I have come to learn that the key to betting success is to keep things simple and don't complicate things. Now obviously the spread is not out so no one knows how big it will be. Nevertheless, here are a few solid points that are irrefutable about the Cal-Mary land game.
1. This a "revenge game" for Cal
If you look at how Cal has done against non-conference opps at home since Tedford has been there, they have been lights out. In addition, think back to the last "revenge game" that Cal played in 2007 against Tennessee where they blewout Tennessee at home after losing on the road to them in 2006. Much like the 2006 Tenn. game where Cal played "rattled" in the first half and got way behind, they did the same against Maryland last year.
2. Maryland does not travel well.
Maryland's record against West coast team early in the season is terrible. They are not accostomed to traveling to the West Coast and in addition they have never won a game against a Pac 10 team in CA.
3. Cal has Jahvid Best and Maryland's defense is depleted.
Jahvid Best is hands down the best running back in CFB. Running behind a strong O-line and against a depleted defense its hard to imagine Best does not go for at least 150 on the ground. Maryland's d-line and lb corps are depleted and this should rresult in a field day for Best.
In summation, I look for Cal to jump on the Terps early and not let up, as Tedford will be talking up the "revenge" angle. It's my belief that if the point spread is anything less than 17, that Cal is the best play for week 1.
What do you guys think. If you disagree then please tell me a better play....
I have come to learn that the key to betting success is to keep things simple and don't complicate things. Now obviously the spread is not out so no one knows how big it will be. Nevertheless, here are a few solid points that are irrefutable about the Cal-Mary land game.
1. This a "revenge game" for Cal
If you look at how Cal has done against non-conference opps at home since Tedford has been there, they have been lights out. In addition, think back to the last "revenge game" that Cal played in 2007 against Tennessee where they blewout Tennessee at home after losing on the road to them in 2006. Much like the 2006 Tenn. game where Cal played "rattled" in the first half and got way behind, they did the same against Maryland last year.
2. Maryland does not travel well.
Maryland's record against West coast team early in the season is terrible. They are not accostomed to traveling to the West Coast and in addition they have never won a game against a Pac 10 team in CA.
3. Cal has Jahvid Best and Maryland's defense is depleted.
Jahvid Best is hands down the best running back in CFB. Running behind a strong O-line and against a depleted defense its hard to imagine Best does not go for at least 150 on the ground. Maryland's d-line and lb corps are depleted and this should rresult in a field day for Best.
In summation, I look for Cal to jump on the Terps early and not let up, as Tedford will be talking up the "revenge" angle. It's my belief that if the point spread is anything less than 17, that Cal is the best play for week 1.
What do you guys think. If you disagree then please tell me a better play....
These cross country games often spell disaster for the travelling team. So combined with the revenge factor Cal could win this one big. Converesely I didnt like Cal having to play MD at noon eastern time as a 14 point favorite. Cal really beat themselves with a horrible start to that game.
This is certainly one that I have circled, but would obviously hope the line doesnt get too crazy.
These cross country games often spell disaster for the travelling team. So combined with the revenge factor Cal could win this one big. Converesely I didnt like Cal having to play MD at noon eastern time as a 14 point favorite. Cal really beat themselves with a horrible start to that game.
This is certainly one that I have circled, but would obviously hope the line doesnt get too crazy.
Its def one of my def bets. Now, if its the best bet on the board, ehhh. The number will be high, and if you want a "really good bet revenge game" I would look at the smaller number NCST/ So.Car.
Here is some things to help your wantign to lay the wood on Cal that I put in my write up.
MD- was 1-4 SU, ATS on the road. 3-7 SU, 3-8 ATS L2 yr. In 5 road games, they gave up 215carries, 988yrd (197.6ave) and 4.58ypc.3 of the 5 games they gave up 200+. There most experienced D-Line coming back has 4 starts. Not to mention they lost their #2-5 tacklers from LY.
Cal- 7-0 ATS @ H LY. 3-0 ATS L3 home openers. @ H LY, they had 263 carries, 1553yrd, 5.9ypc. They ave 37.5 carr and 221yrd. Only once held under 100, 3 -200+ game and once going over 4.
Oh, did I mention Best is there RB (194carr, 1580yrd, 15TD, 8.1ypc)
Its def one of my def bets. Now, if its the best bet on the board, ehhh. The number will be high, and if you want a "really good bet revenge game" I would look at the smaller number NCST/ So.Car.
Here is some things to help your wantign to lay the wood on Cal that I put in my write up.
