links....betting talk....week 1

BA,   I think Mike Med made some good points about playing trends.   I play the trend game judiciously. 

The more I think about it.... SMU may be a fraud. That defense could be as weak as last year. RSW is 5.    No bet on RSW because of silly numbers.  Huh,  -150  on the over?   Looks like a push.  Very tough league.  

I like the AAC.   Houston beats OU and SMU beats Houston and SMU loses 75-0 to Navy @ home?  Gotta love it.

Navy might be the dark horse in this league. They return a lot.  Yeh, what about the QB?   I imagine he is well trained. Maybe a small play.

I put a small play on SHSU to win the D2 at 8 to 1 .

Highland Park puts out the best pitchers and the best golfers.  Good on Spieth.  Great tournament.

My friends and I are not that down on Lucky but we are having a great time with Blitz jokes.

Muse a little,   Doc

                                                                    

TRENDS?...........

  *excellent point wtf........I have NEVER said to play trends....why are you telling ME?.....start your OWN thread spreading the virtues of 100 % match-up handicapping.......whydontcha

 

Identifying......and understanding the SPOT....

  * is what I'm talking about

TRENDS.....help greatly in doing this........you don't use the trend DIRECTLY........HOLY CRAP

      * continually ...... spewing this handicapping poison.....is fine for the barstool......but not good here

Spieth?.....a timely reference............................

I NEVER (almost).....lose a bet on JS

WHY?.....because I wait for the right SPOT.....

  * unlike EVERYBODY else......

You have the option...(when a tourny begins)......to GUESS how he'll play......based on how he's playing currently.....and if you're smart .....check out his past performance on similar courses....type greens etc

OR.......you can do that.....AND check out his play.....from a psychological standpoint AS WELL

  * notice how I stress.....I'm doing what everybody else is doing.....PLUS this

Meaning....how does his play change.....as play progresses in a  round / tournament?

  *strong starter?.....after a great / poor round > his response?

  *'moving day' ?......after 2 weaker rounds....one strong one weak....etc

  * closer?.....off strong / weak Sat?......how bout if he fared POORLY his last Sunday?

ANSWER?.....is  of course to 'play off' a failure of any kind.....IF he's in general playing well......and that course does not punish (too severely).....his spraying the ball off the tee 

  * after his terrible hole (stole a bogey).....I immediately bet (more) on him to win ML............biggest bet I've made in awhile....was him to close out the Colonial 

But......

BY ALL MEANS.......FEEL FREE........to come here and tell us what a waste of time this all is............................

OF COURSE....it's tough to understand eggzactly WHY.....certain things happen.....PREDICT what might happen.......................

If you continally ESCHEW....psychological factors / the BIG PICTURE....
  *banging your head on EVERY tree in the 'forest'

Just looking at the numbers ALONE ......like most here ...especially your pal MikeMed
  * sure you might conclude....WOW they have a ways to go.....

       note : 5.0 + / rush.....36 points!....450 TD / g....6.0/play.....yds/pt 12.5....wow they stink!

BUT....stepping back....taking a look at the BIG PICTURE

@ NORTH TEXAS ST
  *lost the HEART / LEADER of the team  for the season.... + RB

AT Baylor
  * fought extremely hard still....it's 6-3 at the half
      $      Bears MOVE THE BALL?...................NO (5.2/play ain't movin it > SMU O  too many 3 'in outs)

Liberty at home

TCU
  * 6-3 at the half....they're pushing Frogs around .....WR's can't get open
  * SMU wore down 2H....allowed big plays
     $   a LOT of the yards Ponies allowed were LATE huge runs as they wore out.....yep one of nation's worst

AT Temple
AT Tulsa
  *terrible back to back

BYE /  15 days rest

Houston....with a breather they win 38-16
  * not tough to figure really....Cougs planning on NYD bowl....their 'bubble burst'....vs Navy
    

     PLUS.....rumors that Herman.....was 'to be announced soon'....as Texas coach were big that week

@ Tulane......a tough well coached team....W 35-31
    $  note.....no  hangover from huge upset

Memphis at home ....got killed
  * Mem off 2 losses with another on deck (USF)

@ ECU.....nice spot for a letdown here (believe I had EC here)
  * nope W 55-31

USF at home
  * allowed big plays...but out-gained USF 578-473.....USF 2-12 on 3rd....Ponies 28-16 FD edge
      game was 28-24 end of 3rd...

Navy at home.....got killed
  *here's where the match-up won.....(Navy with AAC title game with Temple on deck).... Navy just a pretty tough team / bad match-up for Ponies..... ( after AF loss....beat Houston....Notre Dame.....Memphis.....Tulsa)

SO......we conclude SMU and SMU D.....is not very good?

OR......was it their schedule.....that wore them down?

AND.....what can we eggspect from Morris's teams....given time?

  $$$   that SOB can coach

If unsure......just wait.....my guess is they're gonna be tough as hell.....given a workable schedule........................ 

added a couple......a few weeks ago ha

  * ISU I bet one unit at 10....EC +4' small.....EC disappeared / ISU went up to 11'.....as ' recommendations'..... I'll list as smaller plays only........

