Bookmaker openers opened a few things up.............
added ................
ONE UNIT
Col St +8' BYU -2' GATORS +4
------------------
Rutgers +31'
smaller
Oreg St +3 SMU -24 UNLV -37 ----------------
Georgia -13' Irish -9 / LSU -6
Rutgers will likely stink AGAIN.....but IMO.....terrible value with UW laying 31 on this LONG road trip......Huskies (really) didn't move the chains well LY.....only 3.0/rush....17 FD...3/12 3rd down.....scored on big plays / 2 ST TD's
Georgia maybe shaky with Irish on deck..... (hence small play)....but I don't see how App St moves the ball here....and how they stop Ga running game for 4 Qtrs
*note : (maybe) poor value too....simply based on LY / past performances....10 > 12'....arguably a fair line.
Ditto with LSU / Irish.........
*kinda cheezy....like the Irish but MISSED the < 14......so looking for an excuse.... to play them maybe ha
*But....IMO....a TALL ORDER.....for BYU to stay with a TD of LSU here....they travel well....but Tigers should have a nice HF edge...............
Nice card!
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Bookmaker openers opened a few things up.............
added ................
ONE UNIT
Col St +8' BYU -2' GATORS +4
------------------
Rutgers +31'
smaller
Oreg St +3 SMU -24 UNLV -37 ----------------
Georgia -13' Irish -9 / LSU -6
Rutgers will likely stink AGAIN.....but IMO.....terrible value with UW laying 31 on this LONG road trip......Huskies (really) didn't move the chains well LY.....only 3.0/rush....17 FD...3/12 3rd down.....scored on big plays / 2 ST TD's
Georgia maybe shaky with Irish on deck..... (hence small play)....but I don't see how App St moves the ball here....and how they stop Ga running game for 4 Qtrs
*note : (maybe) poor value too....simply based on LY / past performances....10 > 12'....arguably a fair line.
Ditto with LSU / Irish.........
*kinda cheezy....like the Irish but MISSED the < 14......so looking for an excuse.... to play them maybe ha
*But....IMO....a TALL ORDER.....for BYU to stay with a TD of LSU here....they travel well....but Tigers should have a nice HF edge...............
why?......a history of FCS beat-downs.....and (weird) early season success
QB transfer from Miss St....not much doubt improved in year 2 under Withers......The Belt will still be too much probably...so whaddya do?......take it out on the Huskies of course....in just year 3-4 of existence.....they probably won't mind another azz-whoopin
note: LY recall somehow beat Ohio THERE....few years back beat Houston and S Miss....................
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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I'll throw in as smaller play....
TEXAS ST -14
why?......a history of FCS beat-downs.....and (weird) early season success
QB transfer from Miss St....not much doubt improved in year 2 under Withers......The Belt will still be too much probably...so whaddya do?......take it out on the Huskies of course....in just year 3-4 of existence.....they probably won't mind another azz-whoopin
UNLV?....getting better under Sanchez each year....but wear down / fade LATE....their one opportunity each year to pound somebody.....what happens? 2016 vs Jackson St.....won 63-13 (-37) 2015 vs Idaho St........won 80-8 (-14) * Guess what.....Howard SUX....and will get slaughtered here...does it appear likely Tony will call off the dogs?.........
FYI : This team needs to make a statement and set the tone for the season. i would love to see a beatdown here.
Fla/Mich
- i would not wanna play the Gators week 1.
- Bowls game are a differnet animal than week 1 games.
- SEC team as underdogg week 1 rule.
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UNLV?....getting better under Sanchez each year....but wear down / fade LATE....their one opportunity each year to pound somebody.....what happens? 2016 vs Jackson St.....won 63-13 (-37) 2015 vs Idaho St........won 80-8 (-14) * Guess what.....Howard SUX....and will get slaughtered here...does it appear likely Tony will call off the dogs?.........
FYI : This team needs to make a statement and set the tone for the season. i would love to see a beatdown here.
Fla/Mich
- i would not wanna play the Gators week 1.
- Bowls game are a differnet animal than week 1 games.
BA, I ignored the web yesterday and this morning. I'm trying to get my golf game decent. And I wanted a break. My golf game didn't do well. I had no solid.
I was surprised to see Air Force -31 today. Shocked! I'm fine @Air Force -22.5. and glad I got it. Probably just play the 1 unit and not add at that at that price. All my plays are up 1 or 2 pts. but very curious with 2 months to go? Not looking to buy out on any.
