Sorry if I missed it, but any thoughts on Clem/UGA?
I think Clemson wins the game, but I don't like it enough to bet it. Stayed tuned, however, because I'm about to add a 1st half UNDER play on the game. If I can get over a 5 TD 1st half line, that's just too good to pass up. I think the total is way inflated. Yes, both teams will score their share of points, but this total indicates neither team is capable of playing any defense whatsoever. that simply isn't so.
I think the total is about 10 points too high. I'm with Boom here. UNDER is the best play, and preferably the 1st half UNDER, particularly since the game has OT potential.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Sorry if I missed it, but any thoughts on Clem/UGA?
I think Clemson wins the game, but I don't like it enough to bet it. Stayed tuned, however, because I'm about to add a 1st half UNDER play on the game. If I can get over a 5 TD 1st half line, that's just too good to pass up. I think the total is way inflated. Yes, both teams will score their share of points, but this total indicates neither team is capable of playing any defense whatsoever. that simply isn't so.
I think the total is about 10 points too high. I'm with Boom here. UNDER is the best play, and preferably the 1st half UNDER, particularly since the game has OT potential.
hey bama in a 7pt teaser with LSU wow gotta get that a lock!!
You really don't need to tease either one of these games IMO. In fact I think you should consider playing the alternative line on both games at +300, or just parlay the 2 games straight up. Both of those would be better options than teasing.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bodogjoe:
hey bama in a 7pt teaser with LSU wow gotta get that a lock!!
You really don't need to tease either one of these games IMO. In fact I think you should consider playing the alternative line on both games at +300, or just parlay the 2 games straight up. Both of those would be better options than teasing.
I unloaded on Bama -17, and -18. I also think LSU -4 is just as good of a bet - I am also on the Noles and Ole Miss- just looking at Arkansas right now- Good luck!
We are most definitely on the same page bro.
I think a lot of people are underestimating LSU this season. They will be very, very good again. I have been raving about the Cam Cameron hire since it happened. I think he will be a huge asset in Mettenberger's development, and a huge asset for the LSU's offense in general. LSU's anemic offense under Studrawa has really held them back the past few seasons. I absolutely love the hire. LSU in Tuscaloosa this season scares me.
I never bet on new coaching staffs in week 1, but I am really warming up to the Arky play. At first blush, I liked Ooh La La, but the more I look at the game, the more I like Arky. I'm not going to play it because my plate is full at this point, but I really do think they cover.
Great to see you posting again this season!!!
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Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:
What's up Jimmy?
I unloaded on Bama -17, and -18. I also think LSU -4 is just as good of a bet - I am also on the Noles and Ole Miss- just looking at Arkansas right now- Good luck!
We are most definitely on the same page bro.
I think a lot of people are underestimating LSU this season. They will be very, very good again. I have been raving about the Cam Cameron hire since it happened. I think he will be a huge asset in Mettenberger's development, and a huge asset for the LSU's offense in general. LSU's anemic offense under Studrawa has really held them back the past few seasons. I absolutely love the hire. LSU in Tuscaloosa this season scares me.
I never bet on new coaching staffs in week 1, but I am really warming up to the Arky play. At first blush, I liked Ooh La La, but the more I look at the game, the more I like Arky. I'm not going to play it because my plate is full at this point, but I really do think they cover.
two starters for oklahoma suspended for ulm game. db and de
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Thanks for the update.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Brinksta:
two starters for oklahoma suspended for ulm game. db and de
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Bob Stoops
doesn't generally comment on first game suspensions, but he did
confirm two suspensions for the season opener against Louisiana Monroe
which could have a significant impact on the Oklahoma defense. - See
more at:
https://oklahoma.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1541107#sthash.XaGh2vPO.dpuf
Hey jimmy quick question what's your opinion on ole miss vandy total really looking at the under as a decent size play I know these teams went over last year but vandy needed a miracle winning td drive at the end
The 1st half UNDER is one of my plays (See Post #2) . I've kind of been waffling back and forth on whether I like Ole Miss -3 (or -2.5) better or the 1st half UNDER. I decided on the UNDER when the line jumped to -3.5, but the line has settled back down to -3 like I thought it would.
Go back and look at the box score from last season's game. Ole Miss completely stifled their running game, and I think they'll do the same this season. Vandy's defense largely shut down Ole Miss on the ground too. I think both defenses will play tough, at least in the first half. I definitely look for this game to stay UNDER the total.
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Quote Originally Posted by shakey12381:
Hey jimmy quick question what's your opinion on ole miss vandy total really looking at the under as a decent size play I know these teams went over last year but vandy needed a miracle winning td drive at the end
The 1st half UNDER is one of my plays (See Post #2) . I've kind of been waffling back and forth on whether I like Ole Miss -3 (or -2.5) better or the 1st half UNDER. I decided on the UNDER when the line jumped to -3.5, but the line has settled back down to -3 like I thought it would.