$    Iowa St (might) drop ?.......I have no idea really.......also not sure if BetOnline will offer this one.........if so it might 

     EC I would think only drops......can't find out why this one was pulled......guessing the health of Sirk......who if healthy could be worth 2-3 points or so 

good man Ken.....all the best this year...............

BF-     You also see........Irish -9 WITH LSU =  2 team 6 pt teaser

other one different game......you see I have Oregon St.....

probably........... WAY too much uncertainty to mess with.....

  * on not one but both sides

Cougs are getting too much EARLY respect no doubt.....(losing HERMAN and Ward no big deal ? wtf).........

  * maybe MA is a terrible head coach?.....and they're much worse

Roadrunners are extremely dangerous in this SPOT ......but way too flaky to be counted on .......I have no idea if they're gonna get killed.....or keep it tight / maybe win the damm game....

GTTH (gun to the head)........I would take UTSA and the points.....BOL this year buddy...................

  

$  nothing wrong with a SMALL / value type play......13-14 is probably too many.....tall order with Zona on deck/ plus that Alamodome is a weird place to play 

Cougs are getting too much EARLY respect no doubt.....(losing HERMAN and Ward no big deal ? wtf).........

  * maybe MA is a terrible head coach?.....and they're much worse

I respectfully disagree with your assessment on Houston.   Herman may have been the motivator, but Applewhite called the plays.   At least for 2-3 years, when they have Allen, they will be just as good if not better.    I will pass @UTSA even though there is a pretty big talent advantage for Houston.    I like them best in week 3 when they host Rice.   That will be a slaughter.    I grew up in the Houston area.   One thing about these guys (Third Ward Defense) is that these players can be fair weathered.  Houston gets underrated talent from the inner city.    Kind of like Da U, when the stakes are high (see OU last season on a neutral field) these guys play out of their minds.   When they don't feel like it, not so much.     I think they will bet UTSA, and 50 50 if they cover.   I think they will lose at Arizona as a 1 pt fave in week 2.   I think they will be pissed off, and come back and beat Rice by 30+ as a 20 pt fave in week 3.  To me, the value will be in week 3.     Allen has not thrown a pass in over a year, but he was indeed a 5 star prospect, and that is more QB than they had the last two seasons.     They return their OL almost 100%.   Oliver will be a disruptive force.    I think Houston is legit.   Herman left them is good shape.   And from what I have seen, they respect Applewhite and will play for him.   That's my $.02 on Houston.  

Herman may have been the motivator, but Applewhite called the plays.   At least for 2-3 years, when they have Allen, they will be just as good if not better.  

AS ALWAYS.............I try to avoid BARSTOOL talk

  * most here LOVE it........making BOLD predictions that if turn out to be true.....make you a Covers big shot..........

  * the JimmyDAFreak syndrome.....like Bama to Cover?.....why not predict Bama by 6 TD's?......why not predict Texas to slaughter the Terps and SJSU?.......and then beat USC?    

   >>  then if you're wrong?.......usually folks forget anyway.....if they don't.... just LEAVE......come back later..........

What's the RUSH?.......   

What possible reason is there to not simply WAIT and see?....

CORRECT.....there ain't one

$   Houston may kill UTSA.....they might get beat......Texas may slaughter the Terps.....OR it might be close.....remote IMO but could they lose?.....of course

WHEN RISKING HARD EARNED CASH......it's  best to avoid UNCERTAINTY....rather than EMBRACE it wtf..........

Especially week 1......bet / invest on KNOWN quantities

  * teams with HC / QB + most starters / key players returning......

WHY?....you have a record of their performance.......SO it's much easier to predict how they'll play...........................RIGHT?

 

Easier said than done.....

The idea is  be EMOTIONALLY DETACHED from your investments....or any decision

  * in wagering...especially the outcome as well

'YOUR' Horns?.....

  * smart path would be to be CRITICAL early.....because they have been incredibly average.....for quite awhile

$$  Why not make them SHOW YOU 1st?......why be a cheerleader?

Handling a bad week or 2?

Only 2 guys here....I know for sure.....can deal with a few bad weeks..........that Nostradamus......and myself.....no coincidence either that we are OLDER than most here

  * sure there are more .....not many tho. 

You and most everybody here........go 0-3 week 1?.....it will mess with you all week ......and effect your decision making week 2........100%

Either / both of us go 4-12?......it's meaningless......move right on to week 2.....week 2 go 5-10?......so what......leave Covers?.....stop betting?.....bet less?........NO......................

i took it because there was line value. but bookie is right, too much uncertainty from houston. either a blowlut, or field goal game

yep at 14'....not bad at all........I made a few (very) small plays on those early ones.....FAU +17' .....few more.................

  * somehow caught me by surprise....I was nowhere near ready in March or whenever

UMass / Hawaii?.......

A great game to bring up............

STAY FAR AWAY.......don't even bring this game up......EVER AGAIN................

Hawaii is no doubt the better team...........

