JimmyDaFreak

I prefer a low-key approach.  That said, I'm really not sure what I'm going to do yet.  I'll definitely post some, but I won't make a second job of it.

It was a great game, no doubt!  Of course that back door cover killed my wallet, but Clemson backers deserved it.

I've been there after a loss - ode to the long ride home.

Right now, Clemson is my #1 play of week one.  And that is really more a fade of Auburn than it is confidence in Clemson.  That's not to say I'm not confident in Clemson, I just think Auburn will not be a good football team in week one.  I think Clemson will dismantle them.

I'm starting to look at USC, and they are a pretty impressive team.  They return 4 players in the ESPN Top 100 - Ju Ju Smith-Schuster (13th) is actually ranked above Alabama WR Calvin Ridley. Adoree Jackson (21st) is one of the best CB's in the game and is also an offensive threat. Zach Banner (41st) is an All Pac-12 OT and leads an OL that returns all 5 starters. LB Cam Smith (78th) was the Pac 12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year.

Fourth year QB Max Browne takes over the reigns at QB, and should be very familiar with the pro-style system they run. He's a former National High School Player of the Year. Their RB's are solid with plenty of experience, Ronald Jones and Justin Davis both rushed for over 900 yards last season. With what should be a very good OL and a lethal #1 at WR, the offense should be formidable.

Defensively USC should have a solid secondary with Jackson and Iman Marshall at the corners, and both safeties returning.  USC has the aforementioned Smith at LB and some other solid talent there, but their defensive line has no returning starters.

Statistically USC had a better offense than Alabama last season, but they struggled defensively with PAC 12 offenses.

I think this is a really intriguing matchup, and I think USC will give Alabama a tough game.  I think the huge advantage Alabama has, besides just being a deeper team, is that USC runs a pro-style offense, and that plays right into Saban's wheelhouse.  This is something I talked about a billon times on Covers.  Take Alabama when they face a pro-style offenses.  They have covered these types of games at a ridiculously high rate in the Saban era.

I really don't want to make any predictions on this game before I even know who will play QB for Alabama, but my initial thought would be to play USC first half if I can get +6 or better.  I think a second half play on Alabama will probably be  money though.

Because USC runs a pro-style offense, and because this is somewhat of a revenge game for Kiffin (he's had all offseason to cook up some goodies for them), I'm pretty confident that Alabama will win the game.  But laying 10.5 doesn't exactly hit my hot button.

Throwing Alabama ML in a parlay may be the way to go here.

My first pick is Clemson minus whatever.  While Clemson is playing on the road and has a history of struggling with SEC teams, I really don't see how what I expect to be an abysmal Auburn offense will be competitive for four quarters.  I'm looking for a 38-10 type of score.

 I agree.  I will certainly consider a 1st half UNDER play.

In terms of the UNDER, USC's defensive front 7 is a big concern.  If I can get number of 24 or better, it's a good chance I'll be on the 1st half UNDER.

I don't think you're grasping how bad this Auburn football team is going to be.  Their problem is that they have absolutely nothing offensively by which to exploit Clemson's "decimated" defense.

Clemson's decimated defense vs. Auburn's offense is a significant mismatch in favor of Clemson.

Betting one team first half, and the other team in the 2nd half is a strategy I use frequently.  The SEC Championship game comes to mind.  I cashed on the Gators in the 1st half, and Alabama in the 2nd.

I see this being a very close low-scoring game in the first half.  Thus I lean toward the dog and the UNDER in the 1st half.  As I said above, because USC runs a pro-style scheme - a scheme that really plays into the strength of this formidable Alabama defense - I don't really see USC scoring a whole lot.  I think USC's front 7 will eventually wear down at some point in the 2nd half.  Therefore, I think we'll see Alabama pull away in the 2nd half.

Of course you can't wager on the 2nd half until the line is released at the conclusion of the first half.  In the past I have made it known when posting plays that I will be looking to make a 2nd half wager on a certain team in a certain game.  Most of the time I have followed through on that.

I do it when a team who I think will cover is likely to struggle in the 1st half.

Offense is exactly why Auburn will be absolutely dreadful this season, and why they will get blown out of their own house in Week 1.

Their QB situation is a complete sh*t show.  They don't have a single person on the roster that can remotely run Malzahn's offense.  In other words, they have no QB, and zero leadership on that side of the ball.

They are down to having a FB playing RB, and absolutely no experience at the receiver positions.  Their offensive line should be respectable, but that probably won't help too much when you're atrocious at the skill positions.

I think there is virtually no shot this offense generates more than 17 points against Clemson.  Conversely, it's almost a certainty that Watson and Company get at least into the high 30s.

If you do feel the need to bet on Auburn, take them 1st half.  That wager may at least have a fighting chance.

Clemson should win this game very comfortably.  I look for a score of something like 45-17 or 42-10.

I think the line is 7.5 because Clemson has typically struggled mightily against SEC competition in the past.  Last season, which was one of their best teams in school history, they only managed to squeaked by a woeful South Carolina team on the road 37-32.

And prior to knocking off South Carolina the past two seasons, the Gamecocks absolutely owned Clemson in the Spurrier era.  The reason Clemson was getting dominated by South Carolina is because they were getting abused at the point of attack, so South Carolina simply played ball control and dominated TOP.

But there are many reasons why I don't think Clemson will struggle in this game, and the primary reason is that even if Auburn's offense is hitting on all cylinders, and we'll see nothing even remotely resembling that against Clemson, they have no ability to play smash-mouth ball control offense, which is what it would take to keep this game close IMO.

Clemson would really have to implode not to cover this spread.