Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:
Hey Jimmy, Army got absolutely crushed by Temple their last 3 matches and they're on the road now. Would you still bet them at +16?
You also like LSU and Clemson as road favorites. Does laying chalk on the road not scare you?
And finally, everybody and their mothers like Tennessee. Tennessee is supposed to be very good this year and they performed well in the Bowl game. Yet the line dropped from -22 to -20.5. Fishy?
Thanks man. What was your SEC record in the Bowl games last year again?
I usually don't like playing on triple option teams when the opposition has extra time to prepare, so my Army play is a bit out-of-character for me. But overall I am very bullish on the Black Knights this season, and think they will probably go bowling.
The history between these two teams is relevant from the standpoint that Temple is a team who has some experience of successfully defending the triple option, but this is a much better Army team than those who struggled with Temple in the past.
I expect both defenses to perform well, thus, by extension, I expect a low-scoring game. The total is lined at 46.5, so oddsmakers are also expecting the game to be relatively low-scoring. And simple logic finds that points are much more valuable in low-scoring affairs.
I need 17 points to back Army. I will gladly take 17 points to back a veteran team that rates to improve significantly on both sides of the ball in a low-scoring affair. We can apply this same logic to the Tulane/Wake Forest game. What this game really boils down to is how many points can Army score? I think Army will need to score 17 to cover the 17, and I really like their chances of doing so. I look for Temple to win by a score of something like 31-21.
Road chalk is always a scary proposition so, yes, it's always a concern. I have posted extensively why I like the Clemson play so much, and it's primarily rooted in the fact that Auburn is a complete dumpster fire at the moment, with no QB and no leadership. One of their supposed defensive leaders - starting safety Stephen Roberts - was just arrested the other day for attempting to elude police, and possessing a firearm without a license.
I posted in Tideman's thread that laying DD chalk with a Les Miles team away from home is usually a recipe for disaster, so I'm making a bit of a leap of faith here. There are many things I like about this LSU squad from a coaching and personnel standpoint, and I expect a very strong showing from them in their opener against Whisky at Lambeau Field. History tells us this is probably a foolish play, so I completely understand if someone is leery of it.
I have looked at the Tennessee game quite a bit, and concluded this is one of those stay-away games. I am on the Tennessee bandwagon to a degree, but Appy State is a scrappy opponent who is certainly capable of keeping the game close if the Vols buckle a little bit under the weight of all the preseason hype. If I had to make a play, I'd lay the chalk with Tennessee.
As to the question of fishy line movement, I really haven't looked closely to see what may have accounted for the shift. Injuries or suspensions would be the first place to look.
No idea what my SEC or bowl records were, but both were very good.
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