Go back and look at the box score from last season's game. Ole Miss completely stifled their running game, and I think they'll do the same this season. Vandy's defense largely shut down Ole Miss on the ground too. I think both defenses will play tough, at least in the first half. I definitely look for this game to stay UNDER the total.
Would like your opinion on USC -22, Fresno St 10, and Maryland -20.
I lived most of my life in the Washington DC area, and Maryland was essentially the only local college football program. Consequently, I have always followed them pretty closely.
First of all, I warn you I usually don't have a lot of success betting west coast teams. That's why I usually steer clear of them. Secondly, Maryland is a team that absolutely torched my azz last season.
That said, because it's the 1st week of the season, I have had ample time to handicap these games, and the only thing I really like is the FIU/Maryland 1st half UNDER.
USC should cover. I don't think hardly anyone would argue the point. But Kiffin is a complete buffoon, and I just simply cannot back him with hard-earned money. He always seems to find new creative ways to trick my money up. As a general rule, I think a Kiffin coached team should be faded, not backed.
I have looked at the the Rutgers/Fresno State game in great detail, and I could make a pretty good argument for backing either team. I lean Fresno, but not at the current price. Rutgers, on the other hand, is usually very gritty and tough at the point of attack (a huge problem for Fresno in their bowl game against SMU), and they typically play very tough defense. Therefore, they have a propensity to keep games very close. But I can't back the Scarlet Knights because they just have way too many question marks heading into week 1. This game screams stay away IMO.
I could write a mini novel on Maryland, but suffice to say, I really don't have much confidence their offense covering a 3 touchdown spread right out of the gate.
Ralph Friedgen was let go because ostensibly the team wasn't exciting enough, so in came Randy Edsall. But far from producing a more exciting product, he has put a team on the field that would make watching grass grown thrilling by comparison. That has the natives restless. In other words, Edsall feels a lot of pressure to light the scoreboard up this season, and a very undermanned FIU squad with a horrible coach seems like a great place to start. So Maryland is definitely going to go all out to score some points. How successful they'll be in week 1 remains to be seen. I'm not overly confident.
What I am confident about is that Maryland's defense should be a able to hold FIU's offense in check. So the combination of confidence in Maryland's defense, and skepticism concerning their offense has led me to take a liking to the 1st half UNDER.
I'm not sure I helped much, but best of luck to you this season nevertheless.
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Quote Originally Posted by SoonerAction:
Would like your opinion on USC -22, Fresno St 10, and Maryland -20.
I lived most of my life in the Washington DC area, and Maryland was essentially the only local college football program. Consequently, I have always followed them pretty closely.
First of all, I warn you I usually don't have a lot of success betting west coast teams. That's why I usually steer clear of them. Secondly, Maryland is a team that absolutely torched my azz last season.
That said, because it's the 1st week of the season, I have had ample time to handicap these games, and the only thing I really like is the FIU/Maryland 1st half UNDER.
USC should cover. I don't think hardly anyone would argue the point. But Kiffin is a complete buffoon, and I just simply cannot back him with hard-earned money. He always seems to find new creative ways to trick my money up. As a general rule, I think a Kiffin coached team should be faded, not backed.
I have looked at the the Rutgers/Fresno State game in great detail, and I could make a pretty good argument for backing either team. I lean Fresno, but not at the current price. Rutgers, on the other hand, is usually very gritty and tough at the point of attack (a huge problem for Fresno in their bowl game against SMU), and they typically play very tough defense. Therefore, they have a propensity to keep games very close. But I can't back the Scarlet Knights because they just have way too many question marks heading into week 1. This game screams stay away IMO.
I could write a mini novel on Maryland, but suffice to say, I really don't have much confidence their offense covering a 3 touchdown spread right out of the gate.
Ralph Friedgen was let go because ostensibly the team wasn't exciting enough, so in came Randy Edsall. But far from producing a more exciting product, he has put a team on the field that would make watching grass grown thrilling by comparison. That has the natives restless. In other words, Edsall feels a lot of pressure to light the scoreboard up this season, and a very undermanned FIU squad with a horrible coach seems like a great place to start. So Maryland is definitely going to go all out to score some points. How successful they'll be in week 1 remains to be seen. I'm not overly confident.
What I am confident about is that Maryland's defense should be a able to hold FIU's offense in check. So the combination of confidence in Maryland's defense, and skepticism concerning their offense has led me to take a liking to the 1st half UNDER.
I'm not sure I helped much, but best of luck to you this season nevertheless.
I'm going to add a couple of plays, and downgrade my Washington State/Auburn 1st half UNDER play from a "Best Bet" to a regular bet. I have continued to cap this game, and have some concerns with Auburn's ability to defense Washington State's offense.
I'm also going to add the Georgia/Clemson 1st half UNDER provided I can get it at more than 5 TDs.
Lastly, I'm going to add the Alabama -25 on the alternative line @ +300. Again, none of these lines have actually been posted online, so they are estimates. I will repost my entire card when I have actual lines.
