I will have 5 units on Clemson.
I'm still holding out on an official Alabama play at this time. I'm sure I'll have one before kickoff though.
I usually make about 8-12 plays a week.
I will post some plays in this thread soon.
I really like both of those plays, but I like the 1st half UNDER better in the ND/Texas game. Regardless of who Texas trots out there to play QB, I think Charlie strong will play very conservative 1st quarter. I think he'll try to shorten that 1st half as much as possible.
As the game wears on, I think Strong will allow new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert to open up and speed up the offense as the QB grows into the game.
I did a fairly lengthy write-up off the Clemson offense versus the Auburn defense about a week ago, but my browser crashed and erased all of my work right before I was about to hit the submit button. Two of my focal points was to explain why I think Clemson's offense will be even better this season, and what a miserable failure that Kevin Steele has been as a defensive coordinator. Clemson fans will remember Steele as the guy who surrendered 70 points to West Virginia in the 2012 Orange Bowl. Yes, Venables vs. Steele is a huge mismatch in favor of Clemson.
See the following:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwP72ObXEQw
You touch on another point that I addressed in the write-up that never was, and that is the defensive line is by far the strongest unit for Auburn. The problem is that Deshaun Watson is a defensive line killer - or at least neutralizer.
Alabama's defense line was pouring through the Clemson defensive line for most of the night, but all the defensive line got for their trouble was getting very tired. Basically Watson ran them to death. If Alabama didn't have the ridiculous depth that Alabama had on the defensive line, they probably would have lost that game. So will Auburn's considerably thinner defensive line fare any better than Alabama's defensive line did? I somehow doubt that.
Basically I expect to see pretty much what we saw in the national championship game, which is that Watson will easily elude Auburn's defensive linemen, and get them very winded. If the game is not already out-of-hand by the 4th quarter, look for Clemson's offense to have a big one.
Alabama's QB Situation
I want to give my thoughts on the Alabama QB situation. I have one very high level contact on the team, and he told me even before fall camp started that Jalen Hurts was the best QB on the roster, and at this point, that opinion now seems to be the consensus around the campfire.
This raises the very legitimate question of will Nick Saban throw a true freshman QB to the wolves against what appears to be a very legitimate top 20 team? Everything in Saban's past suggests the answer to this question is a definitive "no."
So then is Alabama really conducting a QB competition whereby they will not choose the consensus #1 guy (if Hurts is indeed the consensus #1 guy as I believe he is)? That seems almost as ludicrous. I mean, why have a competition if you're not going to select the best guy? Right?
Here, however, is the bigger issue. And this is also why this season's QB competition at Alabama is different from years past. In the past the competition was between guys with similar skill sets. This year we have a wild card named Jalen Hurts - who is essentially a Deshaun Watson wannabe. The other two prospects are guys who fit the mold of past Alabama QBs. This difference in style and skill-set between Hurts and his counterparts dictates that Alabama should run a totally different offense - a Clemson type offense if you will. Whereas if Cooper Bateman or Blake Barnett were to get the nod, the offense will resemble the type of offense we're accustomed to seeing from Alabama.
In other words, this is much more than just a QB battle. It is also a battle to see what kind of offense philosophy we see out of Alabama this season.
Because of that, I think Jalen Hurts should start from day one. I think that would simplify things quite a bit, because that settles both the QB issue, and the offensive scheme conundrum.
If, however, Saban decides to go with a multiple QB approach, ie., play Cooper Bateman and Jalen Hurts, then the offense will essentially have to rep two different offensive schemes, and I believe that's counter-productive.
If Jalen Hurts does start (or takes the majority of the snaps), I'm a whole lot more bullish on laying the points with Alabama, and a whole lot less bullish on the 1st half UNDER.
I know that a bunch of people will scratch their head at my logic thinking that it should probably be the other way around. If Hurts is the starter, shouldn't I expect less points and a closer game?
I don't think so, and the reason is because Jalen Hurts will not be the ordinary true freshman QB. I say that because most true freshman are forced into duty on very marginal teams. That's not the case here. According to Phil Steele, Alabama has the 12th best running backs in the nation, the #1 receiving group, and the #4 offensive line (and that may be slightly underrated). In other words, like all recent QBs at Alabama, Jalen Hurts will be surrounded by ridiculous talent, and his ability to keep plays alive, create on the move, and beat you with his feet will make this Lane Kiffin offense very, very difficult to defend - even though he's a true freshman.
As a side note, I will say that at this point I think Blake Barnett is been pretty much eliminated from the competition. The starter will either be Bateman or Hurts, or both will play (a scenario that many feel is the most likely).
Because who the QB is will make a big difference in how I see this game playing out, I would really like to know who it is before I put hard-earned money at risk. The problem is we probably won't get the answer until right before kickoff.
If Jalen Hurts is the starter, I'll probably lay off of the UNDER. If either Cooper Bateman or Blake Barnett are the starters, I'm all over the 1st half UNDER.
There is really no reason to hold back on this play. Take UNDER the USC team total. Right now that number looks to be in the neighborhood of 22.
Other than weighing in on the QB controversy, I haven't said much about Alabama thus far, or the Alabama/USC week one matchup. I have been waiting for things to play out in fall camp a bit. Save the link to this thread, because I'm about to make a very bold prediction. While most of the buzz surrounding this Alabama team has been about the QB battle, what is quietly being overlooked is the defensive side of the ball.
The 2016 defense will likely be the best defense Alabama has had in the Saban era. They will certainly be the fastest and most athletic. Phil Steele ranks Alabama's defense line and linebacking corps as the tops in the nation, and their defensive backs as the second best nationally. And if Phil Steele had a category for pass rush, Alabama would be at the top of that list as well.
