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It's Meat Tenderizer time again baby!!! Time to POUND this BEEFY PLAY OF THE YEAR!!!

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Captain
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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Well Mr Big Letters crybaby, I'm talking to you. Can we add hypocrite to you too? So BWS doesn't need me talking for him? Just like Scal doesn't need you talking for him. You're not the sharpest tool in the shed are you? 


Look at you Mr. tough guy. You and BWS are not only the problem with covers, but our society as a whole. 

The OP posts insightful yet entertaining write-ups. He might like to exaggerate a little, but thats his style and so be it. Instead we have BWS wanting SCAL to take his action. What the hell does scal look like? tony from 5dimes? 

My point to BWS was, why bash on the OP? someone who posts USEFUL information. BACKS UP his picks with ACTUAL info, and not just $hit talk? 

He has posted a POSITIVE SEASON, and yet you idiots troll on the wrong people here. Act like grown men, don't open the thread if you are just going to cause drama and troll.  And this isn't just for SCAL, its for everyone who is jealous of other posters who get more attention than others. 

I have wasted enough time, sorry Scal for cluttering this $hit up. best of luck this weekend. 
 
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Posted: #52
Oh yeah, nice line btw. "sharpest tool in the shed." really creative, never heard that one! 

good luck on all your action and in life, bud. 
 
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Posted: #53
Grow up little boy. Real soon. Act like a man? Your are far from it. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #54
Getting worked up on a forum with strangers. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #55
Plus too stupid too get the point of it all


Scal - BOL on the play. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #56
Is anyone selling meat tenderizer or do I need to beat it myself?
 
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Posted: #57
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Check my thread out tonight Scal....rare mini writeup coming....


Tulane will be playing 4th road game in 5 weeks....and the last 4 games have been vs physical teams......

Didn't see the write-up in your thread Train but glad to see your pounding this one like me. UNC is also an interesting pick.
 
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Posted: #59
@been @murdish

@Morphine - Ah yes, the days of Bovada waiting DAYS to post lines...sometimes the entire week! They are a piece of work to put up with.

It looks like you'll be fine with the -3 and they should have it up now. It hasn't moved an inch in 3 days which should calm Bovada's nerves on how much they will lose on an Smu/Tulane game.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


Good job on your cherry picked statistics.... How about stats from this season only?  I'm hitting 61% on my 87 plays this year in college football without excuses, and will gladly let you book my $100 on Tulane +3.    You gonna take it?   We can hash out the payment details privately or come up with a trusted 3rd party to handle the funds.  

I LOVE that you picked this game to give the scal treatment.....    

The excuses are already built into the play.   SMU is bad.   And laying points, like you said you wouldn't do again after the Notre Dame loss to Temple.   My crystal ball peers into Saturday night seeing you typing "that's what I get for laying points with a crappy team like SMU".....     Perfect game for you.   


You interested in taking the play?   I wouldn't touch this as one of my actual plays, but since you brought it up, I'll play it against you..... mostly for fun, but taking your money would be even more fun since you're so confident that you're beating your meat to it......


Let me know.     
 



Now how can I trust a troll to pay me my money? And you will be paying because if you are taking Tulane you are in for a rude awakening!

Anyhow, I have a solution: Donation to charity of the winner's choice.

Then post the online receipt (names/card info removed obviously) in this thread.

$100 donation

You lose?

You make a donation to the United Negro College Fund.(Folks, he doesn't want to do this...believe me!!!)

As long as your charity isn't a terrorist organization/hate group, I will donate to it if you agree.

@jail
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Plus too stupid too get the point of it all


Scal - BOL on the play. 
 I answered the call. Let's see if he does.


 
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Posted: #62
Just wanted to add another piece of info on Tulane:


Tanner Lee, Tulane's QB, is playing with a broken middle finger on his throwing hand. His backup is not acceptable to win anything of any kind and therefore, Lee stays out there.

Now I've watched Tanner Lee many times this year. He can air it out. Definitely can throw and connect on bombs and I fully expect him to do so on SMU's secondary (not to worry SMU will score more than enough to overcome this).

But Tanner is quite the prize when it comes to needing errant throws. He misses targets by 5 yards sometimes on deep passes. This is like serving a secondary, even a bad one, lunch with a bib on. Army just was in the wrong place, wrong time when it happened but you can't get away with this kind of thing over and over and he does it 3/4/5 times a game. If you have Tulane you will be holding your breath on some of his long throws. Intercept 40% of those passes and those are additional scores in addition to what SMU will give us.

Lee was not fully responsible for most of Tulane's scores, and they all came early.