I did play Tx. +1 @ Baylor on the GOY today. My best thought is that Baylor has had major attrition and limited good recruiting. Tx. is deeper and wins this. Big 12 is tough this year but I think Tx. gets it done.
Stay Hard, Doc
Backed off of AF.....haven't done as well as I thought the last 5 (Morgan St notwithstanding)....probably still works....that VMI is TINY on D....wish I had hit the early # on Mizzou.....
*not a great spot for Horns.....off Okie St < OU < Kan St.....with at TCU on deck....but I would be surprised if they lose to Baylor.....but don't be shocked if the Bears are much better than folks think.....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
BA, I ignored the web yesterday and this morning. I'm trying to get my golf game decent. And I wanted a break. My golf game didn't do well. I had no solid.
I was surprised to see Air Force -31 today. Shocked! I'm fine @Air Force -22.5. and glad I got it. Probably just play the 1 unit and not add at that at that price. All my plays are up 1 or 2 pts. but very curious with 2 months to go? Not looking to buy out on any.
I did play Tx. +1 @ Baylor on the GOY today. My best thought is that Baylor has had major attrition and limited good recruiting. Tx. is deeper and wins this. Big 12 is tough this year but I think Tx. gets it done.
Stay Hard, Doc
Backed off of AF.....haven't done as well as I thought the last 5 (Morgan St notwithstanding)....probably still works....that VMI is TINY on D....wish I had hit the early # on Mizzou.....
*not a great spot for Horns.....off Okie St < OU < Kan St.....with at TCU on deck....but I would be surprised if they lose to Baylor.....but don't be shocked if the Bears are much better than folks think.....
UNLV?....getting better under Sanchez each year....but wear down / fade LATE....their one opportunity each year to pound somebody.....what happens? 2016 vs Jackson St.....won 63-13 (-37) 2015 vs Idaho St........won 80-8 (-14) * Guess what.....Howard SUX....and will get slaughtered here...does it appear likely Tony will call off the dogs?.........
FYI : This team needs to make a statement and set the tone for the season. i would love to see a beatdown here.
Fla/Mich
- i would not wanna play the Gators week 1.
- Bowls game are a differnet animal than week 1 games.
- SEC team as underdogg week 1 rule.
THERE HE IS......................
Gators / Mich maybe a good one to pass on.......but I'm loving this SEC is overrated......check out that Big10!......as I watched every second of each bowl....> ie. what happens when they step out of that comfy Big10........(even really liked Iowa)......but CAREFUL examination.....suggests this one should be pick-em / Fla maybe a small favorite................
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by QBoption:
UNLV?....getting better under Sanchez each year....but wear down / fade LATE....their one opportunity each year to pound somebody.....what happens? 2016 vs Jackson St.....won 63-13 (-37) 2015 vs Idaho St........won 80-8 (-14) * Guess what.....Howard SUX....and will get slaughtered here...does it appear likely Tony will call off the dogs?.........
FYI : This team needs to make a statement and set the tone for the season. i would love to see a beatdown here.
Fla/Mich
- i would not wanna play the Gators week 1.
- Bowls game are a differnet animal than week 1 games.
- SEC team as underdogg week 1 rule.
THERE HE IS......................
Gators / Mich maybe a good one to pass on.......but I'm loving this SEC is overrated......check out that Big10!......as I watched every second of each bowl....> ie. what happens when they step out of that comfy Big10........(even really liked Iowa)......but CAREFUL examination.....suggests this one should be pick-em / Fla maybe a small favorite................
BTW........LHH......if you recall it was me that came to your defense LY...........all that was so SILLY.......
* I'm not a statistics guy.....3 picks / week is perfectly fine....but ain't near enough to draw ANY conclusions......not sure what the (statistically significant) number is......but at that rate several years no doubt.....before you reach your true 'mean' or average %
MORAL?.............RELAX.....as you will have great years.....bad years....and a few average years.......
*as each year passes.....then declaring you a genius....an idiot....or average....would be kinda ridiculous dontcha think?............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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BTW........LHH......if you recall it was me that came to your defense LY...........all that was so SILLY.......
* I'm not a statistics guy.....3 picks / week is perfectly fine....but ain't near enough to draw ANY conclusions......not sure what the (statistically significant) number is......but at that rate several years no doubt.....before you reach your true 'mean' or average %
MORAL?.............RELAX.....as you will have great years.....bad years....and a few average years.......