Alabama's pass rush will be absolutely INSANE this season. Look for USC's Max Brown to be running for his life much of the game, especially if USC's left tackle Chad Wheeler is a no-go. Blocking Tim Williams will be a mighty tall task for any left tackle, and personally I don't think Wheeler will have much success even if he does play. But if backup Chuma Edoga is pressed into action, things could get very, very ugly for Browne, as in he may not finish the game.
My bold prediction is this: no team on Alabama's regular season schedule will score 20 points on this defense all season. Betting UNDER the team total of Alabama's opponents will likely be a standing weekly wager.
I will also add that I think bringing in Jeremy Pruitt to replace Kirby Smart as the new defensive coordinator is a coaching upgrade for the Crimson Tide.
Without further ado, I will add UNDER the USC team total to my official play list.
USC (UNDER TT 22) vs. Alabama
It was a great game, no doubt! Of course that back door cover killed my wallet, but Clemson backers deserved it.
I've been there after a loss - ode to the long ride home.
Right now, Clemson is my #1 play of week one. And that is really more a fade of Auburn than it is confidence in Clemson. That's not to say I'm not confident in Clemson, I just think Auburn will not be a good football team in week one. I think Clemson will dismantle them.
I'm starting to look at USC, and they are a pretty impressive team. They return 4 players in the ESPN Top 100 - Ju Ju Smith-Schuster (13th) is actually ranked above Alabama WR Calvin Ridley. Adoree Jackson (21st) is one of the best CB's in the game and is also an offensive threat. Zach Banner (41st) is an All Pac-12 OT and leads an OL that returns all 5 starters. LB Cam Smith (78th) was the Pac 12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year.
Fourth year QB Max Browne takes over the reigns at QB, and should be very familiar with the pro-style system they run. He's a former National High School Player of the Year. Their RB's are solid with plenty of experience, Ronald Jones and Justin Davis both rushed for over 900 yards last season. With what should be a very good OL and a lethal #1 at WR, the offense should be formidable.
Defensively USC should have a solid secondary with Jackson and Iman Marshall at the corners, and both safeties returning. USC has the aforementioned Smith at LB and some other solid talent there, but their defensive line has no returning starters.
Statistically USC had a better offense than Alabama last season, but they struggled defensively with PAC 12 offenses.
I think this is a really intriguing matchup, and I think USC will give Alabama a tough game. I think the huge advantage Alabama has, besides just being a deeper team, is that USC runs a pro-style offense, and that plays right into Saban's wheelhouse. This is something I talked about a billon times on Covers. Take Alabama when they face a pro-style offenses. They have covered these types of games at a ridiculously high rate in the Saban era.
I really don't want to make any predictions on this game before I even know who will play QB for Alabama, but my initial thought would be to play USC first half if I can get +6 or better. I think a second half play on Alabama will probably be 
money though.
Because USC runs a pro-style offense, and because this is somewhat of a revenge game for Kiffin (he's had all offseason to cook up some goodies for them), I'm pretty confident that Alabama will win the game. But laying 10.5 doesn't exactly hit my hot button.
Throwing Alabama ML in a parlay may be the way to go here.
@ jimmy
thank you so much for the valuable information!! where are you finding the team total lines at?
I calculate it based on a total of 54 and a 10-point spread. The current line would give us an Alabama team total of 32, and a USC team total of 22.
A little more Auburn news. Just as I predicted, Sean White was named the starting QB. And he was named the starting QB because he's the only competent QB on the roster. Unfortunately for Auburn, White is a pro-style QB that is not capable of running the Malzahn offense which is predicated on having a running QB.
Auburn names Sean White starting quarterback for opener
https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2016/08/auburn_names_sean_white_starti.html
Sean White has 1 career touchdown pass against 4 interceptions. He scares no one in the Malzahn read-option offense.
And yes, as I have mentioned multiple times in this thread, I have zero confidence that Auburn will have any ability to exploit any perceived weaknesses in the Clemson defense. Without a read option QB, Auburn's offense is pretty much dead and stinking. See 2015 results.
Thanks for stopping by mbibby. I didn't realize you were so well connected to the West Virginia program. Now I know where to come if I have Mountaineer questions. I played baseball at a West Virginia school.
I still have more work to do in the Mizzou/West Virginia game, but my initial review of the games indicates to me that this will be a close, one-score type of game.
All the games I am currently looking at have aspects that scare me. With respect to the Mizzou/West Virginia game, I have a policy of not betting on new coaching staffs in week one. I like to bet on teams that are a known quantity such as Clemson and Louisville. Mizzou, on the other hand, has a new coaching staff and a whole bunch of question marks. So even though I like the spot for Mizzou, I have to ask myself the question - is Mizzou a team I really want to throw hard-earned money behind? Common sense says "no," but I have been known to eschew common sense at times.
I think a better week 1 betting strategy is to bet first half UNDERS, and hope the defenses are a little ahead of the offenses.
It looks as though the wheels are falling off of the Gus Bus sooner than anticipated. Today Chuck Oliver spent almost his entire program talking about what I've been saying for weeks now, that Auburn is a complete sh*t-show. Then we have this:
Auburn safety Stephen Roberts arrested for attempting to elude, possession of gun without permit
https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2016/08/auburn_safety_stephen_roberts.html
FYI, Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is not a frail true freshman. In fact he's a powerlifting champion, and will be the strongest QB in the SEC the minute he steps on the field, if not the nation.
Alabama QB Jalen Hurts Shows Off Incredible Strength
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3MYx64Ytkc
Established in 1995,
GL this season.
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