L2T Week 9

College Football getting crazier than ever haha.....

-watched BYU game

-watched LSU game

-watched Michigan game

-watched Ole Miss-Texas 

-followed Houston-Utah play by play online..... 

Picked up some good intel on many teams for sure and will post my road to the PLAYOFFS important games to come list when I get a chance.....hoping to Survive NFL Survivor this week... only 9 guys left and big money on the line ...believe or not, I picked the 2-4 JETS and they are losing ....revenge game and all ! No way was I picked Houston on that big spread with Harbaugh coaching Giants and that is why there are only 9 guys left after 185 in the pool!! Big spreads are losing every week

8 - 6  Week 8 (made $45 profit

SEASON RECORD = 36 - 29  Totals/Sides

Parlays > greater than $2800 profit (good week > made over $800 on $5 four way parlays) >> will continue to post my soccer suggestion mixers and ML plays I like in NCAAF...might scale back this week and go 3 way plays for $10 and less of them

Play preference (no play yet) - Texas Under 50.5 < would prefer 51 or more so toe in the water and shop for higher number

(reference LSU game for likely result + more pts for Texas variability in motivation but still need to be with 2 losses)

-Miss St have to shutdown Kamario due to re-injurying...it was a very stupid move in my opinion pulling him out for a bruising encounter vs Oklahoma and then Texas ....they should have given him 2 more weeks to heal and push for a BOWL seat 

-how many points with Miss St score just with Fluff Bothwell? Not much vs a stout Texas run defense 

Give Miss St >1 TD and 3 FGs and that is being generous >> more likely they score 10-13 points 

Texas gonna score 35-38 here? > maybe/possible  >> there are still some worrying signs seeing out of Manning and more than anything, its his short passing game, not his long passing but still Texas receivers keep dropping those 

-if Sark were smart, he would get the O-Line working well together before he goes on the road to face a wicked Missouri defense that has an offense that can put up points ....don't think he needs to go for style points in this game and Miss St can still play okay defense ok

Play #1 - New Mex-SJST UNDER 41.5 @1.9 x 1U

-this team has been gold for me either on the spread or the UNDER depending the situation ... they now have 2 roadies in a row and I believe are in the mix for the P6 slot in the Playoffs if they can win out and then Boise falters ....UTSA might have something to say but NM has 2 fairly easy games and then 3 in a row that could determine their fate. 

-I don't see them piling up the points on the road and SJST defense is decent enough to prevent less than 30

- SJST will have a lot of difficulty trying to score more than 10-13 pts vs this defense!

28 - 13 score is worse case and I think it ends 26 - 13 or 24 - 10 more than likely with SJST's ability to stop the run 

out in front of the forum posting them up, let’s go 

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER TODAY (Likely Seeding): 

**darkened = undefeated

1. Miami

2. Ohio St

3. Georgia

4. Utah

---------------------------------------------

5.  UCLA

6. Indiana

7. Notre Dame 

8. BYU

9. Kentucky                  

10. Alabama (best 2 loss team)                

11. Texas Tech

12. Texas  (2nd best 2 loss team)

------------------------------------------------------------

Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

Boise - (Best ranked P6 team) > in a fight with N.Mexico, J.Madison and Liberty are close in SP+ rank and UTSA is much lower than these. If one of these 5 teams loses along the way, they are out of consideration in my opinion unless all end up with 2 losses including Boise and then maybe N.Dakota St could be considered if they win out 

Seeding below based on weighting of best win(s)

1. LSU (3rd best 2 loss team) 

2. SMU

3. NW 

4. Wake Forest

5. Arizona

6. Missouri (4th best 2 loss team)

7. Ole Miss (5th best 2 loss team) 

8. Houston (6th best 2 loss team)

9. Tennessee (7th best 2 loss team) 

10. Florida (8th best 2 loss team)  

11. Iowa (9th best 2 loss team)               

12. Oklahoma St (10th best 2 loss team)  

13. Wisconsin 

14. Nebraska 

15. USC

16. New Mexico - 1 loss P6 team     

17. Cincy

18. Minnesota

19. Virginia Tech

20. Oregon St

Next wave of impression (3 losses are out of playoff picture/ blue still maybe with 1-2 losses) > Duke, Michigan, UCF, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Mississippi St, Auburn, Washington, WVU, James Madison, Liberty, UTSA, Arizona St, Clemson, N.Carolina, B.C, Pitt, North Texas, N.Dakota St, Army, Air Force, App St, Louisiana Tech, Toledo, Ohio, Memphis

Ya, that could be good or bad 

I really want to take USC at home +6.5 with 2 losses and facing a 2nd string young Buckeye QB ..... USC will be motivated ...Maiava for sure but the Colisseum does not lend itself to big noise in the stadium I hear and USC will be jetlagged

Thoughts on that??

Tale of the Tape Week 8:

Power 4 Conference games =  12 - 15 ATS faves/  12 - 15 OVER 

Group of 6 Conference games = 16 - 13 ATS faves / 17 - 11 - 1 OVER 

can the Buckeyes just play bully ball against that soft Trojan defense like Oregon did??  Oregon has looked awful offensively against EVERYONE except the Trojans, that would be my main concern for backing Lincoln here 

Play #2 - BOSTON COLLEGE +7.5 x 1U @ 1.88

-this is a plucky team and they play Duke to 7 pts or less each year and even won won game > all this in the past 4 yrs and this team has proven to be better than some years 

- I am curious why Vegas put up this line with no injury issues to affect  B.C. offense and Duke is not a high scoring team

Play #3 - Colorado St +6 x 2U

- I am willing to bet Utah St cannot slow this offense enough and score enough themselves to keep ahead by a TD ....... Rams got their main QB back last week and he was in fine form with 333 yds and TDs 

- sure, Utah St will have to score more but can you hang your hat on stopping all aspects of this Rams offense when they can run the ball also??