*as each year passes.....then declaring you a genius....an idiot....or average....would be kinda ridiculous dontcha think?............
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
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You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
WMU should take a huge step back , Middle of the POack in the MAC ????
USC should put up some points , I would lean on the Team total Over before laying over 24 .....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
WMU should take a huge step back , Middle of the POack in the MAC ????
USC should put up some points , I would lean on the Team total Over before laying over 24 .....
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
I think I have a solid plan for dealing with these games...
* big point-spread
$$ Will the dog....possibly in line for an azz whoopin'.....have the FULL FOCUS.....of the favored team?
*in this case.............HELLL NO......biggest GOY on deck with Stanford........THEN Texas
note: it makes no difference what WMich has going on.....you pass
* also.....even if USC wins 50-0....you stay with the plan
AGAIN: don't think GAME DAY......as what 99.5% do < they're wrong......but the week of preparation.....mindset of coaches / players.......you think the USC players are taking WM seriously here?.........where not one (in their minds) WM player could play for them?.....USC coaches working on Tree already?.....you bet
*Wisky (shoulda) killed these guys (terrible run D)
So play WM here?........nope
* impossible to say how they respond with losing PJ......
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
I think I have a solid plan for dealing with these games...
* big point-spread
$$ Will the dog....possibly in line for an azz whoopin'.....have the FULL FOCUS.....of the favored team?
*in this case.............HELLL NO......biggest GOY on deck with Stanford........THEN Texas
note: it makes no difference what WMich has going on.....you pass
* also.....even if USC wins 50-0....you stay with the plan
AGAIN: don't think GAME DAY......as what 99.5% do < they're wrong......but the week of preparation.....mindset of coaches / players.......you think the USC players are taking WM seriously here?.........where not one (in their minds) WM player could play for them?.....USC coaches working on Tree already?.....you bet
*Wisky (shoulda) killed these guys (terrible run D)
So play WM here?........nope
* impossible to say how they respond with losing PJ......
BA, You must have a photographic memory to remember my 3 game love affair with "In. Word" (the ugliest girl in the class) from 2 yrs. ago. Got to get way below the radar sometimes. Below sonar sometimes. Hey, those FCS games count just like any others. There are a few guys on the Forum that know this stuff pretty well.
I don't think you mentioned the danger of the parlay. The old saying is 2 teams is a bet and 3 teams is a gift. Friends and co-workers know I wager and win more than lose so every week they ask for advice. I may stop giving advice. I'll give them my favorite plays or my best thoughts on games they like and then beg them not to parlay. Parlaying is so seductive. They don't seem to be able to resist "easy money". Replace "easy" with "dumb" and your closer to the truth.
I do play some fun parlays but with small expectations. Gotta do something with those mid week snore fests, right?
Keep Musing, Doc
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BA, You must have a photographic memory to remember my 3 game love affair with "In. Word" (the ugliest girl in the class) from 2 yrs. ago. Got to get way below the radar sometimes. Below sonar sometimes. Hey, those FCS games count just like any others. There are a few guys on the Forum that know this stuff pretty well.
I don't think you mentioned the danger of the parlay. The old saying is 2 teams is a bet and 3 teams is a gift. Friends and co-workers know I wager and win more than lose so every week they ask for advice. I may stop giving advice. I'll give them my favorite plays or my best thoughts on games they like and then beg them not to parlay. Parlaying is so seductive. They don't seem to be able to resist "easy money". Replace "easy" with "dumb" and your closer to the truth.
I do play some fun parlays but with small expectations. Gotta do something with those mid week snore fests, right?
BA, You must have a photographic memory to remember my 3 game love affair with "In. Word" (the ugliest girl in the class) from 2 yrs. ago. Got to get way below the radar sometimes. Below sonar sometimes. Hey, those FCS games count just like any others. There are a few guys on the Forum that know this stuff pretty well.
I don't think you mentioned the danger of the parlay. The old saying is 2 teams is a bet and 3 teams is a gift. Friends and co-workers know I wager and win more than lose so every week they ask for advice. I may stop giving advice. I'll give them my favorite plays or my best thoughts on games they like and then beg them not to parlay. Parlaying is so seductive. They don't seem to be able to resist "easy money". Replace "easy" with "dumb" and your closer to the truth.
I do play some fun parlays but with small expectations. Gotta do something with those mid week snore fests, right?
