Here are my picks for week 6....my pick is on the left....HOME TEAM IN CAPS....analysis to follow...which ones do you like?
jacksonville state -3 KENNESAW STATE
south alabama +1.5 ARKANSAS STATE
florida state +5.5 LOUISVILLE
indiana -9.5 NEBRASKA
BOWLING GREEN -7 sacramento state
ucla +11.5 OREGON
FRESNO STATE -7.5 boise state
jacksonville state -3 KENNESAW STATE
Wednesday night. CBS Sports Network. Jacksonville State -3 at Kennesaw State in the rematch of the CUSA Championship. Take a look at Kennesaw State's offense vs FBS teams and see this is a bigger fraud than George Santos.
KENNESAW STATE IS KENNESAW FAKE vs FBS COMPETITION
The Owls are 1-3 and if you take out the FCS cupcake beatdown, this team is averaging 10 POINTS PER GAME vs FBS competition while coughing up 30 POINTS PER GAME. That's not a football team, that's the Washington Generals defense vs the Harlem Globetrotters.
Overall stats lie to you like your ex. Yeah, KSU is only giving up 22.5 PPG on paper (61st), but they are 133RD IN THE NATION in red zone defense - allowing opponents to score on 100% of red zone trips. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT. That's more generous than Ticketmaster's dynamic pricing. If you get to the 20, you eat. And Jax State WILL get to the 20.
Turning back to the Kennesaw State offense, their QB threw for 129 yards last week vs Arkansas State in a 17-14 loss. 129 yards! In 2026! My Roomba puts up more yardage cleaning my apartment. Meanwhile the Gamecocks are playing bully ball. They've averaged 27 POINTS PER GAME in their last 3 contests. They just went into Middle Tennessee and won 23-13 while Caden Creel went full Joe Burrow meets Lamar Jackson - 19/27 for 241 and a TD passing, plus 12 carries for 119 and a TD rushing. The dude leads the team in BOTH passing (1,112 yards, 9 TDs) and rushing (375 yards).
And here's the cheat code: Jax State has completed 70% of its passes this season. Creel himself is at 69.0% on the year, 70.4% last game. He’s averaging 392.4 yards per game, 231.6 passing, 160.8 rushing. Kennesaw wants to run with Boogie Woods and Latrelle Murrell? Boogie against Jax State will be picking his nose and eating it. Maybe they will try to throw it? Good luck. Jax State's pass D is ELITE - 150.8 yards per game allowed, 10th in FBS. They are going to force Collins to beat them through the air for 4 quarters..it ain’t happening.
Jax State’s Coach Kelly has had extra days since Sept 26 to fix red zone and third down issues. He literally said they are 2 minutes away from being undefeated (Technically he’s kind of full of shit – no way they were beating North Dakota State in their opening game). But in their last 4 games, they should be undefeated. The Gamecocks are pissed they left points on the field like the Braves left runners in scoring position in the playoffs. They are coming to Fifth Third Stadium to collect rent.
KSU's red zone D is 0% stops. Jax State's offense is going to treat that red zone like it's an all you can eat Chinese food buffet. The Owls giving up 30 vs FBS, scoring 10 vs FBS, and giving up points every single red zone trip is a recipe for a double-digit loss. Gamecocks by double digits. Prediction = Jax State 34 - Kennesaw State 17.
There are some nice lines and totals this week HUGE..... I am a little suspicious but like you, I already have 7 plays....whoa!
I do like some of the SP+ variances between some of your picks but watching lines
I just came up for air and of course wanted to be dazzled with creative writing and logic and alas, I am viewing now and like what I see 
@Last2thirst
I love doing the analysis since I love watching college football. Two weekends in the sports books in AC and Foxwoods have given me some good eyeball data to do some fundamental analysis to juxtapose against the quantative analysis. And I did play college football myself. Having said all that, I'm 12-5 on the year, so there's that (lol) ...good luck this week.
correction. I’m 12-15 on the year.
Ya I AM, I wished I would have pursued my college pathway given with recruitment to two top schools but parents moved out of an area of primetime football immersing to my last 2 high school yrs of a top level basketball, track and v-ball school with no football so that set me back when I went to varsity camp...
Later in my 20's and 30's, I had a lot of aggression haha....and that is probably the football in me that got stifled because I fricken missed knocking people over or getting hit and getting up and laughing at defenders who posed around me haha .... I went to a camp in Michigan at 15 yrs old and had some conversations with potential U.S. avenues but truth was, my upbringing of farming and working at an early age with a lot of heavy lifting and my athleticism meant I was ahead of others and would not go into the weightroom....didn't need I thought..... but learned later that it could be an edge too to take athleticism to a whole new level
My heritage had a family line (very distant though) to Dick Butkus in Chicago with the Bears, so I was naturally into football and everything Bears growing up or USC, Illinois, Michigan or Penn St for my teams I wanted to follow
Established in 1995,
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