Went up 28-7 in the first half by these Army miscues:

1) Snap over the head of the punter giving Tulane field position deep in army territory. Resulted in a TD.
2) 47 yard fumble return for a TD
3) Lee throws an 80+ yard bomb that the receiver drops. Army's secondary is so bad he calls the exact same play and converts it on the next down. Lee can connect on those as stated. But that is more an indictment of how bad Army is than it is Lee's skill in comparison. That gave him a huge chunk of throwing yards for the game in comparison to Army's long sustained drives for multiple scores (what you want to see when backing a team and what you want to fade on Tulane's side because you can't depend on fumbles/snap miscues/and Hail Mary's game after game).

Furthermore, Tulane was up 21-7 in the beginning of the second quarter and only had 4 first downs! I'll fade that every day of the week. Army absolutely dominated time of possession. Why am I telling you this? This is not an efficient offense in any and not a penny should be wagered on it. Tulane thrives off turnovers and good field positio from those turnover and it they don't get them, they will struggle.

They also went up 28-7 and let Army tie it up 28-28 (they don't know what it is to maintain a lead...).

And this isn't just the Army game. Tulane does this every game. I'm just giving you the details of the most recent game.

Two consecutive road wins for this Tulane team is almost unfathomable.





 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Now how can I trust a troll to pay me my money? And you will be paying because if you are taking Tulane you are in for a rude awakening!

Anyhow, I have a solution: Donation to charity of the winner's choice.

Then post the online receipt (names/card info removed obviously) in this thread.

$100 donation

You lose?

You make a donation to the United Negro College Fund.(Folks, he doesn't want to do this...believe me!!!)

As long as your charity isn't a terrorist organization/hate group, I will donate to it if you agree.

@jail

1st off....   anyone who welches a bet is a scumbag and that is NOT something I do.

You're on.   I actually thought of proposing this same thing today, as I wouldn't want you having my personal info and you definitely don't want me having yours.

As for your charity, keep it the same if you wish, but if you're picking that in some futile attempt to spite me it's a pretty shitty way to go.  

I have a friend who has a young son with Autism, so that is the charity I will select for your payment.   

This is a link to the site...  if you have a different site (I'm sure there are many) that you prefer that is fine.   Please provide me a link to yours.

https://www.autism-society.org/




May the least terrible team win.    
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


1st off....   anyone who welches a bet is a scumbag and that is NOT something I do.

You're on.   I actually thought of proposing this same thing today, as I wouldn't want you having my personal info and you definitely don't want me having yours.

As for your charity, keep it the same if you wish, but if you're picking that in some futile attempt to spite me it's a pretty shitty way to go.  

I have a friend who has a young son with Autism, so that is the charity I will select for your payment.   

This is a link to the site...  if you have a different site (I'm sure there are many) that you prefer that is fine.   Please provide me a link to yours.

https://www.autism-society.org/




May the least terrible team win.    



Fine with me.

Why wait? I'd donate right now if I were you.

Most people say you're going to a gunfight with a knife in a confrontation they will lose.

With Tulane on the road and an already below average QB with a broken finger on his throwing hand, you're also going to a gunfight....with a toilet plunger and a Sham-Wow.


https://secure2.convio.net/uncf/site/SPageServer?JServSessionIdr004=8546gphsh9.app214a&pagename=main_page


 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:




Fine with me.

Why wait? I'd donate right now if I were you.

Most people say you're going to a gunfight with a knife in a confrontation they will lose.

With Tulane on the road and an already below average QB with a broken finger on his throwing hand, you're also going to a gunfight....with a toilet plunger and a Sham-Wow.


https://secure2.convio.net/uncf/site/SPageServer?JServSessionIdr004=8546gphsh9.app214a&page

You still can't show 1 single ounce of class can you?   

Shut your face and let the game play out.   



 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Plus too stupid too get the point of it all


Scal - BOL on the play. 

hey bud. the second "too" you used is supposed to say "to"

not sure where you went to school, but clearly it was a poor system. 

gl in the future 
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:


hey bud. the second "too" you used is supposed to say "to"

not sure where you went to school, but clearly it was a poor system. 

gl in the future 

You got me on that typo that should have been caught. It does make me look pretty lame. But if you're going to call someone out, you might try proper sentence structure yourself. 

Good luck on your plays jailbait, no offense was intended. As you've said we're here to win money
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #68
Fade this scal dood. Its a easy winner.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by ThieNoii:

Fade this scal dood. Its a easy winner.

Dood?

Don't ever run a 'Dood' Ranch.

You won't get one patron because they won't know what the hell it is you are providing...
 
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Posted: #70
SMU now -2.5 on Bookmaker     
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:


You got me on that typo that should have been caught. It does make me look pretty lame. But if you're going to call someone out, you might try proper sentence structure yourself. 

Good luck on your plays jailbait, no offense was intended. As you've said we're here to win money


 
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Posted: #72
Scal, BOL with the play and will be following you on this one..Thank you again for your time and insight, one of the few people I follow blindly as I know nothing or have watched either team (for good reason).