Keep Musing, Doc
I agree on parlays.....guys with the necessary discipline to follow the 'rules'......SLOWLY build their bankroll.......usually aren't drawn to gambling...........
* and of course....the personality traits that drive guys to gamble.....aren't conducive AT ALL.....to being patient.....ultra conservative ...........
SO......the lure of EASY money >> the PARLAY.......
* I in fact have a weakness.....for the 'can't lose'......ML parlay.....and have done well with the OPEN ENDED 5Dimes parlay
Maybe keep your bankroll (where you make your 'serious wagers')......in 1-2 books.....then some play money (separate from your BR) in another book ......like 5Dimes for eggzample
*that way you can jack around a bit > not worry about it ...
Shakey..........good man and BOL this year.......
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
BA, You must have a photographic memory to remember my 3 game love affair with "In. Word" (the ugliest girl in the class) from 2 yrs. ago. Got to get way below the radar sometimes. Below sonar sometimes. Hey, those FCS games count just like any others. There are a few guys on the Forum that know this stuff pretty well.
I don't think you mentioned the danger of the parlay. The old saying is 2 teams is a bet and 3 teams is a gift. Friends and co-workers know I wager and win more than lose so every week they ask for advice. I may stop giving advice. I'll give them my favorite plays or my best thoughts on games they like and then beg them not to parlay. Parlaying is so seductive. They don't seem to be able to resist "easy money". Replace "easy" with "dumb" and your closer to the truth.
I do play some fun parlays but with small expectations. Gotta do something with those mid week snore fests, right?
Keep Musing, Doc
I agree on parlays.....guys with the necessary discipline to follow the 'rules'......SLOWLY build their bankroll.......usually aren't drawn to gambling...........
* and of course....the personality traits that drive guys to gamble.....aren't conducive AT ALL.....to being patient.....ultra conservative ...........
SO......the lure of EASY money >> the PARLAY.......
* I in fact have a weakness.....for the 'can't lose'......ML parlay.....and have done well with the OPEN ENDED 5Dimes parlay
Maybe keep your bankroll (where you make your 'serious wagers')......in 1-2 books.....then some play money (separate from your BR) in another book ......like 5Dimes for eggzample
*that way you can jack around a bit > not worry about it ...
BA, Just a quick thought. The Books win every week. They get the Vig no matter what. They literally can't lose with a 10% free play going in. It's mathematically impossible not to win, no matter what. These guys overhead isn't that much. I'm not breaking new news to you.
The big pay off for the books is parlays. They win on the straight bet but really clean up on parlays.
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BA, Just a quick thought. The Books win every week. They get the Vig no matter what. They literally can't lose with a 10% free play going in. It's mathematically impossible not to win, no matter what. These guys overhead isn't that much. I'm not breaking new news to you.
The big pay off for the books is parlays. They win on the straight bet but really clean up on parlays.
I have been sitting back quietly and listening my friend, (surprise surprise! ;) and I am ready as I can be for this season at this point. You did make me go back and reflect on a few things that made me say "what I am doing here" so I am very grateful for your help/insights as usual.
I am also debating if I am going to go back to doing a thread or not, so I guess we will see what transpires.
Hope all is well with you in the great State of Texas. Not much has changed in my world. I am still floating between Puerto Vallarta, Mx, Cartagena, Colombia and Aruba being my free spirited self and doing what I do best! ;)
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
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I have been sitting back quietly and listening my friend, (surprise surprise! ;) and I am ready as I can be for this season at this point. You did make me go back and reflect on a few things that made me say "what I am doing here" so I am very grateful for your help/insights as usual.
I am also debating if I am going to go back to doing a thread or not, so I guess we will see what transpires.
Hope all is well with you in the great State of Texas. Not much has changed in my world. I am still floating between Puerto Vallarta, Mx, Cartagena, Colombia and Aruba being my free spirited self and doing what I do best! ;)
mws, I've been curious about the math on parlays vs. the standard -110. Thanks. It's obvious you pay less than -110 for a parlay because the payoff is greater the more teams you play. That 6.1 is interesting. Didn't think it would be that low. Are you a fan of the parlay?
Doc
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mws, I've been curious about the math on parlays vs. the standard -110. Thanks. It's obvious you pay less than -110 for a parlay because the payoff is greater the more teams you play. That 6.1 is interesting. Didn't think it would be that low. Are you a fan of the parlay?
