jimmy - where can I find your analysis on the Bama/VT game? I've looked but covers search functions kinda suck.
I did find your post on wiseguys thread about Bama/VT where u think Bama -24 is a risky bet b/c Saban calls off the dogs and Hokies get a backdoor cover. Like with Michigan last year. I tend to agree. But then if Bama -24 is risky, how is Bama -18.5 a "Max Bet?" Shouldn't a "Max Bet" be reserved for games where the line is Bama -10 or so and you think they'll win by 30? All it takes is a TD here and there, Bama wins by 16 or 17. Curious for your thoughts.
BTW, I'm not calling you out. Just trying to make sense of this comment along side a Max Bet at Bama -19. I'm looking forward to reading your threads this entire fall. The hot avatar doesn't hurt either. 
Here's your post on wiseguy's thread a few months ago:
"Alabama should be able to pretty much name the score against Virginia Tech, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll cover 24. If Saban calls off the dogs in the 2nd half, the Hokies could conceivably get a backdoor cover here. There just isn't a whole lot of value on either side at 24."
In Post #1 I explained that I had not done a write-up on the game, but had posted extensively about the game in other threads. The post that you quote was one of my first after the 24-point line was initially released, and before I had looked at the game closely - something that really can't be done until fall camp begins. And as I'm sure you are well aware, the Hookies have had a tumultuous fall camp.
What I have said repeatedly about this game is that if I were setting the line on the game, I would make it 24. I have gone on to say that even at 24 I think Alabama still covers. Obviously 24 crosses several key numbers, so that would be a much more tenuous bet than -19.5 which is where the line sits right now.
Last season Alabama was favored by 13.5 against Michigan, and beat them by 27. But at the start of the 4th quarter the score was 34-14, so Michigan was actually within in striking distance of covering that game. They never really threatened to score again, and Alabama iced it with a 4th quarter touchdown. The point is that even as dominant as Alabama was in that game, Michigan was still essentially one lucky bounce away from potentially covering.
I think Alabama wins this game by at least 4 touchdowns, so I am supremely confident that Alabama will cover anything under 3. But this is gambling, and I cannot guarantee that Virginia Tech doesn't get a lucky break that narrows the margin of victory to 21 for example.
My take on the game in a nutshell is that I am very confident that Alabama will score in the 40s, and I don't believe Virginia Tech's offense can generate more than about 7 or 10 points. I think an absolute worst case scenario would be a score of something like 38-14 which would be a 24-point margin of victory.
Lastly, I would say do not bet more than you are comfortable betting. If you aren't comfortable betting Alabama at whatever the prevailing line is, then don't - or at least proceed cautiously. I don't tell people how much to bet. By posting, I am simply letting everyone know what I am doing. If you decide to mimic that, you do so at your own risk.
I just locked the North Carolina @ South Carolina 1st half UNDER in at 29.5 @ -105, and the Mississippi @ Vanderbilt 1st half UNDER in at 27.
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