Got +6.5 when I laid it.... I wonder if it goes up to +7?

hauss hejny is a great watch. i love our qb, but was sad to see hauss go.

What do you make of that line?

i haven't seen the total, but unless it is like 80 i would be thinking over. csu scores like crazy and can't stop anyone. don't know much about utah st.

yeah it looks like utah st games have been low scoring. i just can't see anyone not being able to score on the csu d right now, and don't see usu stopping them. i think i like the spread and the over. good luck.

You saw what I saw then.....thanks Sandman 

You have to ask yourself, why is the total so low then?? Say Utah St scores on every drive but stall once in a while ....we are looking at 34-37 pts ..... can Col St be held to 27-30 pts?? Excellent coach but obviously their defense is a work in progress for next year ...start with a offensive culture

I see Utah St hitting that number I suggested and perhaps a tad lower but that defense is not a world beater either but with the crowd..... so that is why the +6.5 felt right rather than a total 

Hejny can move the chains with his arm, or his legs. I like side here a lot

Play #4 - Buckeyes - USC UNDER 50.5 x 2U << if this rises, I'll shop for more 

Three questions should be asked:

1. How dialed up is the Buckeye defense going to be?  (#1 defense in SP+)...... knowing they have to keep the lead down for their freshman QB to not feel the pressure?

-this the strongest QB the Buckeyes will have faced this season!

2. How will Day managed his offensive plan knowing that the kid when thrown into some playing time, likes to sling it down the field as evidenced by the results vs two MAC teams, but has a penchant for being picked off??

-USC is strong vs the run this season and only allowed Joseph QB of Wisky to throw 58 yds 

3. How many points above 17 can USC put up on this Buckeyes defense??? 

-if you think they can get 21-24, then do the Buckeyes put up 28-31?

I think we don't know how well the kid at QB will play with the bright lights on and a strong QB on the other side of the ball so my suspicion is, DAY will keep the first half tight and adjust at halftime depending on the score at half....

I see the Buckeyes going to -7.5 tonight and that leads me to believe, smart money is reasoning a score of 24 - 13 or 24 -14 for that line to move in that direction .... over a key number 

REMEMBER.... in my opinion at 1 loss and 2 losses, these two teams are playing for their lives and if USC can open this up a little and get the lead, that behooves their defense to buckle down that much more and they have shown some talent occasionally

-USC is out of the playoff picture with a third loss but you gotta think they are rubbing their hands together facing a Freshman QB thinking they have a chance....look at how Carr was in his game for Michigan if you watched ....Bo Jackson at RB is hurting a little too

I think I am going to "park the bus" the rest of the week....and just watch lines and totals all week ..... and read other threads....do the SP+ matchups and see if there are some mistakes

I plan on doing some parlays this week also but I have a rule to not include my Side or Totals plays in my parlays since you can really deepen your losses if you poor picking week

I like the first half UNDER as well Train but I tend to go full game plays due to 'enjoying the rollercoaster' of scoring swings.... 

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose .....like the LSU game on Saturday....41 pts the first half, only 10 pts in the second half until the last 40 seconds and then my 51.5/52.5 UNDERS were kaput!

One more thing....I expect Smith #4 to be double/triple teamed adding to the frustration factor in amping up the Freshman in trying to force a pass into Smith's hands adding to turnover potential..... for sure DAY will have Smith as #2 or #3 read on most plays to other players and the kid has shown a pattern of slinging and INTs so.... 

BUCKEYES-USC game > I am buying Winning Margin in BET365 as well today probably but not offical plays 

Ohio St win by 1 - 6 pays +425  > lean on this one 2U likely since I figure USC gonna fight with Maiava keeping them in the game on familiar ground at the colisseum

Ohio St wins by 7 - 12 pays +400 > 1U probably 

USC win by 1 - 6 (small hedge) pays +475 > HALF U

Still mulling and watching lines this week ...maybe not today

I like your BC play, I think I will tail you on that one. Im not seeing much I like this week. I only made 2 bets so far and just looking through all the games I dont know if I even will end up with any more

Good luck L2T.  

And let's face it, the crowds at USC's home games haven't exactly provided any kind of home field advantage this season. OSU can FG their way to a cover in this one. If anything, the boo birds will be ready to jump all over Riley.

Its a tough week somewhat ....gotta wait for line movement and just spend time sifting and doing homework ....learning about what angles other having and checking/re-checking data

How'd ya do last week? I looked for your thread but as usual, stuff gets buried on Saturdays

That's a great point ....but what better thing to do if you are a scout in the NFL to come to sunny Cali and let Jordan Maiava know you are kicking around ....there is that factor and I suspect we see USC move a lot of drives to the middle of field or 35 yd line of the Buckeyes but leave FG chances only ....another thing I factored in > 3 FGS and MAYBE 1 TD ....Lincoln will also likely gamble onf 4th down hoping for a catch or penalty if he gets to within 5 - 12 yd line and then leave the Buckeyes swimming upstream if he doesn't convert....there is THAT to the strategy here

I see ZERO reason for the BUCKEYES to be feeble on defense

@Last2thirst

 Bol this week L2T