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
Western MICH takes a huge step backwards.....They will miss QB Zach Terrell who threw for 3500+ YDS - 69% complete % and threw 33 TDS and only 4 INTS.....He was more valuable than HC PJ Fleck....They bring in a SO. QB with no playing EXP. Their running game should still be ok but it wont be as easy when opposing defenses not being locked in on the passing game....They bring back their top 5 tacklers on "D" but lose their best pass rusher and playmaker in Keion Adams.....They avoid Miami OH and Ohio in CONF play at will win 8 games having a weak MAC schedule......This team will not resemble the team of last season...
Nobody needs to be told that USC has the talent to dominate every aspect of this game.....
in 2015 under USC coach Clay Helton they played Idaho with Stanford on deck and won the game 59-9. Last season under Helton they played Utah ST with Stanford on deck and won 45-10.
Western Michigan has to fly cross country in the season opener to play a national champion contender (with Stanford on deck) and I think this game gets real ugly, real quick for WM.
Would agree with BA that it would be a bad idea to play W.M. in this spot.
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Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :
You brought up USC.... I haven't seen a single person talk about this game yet. IDK if I can play them at -24, looks about right to me. But Western Michigan looks absolutely ripe for a BIG letdown this year. Especially week one. They get down early in this game and maybe they just fall apart.... Or maybe it's solidarity and they hold, idk
Just my thoughts.
Would love to hear yours on the subject??
Western MICH takes a huge step backwards.....They will miss QB Zach Terrell who threw for 3500+ YDS - 69% complete % and threw 33 TDS and only 4 INTS.....He was more valuable than HC PJ Fleck....They bring in a SO. QB with no playing EXP. Their running game should still be ok but it wont be as easy when opposing defenses not being locked in on the passing game....They bring back their top 5 tacklers on "D" but lose their best pass rusher and playmaker in Keion Adams.....They avoid Miami OH and Ohio in CONF play at will win 8 games having a weak MAC schedule......This team will not resemble the team of last season...
Nobody needs to be told that USC has the talent to dominate every aspect of this game.....
in 2015 under USC coach Clay Helton they played Idaho with Stanford on deck and won the game 59-9. Last season under Helton they played Utah ST with Stanford on deck and won 45-10.
Western Michigan has to fly cross country in the season opener to play a national champion contender (with Stanford on deck) and I think this game gets real ugly, real quick for WM.
Would agree with BA that it would be a bad idea to play W.M. in this spot.
strong leans / will prolly add soon....YEP waited too late
Iowa State......a HUGE (night) game for them.....finished 2016 a MUCH better team.....N Iowa a tough team no doubt (most of D is back / lose QB / RB).....but they don't have much to prove here....totally shut down ISU LY (won 25-20).....now off 6-5 / need to get ready for conf play..
* ISU O should be fairly strong this year.....I think this is a nice spot for a ' feel good home romp'.....taking them into Iowa game with some confidence......more of a HUNCH admittedly
E Carolina........why?
*this one is an absolute MUST WIN......for James Madison?.......won't matter at all
next week?......at WV
Va Tech
USF
Temple....likely 2-3 / needing a W
at UCF
BYU
at Houston
at UConn
Tulane
Cinn
at Memphis
ECaro was (probably) better than we think......to lose here with that nasty run on deck would be CRUSHING.....best chance for a W vs Temple......until NOV 4th/ week 10 ???
maybe.......New Mex St.....Wyoming at 14.....S Caro.....Fla St ....FAU maybe at 14
* love to play Akron....but they've been terrible in this early spot
.....idea / reminder......I hate those -120 5Dimes more than anybody......BUT if you're SURE you're getting nice value...maybe it's not so bad ....you're just betting an 'alternate line'
meaning I had at -120 :
SMU -24......same as buying 1/2 point down from 24'.....line is now 27 seems like.....I think it should be 30ish.....so (arguably) not a bad deal......kinda getting 3 points / only costing me a dime
*bringing 27 down to 24....ordinarily would cost you....-170 or so
UNLV -37.....same deal.....now 42 it seems like.....so not bad
* so if I wanted 37 NOW.....juice might be -210..........
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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strong leans / will prolly add soon....YEP waited too late
Iowa State......a HUGE (night) game for them.....finished 2016 a MUCH better team.....N Iowa a tough team no doubt (most of D is back / lose QB / RB).....but they don't have much to prove here....totally shut down ISU LY (won 25-20).....now off 6-5 / need to get ready for conf play..