Had a question regarding money flow and I know you've stated square or public plays win all the time. In relation to this, how do you factor in reverse line movement when capping. I noticed this was the case on the Raptors/Kings game the other night as roughly 80% was on the Kings, yet the line went from +3 to +1.5 before the game.

The reason I ask is I have noticed the initial numbers of a little over 60% (not nearly as much as Toronto) yet the line went from Tulane from +3 to +2.5; Just curious with your opinion on this. Thanks again 
 
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Posted: #73
@johhny - well, even with reverse line movement, if I capped a game from head to toe like this one, I have no problem if the line moves for my team to a more favorable number, because I capped it at the original number.

Now if I'm betting a game that is not capped from top to bottom (say for instance one I want to throw in a progressive teaser) I wil use RLM to a degree  but, just note, .5 pt movements are not all that significant. Yes this moved off three but SMU is about scoring TD's not FG's. It is incredibly unlikely this game is decided by three points on either side. That's why last week's Baylor move from -6.5 to -2.5 was largely meaningless: if Baylor was going to win, it was going to be another blowout like in the previous two years or OK would win. Of Ok won (and should have won by even more)

Of course, the public was on OK too. Not a big fan of RLM because it's tough to spot and honestly I've seen it very, very rarely in the games I've been interested in this year.

Then you have the unexplainable side. I have no idea why the Raps line went down. I can assure you the Kings still have a fractured locker room and for them to go on a 16-3 run to end the game against a good defensive team is just...well it left me breathless. I'm backing off the NBA because of this. Teams just don't perform at the level you can expect when compared to college, football or basketball. For the Nets to go into Golden State on a b2b and Coke within an inch of winNing outright as 17 or dogs? GS is going to win 65+ games this year and this is one of the worst nets teams since the 0-13 year. It's really a joke. You don't know who is going to show up in the NBA from night to night. it's A common refrain but it's really magnified when I'm betting college CFB and the NBA at the same time.

I can't say this enough, this Tulane team is a special kind of bad. The OPENING snap for Tulane against Army? The center snapped it....off his own a**. Now SMU's defense is easily among the worst in the country but come on now: TCU Baylor Houston and on and on and on. Those bloat the poor D stats. Yes they gave up 729 yards to James Madison but they can score in bulk and Tulane cannot score and Tulane will need to drop 500+ on them to make this a close game. I just don't see how they will be capable of that and even if they are, you don't want to go toe to toe with a boxer if you are not a puncher and Tulane isn't a puncher. If SMU's secondary just does its best to limit big plays (a small request against such a team), Tulane is not a team to have long sustained TD drives against anyone. And that will result in a loss.

And the SMU coach has said the season, although already a failure will be a debacle if they can't win this game at home on Senior night in prime time against what may be an easier game than James Madison. At a minimum, it is a recruiting tool for teams that want to progress in very tough divisions. Despite the 3 wins, I can promise Tulane is among one of the worst in the country and now with a QB that has an issue throwing and receiving the ball off the snap? SMU must break out and get quick scores and go up early because Tulane is a bad second half team (in addition to being a bad team in general both offensively and defensively).


 
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Posted: #74
Great Covers thread....
  *complete with mucho BS...threats...handicapping Kung FU ....

I would think SMU covers.........BECAUSE

  *Tulane has an aggressive / physical defensive front....that is capable of shutting down methodical / move the chains O's like Army.....UConn.....or even Navy.......

Here is Navy's rushing per carry average TY.....care to guess which game is Tulane?.....ND > 6.49.....SMU 6.2
 
7.89
5.53
4.97
5.29
6.49
2.46
6.20
5.67
6.20

BUT....Ponies ain't NAVY.....and should be able to stretch the field here....and simply outscore Tulane.....who has one of the nation's worst O's.....and maybe worst OL (#128 FEI efficiency)
  *SMU D is not THAT much worse than Tulane....while O is MUCH better....ST are really bad for both....Tulane's slightly worse
 
       *NOTE:  Tulane does have the #1 rush D in AAC....3.3/rush...138/g....and #1 in TFL as well......so should cause SMU OL some problems....> UNDER a consideration........

Most importantly.....SMU needs this one MUCH more...
  *their LAST home game......with a terribly disinterested fan base.....even weaker recruiting base....Jones decided to NOT recruit DFW area wtf..........no way they can afford to lose this one
  *Tulane at 3-7 with a home game vs Tulsa next....SMU at Memphis......should be colder here (for us) ....low 40's maybe....slight to zero crowd edge for SMU

REASON to not get too excited?
 *Ponies the last 5 games a TURNOVER machine....losing the ball 13X / forcing 2 .....24 fumbles rank #124    
 *Wave playing with some (false maybe) confidence.....covering their last 4....Ponies covered 1/7 games...........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
 
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Posted: #75
GL scal

I have to agree, and I actually feel like the Mustangs owe me after the collapse vs Temple where my +13 got the  Of the year....

I like the play, and will be with you
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