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It's Meat Tenderizer time again baby!!! Time to POUND this BEEFY PLAY OF THE YEAR!!!

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Posted: #101
As said, good luck with the play Scal, but Bookie and BWS have valid points. You seem to get pissy if someone doesn't answer or post the way YOU think they should. If the point the make is in line with how YOU would make the point, you discredit it. You act as if you're the only who sees teams play and your view is the only view. Nothing was wrong with Bookie's original post at all. You didn't like his choice of words, which were pretty spot on. BWS is correct because an eight year would get mad about it.

Get over it. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #102
"If the point the make is in line" should say "If the point they make isn't in line"
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #103
Christ! A "play of the year" on a 1-9 football team with a FCS caliber defense. Even if you get lucky and win, it's still a bad play!

 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

As said, good luck with the play Scal, but Bookie and BWS have valid points. You seem to get pissy if someone doesn't answer or post the way YOU think they should. If the point the make is in line with how YOU would make the point, you discredit it. You act as if you're the only who sees teams play and your view is the only view. Nothing was wrong with Bookie's original post at all. You didn't like his choice of words, which were pretty spot on. BWS is correct because an eight year would get mad about it.

Get over it. 

Lol. What a selective interpretation that is!

The guy comes in the thread and calls it BS and then copies and pastes some charts (and ultimately chooses the same side, which he is now against of course). I'm supposed to sit there and smile subserviently while I read that?

Who is 'mad' about it? It's a thread on covers. I'm about as mad about it as he is concerned about it calling it BS.

And again, you and BWS still do not get the 'watching Tulane' comment which is remarkable because I've explained it several times now. I GUARANTEE he hasn't watched this team once outside of highlights (make that lowlights) yet he still thinks his cap is credible. 

When you watch Tulane, when you watch the ineptitude, when you watch the disorganization, the fumbles, the inability to compete with a team of even halfway decent caliber, when you see Tanner Lee throw deep balls 10 yards ahead of the closest receiver, you will understand that this pick goes beyond the box scores and any advanced metrics anyone is trying to offer. It's much like watching Rutgers. No stat could get me off fading them in certain spots because I've watched that team my entire life and I know, at their core what they are capable of. And this Tulane team isn't capable of being within three of this SMU offense no matter how bad their D is (and it's about as bad as it gets), despite the fact they could put up 30.
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:

Christ! A "play of the year" on a 1-9 football team with a FCS caliber defense. Even if you get lucky and win, it's still a bad play!


Guys, only a play of the year can be made on a BCS championship playoff game because those teams are AWESOME DUDE!!!!

And of course, 4 fills pages of comments and responses on why a team will win is now....'lucky'.
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

This threads great comedy. Honestly I can't bet on this SMU team, but I have a special hatred for teams that don't even try to play defense like Tulsa, SMU, and Texas Tech. I'll stick to betting a terrible Rutgers team vs Army, who could really care less about any game all year except Navy.

Army has a halfway decent triple option and they are getting better at it by the week! If they limit the fumbles they will eat up clock and stay in the game. Rutgers O-Line is conpeltely battered and Carroo is not healthy in the least. Staying off that game but if anything, the way army eats up clock and given all the close games they've been in this season, I'd trade army up at that line.
 
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Posted: #107
*tease
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Guys, only a play of the year can be made on a BCS championship playoff game because those teams are AWESOME DUDE!!!!

And of course, 4 fills pages of comments and responses on why a team will win is now....'lucky'.

There could be 40 pages of comments and responses. It still doesn't make it a smart play.

Hell, if you want to play a bad team laying 3 points at home against another bad team, take Maryland. 

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

@johhny - well, even with reverse line movement, if I capped a game from head to toe like this one, I have no problem if the line moves for my team to a more favorable number, because I capped it at the original number.

Now if I'm betting a game that is not capped from top to bottom (say for instance one I want to throw in a progressive teaser) I wil use RLM to a degree  but, just note, .5 pt movements are not all that significant. Yes this moved off three but SMU is about scoring TD's not FG's. It is incredibly unlikely this game is decided by three points on either side. That's why last week's Baylor move from -6.5 to -2.5 was largely meaningless: if Baylor was going to win, it was going to be another blowout like in the previous two years or OK would win. Of Ok won (and should have won by even more)

Of course, the public was on OK too. Not a big fan of RLM because it's tough to spot and honestly I've seen it very, very rarely in the games I've been interested in this year.

