links....betting talk....week 1

BA,  the last GOY I've played was N. Dame -7 @ B. C.  After reading B. Connelly's take on both teams and the fact he thinks S&P makes N. Dame -14,  I'm counting on the spread to rise by game time. N. Dame has best players all over the place. I wouldn't think to many let down games for the Irish ( especially early) with all the close losses last year. 

Irish off Georgia / Sparty on deck......BC beat WF LY (+3)....so no shocker if they lose to Wake TY (week before ND)

  * so Irish off physical game with Georgia.....with a look-a-head (for them) vs Sparty.....laying 7 on the road to .BC..... off loss?.....with Clemson on deck........bad spot for BC no doubt.....but they usually play ND tough......

BA,  Not scared.  N. Dame does good.  The deal with GOY'S is getting good numbers.  Seems like a play to me. This point spread may be fair but not for me.  I see it at - 10by game time.  Lots of if on the 1st games.  If BC  wins like we hope the  line may be skewed. 

 

First, I think this only gets more attention, because it's a QB moving to MLB, but realistically most players could excel at multiple positions.  Would it surprise you if Leonard Fournette could have been the best LB in the country, had he played defense?  There are so many LB's that move to RB, and DB's who play WR... Joel Lanning is 6'2 235lbs, and was listed as a dual threat QB.  Realistically, he was a RB. who clearly has the agility, power to play LB, considering he had 15 rushing TD's last year.  He's a beast in the weight room, extremely dedicated to MLB, and has an advantage calling a defense, based on his years as a QB.   

60% steady!!!  Pays the bills out here in the desert.

'person' Butkus.....Covers.............

Bout damm time you started pullin' your weight around here AL...............................

Good man Thomas.....BOL this year buddy...............

to all you confused Millennials......Person Butkus......was like a REALLY good LB................

I recommend this guy...only thing he tweets about once / year...

        

yep I agree AL......twitter is a great / underrated resource

I use it for a VERY quick preview / review of NFL stuff

  * not much for CFB..(YET)..maybe this year for injuries.....line moves etc

Some guys...provide a GREAT in-game analysis.....that Chris Brown (Smart Football) is really sharp......I've got several that I follow listed

stuff like..... explaining why certain plays are working.....why they might not work 2H......pointing out defensive weaknesses....etc

  * lotta current / ex coaches that study film and (seem) to know a lot about how certain 

BA,   Just bumping this post up.  To much good info to let get buried.

Looks like we agree on 5 games.  Apparently we both got our picks at the right time on all games we're playing.  Hard to buy out or increase.

Starting to question myself as it closer to the season but I do that every week. I bet with confidence to start then start worrying about could be and maybe's.  

Anyway,  have a good weekend.        Doc

good man Doc......................

Care to guess who the betting favorite is.....to be the next Ole Miss HC?................................

You got it......Chad Morris

  * they'll have a tough time getting a 'name' guy.....he should have a fine 2017 season......hate to see him go but IMO a great choice for Ole Miss  

Interesting....  appears this may put some pressure on Texas A&M to decide who is their next 'guy' whenever they part ways with Sumlin (seems inevitable, just a matter of when).  IF A&M were to be truly interested in Morris, although seems like quite a jump from SMU to the SEC, then rumors of Morris being the front runner elsewhere could help Morris have some options.  Not sure A&M is really that interest though in their alum.  Any of you Texas boys have a feel for what head coaching direction A&M will go in the future?  --long Head Coaching resume or an up & comer like Morris??

NO DOUBT.....'good ol boys' are sitting around right now ....putting feelers out to gauge interest...............also no doubt a few.....CANNOT WAIT to get Sumlin outta town.............

I just hope those stupid rumors don't get started and screw up SMU's season.....week 8 or so......"Morris to be announced as Ole Miss / Aggie HC soon"...... ala Herman to Texas LY

Aggie HC?......pressure will be HUGE.....to bring in an Aggie / good ol' southern boy.....after foreigners Franchione > Sherman > and Sumlin ha.................usual suspects > Chip Kelly....Jon Gruden...Bill Cowher....Jimmy Johnson.......Les Miles.........Vince Lombardi......................... 

BA,  Yeah,  it sounds right.  I hate it and hadn't thought about it that much.  Losing Morris?   Ouch!

Morris has an extension till 2023.....and he is a job-hopper with few equals.............

  *but.....did turn down Baylor's 5 yr / 24.5 million offer....

I would think he leaves for A&M......but who knows might turn down Ole Miss to stay in Texas.....I'm guessing that wife of his....likes Highland Park...............

bk1374.....thanks man......BOL this year.....................

Rather than (further) .....highjack Double-ups thread.....

I'll continue bashing that MikeMed here................

Looking at how to use STATS....

  *absolutely BRUTAL.....how most guys do it

GOAL?.....is to move away.....from the ESPN generic yards/ game type garbage.....which is not adjusted to SOS and /or situation.....and TOTALLY useless

  *eg  my favorite?.....Kent State has the nation's BEST RUN D!

    maybe 5-6 yrs ago....they allowed < 3 yds/rush......STEWPID 

AND.....slowly ......quietly embrace the greatness of analytics....like that of Bill C  >>  SBNation....Football Study Hall.....Football Outsiders......

NOTE:     not saying you MUST do this to win money....just that you will make MORE MONEY.....if you tighten things up a bit

eg.      team A vs team B

Team A averages.... lets say....3.4/rush........Team B allows 4.6/rush.......................          

You've already taken it beyond Level 1 (yds / game / ESPN crap)

  * that is... A averages 149 yds/g......B allows 201/g

BUT....is Level 2 good enough?............NOPE
  *unless you wanna be AVERAGE....like most

Level 3 -  gotta look at strength of opponents (for each)
  * ie....A's opponents strength vs the run?  / can B's opponents run at all?    

STOP HERE?................not if you wanna be GOOD....consistently
 $    to UNDERSTAND....the offensive IDENTITY of team A.....you gotta go to Bill C........Level 4
 
What SITUATIONS....favor / not....team A?....besides of course maybe a physical advantage / disadvantage

  * run a lot on SD? (standard downs)....predictable?

  *  early / late down success?
  * stuff rate ......allow penetration?
  * sack rate......protect passer?
  * a patient / move the chains type?.....or rely on explosive (big) plays?...etc ....etc
 
NOW.....how does team B....match-up?
  *eggzamine the same type things for B's D.....

KEY  :  Once you have established the IDENTITY of team A's O.....  you AX yourself.....

Can team B.....DISRUPT what A likes to do....??

..
  $$$$$     ESSENTIALLY.....take away....their identity?   

NOTE:     AND.....have the pleasure of knowing you know more.....than most every single 'analyst'.....on TV

YES....an (incredibly) broad overview....I'll do a little more on this stuff later.....break down a game with examples maybe........

Good man as always JR.......................

WAHOO is back !......................

   BOL this year man

...........     C'mon BA..........Just said most trends are useless......Dont blindly follow them.....Too many other things to consider.....would you bet on a team because of a trend   if you could not connect any strategical reasoning as to  why the trend exists?....I dont think you would...There are trends that have value, that are real........My point was  Marc Lawrence prints too many of the random useless ones.....I dont reject new capping ideas.....Just the opposite as Im always trying to get better....I apply fundamentals (matchups, talent)

situational (revenge, weather, teams before - on deck)

AND trends.....How much value a trend holds and when to incorporate a real trend is what I am working on as I originally posted...There are tools that allow you to get edges and I am always evolving.......This forum is all about sharing ideas as we all have one common cause...