L2T Week 2 Angles and Picks

Too bad I missed the weekend watching Saturday!! These first few weeks are important to eyetest as many teams as possible.

Week 0 = 0-1  (1 Unit Plays) 0 - 1 (Half U Plays)

Week 1 = 2 - 1 (1 U Plays) 4 - 4 (Half U Plays) 1 - 2 (Half U teasers)

** soccer keys were terrible so parlays were losing money

*** tested BIG10 stat with Half U plays going only 3 - 15 ATS the past two seasons against other P6 or P4 teams but only got a result in week 1 this year of 3 - 3 

Overall ATS/Totals = 6 - 7  (-1U) 

Watched Irish and picked up some impressions for sure....they were holding back and Carr initally was ok but was super impressive in the second half and their blocking got better ....it looks like other teams are gonna RUN on them because that secondary is something! USC found their defensive stride but the jury is out on how they will fare on the road..... I want to see how Vegas approaches their lines on the road. I don't think Michigan can rise out of this game and overpower/get revenge on Oklahoma and Mateer + the speed that the Sooners have ....this will be a great game to watch as well as Texas - Ohio St.

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Haven't looked at Week 2 lines yet but will shortly since I am done my look back and spreadsheeted 2024 and 2025 Week 2 results..... will have some comments and potential angles on this shortly.

I do know, that my focus will likely be on the POWER 4 teams in my betting and will once again, rely on following some astute older cappers and maybe a new guy's angle hear and there..... enjoying seeing who breaks out and starts well this season! 

Some interesting things have come up on 'winning outright dogs' in Week 2 for 2024 and 2025 but before I get into that, here is the data for Week 1 with this in mind:

Week 1

2025

- P4 teams > 1 lost outright ATS as fave (SEC school)  >> 2026 = 4 (Oklahoma St/Georgia Tech/Rutgers/TCU)

- P6 teams > 2 lost outright (including 1 vs a 1A school) >> 2026 = not tracking but see at least 3+

2024

-P4 teams > 4 lost outright as fave  (2 were SEC schools)

-P6 teams > 7 lost outright as faves including 

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Week 2 > losing outright faves for 2025 + 2024:

2025

- P4 teams > 5 lost outright ATS as fave (SEC school)  

- P6 teams > 6 lost outright 

2024

-P4 teams > 12 lost outright as fave including Irish in that number  

-P6 teams > 10 lost outright as faves including 3 teams to 1A schools!

Moral of the data story.....go easy in WEEK 2 and put in the time to find a great ML situation to press and your odds are pretty good

Scram tout!!

P4 favoritess and Spreads vs competition (WEEK 2): - combined 2024-25 season stats

-3 or less >  P4 favorites = 2 - 8 - 1 ATS

-3.5 to -6.5 >  5 - 4  ATS 

-7 to -10.5 >  1 - 5 - 1 ATS

Record for Spreads below - 11 >  8 - 17 - 1 ATS

-11 to -14.5 >  1 - 3 ATS 

-15 to -18.5 >  4 - 7 ATS 

-19 to -23.5 >  4 - 4 ATS 

-24 to -28.5 >  7 - 4 - 1 ATS 

-29 to -34.5 >  8 - 5  ATS 

-35 to -40.5 > 5 - 4 ATS 

-41 to -48.5 > 5 - 10 ATS 

-49+  > 1 - 2  ATS 

P4 Teams Overall Week 2 for 2024 and 2025 = 43 - 56 ATS  << INCLUDING 17 Power 4 teams who lost outright in Week#2 

Thought I would share.....tread carefully, or do you go against the worst stats and see a positive return??

By Conference - Week 2 Records (Combined 2024 and 2025):

Big 10 = 19 - 14 - 1 ATS vs all types of Conferences 

SEC     = 14 - 18 ATS   (4 - 6 ATS vs Power 6 teams)

ACC     = 14 - 17 - 3 ATS  (including 4 teams who lost outright and won outright as Dogs)

BIG12  = 13 - 16 - 2 ATS   (including 5 teams who lost outright as faves and 2 teams winning outright as Dogs)

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Best records Week 2 for Power 4 Teams - ATS (over last 2 years):

B1G10 2 - 0 TEAMS:

Ohio St, Indiana, USC, Illinois < includes one game outright as dog

Nebraska, Minnesota  

SEC 2 - 0 TEAMS:

Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Missouri

ACC 2 - 0 TEAMS:

Boston College, Pittsburgh

B1G12 2 - 0 TEAMS:

BYU < includes outright win as a dog 

Houston, UCF, Baylor, Arizona St. 