Then you have the unexplainable side. I have no idea why the Raps line went down. I can assure you the Kings still have a fractured locker room and for them to go on a 16-3 run to end the game against a good defensive team is just...well it left me breathless. I'm backing off the NBA because of this. Teams just don't perform at the level you can expect when compared to college, football or basketball. For the Nets to go into Golden State on a b2b and Coke within an inch of winNing outright as 17 or dogs? GS is going to win 65+ games this year and this is one of the worst nets teams since the 0-13 year. It's really a joke. You don't know who is going to show up in the NBA from night to night. it's A common refrain but it's really magnified when I'm betting college CFB and the NBA at the same time.

I can't say this enough, this Tulane team is a special kind of bad. The OPENING snap for Tulane against Army? The center snapped it....off his own a**. Now SMU's defense is easily among the worst in the country but come on now: TCU Baylor Houston and on and on and on. Those bloat the poor D stats. Yes they gave up 729 yards to James Madison but they can score in bulk and Tulane cannot score and Tulane will need to drop 500+ on them to make this a close game. I just don't see how they will be capable of that and even if they are, you don't want to go toe to toe with a boxer if you are not a puncher and Tulane isn't a puncher. If SMU's secondary just does its best to limit big plays (a small request against such a team), Tulane is not a team to have long sustained TD drives against anyone. And that will result in a loss.

And the SMU coach has said the season, although already a failure will be a debacle if they can't win this game at home on Senior night in prime time against what may be an easier game than James Madison. At a minimum, it is a recruiting tool for teams that want to progress in very tough divisions. Despite the 3 wins, I can promise Tulane is among one of the worst in the country and now with a QB that has an issue throwing and receiving the ball off the snap? SMU must break out and get quick scores and go up early because Tulane is a bad second half team (in addition to being a bad team in general both offensively and defensively).




Thank you for the explanation and insight. Let's get paid tomorrow
 
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Posted: #110
Scal, don't tell me what I do and don't get. You are clueless as to that. You just may be the one who is not getting it sometimes. Oh wait, that can' happen to the mighty Scal! LOL!

Enough on this. It is what it is.

Good luck on the play 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:


There could be 40 pages of comments and responses. It still doesn't make it a smart play.

Hell, if you want to play a bad team laying 3 points at home against another bad team, take Maryland. 

yeah guys. Don't take SMU, they're bad! Take Maryland. Now that's a dependable team right there!!!


 Doesn't make it a smart play...:

Lol. The problem is you haven't disproven it. You've only said SMU is a bad team...and then you endorse Maryland!!! The height of all comedy...

 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by Johnny_Covers:



Thank you for the explanation and insight. Let's get paid tomorrow
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Scal, don't tell me what I do and don't get. You are clueless as to that. You just may be the one who is not getting it sometimes. Oh wait, that can' happen to the mighty Scal! LOL!

Enough on this. It is what it is.

Good luck on the play 

Thanks. If you want to make money, play SMU. It's a winner. Enough said.
 
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Posted: #114
Scal: FSU coming off huge win over temple. Really liking cincy-1 tonight. What's your thoughts on this line? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #115
**SFU
 
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Posted: #116
In my book you got bad teams and you got unlucky teams.  Lets analyze SMU's losses.  They scheduled tough out of conference Baylor and TCU.  Both top 5 teams preseason.  They got beat by 3+ scores by each.  Not really a shock.  Then East Carolina, Houston, South Florida, Tulsa, Temple, Navy.  If we were going to do an American Atlantic Conference power rankings we'd probably rank the bottom 3 teams in conference as Tulane, UCF, and UConn.  SMU has not got to face one of those teams.  The value on their play is due to the public looking at the record of the teams and judging that, but in reality if you have watched both teams play this season the talent level is not really close.  SMU's defense may not be very good, but they have a really good mobile QB who will make enough plays to make this a 10+ point victory.
 
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Posted: #117
So i got SMU at -3 1/2 -- still a strong bet. Seems like over 3 and I start debating.
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by cadman04:

Scal: FSU coming off huge win over temple. Really liking cincy-1 tonight. What's your thoughts on this line? Thanks.