* ISU O should be fairly strong this year.....I think this is a nice spot for a ' feel good home romp'.....taking them into Iowa game with some confidence......more of a HUNCH admittedly
E Carolina........why?
*this one is an absolute MUST WIN......for James Madison?.......won't matter at all
next week?......at WV
Va Tech
USF
Temple....likely 2-3 / needing a W
at UCF
BYU
at Houston
at UConn
Tulane
Cinn
at Memphis
ECaro was (probably) better than we think......to lose here with that nasty run on deck would be CRUSHING.....best chance for a W vs Temple......until NOV 4th/ week 10 ???
maybe.......New Mex St.....Wyoming at 14.....S Caro.....Fla St ....FAU maybe at 14
* love to play Akron....but they've been terrible in this early spot
.....idea / reminder......I hate those -120 5Dimes more than anybody......BUT if you're SURE you're getting nice value...maybe it's not so bad ....you're just betting an 'alternate line'
meaning I had at -120 :
SMU -24......same as buying 1/2 point down from 24'.....line is now 27 seems like.....I think it should be 30ish.....so (arguably) not a bad deal......kinda getting 3 points / only costing me a dime
*bringing 27 down to 24....ordinarily would cost you....-170 or so
UNLV -37.....same deal.....now 42 it seems like.....so not bad
* so if I wanted 37 NOW.....juice might be -210..........
BA, the last GOY I've played was N. Dame -7 @ B. C. After reading B. Connelly's take on both teams and the fact he thinks S&P makes N. Dame -14, I'm counting on the spread to rise by game time. N. Dame has best players all over the place. I wouldn't think to many let down games for the Irish ( especially early) with all the close losses last year.
The game I'm more curious about is N. Dakota +26.5 @ Utah. Does that look like a TD to much to you? Where do you see the motivation? Utah so tough @ home?
Like your leans on ISU and ECU. Probably would go with ISU first.
Stay Hard, Doc
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BA, the last GOY I've played was N. Dame -7 @ B. C. After reading B. Connelly's take on both teams and the fact he thinks S&P makes N. Dame -14, I'm counting on the spread to rise by game time. N. Dame has best players all over the place. I wouldn't think to many let down games for the Irish ( especially early) with all the close losses last year.
The game I'm more curious about is N. Dakota +26.5 @ Utah. Does that look like a TD to much to you? Where do you see the motivation? Utah so tough @ home?
Like your leans on ISU and ECU. Probably would go with ISU first.
BA just something to think about in the UNI vs ISU game...UNI roster is usually filled with Iowa kids who wanted an ISU scholarship offer but it never came, so these guys get jacked up to play the cyclones and prove them wrong, so I disagree when you say UNI has nothing to prove.
ISU has big advantage in skill positions but matchup in the trenches is probably pretty equal. I will be staying far away from this game.
0
BA just something to think about in the UNI vs ISU game...UNI roster is usually filled with Iowa kids who wanted an ISU scholarship offer but it never came, so these guys get jacked up to play the cyclones and prove them wrong, so I disagree when you say UNI has nothing to prove.
ISU has big advantage in skill positions but matchup in the trenches is probably pretty equal. I will be staying far away from this game.
BA just something to think about in the UNI vs ISU game...UNI roster is usually filled with Iowa kids who wanted an ISU scholarship offer but it never came, so these guys get jacked up to play the cyclones and prove them wrong, so I disagree when you say UNI has nothing to prove.
ISU has big advantage in skill positions but matchup in the trenches is probably pretty equal. I will be staying far away from this game.
Gotcha......I've bet on the Panthers several times in this match-up.....Last year too......
This one is a (minor) eggzample of the greatest of all plays....the
FBABPP......the Famous BA Big Picture Play......
$ In which I have identified a factor that OVERRIDES any potential match-up issues.....that usually ONLY I can see ha.....usually involving SEASON goals....coaching styles.....etc
HERE?.......ax yourself the meaning of this game to each team.....also examine the match-up history of this one.....Iowa State gets their azz kicked one year....they often have bounce-backed nicely the next one.....my guess is UNI relaxes a bit....after proving themselves earlier....
* NOW.....a (much weaker) ISU got pushed around pretty good LY.....their O (led by Lanning / now MLB wtf) was totally embarrassed......but with the emergence of QB Park.....not bad at season's end (6.6/play vs Kan St.....7.2/play vs WV)
SO....ISU (should) come into this one .....THIS TIME.....with the EDGE.......not UNI as usual...