Worst Power 4 WEEK 2 Teams last 2 yrs ATS: > Michigan, Penn St, Maryland, UCLA, Georgia, TexasAm, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Miss St., Miami, SMU, VTech, Stanford, Texas Tech, WVU, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Kansas, Cincinnatti, 

Now i will have a look at some lines....

Play #1 - TexasAM- AZST UNDER 50.5 x 1U

- I expect this to be a grinding type of game with two strong defenses setting the tone

- tough field to score points for the visitor and with a new QB and set of RBs but good offensive line, I do see AZST moving the ball at times and putting up about 10 - 17 pts on this top 10 defense 

- these are two well coached teams who respect each other ( the coaches do) so should TexAM pull away, I do not see them running up the score late in the 4th Q, but I do see their Top 10 defense continuing to challenge ARST and not allow them to score easy points even with second string

- Texas AM brings back one of the 15 best returning production as a team 

- 31 TO 34 pts max for Texas AM but would not be surprised to see this strong and well coached AZST defense keep the AM number in the high 20's 

-Texas AM is 0 - 2 ATS in Week 2 the last 2 yrs so I did not want to take their side 

Predicted scores = 31 - 17 or 28 - 13

Play #2 - Michigan - Oklahoma Under 43.5 x HALF U

-potential slobberknocker 

- Mateer should be able to move the ball but likely not finish too many drives so I can see Oklahoma with 23 pts max > 2 TDs and 3 FGs on this Michigan defense at home

-Oklahoma's defense is rated better than Michigan's in SP+ and I highly doubt Michigan can somehow figure out how to unlock their offense in 7 days vs the #6 rated Defense when they had issues with #49 in WMU?

Max pts Michigan = 13-14 ....maybe 16 pts > 1 TD + 3 FGs 

Final score 23 - 16 Oklahoma.... strange things happen in Ann Arbor sometimes and so do I think Michigan can win?? Sure but maybe once out of 3 times they play at home with the two same teams ....and if they win, they better have an incredible defensive day so I like the UNDER that much more, but will be jumping on Oklahoma in the parlays as a mixer 

Worse case scenario > 27 - 17 Oklahoma win

History: Oklahoma won 24 - 13 at home last year

Play #3 - UCONN +12.5 x 1U

- really like the coaching move of Candle replacing Mora and they have a reload team that is going to be decently stacked on offense at the QB and RB positions with options if one does not perform..... decent defense remains but Maryland should score on them..... how good is Maryland's defense stopping a what has become a good program with 6.5 wins projected 

- I like the fact that Maryland is 0 - 2 in WEEK 2 ATS the past two seasons and will be focused on winning the game and trying to secure that rather than dominating ....they will have nerves more than likely knowing their Week 2 record

- I also like the fact that John Candle's career coaching record is 82 - 44 ....nice to have in your pocket at home and a dog with +12.5 pts 

Hunches/Sides I like at first glance: - will use in parlay wheels most likely 

WITHOUT CHECKING INJURIES, I LIKE:

Old Dominon +19.5 > they beat Penn St who is 0 - 2 ATS in week 2 and so is VTECH in week 2 and Franklin coached the former and now is inheriting the team that is 0-2 ATS in Weeks #2 the past 2 seasons

-Old Dom won by over 20 pts in a big upset last year but they have a rebult offense with a good RB and the defense has size and expected to be good so I see them hanging around and VTECH will not run up the score 

Ohio St +1.5 > SEC has to prove they can beat the BIG10 in a biggie which they have not really in the past couple/few seasons and Buckeyes with rated #1 defense and lots of weapons on offense so I expect a good game but Arch better have his A-game because I do expect him being forced to prove he can do it alone with the RBs being the focus to be shut down in my opinion.... Sayin coming in with a lot of precision shown but can he handle the heat that Texas can bring on defense? His stock of RBs will keep the Horns defense honest enough for him to make the plays expected. Deep down inside I want Texas to win BUT I don't bet with my heart unless its the Blue Jays in MLB

Minnesota +1.5 > I know Miss St is 0 - 2 ATS  in Week 2 games the past two seasons.....and Minny tends to be stronger earlier in the season than they are in the second half

UNLV UNDER 56.5 > how tired are they going to be?? I don't see them throwing the ball a lot and their defense has been good....I am thinking the -3.5 is low due to the major time zone changes from Hawaii to Texas ....if you can hold Hawaii in their home building to under 10 pts, you should be able to keep NT to about 20 pts at home despite being tired

Beavers +26.5 > a pretty good team put together here for the Ducks and yes they face a strong team that is well coached but they had to reload some positions and have a QB who is decent but not great.....Ducks will have to stop the run to keep this close and traditionally, they are tough at home when they have a good team 

Looking forward to reading some other ideas now....