Posted:
#26
FSU folds like a cheap suit. Louisville is Jekyll and Hyde. 1-2 on the week
I AM HUGE (12-15 YTD 44% ATS) WEEK 6 PICKS AND ANALYSIS
Posted:
#27
FRESNO ST +7.5 boise state
Boise State, a 7.5-point favorite, on the road, at night, in Fresno’s biggest home game in a decade, on Homecoming. That’s not a spread, that’s a Pornhub premium account on the house. Boise off the blue turf is like bad lighting on the porch in the Seinfeld episode. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games in California, and they’ve failed to cover each of their last four as a ranked team facing an unranked one. That’s not a trend, that’s erectile dysfunction with a logo.
Fresno State’s D is as stiff as an overdose of Cialis. They allow 16.4 points per game, best in the Pac-12 (yeah I know, the fraudulent Pac-12), and they’ve held their last four opponents to under 11 per game (139-43 in that stretch, which is a prison-yard beating). They have 14 sacks in five games (22nd nationally), 11 takeaways (4th in the country), and a +8 turnover margin. Maddux Madsen has thrown zero picks all year, which is like bragging you’ve never been caught while the cops are in your driveway. Even though the transfer portal makes handicapping a mess, you cannot overlook the fact that Fresno hammered Boise last year by the score of 30-7. No fear here, that's for sure.
And Boise’s walking wounded? Cam Bates is out. Starting guard Carson Rasmussen is out. Rasean Jones is questionable after a helmet-to-helmet hit, and Dylan Riley limped off last week. Their line is a screen door on a submarine, and they’re sending it against 2.8 sacks a game.
The Bronco D is the problem too. Boise is 138th in explosive plays allowed, and Fresno is 21st in creating them. Mandal needs one busted coverage and it’s a 60-yard bomb, delivered with the subtlety of a Vegas fat girl bachelorette party. Boise is also 87th in total defense and gives up 258 passing yards per game. Mandal is completing 66%, so he’ll be slinging it like a drunk uncle at a wedding.
Fresno is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, 7-1 ATS as the dog against Boise, 4-1 ATS this season, and has won three straight in the series. In other words...come here little brother..now go fetch me a beer from the fridge. Home dog magic means we don’t need a win, we need a touchdown and a hook from a Boise team that’s been gutted like a trout. Fresno has also won the first half in 8 of 9 home conference games.
Fresno State +7.5. I'm too old to stay up and watch it but Sunday morning I’ll be waiting with a smoke and a smirk.
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