* they're confident...bring some MO....desperately need a nice W here....UNI?....limping in off a 6-5.....with a tough D sure.....but an O that shouldn't be able to take advantage of ISU's weakness....their D......
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
0
Quote Originally Posted by teejy:
BA just something to think about in the UNI vs ISU game...UNI roster is usually filled with Iowa kids who wanted an ISU scholarship offer but it never came, so these guys get jacked up to play the cyclones and prove them wrong, so I disagree when you say UNI has nothing to prove.
ISU has big advantage in skill positions but matchup in the trenches is probably pretty equal. I will be staying far away from this game.
Gotcha......I've bet on the Panthers several times in this match-up.....Last year too......
This one is a (minor) eggzample of the greatest of all plays....the
FBABPP......the Famous BA Big Picture Play......
$ In which I have identified a factor that OVERRIDES any potential match-up issues.....that usually ONLY I can see ha.....usually involving SEASON goals....coaching styles.....etc
HERE?.......ax yourself the meaning of this game to each team.....also examine the match-up history of this one.....Iowa State gets their azz kicked one year....they often have bounce-backed nicely the next one.....my guess is UNI relaxes a bit....after proving themselves earlier....
* NOW.....a (much weaker) ISU got pushed around pretty good LY.....their O (led by Lanning / now MLB wtf) was totally embarrassed......but with the emergence of QB Park.....not bad at season's end (6.6/play vs Kan St.....7.2/play vs WV)
SO....ISU (should) come into this one .....THIS TIME.....with the EDGE.......not UNI as usual...
* they're confident...bring some MO....desperately need a nice W here....UNI?....limping in off a 6-5.....with a tough D sure.....but an O that shouldn't be able to take advantage of ISU's weakness....their D......
BA, the last GOY I've played was N. Dame -7 @ B. C. After reading B. Connelly's take on both teams and the fact he thinks S&P makes N. Dame -14, I'm counting on the spread to rise by game time. N. Dame has best players all over the place. I wouldn't think to many let down games for the Irish ( especially early) with all the close losses last year.
The game I'm more curious about is N. Dakota +26.5 @ Utah. Does that look like a TD to much to you? Where do you see the motivation? Utah so tough @ home?
Like your leans on ISU and ECU. Probably would go with ISU first.
Stay Hard, Doc
That's an interesting one for sure.......
* the Fighting Hawks aren't bad....off 9-3 / #7 seed seems like... 9/6 st (including good QB + 2 good RB's).....and have played FBS schools tough mostly.....
THE #1 thing in these match-ups.......absolutely incredible most ignore this BTW....is how does the big school HC regard these games?.....> .as a scrimmage......or...a chance for a (hard to come by) W......or... even a (rare) chance to kick the crap outta somebody...
*Utah covers....or comes close usually.....seems like Whittingham stresses D.......24-0 (-28).......56-14 (-41)....70-7 (-22')......41-0 (-42)......so something to look into.....pass for me probably.......
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
BA, the last GOY I've played was N. Dame -7 @ B. C. After reading B. Connelly's take on both teams and the fact he thinks S&P makes N. Dame -14, I'm counting on the spread to rise by game time. N. Dame has best players all over the place. I wouldn't think to many let down games for the Irish ( especially early) with all the close losses last year.
The game I'm more curious about is N. Dakota +26.5 @ Utah. Does that look like a TD to much to you? Where do you see the motivation? Utah so tough @ home?
Like your leans on ISU and ECU. Probably would go with ISU first.
Stay Hard, Doc
That's an interesting one for sure.......
* the Fighting Hawks aren't bad....off 9-3 / #7 seed seems like... 9/6 st (including good QB + 2 good RB's).....and have played FBS schools tough mostly.....
THE #1 thing in these match-ups.......absolutely incredible most ignore this BTW....is how does the big school HC regard these games?.....> .as a scrimmage......or...a chance for a (hard to come by) W......or... even a (rare) chance to kick the crap outta somebody...
*Utah covers....or comes close usually.....seems like Whittingham stresses D.......24-0 (-28).......56-14 (-41)....70-7 (-22')......41-0 (-42)......so something to look into.....pass for me probably.......
Maybe keep your bankroll (where you make your 'serious wagers')......in 1-2 books.....then some play money (separate from your BR) in another book ......like 5Dimes for eggzample
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