Saturday Afternoon Games:
Alabama -25 @ +300 vs. Virginia Tech *** Alternative Line ***
Saturday Evening Games:
Downgraded from "Best Bet"
Washington State @ Auburn UNDER 29.5 (1st Half)
Adding:
Georgia vs. Clemson UNDER 36 (1st Half)
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I'm going to add a couple of plays, and downgrade my Washington State/Auburn 1st half UNDER play from a "Best Bet" to a regular bet. I have continued to cap this game, and have some concerns with Auburn's ability to defense Washington State's offense.
I'm also going to add the Georgia/Clemson 1st half UNDER provided I can get it at more than 5 TDs.
Lastly, I'm going to add the Alabama -25 on the alternative line @ +300. Again, none of these lines have actually been posted online, so they are estimates. I will repost my entire card when I have actual lines.
Saturday Afternoon Games:
Alabama -25 @ +300 vs. Virginia Tech *** Alternative Line ***
1. Those who talk big behind the computer and claim to be the best capper in the world but have no posts to back it up.
2. Those that come in here and put up a few good weeks and then people think they are the greatest so they follow them and then they crash and burn.
3. There are an elite few that know this game inside and out and have produced great results year over year with threads to back up each play. I can think of a few that fit this and I would consider JimmydaFreak to be the leader for NCAAF.
I began sportsbetting a few years ago and have followed Jimmy's threads week in and week out. Because of that, my sportsbook balance has been in the black since I began betting. I don't think many can say that so just wanted to give a shout out to Jimmy as I truly appreciate what he brings to Covers and this forum would not be the same without his knowledge.
Good luck this year and I can promise that your plays will be in my Pending Bets section!
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There are 3 types of people on Covers:
1. Those who talk big behind the computer and claim to be the best capper in the world but have no posts to back it up.
2. Those that come in here and put up a few good weeks and then people think they are the greatest so they follow them and then they crash and burn.
3. There are an elite few that know this game inside and out and have produced great results year over year with threads to back up each play. I can think of a few that fit this and I would consider JimmydaFreak to be the leader for NCAAF.
I began sportsbetting a few years ago and have followed Jimmy's threads week in and week out. Because of that, my sportsbook balance has been in the black since I began betting. I don't think many can say that so just wanted to give a shout out to Jimmy as I truly appreciate what he brings to Covers and this forum would not be the same without his knowledge.
Good luck this year and I can promise that your plays will be in my Pending Bets section!
I understand. When I first capped this game, the total was a bit higher. I was looking for a total north of 28. Right now it looks like the number will be right at the 28-point mark. I will bet it at 28, but won't go lower than that.
thorpe, look at how Spurrier has played Chad Morris' up tempo offense the past two years. South Carolina's game plan was to grind it out on the ground and keep Clemson's offense off the field. USC rushed the ball a whopping 45 times for 134 yards, and dominated TOP 2 to 1. USC kept Clemson way below their average plays per game, and held them to 17 points.
In the 2011 game there was a 15 minute differential in TOP. In that game USC ran 73 plays (53 of which were rushing plays) to 60 by Clemson, and held Clemson to 13 points,
I think we'll see Spurrier will blow the dust off his Clemson's game plan, and attack UNC in a similar fashion. I see USC winning this game by a score of something like 31-17.
Amen to that, plus with all the change for the UNC o line and rb I see them struggling a la UGA last year.
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I understand. When I first capped this game, the total was a bit higher. I was looking for a total north of 28. Right now it looks like the number will be right at the 28-point mark. I will bet it at 28, but won't go lower than that.
thorpe, look at how Spurrier has played Chad Morris' up tempo offense the past two years. South Carolina's game plan was to grind it out on the ground and keep Clemson's offense off the field. USC rushed the ball a whopping 45 times for 134 yards, and dominated TOP 2 to 1. USC kept Clemson way below their average plays per game, and held them to 17 points.
In the 2011 game there was a 15 minute differential in TOP. In that game USC ran 73 plays (53 of which were rushing plays) to 60 by Clemson, and held Clemson to 13 points,
I think we'll see Spurrier will blow the dust off his Clemson's game plan, and attack UNC in a similar fashion. I see USC winning this game by a score of something like 31-17.
Amen to that, plus with all the change for the UNC o line and rb I see them struggling a la UGA last year.
Yea Bama -10 1st half would be a pounder most def. I think the books will no better than to have it that low tho even in respect to the -19.5. I will also take the alt spread at anything above -24 as well. I agree that Vtech has a potential to get shutout but I see it 41-3 or maybe 41-6. If they cross that TD line with the football I'd be surprised.
Any new guys, just know, when Jimmy speaks, listen he knows his stuff
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Yea Bama -10 1st half would be a pounder most def. I think the books will no better than to have it that low tho even in respect to the -19.5. I will also take the alt spread at anything above -24 as well. I agree that Vtech has a potential to get shutout but I see it 41-3 or maybe 41-6. If they cross that TD line with the football I'd be surprised.
Any new guys, just know, when Jimmy speaks, listen he knows his stuff
Thanks for the update.
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