Posted:
#26
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Fox's **Final 5 BOWL GAMES - Picks and Analysis**
Posted:
#40
Big game tonight, two stud Qb, 2 coaches that are very familiar with each other, and two teams that are familiar with each other. Being played in Jerry's world on a Friday night! Doesnt get much better than this folks. Analysis and picks below, including some bonus NCAAB and NBA action.
COTTON BOWL
$1000 Texas A&M -3
Tough game to cap here but I'm backing the heisman winner and the team that I think wants to win slightly more. There is still doubt in my mind that Oklahoma will put as big of an intense and inspired effort here as the Aggies. I know the Sooners have had plenty of time to get rid of the "we got screwed" feeling of not getting a BCS at large bid, but the recent domination of NIU could have brought up some bad feel with a couple of days left to prepare for the Aggies. A&M to me has a promising future and they are riding high with their new coach and phenom freshman QB. Oklahoma is a team they would love to make a statement against and put a signature win at the end of a very good season. Although Landry Jones put up stellar numbers once again this year, he didn't come through when it mattered and regressed a little from a year ago. He himself had Heisman and national championship goals at the beginning of the year and it has to be a little disappointing that he's ended up in this game tonight. Like I said, I'm not totally sure Oklahoma will have a minor letdown or not, but I've got to take it into consideration.
Now let's break this game down a little. First are these two offenses. Both have stud Qb to lead their team,but I think Texas A&M will have more success tonight than the Sooners when all is said and done. For me, it comes down to Manziel ability to use his feet and extend plays, something that Landry Jones can't do. The knock on Jones is forcing him off his spot. Once he has to move laterally or leave the pocket, his accuracy and decision making ability decrease. Look for A&M to force Jones to move and be uncomfortable early in this one. If they fail to get much pressure on Jones, it could be a long night for their defense. I do think Texas A&M has a slight advantage with their run defense as well. As I said before it will be hard for the Sooners to account for the playmaking ability of Manziel. If you can force the Sooners to be one dimensional, their efficiency on offense tends to decrease. The Sooners have struggled at times stopping the run this year and if A&M can sustain long drives, its going to be tough for the Sooners offense to maintain that consistency. Both teams have a go to WR and will likely focus on stopping them. Oklahoma does have a little more depth at the WR position tho.
As I said earlier both teams will be very familiar with each other coaching wise and personnel wise. They have split each of the last 2 years. What I have seen that stood out in those games the last two years tho, is Texas A&M ability to limit Landry Jones. Im sure they will look at the tape from those games and do similar things they did the last 2 years against him. In those two games Jones was 54 of 99 passing with 545 yards with only 1 TD and 1 Int. As you can see his completion % was less than stellar and he failed to get to 300 yards in either game. A&M could've won last years game as well, as they out gained OK. 4 Turnovers for the Aggies was too much to recover from in the end.
I like the Aggies defense here to be able to limit the run game of Oklahoma and make them Too one dimensional on offense. If Texas A&M can force Jones into long 3rd down conversions, their chances of getting off the field will increase greatly. On the other side I don't think the Sooners will have an answer to the running game or playmaking ability of Manziel, and he proves why he's the Heisman winner tonight. As they always do, Turnovers and special teams will likely have a big effect on the outcomes, especially if either team generates points from it, as we saw last night. BIG GAME on a big stage, but I like my money with an A&M team that's had a chip on its shoulder all year and looks poised to be a force in the SEC for years to come. Texas A&M wins 38-30
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