telling me Rutgers is GOOD......they STINK! ....BRO......I know this for a fact......you ain't gonna convince me otherwise  !!!!"

 Scalabrine.....showing unbelievable restraint.....patiently addressed EACH..... 'concern'..........BTW....did ANYBODY check this one out...BEFORE you responded?...........doubt it

I woulda (fairly) quickly said...........LOOK dumbazz.....I'm telling you they are VERY likely to be MUCH better than people think....AND that the NUMBER.....is therefore WRONG.....simple....wtf is wrong with you man..........

In fact.....about a 5-7 pt difference between week 3-4 Rutgers.....and end of 2016 Rutgers.....this line is based (as most are) on end of 2016.....with a slight adjustment

SURE......Rutgers is building for a 2018 bowl bid.....probably

  * this year they're simply trying to hang on....get a foothold

IF.....the transfers produce.....esp Bolin (he stays healthy as well)....WR Grant stays healthy..... Rutgers could be a full 10 pts better...........>>  meaning it will take 3-4 weeks or more for oddsmakers to catch up....making 1-3 pt adjustments each week

IT MAY.....or MAY NOT work.......so use this advice from me and others......to simply HELP you make your decision.....................

  * you cowards / entitled pusssies......that will no doubt RUN to Scalabrine's thread to tell him what an idiot he was .....are the scum of the earth IMO....by all means try and run him off....like you did Boom and  the FREAK.....let's lower the IQ of this forum.....as low as it can go...................