MD- was 1-4 SU, ATS on the road. 3-7 SU, 3-8 ATS L2 yr. In 5 road games, they gave up 215carries, 988yrd (197.6ave) and 4.58ypc.3 of the 5 games they gave up 200+. There most experienced D-Line coming back has 4 starts. Not to mention they lost their #2-5 tacklers from LY.
Cal- 7-0 ATS @ H LY. 3-0 ATS L3 home openers. @ H LY, they had 263 carries, 1553yrd, 5.9ypc. They ave 37.5 carr and 221yrd. Only once held under 100, 3 -200+ game and once going over 4.
Oh, did I mention Best is there RB (194carr, 1580yrd, 15TD, 8.1ypc)
Maryland is picked to finish 5th or 6th in the very weak ACC Atlantic Division. They have 6 offensive palyers returning, and 4 defensive players coming back. Marylands ofensive line is not real good, and Cal has a dominant defensive line.
Remember this. A lot of Pac 10 teams have been snubbed out of BCS Bowls. This happened to Tedford in 2004. Tedford should have learned his lesson, which is to beat up on non-con teams to impress the voters. I will not go over 17 in this game, but if the line is 14 to 16 1/2, I would look at it, and if the line is under 14, I would have to seriously consider taking Cal.
Maryland is picked to finish 5th or 6th in the very weak ACC Atlantic Division. They have 6 offensive palyers returning, and 4 defensive players coming back. Marylands ofensive line is not real good, and Cal has a dominant defensive line.
Remember this. A lot of Pac 10 teams have been snubbed out of BCS Bowls. This happened to Tedford in 2004. Tedford should have learned his lesson, which is to beat up on non-con teams to impress the voters. I will not go over 17 in this game, but if the line is 14 to 16 1/2, I would look at it, and if the line is under 14, I would have to seriously consider taking Cal.
I think that the west coast travel to east coast heavily favors east coast team; been proven many times..... I do not think it is as clear of an advantage going from east coast to west coast....
I am still liking your play here; will wait til closer to see where the value is before i play it though... But MD is not chopped liver....
I think that the west coast travel to east coast heavily favors east coast team; been proven many times..... I do not think it is as clear of an advantage going from east coast to west coast....
I am still liking your play here; will wait til closer to see where the value is before i play it though... But MD is not chopped liver....
I think that the west coast travel to east coast heavily favors east coast team; been proven many times..... I do not think it is as clear of an advantage going from east coast to west coast....
BOL this season
Why it does seem true, West Coast teams traveling East are only 5-3 ATS in the last 2 seasons. I haven't researched East Coast teams traveling West.
Games to pay attention to this season that involve a West Coast team traveling East include:
I think that the west coast travel to east coast heavily favors east coast team; been proven many times..... I do not think it is as clear of an advantage going from east coast to west coast....
BOL this season
Why it does seem true, West Coast teams traveling East are only 5-3 ATS in the last 2 seasons. I haven't researched East Coast teams traveling West.
Games to pay attention to this season that involve a West Coast team traveling East include:
Will probably pull the trigger on Cal in Week 1. On paper, they have everything going for them in this matchup, most importantly, the way I see it, a HUGE edge in the trenches--plus the revenge angle. Maryland is way, WAY down the list in my power ratings (which admittedly are a work-in-progress for me at this stage). That said, Maryland has burned me countless times the past two seasons, no matter which way I bet on them. It seems they always play to the level of their opponent, whether that is up or down.
Will probably pull the trigger on Cal in Week 1. On paper, they have everything going for them in this matchup, most importantly, the way I see it, a HUGE edge in the trenches--plus the revenge angle. Maryland is way, WAY down the list in my power ratings (which admittedly are a work-in-progress for me at this stage). That said, Maryland has burned me countless times the past two seasons, no matter which way I bet on them. It seems they always play to the level of their opponent, whether that is up or down.
There's no question that Cal is a fantastic week 1 candidate. But you do need to ask yourself how big of a line you're willing to bet. I'm hoping for a bargain...but I won't get it. What's it gonna be? 14.5? 17.5?
There's no question that Cal is a fantastic week 1 candidate. But you do need to ask yourself how big of a line you're willing to bet. I'm hoping for a bargain...but I won't get it. What's it gonna be? 14.5? 17.5?
I already took Illinois -2 1/2 when the futures came out. The line is up to 5 or 5 1/2 now. I also am watching LSU closely. If the line drops too muchfurther (-14 now) I will pull the trigger.
I already took Illinois -2 1/2 when the futures came out. The line is up to 5 or 5 1/2 now. I also am watching LSU closely. If the line drops too muchfurther (-14 now) I will pull the trigger.
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