Just got the call. And I really did just get the call. From my Alabama sharp on the Mizzou game

Question

I have several people I consult with on certain teams and Bama is one of them.

When Bama has a big game, I call this guy for an opinion if he has one.

When he calls me telling me a side on a Bama game? Well, that almost never happens. And when it does, I just put the bet in. Don't believe me? Suit yourself.

This isn't some "Just Got the Call!!" Thread with just a pick. I have a write-up.

So in this case, I was interested in this game and I was waffling all week on the side I liked. Initially I liked Bama. After he called me and said take Missouri +14.5, I was done thinking.

I had a long conversation with him, took notes and here is what he thinks about the game (he's not a big gambler but he knows Bama better than anyone I know and the value of a spread is not lost on him).

So here is how our conversation went (I transcribed the finer points from his mouth to your ears):

1) Bama's offense has been significantly less productive at non-home games. This is because Lane Kiffin has been helping Sims read defensive vulnerabilities before the snap at home and can easily communicate those reads when the home crowd is silent for them. On the road, Sims has looked much more lost during drives.

2) Mizzou has made a nice little season for itself out of overlooked. My guess is that, after beating Auburn in a sweaty, intense Iron Bowl, Bama will have a significant drop in emotional intensity for at least the first quarter.

3) Mizzou has an excellent pass rush with their DE's. Sending Amari Cooper deep to torch single coverage is fun, but Sims will need 3 seconds or so to see if he beat the coverage. In that time, I think the pocket will be collapsing on him, and Bama will lose the big play passes that more or less was the source of about 21 points against Auburn.

4) Alabama's secondary was exposed against Auburn. Anytime that Nick Marshall throws for 450 yards against you, you have a coverage problem. Coates beat his man routinely in that game, leading to multiple gigantic TD's. Mizzou will be looking to exploit the same weakness, and Bama may overcompensate, making running the ball easier as they reinforce the CB's.

5) Bama doesn't deserve to be giving 14 points to hardly anyone this year. They have a consistency problem, and while Lane Kiffin's exceptional offensive strategy has largely covered over the variance, Bama hasn't played a full game this year. LSU, Miss. St., Arkansas, Auburn. All wins, all by less than 14, all choppy, unnecessarily dangerous games that could've been lost. In other words, Bama could easily be 8-4 right now instead of 11-1. Their record is misleading as to their dominance.

6) Alabama's FG kicker, Griffith, has been a psycho for weeks now. I expected him to have cost us a game by now, but since he hasn't, this looks like a good spot as any for it. He flat out cannot be trusted to be consistent in clutch spots in big games. If Bama is forced to settle for FG's, he will bleed points for them.

I'll add more: Bama ATS this year? A horrendous 4-8 and that includes and OT cover of -6.5 over LSU where, one of the biggest mooses of the season for LSU backers.

Also, people look at Mizzou and say, "THEY GOT BEAT by Indiana!" I followed Indiana all year. That was a completely different team. A bad loss no doubt but nowhere near as bad a loss if it were the current Indiana team.

Then they got killed by Georgia. That was a strange spot and the 'ol "star player out/other players step up" rule was in effect as that was the first game for UGA without Gurley. Another bad loss but it wasn't the same UGA team on the field that day. They've cleaned up their act since those games. And this isn't just some normal Lazy Saturday game. This is the SEC Championship and this is quite a line when a championship of any kind is on the line.

I think I've provided enough here.

The pick (not much to think about from my end/fade away if you'd like):

MISSOURI +14.5 over BAMA

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