This game has perplexed me for days. I don't really understand how you make Cincy a favorite here in any way. Therefore I've stayed away. Really wanted to take SFU but not of a huge win like that as you mentioned. SFU really needs this game for a bowl too. Dangerous game that should come down to the gun.
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

Don't know Scal. Would llean SMU too but that D has been terrible. Giving up at least 40 to everybody they've played. That's not good if you have to lay points. Except for usf scoring 38 everyone else has put up a ton of points on them. Tulane gave up less points to Navy than SMU did and Temple as well. I may tease them thru +7 maybe as I could see a close one but maybe you know much more. Seem confident. BOL

I agree here Trey. After looking hard at this game. These two teams have 3 common opponents. They both gave up 457/461 yards to Houston. However, Tulane Defense gave up 355 to Temple, and 291 to Navy. SMUs defense gave up 536 to Temple and 484 to Navy. That's a huge difference. Also SMU fumbles the ball quite a bit. Every time they do not fumble in a game, they follow it up with 2+ lost. They didn't fumble last game... I still think SMU can win but think it's going to be a competitve game.
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Win4Ever:

In my book you got bad teams and you got unlucky teams.  Lets analyze SMU's losses.  They scheduled tough out of conference Baylor and TCU.  Both top 5 teams preseason.  They got beat by 3+ scores by each.  Not really a shock.  Then East Carolina, Houston, South Florida, Tulsa, Temple, Navy.  If we were going to do an American Atlantic Conference power rankings we'd probably rank the bottom 3 teams in conference as Tulane, UCF, and UConn.  SMU has not got to face one of those teams.  The value on their play is due to the public looking at the record of the teams and judging that, but in reality if you have watched both teams play this season the talent level is not really close.  SMU's defense may not be very good, but they have a really good mobile QB who will make enough plays to make this a 10+ point victory.

 I agree l. It's much like bowling green. Their defense is nonexistent many games but they score and score often and they will gas your Defense. SMU has a very mobile QB who can also throw for 300. They will score. Tanner Lee is a below average QB with a broken finger and the Tulane running game is invisible. Bad combo for Tulane.
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:


I agree here Trey. After looking hard at this game. These two teams have 3 common opponents. They both gave up 457/461 yards to Houston. However, Tulane Defense gave up 355 to Temple, and 291 to Navy. SMUs defense gave up 536 to Temple and 484 to Navy. That's a huge difference. Also SMU fumbles the ball quite a bit. Every time they do not fumble in a game, they follow it up with 2+ lost. They didn't fumble last game... I still think SMU can win but think it's going to be a competitve game.

Tulane played 3 triple option teams. They know how to defend that offense (but still lose). That explains their performance against Tulane.

In the Temple game you are looking at the wrong side of the ball. Don't look at the defense, look at the offense. Tulane scored 10 points in the first quarter and was destroyed the rest of the way.

SMU was 40-45 with 1:30 and gave up two quick scores off a turnover and a scramble to lose 60-40. That game was MUCH closer!

Their performance against Temple was LIGHT YEARS ahead of Tulane and should not be viewed on a 'defense gave up this much' basis. Sometimes the raw stats do not tell the story about how close a game was!

It will be competitive. No one said there would be a blowout! The line is three and they need to get over that number. SMU is home, Tulane is on back to back road games (and 4 of 5 road games in the past 5) and now plays a high powered offense and haven't demonstrated they can score against anyone but UCF and Army. SMU has scored early and often with the best of the best!
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by Beags121:

So i got SMU at -3 1/2 -- still a strong bet. Seems like over 3 and I start debating.
 
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by MedicalMaryJay:


I agree here Trey. After looking hard at this game. These two teams have 3 common opponents. They both gave up 457/461 yards to Houston. However, Tulane Defense gave up 355 to Temple, and 291 to Navy. SMUs defense gave up 536 to Temple and 484 to Navy. That's a huge difference. Also SMU fumbles the ball quite a bit. Every time they do not fumble in a game, they follow it up with 2+ lost. They didn't fumble last game... I still think SMU can win but think it's going to be a competitve game.

SMU takes chances. That explains some of the fumbles. Tulane is very vanilla and is willing to punt more often then not...
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

yeah guys. Don't take SMU, they're bad! Take Maryland. Now that's a dependable team right there!!!


 Doesn't make it a smart play...:

Lol. The problem is you haven't disproven it. You've only said SMU is a bad team...and then you endorse Maryland!!! The height of all comedy...



ATS Maryland:  6-4
ATS SMU:  4-6


Maybe you should do some homework before discrediting someone else's statements.   
 
 
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Posted: #125
The sad part is now I have to pay attention to this game.......

Scal, I'm curious. I know you're back East, follow NY NJ teams, Penn/Philly.................................so.................how do you end up watching so much Tulane football?
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