BUT.....you would have to be a LUNATIC.....to bet on them here......

WHY?...................................holy crap

* mentioned this somewhere......?

Crossing what 5 time zones....?

  * what does this mean?.....theoretically......you need 5 days to be 100% .....even if we give them a break ......(they know how to do it).....and say 2-3 days.....they're still behind.....Assuming a Thursday morning or so arrival

AND.....they will be in school already / UMass will not.....

$$$  meaning Hawaii is subject to TIME restrictions......4 hours/ day....20 hrs/week total..........UMass is NOT

  * note both are limited to 6 practices / week.....3 contact / 3 non-contact................but you can see a HUGE advantage for UMass ....in addition to the stress of classes / chick distraction ha

$  SMART thing to do?..........................AVOID

    * or bet UMass.......small

COL / CSU?

Another great game to bring up....

  * BTW on it boss......got CSU +8'......that 7-7' still ok 

WHY?................an eggzample of BABPH

  * BA Big Picture Handicapping

1)  Buffs WAY overachieved LY......this line is based on 2016 pretty much ......their O strong you  bet.....BUT the DEFENSE?....not nearly as tough...........................<<  I'm guessing

2)  CSU will also have a GUB edge here.....(game under the belt).....a Steele handicapping angle (LEGIT).....as they have a game vs Oreg St week ZERO........wtf .......

  * I think they struggle vs Oreg St ( a RUGGED / physical team btw).....with the Buffs in mind < got killed LY  

$    HERE.....they come to play no doubt......not much reason they don't keep this one close

NOTE;    IF.....they whip the Beavs.....really extending themselves....I will be (slightly) nervous.......might look to buy back in-game / halftime............................  

BOL this year GG............................... 

 

thanks man BOL...............................

 B.C. cannot pass the ball.....Darius Wade has looked awful trying.....They have FR Anthony Brown but he is a mystery.....Coach Addazio loves to run the ball....They only had 1830 passing YDS last season....The problem is they also suck running the ball especially for a team that works on nothing but running the ball....They only AVG 3.4 YDS per carry....Addazio has slotted RB Jon Hillman as the starter again.....He AVG 2.9 YDS per carry....He only gained 542 YDS.....In 184 ATT he had 66 YDS lost......Their O-Line gave up 28 sacks which is horrible for a team that tries to run the ball as much as they do.........They have 4 starters coming back on the O-line and while they are a more experienced unit, in this case I think some more turnover may have helped..................On "D" they lose 3 starters who combined for 19.5 tackles for loss.....They were good against the run last season but those numbers will be difficult to replace....

But don't worry, the magazine that this info came from is in Lake Michigan.  There's a thread about that.

Pretty important to see how BC (well, any team) performed against whom...  big difference vs. just raw #s with no context.

I shouldn't say this..........not unlike much of what I say........

BUT.....much of the 'communication' issues here........

 

Are usually guys pushing / arguing..... BARSTOOL / RECREATIONAL handicapping theories........

  * " I don't need to do THIS!.....I've been kickin' A for years BRO !

Which of course is your right........you bet

BUT...............why not make an EFFORT?

  * I've got only precious few years left ha.....I'm begging here c'mon man.............

Here's a homework assignment.........

  * if betting for FUN?......stop taking it so seriously whydontcha

 $   STOP PRETENDING wtf

You can use the GOY lines .....to build a decent set of POWER RATINGS........

  * 5Dimes has a bunch up now 

Do one conference at a time.......won't take you long at all

  * starting from scratch......is a biitch. 

.

eg.     . let's say you like the Big 12......

Assign OU a value of 100.....50.....or zero whatever

  * 100 maybe best

Using a flat 3 for home field.....or whatever you want.....assign values for OU's opponents.......

  * eg   OU is favored by 3 AT Okie S seems like......so you give OSU a (starting) number of 94..........OU is 6 pts better / minus 3 for Okie St's home field advantage =  OU -3

Then do the same for Okie St ......then TCU.....Texas etc

  * numbers won't match exactly .....but should be close....should do all teams but don't have to..... to get the idea

When done....it should look something like this

OU     100

OSU     93

TCU     91

TX        90

KST     88

BAY     86

WV      84

TT       80

ISU     79

KU      70

THEN......go to Bill C's previews....he predicts the score for EVERY game played............ADJUST the ones you aren't sure of

 * he LOVES Texas.....

THEN......consult Massey's numbers....Sagarin's  2016 stuff maybe.....avoid ESPN's.....or Steele's +/- numbers

  * adjust the confusing ones....Baylor.....TT.....ISU etc

POOF!......you now understand things better than most everybody here.......and will know if you're getting a good deal.....or getting screwed.....and can argue INTELLIGENTLY 

Do the same for each conference.....or just the ones you care about......assigning 100 for the top team

  * when done....go back and adjust

eg.    If Bama is the top team......keep them at 100

        If you have Bama 10 better than OU....OU becomes a 90.....Okie St an 83.....etc   

VERY BASIC......but much better than nothing 

  * adjusting each week is the hard part......knowing how to use a computer.....is a big help ha........................................