🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

Actually, on OFFENSE, Hawaii outscored Stanford 23 - 13 - and that was despite playing almost the entire 2nd half with an injured QB!

My preseason ratings had HAWAII rated 1/4 category better than Stanford - which suggests about 1.5 or 2 pts fav on a NEUTRAL FIELD......but Hawaii on home field would typically push my line to a heavier fav around -5, making the modest ML a good value bet...

Look at upcoming matchups, per my preseason ratings.

(these are not bets, just analysis)  You decide if there is value within...

I use 7 main tiers for RATING team strength among all 136 FBS teams:

          G+       G        M+        M        M-        W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

G/m+.....Boise -6
M+/m.....USF +6

M ..........Ohio +14
g/M+......Rutgers -14

W ..........JV St. +18.5
M...........UCF  -18.5

M- .........E.Carolina +12
M+ ........NC State -11.5  <<<<<  max -9.5 on alt-line preferred, or ML

M/M-......Wyoming -7.5
W ..........Akron +7.5

m+/M ....Buffalo +18.5  <<<<
M+ ........Minnesota -18

M- .........Mia-OH +17.5
G ..........Wisconsin -17.0  <<<< 

G ..........Nebraska -6.5
M+ .......Cincinnati +6.5

Woulda gone 3 - 1 had I bet them... 

thus an early indication my preseason ratings might be reasonably accurate...

....I hope 

Friday matchups, per MY ratings:

M- .........Appalachia -6.5 <<<<< ML ???
W ..........Charlotte +7.5

W- ........Kennesaw +17.5
M- .........Wake up    -17.5  <<<<< max -14 is best, but -17 should be ok

W ...........West Michigan +19.5
G/M+ ......Mich. State -19.0 <<< much improved! probable bet; -18 alt-line max

M+ ........Ga.TECH -3.5
M+/m.....Colorado +4.0  <<<<  ? 

G ......Auburn -2.5
G ......Baylor +2.5 <<<<<  virtually DEAD-EVEN! strongly prefer alt-line +3.5 or +3.0 for cushion crossing a key number, but Check Injuries!!!!!!!!!!

@fubah2

 i sprung for wake and mich state buying a point .  thx 

M/M- .....UNLV -10.5   <<<< potential LIVE bet if UNLV falls behind early to lower the odds
W .........Sam Houston +10.5

m-/w ....C.Michigan +12.0
M .........San Jose -11.5 <<<<< I always prefer a lower spread; alt-line -10 max looks good

@fubah2

bol this weekend 

@MrFreedo

  TY, sir ....and same for you!  

august 29th Friday 8pm eastern ...."thoughts" on Georgia tech vs Colorado ... (Georgia tech fan) EDIT i just saw #3631 post guess your leaning colo +4 at home 

@PUSSYGALORE333

 Yes.  LEAN only as it is not strong enough to warrant a pregame bet...

I may reconsider this ...

Reassessment of ACC:

G+ ......Clemson (G)
G ..........Miami (G)
G ..........Louisville (G)
G ..........SMU (g+/G)
G/M+ .....Ga.Tech (M+)   <<<< upgraded
M+ ........Pitts (m+/M)
M+ ........NC State (M)
M+ ........Florida St. (M-/W)
M+/M.....Duke (M+)
m+/M.....Va.Tech (M+)
m+/M.....N.Carolina (M/M-)
M ..........Virginia (M/m-)
M ..........Boston C. (M+/m)
M ..........Cal (M)
M/m- .... Syracuse (M+)
M- ........ Wake (M-)
M- ........ Stanford (M-/w)

Change...

G/M+ ....Ga.TECH -3.5
M+/m.....Colorado +4.0

Too close to call...

M/m- .... Syracuse   +14

G .........Tennessee -14  <<<< likely cover but alt-line for cushion!

W .....Fla. Atlantic+14.5
M .....Maryland -14.5 << No, too high; want -13 max; gotta use alt-line to drop BELOW key number!

I use 7 main tiers for RATING team strength among all 136 FBS teams:

          G+       G        M+        M        M-        W       W- 

 Whereby  G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

Generally speaking, with my tiers structure a full category separation is worth roughly 6 pts on a neutral field.  But this assumes the rating is smack dab in the middle of the tier.  Usuallly that is not the case.  An "M" rating for example (mediocre/middle) is my widest/LARGEST tier again this year, which is common.  Technically the median would be my 68th ranked team, give or take, and then that tier widens on both sides of that number to encompass all the mediocre/middlin teams.... kind of similar to a bell curve, in my capping. Same applies to each tier, although the very best and the very worst have fewer teams within them than any of the others.  It's an imperfect science but has served me well over the years. 

MARYLAND is actually a bit more than 2 full tiers separation from FAU (ie, more than 12 pts on a neutral field).....imo 

@finsterbaby

 TY, Fini!   Same for you! 

Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:

Good luck this season fubah 

 Hi DOC!! Good to see you back!

      Wishing YOU a winning season as well! 

@vc1028

 THANKS, VC!   And BoL to YOU this season too! 

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

Have a great year Fubah.

@mandy1

 Thanks mandy1! Wishing YOU a profitable season as well! 

@fubah2

 Fubah how would you compare ACC with the BIG12?  ACC seems top heavy,  and big12 balanced, not an easy matchup. Stanford wasn’t impressive…some nice ground yards about it. 

Have a season Duke 

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